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  #1  
Old 11-07-2015, 04:25 PM
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Rookiemonster Rookiemonster is offline
Dustin
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Default Modern cards that the prices can't last on ?

So sometime the cards the we think are valuable don't stay that way any ideas on what's has no real value to it . For instance if Derek jeter continues to sign autograph until he's 93 years old at a high pace will they still have value ? Or if every year a there is a refractor of mike trout every year for 20 year will there be a market for them ?
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  #2  
Old 11-08-2015, 07:25 AM
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95% of modern cards are devalued within months of release due to the availability of them online. It's kind of fascinating watching the first Kris Bryant card from each set sell for $12-25 on COMC before the flood them come in and start getting priced at $3. At least last year, the Topps Tek reintroduction had some legs, but now most of those base cards can be found cheap. And the people spending $50 for low-printed, but non-numbered variations are probably kicking themselves.
1/1 cards, due to how many Topps prints out, are losing their steam as well. I think too many investors have lost their shirt on them and are now no longer willing to spend so much in order to have them the first go-around, expecting them to be re-listed regularly.
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  #3  
Old 11-08-2015, 08:04 AM
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I would say all, but Jordan is the exception to the rule so another may someday exist.

The essence of modern card collecting lies in gambling. It's the heart of the marketing for the new releases. You spend a ton in the hopes of a hit. The only chance of even making your money back is buying the freshest release and flipping within days hoping the excitement draws higher bids from set builders or holding rc's praying one pans out.

The moment a player retires if he does not maintain a HOF career the cards are worth 20% of prior sales within 6 months, even if they have a HOF career the excitement maintains about a year or two at best from investors or people thinking of them (talking to you Jeter) and dies. Value (real sales prices not silly beckett value) will drop 75% in 3 years. It will spike again the year of their HOF bid and then slowly die again.

Long term investment in modern should be illegal to call "investment".

What's smart is buying what you like and expecting that it's for you and you will likely lose money. If you want to break even, buy vintage and you will likely lose the least if you hold on it to it long term. You may be able to lottery out holding new cards short term but long term, it's like buying a new chevy Malibu and holding on to it for 6 years. You can turn your 20k into 3500 bucks...if you are lucky.
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  #4  
Old 11-08-2015, 12:36 PM
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All good points it is like gambling or stocks if you a Tom Brady card from 2002 .
It has seen high and lows since then it just comes down to when to pull the trigger . But what I really whoild like to know is if mike trout goes on to be one of the best ever but signs for another 70 years will his autos hold up . Or if they make 30 different refractors of him every year will it still be worth something 20 years from now ?
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  #5  
Old 11-08-2015, 02:03 PM
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The simple answer is the law of supply and demand.

I would say of course not.

It would be what you believe -
A. If there are 800,000 of something people will continue to pay hundreds for it.
Or
B. Everyone that wants one has one so the demand trickles to a drop and it becomes very easy to get one cheap.

If you want HOF level examples look at Bob Feller, Pete Rose, Stan Musial, etc, etc, etc.
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  #6  
Old 11-12-2015, 05:50 PM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustinD View Post
I would say all, but Jordan is the exception to the rule so another may someday exist.

The essence of modern card collecting lies in gambling. It's the heart of the marketing for the new releases. You spend a ton in the hopes of a hit. The only chance of even making your money back is buying the freshest release and flipping within days hoping the excitement draws higher bids from set builders or holding rc's praying one pans out.

The moment a player retires if he does not maintain a HOF career the cards are worth 20% of prior sales within 6 months, even if they have a HOF career the excitement maintains about a year or two at best from investors or people thinking of them (talking to you Jeter) and dies. Value (real sales prices not silly beckett value) will drop 75% in 3 years. It will spike again the year of their HOF bid and then slowly die again.

Long term investment in modern should be illegal to call "investment".

What's smart is buying what you like and expecting that it's for you and you will likely lose money. If you want to break even, buy vintage and you will likely lose the least if you hold on it to it long term. You may be able to lottery out holding new cards short term but long term, it's like buying a new chevy Malibu and holding on to it for 6 years. You can turn your 20k into 3500 bucks...if you are lucky.
+1. Very well said, Justin. Demand for the current young phenoms has a very large speculative and transient element, with the latter meaning that it shifts to the newest and latest and greatest virtually as soon as it appears. I remember (and it wasn't too long ago) that someone paid $25K on a one-of-one Strasburg refractor--would anyone pay a 50th of that now?

Best to all, and buy what you like,

Larry
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  #7  
Old 11-19-2015, 01:53 AM
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Aside from rookies and young players who's careers don't quite pan out, I would say the cards in danger are low pop PSA 10s from the 80s. 86 Fleer Johnny Moore is the obvious one that comes to mind, but I'm sure there are others. 86 Topps Steve Young as well. There have to be so many raw cards out there and as more are discovered I would assume the prices will crash.

As was mentioned HOFers that don't go down as the greatest of the era and are forgotten by many will probably be in trouble as well.
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  #8  
Old 11-19-2015, 08:58 AM
Rich Klein Rich Klein is offline
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Kris Bryant

Just look at Jose Abreu last year to this year
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  #9  
Old 11-19-2015, 10:24 AM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Klein View Post
Kris Bryant

Just look at Jose Abreu last year to this year
I would say all of them..
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  #10  
Old 11-20-2015, 09:47 PM
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Any and all Mike Trout cards.
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