Combining Two (2) Watercooler/Sports talk threads...

[FourStrikes]

"Most Overrated Stats" and "Clayton Kershaw":

w/o factoring in K's, IP, ERA and other certainly pertinent stats re: individual greatness, in the past five years*

W-L record - Greinke: 77-24

W-L record - Kershaw: 78-30

* = of course all of these individual stats matter to many, including myself - IMO a healthy Kershaw is currently the crown jewel of the NL (MLB, perhaps)

NOT saying Greinke is the superior overall pitcher, they're both beyond solid, and made a great 1-2 (perhaps interchangeable - in a Koufax/Drysdale context - for a 3 year period in W-L speak, 51-15-vs 53-19, when they were teammates w/the Dodgers)...but...are individual W/L - according to some - REALLY the most overrated stat from a "team standings/success/value" standpoint?

agree/disagree? - either one works!...not trying to start a long-winded (metric) statistical sh!tstorm by offering two comparison/contrast points re: these two particular active threads; while (intentionally) disregarding other pitchers' individual stats by presenting just these two's status as "best" pitchers, W-L wise, there's arguably a correlation of each individual's true value to their individual team's success.

disclaimer: I'm a baseball fan, and not even close to considering myself a Dodger fan.

JMO

DS

[bravos4evr]

Wellllllll, that's kinda not a very good interpretation of a pitcher's value. Team wins are contingent on things out of a pitcher's control (like say offense and the team's defense) I shall demonstrate:


Pitcher A goes 18-5 with a 6.7 K per 9 and 2.3 BB per 9 3.79 ERA and FIP over 202 inn.

Pitcher B goes 13-7 with a 9.6 K per 9 and 2.2 Bb per 9 2.88 ERA and FIP over 203 inn.

who was better? Who provided the most chance of winning for his team? I would say it's obviously player B, his higher K/BB ratio meant less stress on his defense, his lower ERA and FIP meant he was allowing less baserunners and run scoring chances.

The difference in wins can be summed up by revealing who they are:

Pitcher A is Cliff Lee for the 2010 Indians who went 93-69 that year

Pitcher B is Jake Peavy for the 2010 Padres who went 82-80 that year

If you put Peavy on the Indians you would expect his wins to go up a lot just by having a better team around him.


To use your Greinke Kershaw comparison, if they had played for the Twins the past 5 years their wins would be much lower and so the win stat ,in and of itself, doesn't tell us much about a pitcher's production.

[FourStrikes]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

Wellllllll, that's kinda not a very good interpretation of a pitcher's value. Team wins are contingent on things out of a pitcher's control (like say offense and the team's defense) I shall demonstrate:


Pitcher A goes 18-5 with a 6.7 K per 9 and 2.3 BB per 9 3.79 ERA and FIP over 202 inn.

Pitcher B goes 13-7 with a 9.6 K per 9 and 2.2 Bb per 9 2.88 ERA and FIP over 203 inn.

who was better? Who provided the most chance of winning for his team? I would say it's obviously player B, his higher K/BB ratio meant less stress on his defense, his lower ERA and FIP meant he was allowing less baserunners and run scoring chances.

The difference in wins can be summed up by revealing who they are:

Pitcher A is Cliff Lee for the 2010 Indians who went 93-69 that year

Pitcher B is Jake Peavy for the 2010 Padres who went 82-80 that year

If you put Peavy on the Indians you would expect his wins to go up a lot just by having a better team around him.


To use your Greinke Kershaw comparison, if they had played for the Twins the past 5 years their wins would be much lower and so the win stat ,in and of itself, doesn't tell us much about a pitcher's production.

thanks - while certainly convoluted (MY post) - it's why I combined the two threads - you nailed what I was getting at ("...disregarding other pitchers' individual stats") and I cannot / won't argue with your reasoning! - again, you nailed it!

happy collecting!

DS