Will Ichiro get the * from Maris?

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

For years, the debate was whether Maris should have the * next to his single-season home run record ... because Ruth set his in a 154-game season, NOT a 162-game season.

However, I have not yet heard ANYONE mention the * in regards to Ichiro approaching GEORGE SISLER'S single-season hits record 257, set in 1920 in a 154-game season).

Is the modern media so intent on "being a part of history" that they will IGNORE the facts??

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Posted By: The Other One (Julie)

games and at-bats this season, though. Is he really likely to make up the difference before the end of the season (between him and Sisler?)

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Posted By: jay behrens

As long as he keeps up his current pace, he will easily pass Sisler. He only needs to hit .310 the rest of the year. He needs to hit about .510 to get his BA over .400.

The reason you don't hear any talk about an asterik is that MLB announced a number of years back that all official records would use the rules of the game at the time of the record. Thus, you don't hear much talk about an asterik since MLB will not even consider it. This isalso the reason that you saw the number .400 hitters jump, becuase there was a season or 2 where BBs were counted in BA, so essentially a player's BA and OBP were the same for those years.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: Jason Smith

When McGwire passed Maris and then the movie "61" was made, I felt like it (rightfully) embarrassed the heck out of ever using an asterisk for any reasonable record. The Ichiro record would definitely be reasonable and no * would be needed. Using the asterisk seemed like just a way for the older people to hold on to Babe Ruth as long as they could.
Saying that, I'm not sure what record would be "unreasonable", but I guess I'm thinking along the lines of if someone was proven to be on steroids or something like that...
Jason

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Posted By: jay behrens

Jason, you need to learn to not hate so much. It' will give you ulcers and you'll enjoy the game of baseball more.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: Anonymous

THE * WAS FORD FRICKS IDEA AND I THINK HE'S DEAD

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Posted By: hankron

The NFL commentators regularly forget that OJ Simpson set his rushing record (2003) in a 13 game season.

One of the great things about breaking a football rushing record is that the running back can lose it the next play (tackled for loss). In fact, I've seen it happen! Hard to do that with home runs or hits.

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Posted By: David Vargha

He certainly seems likely to set both the hit and AB record for a single season. Here are the projections if he maintains his pace through the end of the season:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6615

DavidVargha@hotmail.com

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Posted By: hankron

I'm a Seattlite and an Ichiro fan-- though I like Sisler too. When a record's been around since 1920 (including decades of exanded seasons), it's a safe bet to say this (or that) won't be the year the record is broken.

A positive is that anyone who subscribes to a newspaper in Seattle knows who is Sisler. My paper recently had a big article about him with a large picture of him with his boys (Dick & Dave). That was cool.

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Posted By: qualitycards

The * has been officially removed from Maris, although it was removed after his death. With that in mind if Ichiro does break Sisler's hit mark, there will be no * either.
Ford Frick the commish in 1961 was a friend of Ruth's and his former ghost writer, he came up w/ the idea of the * to preserve the "integrity" of the game. He died in 1978.

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Posted By: Batman - Statman

They could introduce a new stat called HPG (hits per game). I'm pretty sure that would clarify a record for most hits per game. Extrapolating George Sisler's record of 257 hits (1920) in 154 games to a 162 game schedule would yield him with about 270 hits or 1.66883 hits per game. That's impressive. Only problem is that his 257 hits would not be the best HPG stat. There was a player that had 246 hits in 142 games or 1.73239 HPG. That would extrapolate out to an amazing 280 hits in a 162 game season. The HPG king is George Sisler!!! He had 246 hits in 142 games in 1922. That's a testament to consistency and what a great player George Sisler was.

Lets look at Ichiro. If he were to get 258 hits in a 162 game season that would be 1.5926 HPG. At the current pace he is going (a .373 clip) he'd have to have have 691 at bats.

Records are made to be broken and great players will never be forgotten. George Sisler will forever be alive in Cooperstown and in baseball history books. 70 years from now people will wonder who Ichiro was. There will be someone else in the lime light years from now. Who knows where that person will be from - Latin America, Asia, Europe, Africa or even from another planet.

Baseball is a great game of stats and hero's -

Signed,

Statman

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Posted By: Rhett

"70 years from now people will wonder who Ichiro was."

Why? He is perhaps the greatest Japanese player of all time, and has been amazingly consistent during his MLB career. It's is odd that you would think that somehow people will remember Sisler, but Ichiro will be forgotten allong the way. Where is your reasoning for Ichiro someday being forgotten, it is baseless, and pretty ubsurd.
-Rhett

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Posted By: Statman

Rhett,

I think you missed the whole point of the post or perhaps I wasn't clear.

The whole point of the post was to play with a few stats and show how much fun you can have by manipulating and calculating a few things.

I don't believe that I stated Ichiro would forever be forgotten because he, like Sisler and others, have etched themselves into baseball history. For that fact Darryl Cias (a lifetime .333 hitter) will also forever be imortalized in baseball history through publications like the baseball encyclopedia and other fine publications that have recorded baseball information.

What would the world of baseball be like without Ichiro, George or even Darryl Cias.

Statman

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Posted By: warshawlaw

A season is a season. You take the structure of the game as it is found at the time. The * was a travesty at the time Maris set the record and strictly the creation of a cabal of sportswriters and a biased commissioner. I note that no one commented about slapping a star on it due to the long schedule when Koufax broke the single season K record in a 162-game season.

Ichiro is a great, great player who will be the first Japanese HOFer if he lasts ten seasons at the same level as his first four seasons.

That being said, I don't think it is worth debating the issue until he reaches 240-245 hits.

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Posted By: Julie

.......

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Posted By: Cy

Did you notice that out of Ichiro's 221 hits, 186 are singles? He's more like Willie Keeler than Sisler.

Cy

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Posted By: Judge Dred

Paul Waner"ish".

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Posted By: Julie

number of games he appeared in) is miniscule.

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Posted By: Judge Dred

Oops, I meant Lloyd Waner"ish" - In 1927 (his rookie year) he had 223 hits. 198 of those hits were singles.

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Posted By: Judge Dred

Lloyd's RBI total for 1927 was 27. He had 629 at bats. He did manage to score 133 runs!

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Posted By: Jimmy Leiderman

5 for 5 tonight

Go Ichiro!

Hope they stick the * in their ________!!!

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Posted By: Judge Dred

I guess it's kind of like when they expanded the football season to 14 games, they didn't differentiate between a 14 or 16 game season for the record books. There should be no * when/if Ichiro gets his 258th hit. Wow, another 5 hit performance. I wonder if he can etch out another 50 hit month? That would be pretty cool.

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Posted By: qualitycards

At the rate Ichiro is going, he may have the record within the 154 games that Sisler had to play, then anything else will be gravy.

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Posted By: Rhett

His RBI numbers are low due to the fact that he bats leadoff. Most leadoff hitters (especially with the inability of Ichiro's teammates to get on base) RBI numbers are low.

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Posted By: Greg Ecklund

Didn't someone have a sign in '61 that said: Frick - Up Your Asterisk?

Sisler was a fantastic player though, and it's good that more people are taking notice of what he did through following Ichiro. If memory serves, Sisler was struck with a terrible sinus infection while in the prime of his career (must have been 1923 from looking at baseball-reference.com as he sat out the whole season). The sinus infection damaged his eyesight and his hitting was never the same - it struck the season after he hit .420, so there's no telling what his career average should have been had he been healthy.

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Posted By: John Dickson

I think a more appropriate marker for both records should be at bats instead of games played. If I am not mistaken, didn't Maris have fewer at bats than Ruth, despite playing more games? The * should have never happened.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Maris not only had fewer ABs he also had fewer plate appearances which is more important than ABs.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: Max

Maris had 590 AB, 94 BB, 7 SF, 7 HBP, http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/marisro01.shtml
Ruth had 540 AB, 137 BB, 14 SH (! ), 0 HBP, http://baseballreference.com/r/ruthba01.shtml

Ruth had both fewer AB and fewer plate appearances


Max

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Posted By: shoo

Like Bonds, Ichiro is someone we should appreciate he is without a doubt the best leadoff hitter I have seen and i grew up watching Rickey Henderson in his hey day. Every generation has its great players and the longer each one of us stays around we will see more of them. I know this is mostly a prewar site and its the best around hands down, I love all the old time players Ty Cobb being my favorite, maybe cuz im from Detroit. Right now in baseball in my opinion you are seeing some of the best to every play ie Ichiro,Bonds,Rodriguez both of them Ivan and Alex,Pujols and with the likes of clemens, maddux and martinez on the mound. Its just a joy to watch any of them play.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Someone on one of the SABR lists brought up an interesting point, Bonds is on a pace to get close to Ruth's mark of reaching first the most times in a season. At his current pace, Bonds is going to come up 5-10 short of Ruth's record 373 times getting on base in a season.

Hits are impressive, but Ichiro doesn't even register on the all-time list in this catagory. Curently; Bonds 317 Ichiro 268.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Ruth got on base 373 times in 154 games??!!!

That's like 2.5 times a game! Wow.

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Posted By: Cy

Jay,

I looked up the stats about Babe Ruth reaching first base. In 1923, the Babe had 170 walks and 205 hits for 375 times on base in a season. Those are impressive numbers. Bonds is projected to have 226 walks and 138 hits for 364 times on base. However, if you look at the numbers a little more closely, you will see something even more amazing.

Ruth's 375 times om base is truly awesome. When he did that he came to the plate 692 times (522 AB with 170 BB). Bonds is projected to come to the plate 597 times (371 AB and 226 BB). That means he will come up just short on this awesome stat but with 95 fewer times coming to the plate.

Hate Bonds or love Bonds he is putting up the best stats of all-time.

Cy

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Posted By: Gary B.

It's perhaps easier to be impressed by Ichiro since he hasn't broken the records Bonds has, even though hitting 200 your first four seasons for the first time ever is damn impressive, whether he beats Sisler or not, but I'm hoping he does beat it. I love to see records broken, especially ones that have lasted for decades by the true greats of the game. If you're into statistics as I am, then it's just a wild ride every day.

It's perhaps easy to take Bonds' numbers for granted, since for the most part, all the records he's breaking this year are his own, but that doesn't make them less impressive, it just puts someone else ever matching it even further out of reach. This season alone he's already become the first person to get 100 intentional walks, is just about to be the first person ever to get over 200 walks, and unless something drastic changes, he'll be the first person ever to get over a .600 on base percentage - that is just insane. He's also about to post the 4th season ever with an .800+ slugging percentage (to make it 2 seasons for Ruth and 2 for Bonds), an OPS of 1.434 (highest ever beating his own record), not to mention he's hitting around .370, will get around 45 home runs and less than 40 strikeouts with only approx. 375 at bats by the time the season's over for a 40-year old man who will undoubtedly get his 7th MVP including his 4th straight. This is impressive s**t, and this is only this one year, not even mentioning the crazy records of other individual years and the career numbers he's adding to.

Add Ichiro into the mix, and things get damn exciting. With him you don't even have a pennant race getting in the way, it's all about what he does or does not do each day.

Here's hoping Maddux gets 2 more to get to 15 wins, extending his streak to an unbelievable 17 years! While no one will ever approach the 370+ win mark of the 4 winningest pitchers ever, still no one has created this amazing feat of consistency, not even the great one they named that award after.

Add to that all the tight division and wild card races, and well, what can one say but what a season! Gotta love baseball in September...

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Posted By: jay behrens

Gary, if you been folowing the sports press at all, it is highly unlikely that Bonds will win the MVP unless the Giants make a huge surge and manage to win the NLW. Almost every writer that has mentioned the topib od MVP agrees that Bonds' season this year is one of the most incredible seasons ever, but they are itching to give the award to somene else, and Rolen's name is mentioned most prominenntly. Mostly because he plays for the Cards and they have the best record in baseball.

I disagree totally with this logic. You take away Rolen and CArds are still goign to make the playoffs and likely win the Central. Take Bonds away from the Giants and they are battling AZ for the worst team in NL.

Jay

I like to sit outside, drink beer and yell at people. If I did this at home I would be arrested, so I go to baseball games and fit right in.

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Posted By: Gary B.

WOW, well I keep up with news stories on cnnsi.com, but I guess that's not enough, because this is the first wind I've heard of that. That would be a serious tragedy to not reward him for his season. He should be rewarded totally independently of what he's won previously, but on this year alone, and those numbers are truly staggering. Now, if he was on a team that wasn't even in contention, that would be one thing. If he deserves to win, then he should win. The guy's only going to be around for two more years max - the record should reflect his dominance, even if he ends up winning it FIVE years in a row.

Rolen's numbers are nowhwere NEAR the numbers for Bonds - he has 7 less home runs with 150 more at bats. He's got 130 fewer walks and 50 more strikeouts. Bonds has 50 points in average over Rolen, 200 points in on base percentage AND slugging percentage. Bonds even has more runs (fewer RBI's because he's on a lesser team). Sounds like they just want to vote for someone else because it's not Bonds. Why Rolen? Why not Pujols if they're just trying to grab someone from the hottest NL team? If Bonds was playing for the Diamondbacks and they still had the record they have, that would be one thing, but...

Hopefully in the end wisdom will prevail.

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Posted By: Gary B.

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/2705408


This is not exactly a situation like 1941 where Ted Williams was a shoe-in to win based on stellar stats, but lost because of an incredible feat by Joe Dimaggio.

Bonds is this year's 1941 Ted Williams, but there is no one anywhere close to a Joe Dimaggio out there who even arguably deserves to swipe it away...

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Posted By: jay behrens

The really sad thing about the whole debate is that most writers can't even agree with who is the MVP for the Cards, so how can they possibley pick one of them for the NL MVP? The names of Rolen, Puljos and Edmonds (wtf?) have been mentioned as candidates.

Jay

I'm not afraid of death. I see something dead on my plate every time I sit down to eat.

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Posted By: Gary B.

That makes 226 - Ichiro Watch is ON!

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Posted By: Gary B.

Ichiro now has 226 hits, and he needs 32 hits in the next 25 games to break the record and get him to 258, which is 1.28 hits per game.

He averages 4.36 official (not including walks) at bats per game, so he'll get about 109 more at bats, and will need a .294 average through the rest of the season to get 32 more hits. Hardly in the bag, but he could fall significantly from the pace he's been keeping as of late and still make it.

If he manages to stay on his amazing pace of batting .379 for those 109 at bats, he'll get 41 hits, bringing him to 267. - 9 more than he needs.

*** Now for those who care about the asterisk factor, even if there won't be one officially, Sisler hit an average of 1.66 hits per game over a 154 game season in which he played every game. For Ichiro to average 1.66 hits per game over a 162 game season, he'd have to get to 269 hits, or hit .394 for the rest of the season. Ichiro's been batting a lot higher than that over the last month (.473), so it's doable, but still that would be a fierce pace. Considering Ichiro missed a game and would only play 161 games, that would put him JUST over Sisler's pace.

Phew!

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

I am probably way out in left field on this one, but to my way of thinking when something which occurs has an extremely high unliklihood of occurance, I think that there may be factors in play which are unaccounted for.

For example, in 1997 if I was asked "what is the possibility of two batters averaging over 60HR/season for 4 consectutve seasons + two batters hitting 70 or more HRs", Id have said that Id bet against it.

Similarly, I ask myself: what is the chance that six batters get 250 or more hits between 1920-1930, and it never happens before nor since? Well, again I say - there has got to be more to it than is apparent from the stats alone.

Because of the above unliklihoods, Maris and Ruth both have an asterisk in my mind, and Ichiro will too, if he earns it - because those three appear to be accomplished due to wholly honest factors.

Gil, left fielder

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

I now know that I should not have brought this up. For if one casts questions on the validity of the 250 hit seasons, he also questions Hornsby's five consecutive .400 seasons and Ruths three >50HR seasons.

Perhaps this ground (the 20s) is far too sacred for me to be tresspassing upon. I did like Johnson leading his team to wins in the middle of the decade, before he finished his career.

- Unnamed left fielder

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Posted By: Judge Dred

Hornsby hit over .400 in three out of five consecutive seasons. He didn't do too badly the other two (.387 and.397). I guess hitting at a .402 clip over 5 consecutive seasons is pretty good. Good chance that stat may never be equaled. If it is, I would like to be around to see it.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I now think Ichiro is going to do it if he is uninjured and pitched to by the opposition. He is not the MVP, though. That distinction goes to Vladimir Guerrero.

Bonds is the second-best candidate for MVP if the season ended today. The best one right now is Adrian Beltre. The Dodgers would be absolutely nowhere without his play this year and are leading the division. If they win the West, I rank him above Bonds for his value to the team. Now, if the Dodgers fold and the Giants win, I would give Bonds the nod. I do not give as much value to the achievements of the Cardinals' big guys because their whole team is firing on all cylinders. They each are not as valuable to their teams as the other two are to their teams.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Adam, lots of contradictions in your rationale. True, I would never choose one of the Cardinals players because the subtraction of one would not adversely affect the team that much. On the other hand, Beltre is a very important cog in the Dodger machine, but if you take him away, his loss has much less impact than if you take Bonds away from the Giants. You take Bonds away from the Giants and you have the Diamondbacks, or worse. This is not the case if the Dodgers lost Beltre. How anyone can rationalize that Bonds is not the MVP with the unworldly season he is having is beyond me.

I hate seeing the same team and players win over and over again. It gets boring. But Bonds is putting on a display the likes of which we may never see again in our lifetime, except by Bonds.

I got some help from some SABR people and here is short list of players that had better BAs than their team's W%

The 1962 Mets did well in this stat:
.344 Marshall
.306 Ashburn
.289 Landrith
,275 Mantilla
,274 Woodling
.266 Thomas
.260 Neal
.252 Hodges
.250 Team W-L%

as did the 1928 Phillies:
.360 Klein
.304 Leach
.301 Whitney
.300 Wilson
.287 Thompson
.285 Sothern
.285 Hurst
.283 Team W-L%

and the 1930 Phillies:
.386 Klein
.383 O'Doul
.342 Whitney
.341 Friberg
.338 Team W-L%

Jay

I saw wierd stuff in that place last night. Wierd, strange, sick, twisted, eerie, godless, evil stuff. And I want in.

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Posted By: dennis

the MVP AWARD THIS YEAR HANDS DOWN. just look at his stats! 200+ walks/ 370 batting avg 40+ homers 500 on base percentage 800+ SLUGGING!! even the dumbest of the media (who vote) can figure out the historical (stat wise)year he is having.AND HIS TEAM IS IN THE HUNT FOR THE PLAYOFFS(can't be used against him)it will be NO CONTEST.

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Posted By: Gary B.

yes, it seems a serious no-brainer. you're exactly right, except it's a .600 on base percentage - hell, even .500 would be astounding, .600 is phenomenal.

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Posted By: jay behrens

Here's the highest BA with the highest W%; 1924 Rogers Hornsby .424 Cards .422. Ichiro has a ways to go to beat this.

Jay

I saw wierd stuff in that place last night. Wierd, strange, sick, twisted, eerie, godless, evil stuff. And I want in.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

But let's not focus on stats alone ("lies, damned lies and statistics"). Yes, Bonds is having a monster season, one of the best ever in certain key statistical categories, but what is the impact of that season as compared to Beltre on the team, assuming the Dodgers win the West handily? In other words, how many runs has he generated and does that total so vastly exceed Beltre's run production that the statistical factors make him a "shoo-in" for MVP? According to this morning's paper: Beltre's got 10 more RBIs than Bonds and Bonds has 15 more runs scored than Beltre. The net impact of all that monster OBP is five more runs crossing the plate. Bonds is hitting .371 but he only has 118 hits; Beltre at .338 has 53 more hits. Neither man is among the to 10 in the league in doubles or triples. The upshot is that Bonds is reaching first base and languishing, a lot. That doesn't help the team, which is why he is being walked. Plus, Bonds ain't much in the field and his impact on the team chemistry is a neutral to negative. Beltre has been playing a great 3rd base and has been the leader of the team, by all accounts, esp. playing through a sprained ankle with a bone spur. Beltre has been the key to the Dodgers run, in every way. That's why I go with him over Bonds, unless the Giants overwhelm the Dodgers in September with BB leading the way. That's why the 1941 MVP went to DiMaggio not Williams.

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Posted By: The Other One (Julie)

Ichero would only have to get 3 hits a day for the rest of the season to get a .400 BA. (.379 this morning)

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Posted By: jay behrens

Adam, if you are loots at this all wrong. It's not Bonds fault that plays on a horrible team that is incapable of driving him in. Without Bonds, the Giants are worse than DBacks.

What you want to look at is run created. It's no contest I don't know the numbers for Beltre, but is set to break the record for RC with something close to 22. The next best player in the NL is only at 12 (one of the Cards, I think Rolen). Baseball is all about creating runs, and there is no way you can vote for a player that is half as productive as Bonds.

Jay

I saw weird stuff in that place last night. Wierd, strange, sick, twisted, eerie, godless, evil stuff. And I want in.