Is Tony Gwynn Getting Enough Glory

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

I bought this book today on Baseball's All-Time Best Hitters. Michael Schell made 4 major adjustments to batting average and comes up with Tony Gwynn as the all-time greatest hitter.

His arguments are pretty persuasive. If Tony Gwynn is arguably the all-time greatest hitter then when he shares the stage with Cal Ripken upon their induction into the Halll of Fame, shouldn't Tony get as much or more glory than Cal Ripken.

Yet Cal Ripken is the media darling and it seems like Tony is a distant also ran. Would forum members like to comment on this.

Peter

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Posted By: brian

he belongs in the hall just as much as Ripkin. Have you seen him lately? If he doesn't lay off the pizzas I'm afraid he might end up like Kirby Puckett.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

Gwynn was a first ballot pick, which these days is reserved for the marquis names like Brett, Yount and Ryan.

I don't think anyone would argue that Gwynn wasn't the best for average batter of his generation. He may have been the best for average batter since WWII, and perhaps the best 3-4 ever. That he fielded well and could steal some bases doesn't hurt the cause. Obviously he didn't have much home run power.

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Posted By: anthony

i believe playing for the right team at the right time plays a big part of the glory you get...the padres dont compare to teams like the yankees, redsox, dodgers, etc...whether these teams have good or bad years, they get the attention...unfortunately, if the padres have a bad year, nobody except the san diegians know about it....

mike piazza now plays for oakland, my friend didnt even know he played the 2006 season for the padres...and we're in l.a...

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Posted By: Ken W.

Gwynn is in my top 15 all-time greatest hitters. Tied for 2nd all-time with Wagner in batting titles with 8 - THAT should have been given much more credit than the media ever gave it. The 28-something age ESPN staffers don't care too much about Wagner these days. (Have you ever seen those stats that they show listing the top 5 in whatever, and you can't believe it until you notice the fine print and it says, "since 1970." Ever wonder why the significance of 1970? ... wah, wah!) Ripken is very well deserving, but his attention comes 90% from THE STREAK. I ran out and bought a 2nd year Gwynn the moment he made the HALL, and am damn glad to have it. (Paid exactly one buck, BTW)!

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Posted By: peter chao

Baltimore is a baseball time but somehow it doesn't strike me as a media center. However, it's definitely a media center in comparison to San Diego.

Peter

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Posted By: Jason L

I would be interested to know, -what were the adjustments that the author made?
if you could paraphrase, that might be an intersting addition to the debate.
He was a good hitter no doubt, and no argument from me, but it would be fun to hear what adjustments needed to be made for him to vault up to #1

Jason L

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Posted By: dennis

gwynn was a great hitter. he deserves 1st ballot election in the HoF.but his power #'s were not impressive (hrs/runs scored/runs batted in).after the age of 30 he also missed a lot of games. 1st ballot election to the hall is pretty special so i think he is getting what he deserves. 10 most comparable players (bb reference)
Zack Wheat (882) *
Rod Carew (866) *
Paul Waner (864) *
Wade Boggs (851) *
Sam Rice (846) *
Roberto Clemente (820) *
Heinie Manush (817) *
George Sisler (813) *
Sam Crawford (810) *
Vada Pinson (805)
Gwynn surely is not one of the ALL-TIME GREATS.to imply in any way that gwynn is the best hitter ever is way off. the author must be his manager/agent.

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

Michael Schell doesn't have the light touch of Bill James, but I will summarize. First, he looks at the first 8000 at bats and adjusts for Late Career Declines. Second, he adjusts for Hitting Feasts and Famines. Sometimes when a hitter is lucky the teams expand once or twice during a guys career thus resulting in better years.

Third, he adjusts for League Batting Talent. For instance, Duke Snider played at almost the same time as Mick and Willie. Fourth, adjusting for ballpark.

The top 11 hitters become: 1)Gwynn 2)Cobb 3)Rod Carew 4) Joe Jackson 5) Rogers Hornsby 6)Ted Williams 7) Honus Wagner 8) Stan Musial 9) Wade Boggs 10) Nap Lajoie 11) Tris Speaker.

I got to admit that's pretty close to the top 11 I would pick. The position of each of the hitters might differ but that's a pretty good top 11. Nap Lajoie and Tris Speaker tied.

Peter

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Posted By: Peter Spaeth

What was the name of that guy who played for the Yankees? It's on the tip of my tongue but I can't remember. Babe something?

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Posted By: Mark L

Peter,
Babe who? I think he was a pitcher. Do you mean Lou Gehrig? If I had to pitch to either Gehrig or Wade Boggs, I would pick Boggs.

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Posted By: Rob

Pitching dominated in the mid to late 1960's so that everyones average got depressed. High pitcher's mound, large strike zone, harder throwing pitchers and rise of relief pitching left hitters at a huge disadvantage at that time.

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

I know your probably insulted that Babe wasn't mentioned in the top ten. Just remember, we're talking about the best hitters and not the best power-hitters. If your talking about power-hitters I'm sure that Ruth, Gehrig, and Bonds would be in the top ten.

But, power-hitters certainly aren't being overlooked. Williams, Cobb, and Hornsby had a great deal of power for their time.

A little bit of a surprise is that Rod Carew ranks this high on the top ten list.

Peter

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Posted By: Jason L

I will mention Bonds...if one of the adjustments is called "Late Career Declines" ...how can Bonds not skyrocket to something ahead of #1?!?!?
I mean, since he seemingly "got better" with age (yeah, sure...just age)...I would think his later years of production would skew such an adjustment calculation....hmmm...interesting nonetheless...Carew also surprised me...
good topic...thanks Peter.
Jason L

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Posted By: Mark L

The scope of the topic had not escaped my notice. My father raised me to admire the line drive hitter and to feel only contempt and (or) pity for the hitter who always swings from the heels. Nonetheless, it seems to me that the Babe hit for a pretty good average and had a nice on base percentage. Same goes for Gehrig. Furthermore, I would draw a distinction between the hitter who hits mostly singles and the greater hitter who hits for a similar average but who also sometimes doubles to left and then triples to right.

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Posted By: peter chao

Mark,

I suppose your talking about the Joe Jackson type of hitter, possibly the best example of this type of hitting is Rogers Hornsby and modernly Ichiro.

Peter

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Posted By: dennis

it is extra nice when those line drives land in the seats!

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Posted By: Jim

Tony Gwynn was a helluva hitter but my goodness he's gotten large!

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Posted By: howard

The fact that any rating system shows that Gwynn was the greatest hitter ever indicates that, if anything, he is getting TOO much glory.

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Posted By: jay behrens

All I have to say about this HOF class is that one of the players is severely overhyped and the other doesn't get enough credit. I'll let you all figure out which on is which

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: Brett

Have you guys seen how many more at bats Ichiro gets than the rest of the hitters ? He averages almost 700 at bats per season. I'm sure that helps him get the high number of hits a season ge gets. Kind of like Pete Rose. He has the most hits ever, but it took him like 2500 more at bats than Ty Cobb to do it.

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Posted By: Joe D.

If someone asks me who was(is) the best hitter I had the good fortune to watch play....
it is Tony Gwynn.

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Posted By: Paul

I haven't read the book, but I suspect the author is coming up with essentially an adjusted batting average. His top 11 list is a credible list of players with the highest batting average, adjusting for era, ballparks, etc. I would agree it is not a credible list of overall hitting since only one power hitter is on the list.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

Ruth hit .342
Ruth had a .690 career SA
Ruth had 714 HR
Ruth had a few seasons as a pitcher.

What does the guy have to do to make the list, bend steel in his bare hands?

I like Gwynn and think he is a legit first ballot HOFer, but a better hitter than Ruth or Williams or Cobb? I'm sorry, but any analyst who doesn't place Ruth in the top 5 (I'd say top 2) batters of all time has got his head in his ... analysis

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Posted By: Rob Dewolf

When you have people making -- I assume serious -- statements like this:

I know your (sic) probably insulted that Babe wasn't mentioned in the top ten. Just remember, we're talking about the best hitters and not the best power-hitters.

then you get lists of the Top-10 all-time hitters that omit Babe Ruth.

I truly love baseball and its history, and when I see someone write something so ignorant as this, I think it's kind of sad. Honestly, I do. Unfortunately, you see stuff like this more often these days, and not just on Internet message boards about vintage baseball cards but also by folks in the media who are portrayed as being somewhat knowledgeable about the game.

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Posted By: Brett

Cobb and Ruth should be 1 - 2 on the list. Its hard to make a top 10, but besides Cobb and Ruth, you should atleast have : Hornsby, Gehrig, Williams, Mays, Aaron just to name a few.

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Posted By: Anonymous

My guess is that Schell's system places a lot of weight upon batting average relative to the league, and relatively little weight upon homeruns and slugging percentage, and obp.

That would explain Gwynn and Carew being so high, as they hit for very high averages during periods when offense was much lower.

Subjectively I don't think Gwynn and Carew are anywhere near as productive as hitters as Bonds, Ruth, Williams. The point of baseball is to score runs and a team of Ruth's beats a team of Carew's anyday, and not just because of the Babe's pitching.

Gwynn and Carew are singles hitters who are probably the best of all time at singles hitting, but that doesn't make them the greatest hitters of all time.

And to the person who said that Pete Rose only broke Cobb's record because of all his at bats, Hank Aaron did the same thing. Longevity is not a crime.

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Posted By: Rob

does anyone have a top-10 list of the greatest run producers? I'm not sure how that stat (production) gets calculated, but I wonder if gwynn and/or carew would get on that list.

Rob

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

You probably think it's sheer ignorance by the author that would allow for Ruth to be left out of the top 10. All you need to do is look at the facts, Ruth's .342 Lifetime Batting Avg. was not exceptional for his time. Also, he hit in a very favorable park for his stroke.

After having said all that, Ruth probably would have been in the top 15.

Peter

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Posted By: Josh Adams

"All you need to do is look at the facts, Ruth's .342 Lifetime Batting Avg. was not exceptional for his time."

Seriously, whatever you are on, I'd like to buy a sample.

Go Go White Sox
2005 World Series Champions!

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Posted By: howard

...you're gonna get a lot of negative feedback regarding that last post : )

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Posted By: Peter Spaeth

On the Shoeless Joe Jackson thread, Peter C., you said something to the effect that Jackson was great but not in Ruth's league.

Now you are defending a list of top hitters that (rightly) ranks Jackson near the top but omits Ruth?

This list ONLY makes sense if the only thing one cares about is batting average, to the exclusion of all other measures of what makes a hitter great. And anyone who cares only about batting average, I submit, has no understanding of baseball.

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

Anybody will tell you there's more to hitting than batting average. However, it's an important skill and Michael Schell simply says that Tony Gwynn was the best at it.

And for those that saw Carew play, ranking him number 3 is reasonable.

Peter

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Posted By: steve

Is there a uniform stat calculation for:

Hitting - Runs produced per nine inning game

Pitching - Runs allowed per nine inning game

These would get at the very root of the true object of winning baseball - the ultimate goal.

Without research, I would guess Cobb, Ruth, Williams & Musial rank at the top. Pitchers, probably Mathewson, Johnson, Lefty Grove, Koufax, and for all you non-believers, Nolan Ryan.

Steve.

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Posted By: Brett

I think when Cobb retired, he had the most career RBI. thats pretty damn good considering he played most of his career in the dead ball era. 12 batting titles... .366 or .367 career batting avg... over 700 doubles, almost 300 triples, hit over .400 3 times, 23 straight years of hitting .300 or over.. scored over 2200 runs, first hitter to reach 4000 hits and only 2nd to do it. Thats just some of the things !

Cobb is number 1