When was the end of Junk era?

[Rookiemonster]

Your right Steve the first game used cards came out in 1996.( got it twisted )

I feel it never stopped for this reason.
Let's say a topps chrome card of Bryce Harper for example.
The regular chrome who knows how many they make of that. Then there are
The different color variations. Who really knows of the final number of topps chrome Bryce Harper.

As in the 80s and 90s I'm sure some real gems will shine through in years to come. But if you think a base topps 2015 Mike trout will be like owning a mantle in 50 years, well I highly doubt it will be anywhere near. It will more likely be like owing a 1994 topps ken Griffey Jr.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Rookiemonster

Your right Steve the first game used cards came out in 1996.( got it twisted )

I feel it never stopped for this reason.
Let's say a topps chrome card of Bryce Harper for example.
The regular chrome who knows how many they make of that. Then there are
The different color variations. Who really knows of the final number of topps chrome Bryce Harper.

As in the 80s and 90s I'm sure some real gems will shine through in years to come. But if you think a base topps 2015 Mike trout will be like owning a mantle in 50 years, well I highly doubt it will be anywhere near. It will more likely be like owing a 1994 topps ken Griffey Jr.

That's pretty much correct for most stuff. If the culture ever moves past the current one where it's chasing inserts in whatever the "hot" new product is and very limited collecting - Player collecting, rookie collecting, then it might change.

One thing that's interesting is that with numbered cards and stated odds it's possible to get a reasonable idea of the press run of the base sets, and sometimes the non- numbered inserts too. It's tough on some of them, because of the different products - Retail, hobby, blaster, bonus packs, etc with different odds. plus there's however many additional in factory sets.

Some of the better retail sets don't have shockingly large print runs for the base cards.

The stuff I think could have a chance is mostly the retail exclusives, like the Gypsy Queen special SP minis that are in Blasters, maybe exclusive to Target. (My local Wal-Mart either doesn't do cards or hides them well. And I haven't checked Toys R Us yet)

Even if they're just in blasters in general, that's a 50 card set that essentially comes in a $20 pack.

Steve B

[JustinD]

Personally, without a change in collecting philosophy by modern collectors I think it's going strong and unlikely to end soon.

The obsession with "hits" and serialed cards has killed set collecting. Until I stop seeing collectors opening packs and throwing the commons out as garbage, it's still junk wax time.

Crazy that these packs cost no less than 5 bucks and up into the hundreds and people treat the commons like 80's Topps contest cards.

[nat]

My antipathy towards modern cards is due to the fact that they depend on manufactured scarcity to have a market. It's made buying baseball cards basically into buying lotto tickets. And I don't buy those either.

Another (related) problem, which really connects modern cards to the 80s-90s period, is that cards are manufactured specifically to be collectibles. The first sign that this was a thing was when you could buy complete sets straight from the manufacturer (or the retailer). Vintage cards were children's toys, these aren't. One of the charms of buying a '33 Goudey is in thinking about how somebody's dad indulged his son with a penny to buy a pack of gum - even though they were stuck in the midst of the Depression - and that this card may have been that kid's prize possession. When you buy a modern card, you don't get that. Rather, you get to think about how the marketing department determined that adding more foil would appeal to middle aged men hoping to turn a profit on baseball cards, thereby pushing the demand curve on their product a little further to the right.

[rats60]

When you see unopened boxes selling for less than factory cost soon after release, you realize that we are still in the junk wax era. Junk wax=Overproduction. I doubt the card companies will ever learn.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by rats60

When you see unopened boxes selling for less than factory cost soon after release, you realize that we are still in the junk wax era. Junk wax=Overproduction. I doubt the card companies will ever learn.

That's partly the fault of the dealers. So many of them in the late 89's- early 90's were started on a shoestring, and tried to carry everything. With so many sets there was always something new coming out in a couple weeks, so they had a fairly short window of time to get the currently "hot" stuff sold. The stuff that was really wanted sold fast and went up, the rest sold ok but stuck around as dead inventory. To get the next thing, a dealer had to pay the card co and make a minimum order. The ones that had money could absorb the cost of the slower moving product, the ones with no money eventually began selling at a loss to "raise cash" for the next set.

And that led to lots of collectors buying stuff only on closeout.

A viscious circle that slowed as the unfunded washed out, but really hasn't ended.

Steve B

[bravos4evr]

It feels like the "junk era" still with the addition of the "hit" as the prime directive. Box breaks have become very popular as people pay way too much $$$ hoping to get a chance at one hit out of a few box openings but still saving money relative to buying their own boxes/cases. Of the new stuff, I myself only collect Bowman draft autos and then only Braves prospects. The idea of trying to chase these hits for my team sounds both expensive and wasteful.

Vintage will never crash and burn, the future prospects of these "hits?" well, I see lots of them going for only a few dollars on a facebook auction group I follow, it seems like, eventually, these hits are going to end up priced like commons were before.

[egri]

I think it will stop when the card companies start putting effort in to their product again. The Topps and Bowman sets from the rivalry years were and still are works of art. Even after the rivalry ended, you can still take a 1960s or 1970s Topps card and hold it up as an example of postwar era pop art. Nowadays, they take a photo, wave their photoshop wands, and call it a card (the low point, IMO, is the 2007 Topps set). The Heritage and A&G sets aren't much better; that's just ripping off someone else's design. There's no originality anymore.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by egri

The Topps and Bowman sets from the rivalry years were and still are works of art. Even after the rivalry ended, you can still take a 1960s or 1970s Topps card and hold it up as an example of postwar era pop art.

So true!

This is where my art collector and card collector find a great common ground. Also, it's the reason I have outlandishly overpaid for color shift errors as they often exaggerate the "pop art" aesthetic.

[Bill77]

Looking back at the last set I really tried to collect which was 2002 Topps, it reminded me of 1988, where the more packs I bought the more packs were available. I think 2001 was just as bad just to promote not only the 50th anniversary of Topps, but also Ichiro joining MLB.

I have a feeling that after Ichiro retires a lot of unopened 2001 boxes and packs are going to start coming out of the wood work just to cash in on his legacy.

[insidethewrapper]

It's considered junk if : Supply > Demand

Not Junk if : Demand > Supply.

Doesn't matter if low or high production !!! If only 1 card is produced but nobody wants it, it is junk. If 1 million is produced and 2 million people want it, it's not junk.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

2016 and counting...

[hysell]

I would say all company's ,That put that junk {UV} coating on both sides of the cards!Fronts, I get,but the backs?WHY!!!1994 to around 2004 are all stuck together like bricks & I would not dare buy a unopened box in those years!Good for a cold night ,if you need some heat from a fire!Other than that , just junk!Rob!

[Rich Klein]

If you do need to take care of those cards which are stuck; put them into a freezer. That will take care of all the sticking issues.

[seanofjapan]

I live in Japan and collect (mainly) Japanese cards. The development of the card market here provides an interesting comparison with that in the US. Some of the comments in this thread got me thinking of these so I thought I would put them out there just for thoughts.

There have been a lot of companies over the decades that have produced cards in Japan but only two of them have done so for an extended period of time: BBM and Calbee. BBM started making cards in 1991 and modeled its cards and business on what American producers were making at the time, which was the high water mark of the junk wax overproduction era. They made a big set and sold it in foil packs like American sets were. Over the years it has basically followed American trends by introducing insert cards, autograph cards and other things for people to chase. It is basically a Japanese clone of an American card company.

Calbee is a bit more interesting though since it has no parallel in the US market. It started issuing cards in 1973, selling them as a promotional item aimed at children that came attached to its bags of potato chips (which is Calbee`s main business).

The interesting thing is that, from that humble beginning in 1973 to becoming probably the most well-known maker of Japanese baseball cards in Japan, do you know how Calbee distributes its baseball cards in 2016?

As a promotional item aimed at children that comes attached to its bags of potato chips.

Calbee has been remarkably consistent throughout the years in keeping its cards and overall business model simple. You buy a bag of chips (which even today cost less than $1) and you get two baseball cards with it (previous years they only included one card, but since 2009 its been 2). There are usually a couple insert sets that might be considered "chase" cards, but they don`t do the expensive memorobelia or other US style rare premium ones. Its a set meant for set-builders rather than for chasing some stuff and throwing the rest out. Set sizes have varied drastically over the years - the 75-76 set boasting almost 1500 cards, while most others generally fall in the 300-400 range.

The designs of the cards are extremely simple (and beautiful): a full bleed photo of the player on the front with almost no other design elements other than the player`s name and team. Calbee sets, particularly from the 1970s which had amazing photography, are among the most attractive ever produced. While they have made adjustments to the design throughout the years, with today`s sets a bit more glossy and printed on a different type of cardboard and in cards of slightly different dimensions, this year`s Calbee set is actually extremely similar to the original 1973 set in its basic design.

One of the things that (to me at least) really defines the junk wax era is that it marked the transition of the US card market from one in which cards were mainly targeted at children in the 1970s (with of course adults also collecting, but not dominating the market for new cards) to one in which adults became the main market that producers targeted. All the producers who entered the market in the 1980s and 1990s were basically aiming their products at a collector`s market whose logic was largely defined by adult collectors, rather than viewing cards as more or less a toy for kids to collect.

So Calbee is kind of the last survivor in the world of a baseball card maker which has kept its core business model - selling cards to kids as a promotional item - the same as it was in the pre-junk wax era. Its almost like an archeological relic from a time long past.

For that reason, as a set collector with fond memories of putting sets together as a kid, I love collecting cards over here because it offers an experience that is more or less extinct in North America now (at least in terms of new sets). The junk wax era never fully wiped out the old way of collecting in Japan like it did in the US.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I live in Japan and collect (mainly) Japanese cards. The development of the card market here provides an interesting comparison with that in the US. Some of the comments in this thread got me thinking of these so I thought I would put them out there just for thoughts.

There have been a lot of companies over the decades that have produced cards in Japan but only two of them have done so for an extended period of time: BBM and Calbee. BBM started making cards in 1991 and modeled its cards and business on what American producers were making at the time, which was the high water mark of the junk wax overproduction era. They made a big set and sold it in foil packs like American sets were. Over the years it has basically followed American trends by introducing insert cards, autograph cards and other things for people to chase. It is basically a Japanese clone of an American card company.

Calbee is a bit more interesting though since it has no parallel in the US market. It started issuing cards in 1973, selling them as a promotional item aimed at children that came attached to its bags of potato chips (which is Calbee`s main business).

The interesting thing is that, from that humble beginning in 1973 to becoming probably the most well-known maker of Japanese baseball cards in Japan, do you know how Calbee distributes its baseball cards in 2016?

As a promotional item aimed at children that comes attached to its bags of potato chips.

Calbee has been remarkably consistent throughout the years in keeping its cards and overall business model simple. You buy a bag of chips (which even today cost less than $1) and you get two baseball cards with it (previous years they only included one card, but since 2009 its been 2). There are usually a couple insert sets that might be considered "chase" cards, but they don`t do the expensive memorobelia or other US style rare premium ones. Its a set meant for set-builders rather than for chasing some stuff and throwing the rest out. Set sizes have varied drastically over the years - the 75-76 set boasting almost 1500 cards, while most others generally fall in the 300-400 range.

The designs of the cards are extremely simple (and beautiful): a full bleed photo of the player on the front with almost no other design elements other than the player`s name and team. Calbee sets, particularly from the 1970s which had amazing photography, are among the most attractive ever produced. While they have made adjustments to the design throughout the years, with today`s sets a bit more glossy and printed on a different type of cardboard and in cards of slightly different dimensions, this year`s Calbee set is actually extremely similar to the original 1973 set in its basic design.

One of the things that (to me at least) really defines the junk wax era is that it marked the transition of the US card market from one in which cards were mainly targeted at children in the 1970s (with of course adults also collecting, but not dominating the market for new cards) to one in which adults became the main market that producers targeted. All the producers who entered the market in the 1980s and 1990s were basically aiming their products at a collector`s market whose logic was largely defined by adult collectors, rather than viewing cards as more or less a toy for kids to collect.

So Calbee is kind of the last survivor in the world of a baseball card maker which has kept its core business model - selling cards to kids as a promotional item - the same as it was in the pre-junk wax era. Its almost like an archeological relic from a time long past.

For that reason, as a set collector with fond memories of putting sets together as a kid, I love collecting cards over here because it offers an experience that is more or less extinct in North America now (at least in terms of new sets). The junk wax era never fully wiped out the old way of collecting in Japan like it did in the US.

Great post Sean, thank you for sharing that info. Been too lazy to get it accomplished but I have wanted to pick up some Japanese Hideki Irabu and Matsui cards for a long time.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I live in Japan and collect (mainly) Japanese cards. The development of the card market here provides an interesting comparison with that in the US. Some of the comments in this thread got me thinking of these so I thought I would put them out there just for thoughts.

There have been a lot of companies over the decades that have produced cards in Japan but only two of them have done so for an extended period of time: BBM and Calbee. BBM started making cards in 1991 and modeled its cards and business on what American producers were making at the time, which was the high water mark of the junk wax overproduction era. They made a big set and sold it in foil packs like American sets were. Over the years it has basically followed American trends by introducing insert cards, autograph cards and other things for people to chase. It is basically a Japanese clone of an American card company.

Calbee is a bit more interesting though since it has no parallel in the US market. It started issuing cards in 1973, selling them as a promotional item aimed at children that came attached to its bags of potato chips (which is Calbee`s main business).

The interesting thing is that, from that humble beginning in 1973 to becoming probably the most well-known maker of Japanese baseball cards in Japan, do you know how Calbee distributes its baseball cards in 2016?

As a promotional item aimed at children that comes attached to its bags of potato chips.

Calbee has been remarkably consistent throughout the years in keeping its cards and overall business model simple. You buy a bag of chips (which even today cost less than $1) and you get two baseball cards with it (previous years they only included one card, but since 2009 its been 2). There are usually a couple insert sets that might be considered "chase" cards, but they don`t do the expensive memorobelia or other US style rare premium ones. Its a set meant for set-builders rather than for chasing some stuff and throwing the rest out. Set sizes have varied drastically over the years - the 75-76 set boasting almost 1500 cards, while most others generally fall in the 300-400 range.

The designs of the cards are extremely simple (and beautiful): a full bleed photo of the player on the front with almost no other design elements other than the player`s name and team. Calbee sets, particularly from the 1970s which had amazing photography, are among the most attractive ever produced. While they have made adjustments to the design throughout the years, with today`s sets a bit more glossy and printed on a different type of cardboard and in cards of slightly different dimensions, this year`s Calbee set is actually extremely similar to the original 1973 set in its basic design.

One of the things that (to me at least) really defines the junk wax era is that it marked the transition of the US card market from one in which cards were mainly targeted at children in the 1970s (with of course adults also collecting, but not dominating the market for new cards) to one in which adults became the main market that producers targeted. All the producers who entered the market in the 1980s and 1990s were basically aiming their products at a collector`s market whose logic was largely defined by adult collectors, rather than viewing cards as more or less a toy for kids to collect.

So Calbee is kind of the last survivor in the world of a baseball card maker which has kept its core business model - selling cards to kids as a promotional item - the same as it was in the pre-junk wax era. Its almost like an archeological relic from a time long past.

For that reason, as a set collector with fond memories of putting sets together as a kid, I love collecting cards over here because it offers an experience that is more or less extinct in North America now (at least in terms of new sets). The junk wax era never fully wiped out the old way of collecting in Japan like it did in the US.

Always daydreamed of starting a company called JPC - Just Plain Cards. released in several series with the high numbers maybe being a little shorter printed. Maybe some weird insert set that you can use to play a game or something. Basically I want to start Topps circa 1966 - 1972.

I think the demand would be huge, price would be reasonable because we ain't doing no UV coatings, gold foil, or whatever other crap passes for a baseball card these days. We're using cardboard. Maybe as a nod to the past we'll use two different types of cardboard to mess with people.

If someone were to actually do this I might actually buy a box of cards again.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

The designs of the cards are extremely simple (and beautiful): a full bleed photo of the player on the front with almost no other design elements other than the player`s name and team. Calbee sets, particularly from the 1970s which had amazing photography, are among the most attractive ever produced. While they have made adjustments to the design throughout the years, with today`s sets a bit more glossy and printed on a different type of cardboard and in cards of slightly different dimensions, this year`s Calbee set is actually extremely similar to the original 1973 set in its basic design.

This reminds me of seeing the evolution of Sports Illustrated covers, which went from amazing photography and very little text on the cover to lesser photographs with six stories teased, which makes for cluttered, confusing and much less appeal to the eye.

On a side note, hasn't the concept of "chase cards" been around for quite some time? I think the concept, at least, was in play as early as the 1933 Goudey Nap Lajoie.