A Cards Worth

[Blitzu]

I wanted to take a second to start a discussion regarding a cards worth. All too often I see people "astonished" or confused at the price a card sold at either auction or elsewhere. One thing I've learned after collecting and dealing in cards for over 25 years is a cards worth not only what someone will pay for it, but also what someone will sell it for. Each card, regardless of commonality is unique. General Beckett prices and other price guides do attempt to make a unilateral standard to gauge market prices but the final price is always determined by the seller and the buyer.

I think it should be even more obvious that price standards or market prices can't accurately gauge what a less common card in an incredibly popular set like the T206's will sell for.

Point is I've learned over the years that nothing surprises me anymore and people will sell and buy a specific card for what they feel it's worth. Market prices can be used to estimate a selling price but that one card might be worth more to that seller than it is to other sellers. Doesn't matter if there are a dozen more just like it selling for a fraction less, that card is worth that much to that owner and no one else will ever have it unless they pay that price. So each card is in fact unique and each card is worth something different. I think all too often consumers think it's as easy as comparing apples to apples, but with something so highly collected prices can vary tremendously.

That's all I really have to say on the subject but I'm interested in hearing others opinions. Thx!

[sportscardpete]

It's not so much and issue if ONE person really wants the card; it becomes a problem when TWO OR MORE people really want a card.

[barrysloate]

I agree with Blitzu that nothing surprises me either. Most sales will fall within an expected range, but there will always be extremes too. Every time I ran an auction there were a few lots that went way higher than I expected. So since it happened virtually every time, I could say with near certainty that it would occur in my next auction too. I just couldn't identify ahead of time which lots they would be.

But you can be sure that every time it happens, there is a reason for it. And if you could interview the two highest bidders, you would discover why.

[Leon]

When valuing cards, especially to buy, I have two ways of going about it. One for my collection and one for resale. If it is for my collection, and I don't think I will see another "ever", or at least very soon, then you can forget about a guide or a perceived value. Those ideas are shot to hell. I will bid with my heart and not my brain (depending on my resources at the time). When I am bidding/buying for resale, I (try) to bid more with my brain than my heart. On those purchases I will try to get a comparable value, no different than any other kind of buying in life. Great question though and hopefully some others will chime in with their thoughts. best regards

[Leon]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I agree with Blitzu that nothing surprises me either. Most sales will fall within an expected range, but there will always be extremes too. Every time I ran an auction there were a few lots that went way higher than I expected. So since it happened virtually every time, I could say with near certainty that it would occur in my next auction too. I just couldn't identify ahead of time which lots they would be.

But you can be sure that every time it happens, there is a reason for it. And if you could interview the two highest bidders, you would discover why.

Hey Barry,
You mean like these 2? (e98 Clarke- blue background) and the 1927 dated Sports Co of America,....

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Leon

When valuing cards, especially to buy, I have two ways of going about it. One for my collection and one for resale. If it is for my collection, and I don't think I will see another "ever", or at least very soon, then you can forget about a guide or a perceived value. Those ideas are shot to hell. I will bid with my heart and not my brain (depending on my resources at the time). When I am bidding/buying for resale, I (try) to bid more with my brain than my heart. On those purchases I will try to get a comparable value, no different than any other kind of buying in life. Great question though and hopefully some others will chime in with their thoughts. best regards

My problem is that I usually bid with my finger.

[jefferyepayne]

Since I don't resell cards but hope that someday they will be worth something, I tend to try to do both of these things at once when I buy cards. I usually try to figure out what price a dealer will pay for the card assuming a standard markup for resale. I always bid more than what I believe dealers will pay so I don't get sniped by a dealer. Now I'm down (in theory) to collectors and base my final bid on a variety of factors: 1) determined value of the card, 2) how many/frequent are the bids on this lot, 3) how close to my determined value the auction is already, 4) how close to completing the set I am. The higher these variables are, the higher my bid will probably be. I use gavelsnipe not just for its bidding convenience but also so I'm not tempted to bid up a card that goes beyond what I've already decided its worth to me. Once I set my max bid price I just forget about it until the auction ends. I'm not interested in a bidding war with another collector and will just wait for the next card to come along if I get outbid.

jeff

Originally Posted by Leon

When valuing cards, especially to buy, I have two ways of going about it. One for my collection and one for resale. If it is for my collection, and I don't think I will see another "ever", or at least very soon, then you can forget about a guide or a perceived value. Those ideas are shot to hell. I will bid with my heart and not my brain (depending on my resources at the time). When I am bidding/buying for resale, I (try) to bid more with my brain than my heart. On those purchases I will try to get a comparable value, no different than any other kind of buying in life. Great question though and hopefully some others will chime in with their thoughts. best regards

[glchen]

I think there are other factors also, such as how well the card is advertised and whether the seller knows what he has. You see cards that are sold at estate sales for a few bucks, which are worth thousands of dollars. This is because the sellers don't realize what they have and too few buyers were able to view the card.

[ScottFandango]

i think a card's worth has been partially determined already by its PERCEIVED RARITY LEVEL that was established by the hobby pioneers (in the pre technology days)...

i feel some cards that are historically considered rare, are in fact not that rare, while another card that may have been thought of as uncommon, may indeed be rare.

the advent of technology (available data) should work to readjust these perceived rarities and therefore alter/re-adjust the worth...

[Blitzu]

Originally Posted by ScottFandango

i think a card's worth has been partially determined already by its PERCEIVED RARITY LEVEL that was established by the hobby pioneers (in the pre technology days)...

i feel some cards that are historically considered rare, are in fact not that rare, while another card that may have been thought of as uncommon, may indeed be rare.

the advent of technology (available data) should work to readjust these perceived rarities and therefore alter/re-adjust the worth...

That's only one factor that can be used in buyer's/seller's rationale, but the unpredictable and unassesable factors can never be reasoned by any form of technology. Such as one's desire to own that card to complete a set (considering that it is common), or they just came into a lot of money and they just adore that athlete, or the card just has some other form of sentimental value. We can never assume that one person's sense of worth will be the same for another; hence there should never be any shocking surprises for what a card sells for.

Just like Leon said, if you really want something from the heart a dollar value can meaningless. I agree, since I too have paid a considerable amount more for some cards theme others thought it was worth just because I truly wanted it.

[Bosox Blair]

I respectfully disagree with the breadth of the premise.

For items of true rarity (even unique), I accept that it is difficult to ascertain a firm value. Therefore sales results can be quite surprising. At the extreme of this are one-of-a-kind items, like original oil paintings. To me, the seller of such an item has equal power to a buyer (or buyers) in setting the price.

But in terms of cards, the number that would fall into this categary are quite few.

Most cards are readily and frequently traded to the point where we can pretty easily determine value. And since many are sold by no-reserve auctions, in these cases the buyers set the market price.

Personally I think there is no card in T206 that is rare enough to apply the "each one is different" art-like approach. The Wagner may be looked at this way, but not because of rarity...rather because of the extreme high value.

For pretty much all other T206s, you can be assured there will be plenty of transactions of graded examples, and if you examine these transactions you'll see a trend. A result outside that trend is an outlier, and if the trend is a strong one, I can fully understand why someone might be surprised by an outlier.

The examples of people who are rich and don't care about money etc., if true, only create outlier transactions. Personally I disregard these things in my evaluation of true "worth". (Classic example is BINs from eBay.) I am a long term collector with patience and knowledge...I don't care what other types of people do on a whim.

Where the item in question is frequently traded, IMO the seller has little part in determining "worth".

It doesn't matter if I think my T206 Piedmont Bill Carrigan in a 4 is the best one ever and "worth" $500 to me...that has no bearing on the real "worth". It just means I'll keep it forever.

And if I think my Apple stock is "worth" $1000, that has no effect on its real "worth", since there is enough of it out there to trade daily for a lot less than that. It just means I'll be keeping it.

I suppose my real problem with the OP is that taken to its limit, the idea is that there is no way to determine the value of cards, other than to accept what a seller is asking for. While this is what dealers want people to think, it isn't true.

Cheers,
BLair

[ScottFandango]

you said "Most cards are readily and frequently traded to the point where we can pretty easily determine value. And since many are sold by no-reserve auctions, in these cases the buyers set the market price"

this isnt true in many sets (maybe true for T206 only lol)

many caramel cards are not readily available and some E cards havent seen ebay in quite a while!

would you call 20 graded SGC versions and 12 graded PSA version of a card "readily available?" this is the case for many E cards

[mrvster]

Hello,

I collect very unique t206, and there is no "guide" for me to follow, but i have trouble parting with them anyway, too tuf to replace

[barrysloate]

Hi Leon- I remember those two cards well. And I couldn't have predicted the final price on either of them.

[Blitzu]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

I respectfully disagree with the breadth of the premise.

For items of true rarity (even unique), I accept that it is difficult to ascertain a firm value. Therefore sales results can be quite surprising. At the extreme of this are one-of-a-kind items, like original oil paintings. To me, the seller of such an item has equal power to a buyer (or buyers) in setting the price.

But in terms of cards, the number that would fall into this categary are quite few.

Most cards are readily and frequently traded to the point where we can pretty easily determine value. And since many are sold by no-reserve auctions, in these cases the buyers set the market price.

Personally I think there is no card in T206 that is rare enough to apply the "each one is different" art-like approach. The Wagner may be looked at this way, but not because of rarity...rather because of the extreme high value.

For pretty much all other T206s, you can be assured there will be plenty of transactions of graded examples, and if you examine these transactions you'll see a trend. A result outside that trend is an outlier, and if the trend is a strong one, I can fully understand why someone might be surprised by an outlier.

The examples of people who are rich and don't care about money etc., if true, only create outlier transactions. Personally I disregard these things in my evaluation of true "worth". (Classic example is BINs from eBay.) I am a long term collector with patience and knowledge...I don't care what other types of people do on a whim.

Where the item in question is frequently traded, IMO the seller has little part in determining "worth".

It doesn't matter if I think my T206 Piedmont Bill Carrigan in a 4 is the best one ever and "worth" $500 to me...that has no bearing on the real "worth". It just means I'll keep it forever.

And if I think my Apple stock is "worth" $1000, that has no effect on its real "worth", since there is enough of it out there to trade daily for a lot less than that. It just means I'll be keeping it.

I suppose my real problem with the OP is that taken to its limit, the idea is that there is no way to determine the value of cards, other than to accept what a seller is asking for. While this is what dealers want people to think, it isn't true.

Cheers,
BLair

Thanks for the comments Blair. As I understand your point, I am basing my entire thought process on what I have observed over the years. BTW, I am not a dealer and not looking to change anyone's belief on that dealers prices are the value. I am a collector and regardless of any number someone throws at me, the cards I treasure are not for sale. I once saw a dealer every weekend at a show back in the late eighties that had a handful of T206's that he was asking hundreds to thousands of dollars for each of them. Some thought he was crazy, I now wish I would have bought them for their value is far more now then they were then.

Anyways point is those cards are each unique since each owner, irregardless if they're a dealer or just another collector. Since either will not let the card they own go for less than the price they want to sell it for. Doesn't mean their price is set in stone, but once the buyer and seller agre on the price that becomes it's worth. There is also the buyer vs buyer worth where two people or more in an auction setting compete until a sell price is set. That too makes that individual card worth that sell price. These are my observations over the years.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by ScottFandango

you said "Most cards are readily and frequently traded to the point where we can pretty easily determine value. And since many are sold by no-reserve auctions, in these cases the buyers set the market price"

this isnt true in many sets (maybe true for T206 only lol)

many caramel cards are not readily available and some E cards havent seen ebay in quite a while!

would you call 20 graded SGC versions and 12 graded PSA version of a card "readily available?" this is the case for many E cards

Hi Scott,

I agree that E-cards are generally a lot tougher than the mainstream T-cards (in fact I've been known to raise that point in posts as well), but I'm often surprised how readily available a lot of these cards are anyway.

I'm a couple cards away from a graded Dockman set that I built over the last 3 years. Most of these cards have a PSA pop in the 20s...much scarcer than T206, but I can pretty much buy them every day of the week. In fact, I'm very cheap and don't spring for BIN cards much...so I still built the set bit by bit from well-priced auction buys and the odd purchase from other collectors on this BB.

I know there are a lot of E-cards scarcer than Dockman, but honestly the only ones I find elusive in terms of my collection are E107 and E125 (both types have come up regularly, but a tough hunt for specific subjects I need). Everything else comes up at auction repeatedly if I keep my eyes open for it.

That's my perspective anyhow.

Cheers,
Blair