OK T206 EXPERTS- How Many T206 survive today????

[mrvster]

Spinning off of the 3500 + T206 find and Rick Q....

how many T206 do you believe survive today???
my guess- 2 million +

has this poll been done before

anyway, I d love to hear thoughts......

[t206hound]

Someone else had mentioned that the Chesapeake is really a collection, not a find. I have sold right at 3000 T206s in the last 4 years, so it doesn't take a long time to acquire that volume these days; although to hold them is impressive. Regardless it's a lot of cards hitting the market at once.

I'd guess that there's in the 2M range as well... plus or minus a quarter million.

[bbcard1]

The T206 set is the perfect storm. I think it's just as likely that 3500 more cards on the market is more likely to increase interest and therefore prices than it is to decrease because the impact to supply is minimal on a per card basis.

There are several reasons T206s have enduring popularity, a few of them being:

1) There is enough supply that on some level they can be actively collected
2) They are a pretty card
3) There are a lot of variations
4) There are some truly difficult/iconic cards
5) They are old
6) They have an exceptional player selection

[wolf441]

Originally Posted by mrvster

Spinning off of the 3500 + T206 find and Rick Q....

how many T206 do you believe survive today???
my guess- 2 million +

has this poll been done before

anyway, I d love to hear thoughts......

Hey Johnny,

I think 2MM + is a good estimate. If you look at Frank's Monster Number thread (and I'm sure that some cards have moved between collections since some monster numbers were originally posted), there's about 40,000 T206's listed. And that's just a small subset of Net54 members who chose to participate in the thread...

[packs]

One person had amassed 1400 T206s in just over 3 years of distribution according to the other find that was posted last week.

This collection was said to be in its original state and was maintained and collected by the original owner, who was the consignor's grand father.

So that was one person. Multiply that by the millions of other people who smoked cigarettes over that period.

Even if just one million people had received 100 cards over three years of distribution, that's 100,000,000 cards. If only 5 percent survived today that accounts for 5,000,000 cards.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by packs

One person had amassed 1400 T206s in just over 3 years of distribution according to the other find that was posted last week.

This collection was said to be in its original state and was maintained and collected by the original owner, who was the consignor's grand father.

So that was one person. Multiply that by the millions of other people who smoked cigarettes over that period.

Even if just one million people had received 100 cards over three years of distribution, that's 100,000,000 cards. If only 5 percent survived today that accounts for 5,000,000 cards.

this seems like a reasonable estimate...but I'm guessing fewer that 5m survive today.

[Northviewcats]

After seeing all of T206s at Nationals I would estimate "billions and billions"

[mrvster]

i have been dreaming of populations of T206 for years....and to imagine a lot of my scraps are "one of a kinds" or "twins" out of literally millions of T206 cards.....or owning a few variations or rare backs relative to the total population is just mind blowing

makes me happy

[ullmandds]

maybe someone can convince the census bureau to include this question in future versions!

[mrvster]

OMG!Great idea

[tedzan]

The guesstimate of 2 Million is a good ballpark number.

Scot Reader, in his very informative book "Inside T206", estimated approx. 1.6 Million. This translates to approx. 3000 cards
each per most Stars & Commons.

And of course, guys like Wagner, Plank, Magie, Lundgren (Cubs), Dahlen (Brooklyn), Elberfeld (Wash. portrait), and the two
St. Louis variations are an order of magnitude less than 3000 each.

Furthermore......only 8 (to date) authentic cards of the Joe Doyle Nat'l are known. I anticipate, that at best, a handful more
will eventually surface.


But, the Monste continues to surprise us with more finds....so, anyone's guess as to the actual numbers is as good as any.



T-Rex TED
__________________________________________________ _____________________________________
LOOKING for this T206 guy to complete my EXCLUSIVE 12 red HINDU sub-set (12 subjects)

SHECKARD (glove)
.

[DeafSports]

Ted,

Im at 68 of T206 Taylor right now so i guess I'm 2932 short now

Anyone have Taylor ready for me?

Best,
Danny

[oldjudge]

More than the number of grains of sand on all the world's beaches. Or, only slightly less than the aggregate weight of all the table holders at the National.

[clydepepper]

2,049,837

Don't ask me how I know...I just do

[vthobby]

Raymond,

While rummaging (at 4:57am this morn) I found a long lost T206 common in my treasures....

so just wanted to update your precise running total....

2,049,838....... there..... that's better,

Take care,

Mike

[shernan30]

Around 3,567,324.75, there are a lot of chewed up ones leading to the actual number not being whole.

[mrvster]

we could do a T206 census....like Pete said

[Rollingstone206]

...

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Rollingstone206

I'd naturally believe HOF member cards would have a higher survival rate than commons.

Thoughts!?

And a higher submission rate than common cards, IMHO, all things (rare backs, Titus, etc.) considered.

Best regards,

Eric

[deucetwins]

Do we get a free T-shirt from Leon if we guess the correct amount or closest to it without going over?

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by Rollingstone206

The 1.6M estimate with 3,000 cards per common card in my opinion seems too high.

I'd really like to see someone talented crunch the numbers draw a total estimate based on the HOF member cards most submitted for grading. I think thats a better sample to use for calculating what is surviving. Maybe even a wakeup call on how many are in existence if the number is less than 1.6M since I'd naturally believe HOF member cards would have a higher survival rate than commons.

Thoughts!?

I actually think this number could be low. The percentage of graded vs non graded cards overall would skew heavily to non graded. There are so many T206's out there.

[Orioles1954]

There are undoubtedly several million T206 cards surviving. It was the 1987 Topps set of the age on steriods. I've handled approximately a hundred thousand.

[Rollingstone206]

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[Rollingstone206]

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[wazoo]

11

[deadballfreaK]

Originally Posted by Rollingstone206

For example how many ungraded Ty Cobb cards are out there? I just don't see there being a mass number ungraded horded away. Thats one of my rationale of using HOF member cards as samples to calculate a pure estimate on number of all T206 in existence.

My monster number is 519 plus about 30 dupes. Only about 10 graded cards in the whole lot and they are commons. As least 300 I've had for 35-40 years. I know most collectors aren't into raw cards like I am, but gotta think there are a lot of ungraded cards in collections and attics.

[JollyElm]

Take it for what it's worth, but there are a couple of issues here.

Firstly, the thought of basing it on the number of HOF'ers graded is problematic, because you have a lot of players like, in my mind, Hughie Jennings and Rube Marquard, who are generally in the category of 'forgotten.' I mean everyone knows who Ty Cobb is, but a lot of the other HOF'ers never held the same prominence to be remembered forever, as it were, so it's easy to imagine their cards were more readily thrown out over the years.

Secondly, although professional card grading is de rigueur among you serious collectors, it is still virtually unknown to the non-collecting masses. Of all the guys I grew up trading with, I can say without question that not a single one has ever gotten a card graded. And all of these guys amassed thousands upon thousands of cards. Granted, these aren't T206 collectors, just 50's - 70's Topps cards, but you see my point. I dare say most older folks who have tobacco cards squirreled away somewhere in their attics have probably never even thought of having them graded.