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  #11  
Old 06-19-2018, 05:30 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
Garth Guibord
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Harper's really not doing himself any favors in his walk year. Would you pay 400 million for a guy hitting 212?


On the flip side, I think this production may be his floor, and while the Mendoza line stinks, he still has an OPS that’s currently 20 percent above the average player. And he is just 25. There will be teams that will step up and pay the man some big bucks this winter.


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  #12  
Old 06-19-2018, 11:13 PM
dgo71 dgo71 is offline
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Interesting conversation on XM today, basically saying the difference between a guy like Trout and Harper isn't the talent, its the bad days. A bad day for Trout is 0-for-3 with a walk and a steal. A bad day for Harper is 0-for-5 with 3 Ks. Also, Trout has not gone more than 2 consecutive games without getting on base at any point in his MLB CAREER. Harper has slumps that last for a month. The host (a former player whose name escapes me) had the opinion that Harper isn't worth a huge contract when his production disappears with volatility and regularity.
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  #13  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:28 AM
packs packs is online now
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Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
On the flip side, I think this production may be his floor, and while the Mendoza line stinks, he still has an OPS that’s currently 20 percent above the average player. And he is just 25. There will be teams that will step up and pay the man some big bucks this winter.
A team will do it but I don't think it's a great idea if you're not already a winner. Chris Carter isn't going to turn a team around, even if his name is Bryce Harper and he plays better defense.

Last edited by packs; 06-20-2018 at 09:29 AM.
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  #14  
Old 06-20-2018, 08:14 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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A team will do it but I don't think it's a great idea if you're not already a winner. Chris Carter isn't going to turn a team around, even if his name is Bryce Harper and he plays better defense.
I'm not saying I want my team to sign him, but his flaws seem super obvious now since he's slumping. I don't think his market will be limited to one team, but a bunch will see the upside: if Chris Carter is his FLOOR, plus he's going to bounce back from this season, plus there's room for him to improve because he's so young, there's a big contract out there for him.
I think wins (via WAR) are costing roughly $8 million in free agency at this point. Maybe Boras will pursue a short-term or opt-out laden deal, but if they are gunning for $400 mil, a 10-year deal at $40 mil a year would be an expectation of about 5 wins per year. I think he's at 1 win so far this year, even slumping he'll likely hit 2 wins. With his pedigree (super prospect, MVP, etc.) and the other factors (age, teams flush with money, etc.), even after this season a $400 million contract isn't off the table, I don't think. I think it wouldn't be tough for a team to argue that 5 WAR a season out of Harper is a reasonable expectation.
I just don't want my favorite team doing it (and they won't)...
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  #15  
Old 06-21-2018, 09:34 AM
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clydepepper clydepepper is offline
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I'm not saying I want my team to sign him, but his flaws seem super obvious now since he's slumping. I don't think his market will be limited to one team, but a bunch will see the upside: if Chris Carter is his FLOOR, plus he's going to bounce back from this season, plus there's room for him to improve because he's so young, there's a big contract out there for him.
I think wins (via WAR) are costing roughly $8 million in free agency at this point. Maybe Boras will pursue a short-term or opt-out laden deal, but if they are gunning for $400 mil, a 10-year deal at $40 mil a year would be an expectation of about 5 wins per year. I think he's at 1 win so far this year, even slumping he'll likely hit 2 wins. With his pedigree (super prospect, MVP, etc.) and the other factors (age, teams flush with money, etc.), even after this season a $400 million contract isn't off the table, I don't think. I think it wouldn't be tough for a team to argue that 5 WAR a season out of Harper is a reasonable expectation.
I just don't want my favorite team doing it (and they won't)...


As much as any factor other than his own poor performance IMO, the 'rise' of Aaron Judge in NY along with the addition of Stanton have lessened the potential record-breaking deal Harper would receive.

With the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox riding high right now, the Dodgers may bee the only landing spot for him.

In a more perfect world (aka without Boras), a highly-incentive-laden contract would be appropriate and possible...too bad for whatever 'sap' shells out...come to think of it...that kind of thinking would bring the Rangers back into the picture...or even the Orioles. A one-for-one trade for Machado???

We live in crazy times...anything is possible...
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  #16  
Old 06-21-2018, 11:19 AM
packs packs is online now
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The Nationals aren't even going to blink either because they don't need the guy when you have Juan Soto already on the team and Victor Robles at AAA. Harper has almost no leverage now that he's playing so poorly. The Nationals will let him walk, he'll have no trade value to a contender while he hits under 220 and at worst the teams who do want to sign him can opt to wait him out over the off season like they did to players this year.
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  #17  
Old 06-21-2018, 12:12 PM
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The worst of it is, nobody wants to buy my PSA 10 Finest Red Refractor.
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  #18  
Old 06-21-2018, 12:25 PM
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clydepepper clydepepper is offline
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The worst of it is, nobody wants to buy my PSA 10 Finest Red Refractor.


You have company there...went all in - D'OT!


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  #19  
Old 06-21-2018, 03:17 PM
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Harper is not Trout's equal, but he's a lot better than his results so far this season. His problem is largely driven by his batting average on balls in play. He's got a .204 mark this year, versus .314 for his career. Now, a hitter's batting average on balls in play is not as predictable as a pitcher's, but players do tend to regress towards their own career norms. Sure, a player's "true" batting average on balls in play can change - foot or leg injuries, a re-worked swing, lots of things can do it - but there's still a trend there. So it's very likely that he's going to get at least some of that BABIP back.

Also, his low WAR total this season is partly the result of very poor fielding numbers. He's at -7 Rfield for the year so far. He's a better fielder than that, you shouldn't expect him to be that bad going forward.

I doubt that $400 million is on the table any more. Even if he's better than this, you can't ignore performance that is poor and recent (the worst combination). But someone is going to give him a lot of money, because all of the signs indicate that he is better than his recent performance would indicate.
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  #20  
Old 06-21-2018, 04:33 PM
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An OPS hovering around 800 does seem to be his natural ability though. Aside from his MVP season he hasn't topped 854 in any other season. I wouldn't pay 400 million for that.

Last edited by packs; 06-21-2018 at 04:34 PM.
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