baseball playoffs

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

feels like the last few posts could be jack morris' argument for his hall of fame candidacy...which i'm not a fan of.

as for kershaw, i'm about as close to the situation as possible living in socal. there are many reasons why he's not as dominant as REGULAR SEASON KERSHAW...sure there could be some physiological or mental hurdle, but it could also be the SSS, leaky bullpen, short rest, him being so great he has a longer leash where lesser pitchers wouln't repeatedly turn over a lineup a 3rd time on 3 days rest etc.

i don't remember him being hit hard much, just some weird 7th innings haven't looked at his number closely but his OPS-against in the playoffs shouldn't be a big jump off from his regular season. the start in washington to open the series was the first time i could remember seeing him labor in forever and thinking this is not peak kershaw.

as is we're all hands on deck today...i still feel urias should've started game 4 at home and have a fresh kershaw for game 5 today in washington...but maybe the FO is thinking ahead if they can get by wash to have kershaw pitch 2-3x vs the cubs.

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

[Peter_Spaeth]

OPS .564 regular season .658 post season.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

well, sure, but the thing is they had to win two games to make the next rd and the argument is will a regular rest Urias in 4 and Kershaw in game 5 be better than a short rest kershaw in game 4 and a short rest Hill in game 5?

an argument can be made that the former was the better option.

[bravos4evr]

as for kershaw, i'm about as close to the situation as possible living in socal. there are many reasons why he's not as dominant as REGULAR SEASON KERSHAW...sure there could be some physiological or mental hurdle, but it could also be the SSS, leaky bullpen, short rest, him being so great he has a longer leash where lesser pitchers wouln't repeatedly turn over a lineup a 3rd time on 3 days rest etc.

I tend to think SSS is largely at play here with a bit of bad luck on BABIP and perhaps a little more aggressive approach by batter's faced in the playoffs.

career (regular season)

K/9: 9.81 BB/9: 2.44 HR/FB: 7.0% BABIP: .271 ERA: 2.37 FIP:2.55


career (playoffs)

K/9: 11.20 BB/9: 3.07 HR/FB: 10.7% BABIP: .311 ERA: 4.83 FIP: 3.04




this tells me that he's getting a little bit unlucky on balls in play(either by placement or bad defensive range behind him) and plays a little more to league avg in HR/FB as his K's go up as do walks, but not so much as to be a problem really.

If he were to have say 60 more playoff games I would expect to see his era and fip closer toward his regular season avg.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

well, sure, but the thing is they had to win two games to make the next rd and the argument is will a regular rest Urias in 4 and Kershaw in game 5 be better than a short rest kershaw in game 4 and a short rest Hill in game 5?

an argument can be made that the former was the better option.

A team facing elimination in game 4 is, rightly, focused not on the best chance to win two but the best chance to stay alive and worry about game 5 if they get that luxury. You don't start a 19 year old with 5 lifetime wins in an elimination playoff game, IMO, not when you have an elite HOF pitcher available even if he is on short rest.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

A team facing elimination in game 4 is, rightly, focused not on the best chance to win two but the best chance to stay alive and worry about game 5 if they get that luxury. You don't start a 19 year old with 5 lifetime wins in an elimination playoff game, IMO, not when you have an elite HOF pitcher available even if he is on short rest.

this isn't entirely true tho (tho this is the way most people would view it)

a loss in game 4 or game 5 equals the same result, no advancement in the playoffs. true one must win game 4 to reach game 5, but the numbers of a 3 days rest Kershaw and Hill are not better than the numbers of a full rest Urias and Kershaw. (not to mention that in this age of bullpen specialization, Urias really only needs to go 4 or 5 to provide good value. ) It's tough to get past must win two vs must win one, but in some cases (like the most recent one) it was probably the correct call to save Kershaw for game 5. regardless of the result of game 4

I tend to think decisions should be made based on giving a team the highest % chance of a favorable result and not on whether or no the fanbase or media is going to get angry if the end result is not what they had hoped.


Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and ESPN presents a pretty good argument here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-d...t-julio-urias/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Urias is a 19 year old kid with five wins to his name. No way, no how. Forget all this fangraphs stuff, use some common sense.

[chaddurbin]

Yea basically you need 2wins, the better % would have Kershaw starting game 5, hill/urias in front of a hostile crowd seems like another disadvantage on top of starting Kershaw game 4. I'm sure the front office know all this so they're taking a short-term hit in case they get thru.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If you don't win the first game, your odds of winning the second game are zero. The immediate issue is not maximizing your chances of winning two, it's maximizing your chances of winning one and getting to the final game. This seems obvious.

[botn]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

Exactly. If Urias pitches game 4 there would not have been a game 5. Kershaw was their only hope and a gamble at that given his postseason history. The team itself is not the same in postseason but aside from a great strike out to walk ratio Kershaw is absolutely not the same dominant pitcher that he is during the regular season.

I like Rich Hill tonight if the Dodgers can give him a few runs.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Well Kershaw got the save tonight on one game rest

if Kershaw gives up a double then Janson gets the Loss with 2 earned runs and Janson's era goes through the roof even though he was terrific.

inherited runners scoring matters in a short sample size..

Kerhaw now has more post season saves than koufax


There was a graphic in the 9th inning when kershaw entered the game saying Kerhaw had 19ks in 11 innings or something to that effect and that the Dodgers won BOTH of his starts..(zero mention of his era)

so now his team won both of his starts and he gets a key save retiring Murphy and this year so far is supposed to support his bad history of the postseason? Yeah right, this year his postseason has not tarnished his legacy at all.

on to the next round.....and who cares about using kershaw/janson for 2 plus inning and the impact in game 1 versus cubs...if the dodgers dont win game 5 then season is over anyway