Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[bn2cardz]

I lean more prewar, but I have kept up with the modern as well.

This last year I hear a lot about Kris Bryant and see the prices of his cards flying past other players. I can't help but feel it is too soon to think he is great and maybe even overrated.

In his first season he already ranks 8th in most strikeouts in a single season with 199. His SLG didn't break 500 (.488).

If you look at Ryan Howard, another person that ties for 8th in single season strikeouts (not in his rookie year), his overall rookie season stats are better.

Ryan Howard didn't have a full season until his 3rd season in. So the only advantage Bryant has over Howard is youth.

Howard's first three season splits:
.304/.399/.624 with OPS 1.024 - OPS+155

Bryant's splits
.275/.369/.488 with OPS .858 - OPS+ 133

I know it may be easy to compare him to Harper's rookie season, but Harper never had the SO ratio Bryant had while still putting up a similar slash line. Even then Harper is still younger than Bryant with 4 seasons under his belt before his 23rd birthday.

It seems to me that it is very presumptuous that Bryant is going to be a top 5 player, or that he already is. With a stirkeout ratio like his he would need a better Slugging percentage. The real problem is I don't see SO going down while his Slugging goes up. Pitchers know he uses an uppercut swing so they will pitch to him with that knowledge and he will follow the path of other strikeout kings like Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn.

I could be wrong and missing something if you see something in his playing worth the praise/value he gets among collectors let me know. Or if you just don't think 199 SO in a rookie season is a big deal let me know that too.

[packs]

Don't know what the future holds for Bryant but everyone hyped Puig. The guy had 66 K's vs 72 hits last year and looked awful. Then again, Trout strikes out a ton too.

My humble opinion: Bryant ends up a good player, never great. He will surpass Strasburg's lame duck career but neither will live up to the price of their rookie cards.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

Don't know what the future holds for Bryant but everyone hyped Puig. The guy had 66 K's vs 72 hits last year and looked awful. Then again, Trout strikes out a ton too.

My humble opinion: Bryant ends up a good player, never great. He will surpass Strasburg's lame duck career but neither will live up to the price of their rookie cards.

I don't think that Bryant will crash and burn, but I just don't see him as a top tier player. His card prices just don't reflect the uncertainty that he left on the table with 199 SO (with 77BB) in 650 PA.

[sbfinley]

No, he's not overrated. The strikeouts are an issue that he'll have to rectify, but I project him as a superstar for the next decade plus. Look at his stat lines from Low A to the majors, that kind of quick movement from class to class with little to no regression or struggle just doesn't happen. As for the strikeouts, he will spend the next 4-5 years in the lineup surrounded by Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber, and Soler (who I would gamble could be the best of the bunch) which will mean plenty of pitches to hit. The bust talk was all the rage with Harper last off season and he only turned out an MVP season. Give the kid some time.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

No, he's not overrated. The strikeouts are an issue that he'll have to rectify, but I project him as a superstar for the next decade plus. Look at his stat lines from Low A to the majors, that kind of quick movement from class to class with little to no regression or struggle just doesn't happen. As for the strikeouts, he will spend the next 4-5 years in the lineup surrounded by Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber, and Soler (who I would gamble could be the best of the bunch) which will mean plenty of pitches to hit. The bust talk was all the rage with Harper last off season and he only turned out an MVP season. Give the kid some time.

Again, Harper isn't even 23 yet. It makes sense to give him time to adjust. Harper's BABIP is still lower than Brant's. (Bryant .378 vs Harper's.369). Bryant's going to have to keep his BABIP very high to compensate for his high SO. Bryant didn't just have a high Strike Out year. He now holds the record for most SO by a rookie. So unless he can manage to put the ball in play more as his BABIP starts to average out as he gets older than he will be just another Ryan Howard.

Think about it this way of the Top 30 BABIP in 2015 he ranks 5th, but his BA of .275 is second lowest to Anthony Gose's .254 and his BABIP was only .352 with a 27.1% SO% (compared to Bryant's 30.6%). With such a high BABIP his average should reflect it, but it doesn't. I really think the most comparable rookie year of the last 15 years would be Mark Reynold's 2007 season.

Mark Reynold's:
Games:111 PA:414 HR:17 R:62 RBI:62 SB:0 BB%:8.9% K%31.2 % BABIP:.378 AVG:.279 OBP:.349 SLG:.495

Kris Bryant:
Games:151 PA:650 HR:26 R:87 RBI:99 SB:13 BB%11.8 % K%30.6 % BABIP:.378 AVG:.275 OBP:.369 SLG:.488

He ranks 23rd of all rookies since 2000 in the highest K%, but 6th with players with more than 100 games in their RY. There is only one with more games and that is Michael Taylor.

The only stat that seems to make him look great is that he Ranks 3rd in WAR for Rookies since 2000.

I just can't fathom putting so many eggs in that basket with just one season under his belt and with so many negatives in his batting.

[packs]

Bryant had more strikeouts than hits last year and still managed to hit .275. But that will not happen consistently and we've seen what a stable BABIP did to Austin Jackson, who has floundered, though he isn't the hitter Bryant is.

If Bryant can manage to still hit above 270 he'll be a super star. But if he can't, he'll probably drop down to the 230 / 240 range and be a Mark Reynolds.

[meatloaf]

Originally Posted by packs

Don't know what the future holds for Bryant but everyone hyped Puig.

+1

Also, baseball over hypes prospects more than any other sport IMO. I would put my money in other sports.

[quinnsryche]

I think any player with less than 3-4 years experience is over-hyped. Just too soon to know. Also, any time a Cubs, Red Sox or Yankees player has even a decent year, he's the next greatest thing (ESPECIALLY the Cubs). Anyone remember Shawon Dunston, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Starlin Castro or the hundreds of other prospects that never lived up to the hype? Not saying Bryant will or won't, you just have to be very careful as it seems 99% of the next greatest player never is.

[packs]

To be fair, Starlin Castro is a 3 X All Star before the age of 25. That's pretty good.

[quinnsryche]

When he's not asleep in the field. If he's a 3X All Star that doesn't say much for NL shortstops. Joe Maddon could only take 1 year of his pathetic attitude before he had him shipped out.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by quinnsryche

I think any player with less than 3-4 years experience is over-hyped. Just too soon to know. Also, any time a Cubs, Red Sox or Yankees player has even a decent year, he's the next greatest thing (ESPECIALLY the Cubs). Anyone remember Shawon Dunston, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Starlin Castro or the hundreds of other prospects that never lived up to the hype? Not saying Bryant will or won't, you just have to be very careful as it seems 99% of the next greatest player never is.

Phil Plantier and Kevin Maas come immediately to mind. Corey Patterson for the Cubs as well.

[Laxcat]

Don't forget Gary Scott and Todd Benzinger

[jason.1969]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Phil Plantier and Kevin Maas come immediately to mind. Corey Patterson for the Cubs as well.

And Cubs fans may still have their huge stacks of 89 UD Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith high numbers!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

[the 'stache]

Overrated? Bryant was 5th in the NL in win probability added, and only twelve hitters in the NL had a higher slugging pct than Bryant did in his rookie season. He tied Andrew McCutchen at .488, and McCutchen was 5th in the NL MVP vote. A 5.9 WAR as a rookie is outstanding. And while he needs to bring his strikeouts down, he walked 77 times. Only nine guys in the NL walked more. For a guy with his power potential to put up a .369 OBP as a rookie is a real positive sign.

There's no way I could say that Kris Bryant is overrated. He more than held his own at the Major League level. We'll see where he goes from here.

[packs]

Yes but how do you feel about how lucky he got last season? His BABIP was 378. He struck out more times than he got a hit and hit 270 with a 378 BABIP. If that BABIP comes down to normal levels, without improvement he will hit in the 230 to 240 range.

[AGuinness]

Good article on comps to Bryant's rookie year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/compi...rookie-season/

Spoiler: his comps don't exactly jump off the page (but he's young, so its ok).

[pokerplyr80]

In terms of the cards, it amazes me how much people spend on rookie cards of these guys, and not just in baseball. I don't know how many hold their initial value over time, but my guess would be around 5% or less. I think only a couple of guys in a given era will truly live up to the hype, and the 10-50k people are spending on these 1/1s and superfractor type cards.

[Canofcorn]

Kris Bryant is a freaking stud. Add to that he plays in Chicago. His cards are never going to cool off. Same with Trouty, Harper, and Correa. The Mount Rushmore of the new era

[the 'stache]

Curious if opinions on Bryant being "overhyped" have changed any. Last night he was 5 for 5 with 3 home runs, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs. For the season, he's hitting .278 with 59 runs scored, 19 doubles, 21 home runs, 57 RBI. He leads the league in run scored, home runs, and is third in RBI. He's slashing .367/.567/.934. His 3.6 WAR is the 7th highest of any position player in baseball.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Curious if opinions on Bryant being "overhyped" have changed any. Last night he was 5 for 5 with 3 home runs, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs. For the season, he's hitting .278 with 59 runs scored, 19 doubles, 21 home runs, 57 RBI. He leads the league in run scored, home runs, and is third in RBI. He's slashing .367/.567/.934. His 3.6 WAR is the 7th highest of any position player in baseball.

As I stated in the post previous to this one in April, he changed his approach to the plate and was showing signs of improvement.
I believe that if he can maintain this approach he will be very good, but that still doesn't change my perspective that people were ignoring real issues in his rookie season. I think this is the real season that shows who he is as a player, and he has proven himself as someone that can adapt for the better. If he hadn't adapted and changed his approach we weren't going to see anything better than we had the first month of this season. Changing your approach at the plate is a very hard thing to do, but he has been doing it for a couple of months now and seems to be getting better.

He now has a .304 BABIP compared to his 2015 .378. This helps illustrate that he has drastically changed to be able to maintain the BA he had last year while adding on to his SLG numbers.

So my answer is yes and no. I believe just looking at his RC season he was overrated, as many RCs are. Yet his ability to adapt shows me that he is no longer overrated but may be the real deal going forward.

[packs]

I think he is putting together a good season and making some adjustments at the plate that are definitely improving his game. You can't argue with the production. I still think he's striking out too much.