PSA Likely to be Sold...Then Out of Business?

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Posted By: Anonymous

That's right. Here's why.



PSA is a subsidiary of Collectors Universe (CLCT). PSA is about 1/4 of the business with 1/2 being coin grading and another 1/4 other. They have lost an average of $2 million in each of the last 4 quarters plus another $11 million of impairment. Their stock price is $2.70, going down every week. This gives it a market capitalization of $25 Million. But their Cash on Hand is $23 Million. Therefore the company is already valued at just $2 Million, less the Cash. One year from now the Cash on hand will be around $17 Million. Just $10 Million in two years. They haven't made a profit in years and it isn't going to start now, not even with 1/10th point grading.



Also, quantities of graded cards dropped significantly last quarter, to its lowest level in 8 quarters. And this is before the impact of the Economy which is sure to drop it further. Plus, don't forget that card grading is NOT a consummable. Primarily, once a card is graded, it doesn't need to be graded again. Therefore the population has its limits.



So what will happen next? The Company isn't going to just lose money for three years until bankruptcy. With the low stock price, the Board of CLCT needs to do something fast. Liquidation is a possibility. But I would expect that one of the subsidiaries will be sold. That would probably be PSA since it's smaller and can't absorb overhead like the coins division. But who would buy it? Who knows. But think how, not who.



PSA, the card grading division, can still make money in private hands, not having to pay for SEC work, Auditors, SOX compliance, etc. But any buyer would still have to lower costs or raise revenue. What do you think would happen? My thoughts are that someone would capitalize on the PSA name for a couple years by loosening up grading standards. Afterall, who wouldn't pay $100 to get a PSA 8 HOF'er. But this will dilute the Brand and quickly cause a loss of trust and eventually the company's demise. But not before the new owners make some money. Maybe! Afterall, they would have to move the equipment to their own headquarters and start all over. Is it worth the capital investment?



Another reason for their demise is the fraudulent slabs. Who can rely on a PSA slab now? And the scammers will get better, quickly! The future is with a small boutique-like company with tamper-proof holders, hologram flips, Computer grading, and on-line scans of all the cards for comparison purposes. That will be expensive, but there may be a market for it.



The PSA Registry will eventually go away too. The new owners are sure to grade cards like CSA and PRO. Who cares if your T206 is NrMt or better - it may be trimmed. The #1 rated Registry set will be like having 100,000 frequent flier miles...with Eastern Airlines.



I predict this will all happen within 4 years. The sale within 1 year.

Edited the Title Only.

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Posted By: Ken McMillan

scarry if you ask me

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Posted By: Shawn Chambers

Actually, many cards are graded over and over again. NOT once. Either in hopes of bumps or because some slab cracker (hi Frank!)hated a slab and later sells the card raw to a person who re-entombs it. I'm sure certain cards have probably been graded dozens of times.

Also, new product is being put out each year from a variety of companies. PSA does most of their business with modern cards. Each year, millions more enter the market waiting to be graded.

I haven't looked at their financials lately, but don't see the scenario you are predicting with that much liquidity.

Shawn

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Posted By: Anonymous

Yes, many are graded over. That's why I said "primarily".

And that's a good point about new cards. But it's the Pokemon fans, etc. who are going to stay away most from grading due to the Economy.

i wanted to add that I am mostly a fan of grading. But this is why I'm not spending my money on it, unless for resale.

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

I have never understood why one needs to "belong" to get their cards graded by PSA, this isn't necessary by any of the other TPG companies. It seemed like a stupid business model to be so exclusionary.

If one wants a card graded by SGC all they have to do is send the card in with the appropriate amount of $$. Why would PSA limit the number of people that can do so by charging $99/year just to use them when there are competitors out there? Obviously dealers and large-submitters don't have a problem paying the up-front money, but the casual grader/collector will just go ith one of their competitors. Also, it isn't like PSA's fees are low (even after paying an up-front cost to use them)

Anyways, I always thought it was kinda dumb on their part.
-Rhett

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Posted By: Shawn Chambers

Rhett hit the nail on the head. I'm not anti-PSA, I just prefer SGC. I think the membership fee is a scam and just not worth it. I don't want to pay money just for the privilege of...paying money. I just don't think it is a good business model and I bet they would see subs increase without the membership fee.

Occasionally, I would submit a card to them if I could when I chose w/o a membership. I am NOT going to jump through hoops, though, to track down a member or shop to submit for me and involve extra people in what should be a simple process.

Shawn

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Posted By: joe brennan

"Plus, don't forget that card grading is NOT a consummable."

Even consummables will be hit hard. Start off with that $5.00 cup of coffee in the morning. Consumers now have to make a choice between that $5 cup of coffee or a gallon of gas. I see all the frills in society slowly going out of business or changing their business plan. If PSA thought the 1/2 grade bump was the answer, they are mistaken. In a better economic time, they may rebound but at the moment any company that is not offering a household staple will suffer.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: rand

some terrific points are made. when i had to choose a grading company it took me 4 months. the reason i went with sgc primarily was a great conversation with sean skeffington, no membership fee, at the time i was getting sgc graded cards on ebay cheaper than psa, their submission prices were cheaper than psa, and it was much less complicated to me to submit cards. 5 years later i never looked back.



i feel psa has not moved forward with the times. now looking through the latest mastro auction BVG has quite a few cards in there.

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Posted By: Fred C

News alert... if you haven't done it already you better get those half-grade upgrades while the gettins good...

OH NO - now what are we going to do to figure out the condition of our cardboard.

OH NO - Where will all those registry people be without the ability to show everyone on this planet that they have the best or one of the best condidtion sets in the universe?

OH NO - how are we going to determine card prices now that PSA, arguably the standard in grading (hahahahaha), is no longer going to be around to hype card prices with their SMR?

OH NO - and this is probably the worse of it all... WHO ARE WE GOING TO KICK AROUND IF THEY WILL BE GONE SOON?

I'm getting a head ache just thinking about this...

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Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth

David Hall continues to add to his holdings. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CLCT

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Posted By: Jay

You are assuming a cash burn of $6+ million per year. Since CLCT has eliminated it's cash dividend the burn rate is more on the order of $2 million per year. You need to get your facts correct before you start posting like this.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Many people don't like the $99 admission fee, but it does get you six free submissions, a one year subscription to the SMR Report, and a free gift (mine was a PSA tote bag when I first joined). When you add all that up, you are getting something for that $99. In fact the cost of six submissions plus the magazine is worth nearly all of that $99.

Whether you like PSA or not, to say they charge $99 to become a member is not entirely accurate.

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Posted By: Joann

It's not a membership fee, but it does create an effective minimum annual volume of 6 submissions per submittor.

It's really not a bad idea if their business model is to try to avoid the disportionate cost and effort that go into trying to service a large number of extremely small orders. That's an issue in just about any business that deals - naturally or by design - in volume processing. A lot of companies have minimum order quantities. PSA just solves it by charging for 6 up front. If you take them throughout the year, fine. But if you don't, you have paid enough to make it worth their while.

The real question is how SGC can take the onesies and twosies and be competitive. Now that's something.

Joann

PS: I know. Some people will send in their six submissions one card at a time, so PSA is effectively processing six small orders anyways. But at least in those cases the customer set-up is already done. But more likely is that people who have prepaid for six will send in more than one card at a time, or even all six. Anything that gets them off one-person-one-card-one-time increases efficiency.

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Posted By: Dan Paradis

Joann, PSA requires you to send all of your "free" submissions at the same time.

Dan

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Posted By: Shawn Chambers

Barry,



I still think it's a ripoff. The $99 for six subs is over $16 per sub not including shipping both ways. Notice I don't include the SMR because most people treat it like a joke. Anyone that wants the SMR, can find issues anytime. I don't like it forced upon me. VCP would be better as a "forced" option. The free gift I can do without.

Why not at least lower the membership, drop the SMR and and "gift" which you can usually find on ebay for a few bucks anyway. I just think that the $99 is as inflated as those corn removal kits on late night TV with a suggested retail price of $49.99...who suggested THAT price!



Shawn

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Posted By: Joann

Ohhh. You're right. The last time I had an annual membership was 2006, so I forgot about that.

So they have you at a minimum of 6 per year per customer. I'd have to think about how that plays out if someone only wants to send in one or two after that. It's some mix of size of customer and size of order. Either way, it's a pretty good mechanism for trying to filter out the small, occasional orders and customers. But I do wonder if there is something in their business or process such that filtering out small customers (less than 6 submissions per year) is a goal as opposed to filtering out small orders (one customer sends in 20 cards, but one at a time). Maybe not - it's all circling around the issue of EOQ's in some way.

Joann

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Posted By: Eric B

Jay, dividends are not part of the calculation of profit/loss.

But that was a good comment. So I went ahead and reviewed their cash burn rate. Over the last 3 years the USED $10.5, $9.7, and $13.3 Million of Cash. Remove the dividends and they USED $8.3, $8.7, and $10.7 Million of cash. That still averages more than the $2 Million per quarter I first mentioned.

And since you brought it up, how often does a company suspended dividends and prevent bankruptcy. I'll tell you.....almost never.

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Posted By: Shawn Chambers

Joann,

I think it is just a revenue device period.

Most people submit multiple cards, I believe. With shipping both ways plus fees it would have to be a pretty valuable card to warrant a lone submission. If it were this valuable, PSA fees increase enough to cover the hassle of the single submission.

They normally offer special rates with X minimum card submission and I know a lot of people who only submit during these deal times. I still believe they would get more subs without the imposed $99 startup cost.

Shawn

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Posted By: Martin Neal

I usually wait until I have some relatively high dollar cards and then send them in with my renewal fee ( I think it is only $89.00). You usually receive the free submissions back pretty quickly and at $15.00 per card it is not that bad. I have also received a couple of pretty nice books. Overall, I think it is a little better than a wash.
The bulk of my submissions go to Sgc. I switched a couple of years ago because of the inconsistencies with Psa.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Shawn- you are correct that $99 is more than you typically pay for six submissions, and not everyone wants that journalistic classic the SMR Report. However, I was making the point that it doesn't actually cost $99 to join. You send them $99 upfront, then get most of it back in services and product. And yes, the unused portion of that $99 does go into their pockets.

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Posted By: Steve

I still think it's a ripoff. The $99 for six subs is over $16 per sub not including shipping both ways.



What you fail to see is that for 16.00 plus shipping both ways you can send in 6 cards that
normally would have cost 35.00 per to grade.

Those that subscribe or re subscribe send in higher valuable cards, not cards that they
normally could send in for 8.00. An added plus is that you get your grades in a week
and they are normally back in your hands within 2.


Is it a perfect system? Who knows.


Steve

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Posted By: Shawn Chambers

Hey Steve,

I get your point, but there are thousands of collectors like me who don't own ANY cards that would cost $35 dollars per to grade! Most of my cards aren't even worth $35!!

Shawn

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Posted By: Steven Finley

I'm not entirely sure you have to pay a $99 dollar membership fee just to submit. If I'm correct, you can still submit to PSA at the normal going rate, you just won't have access to the pop report and set registries. Like I said I'm not entirely sure sure I'm accurate on that because since getting back into collecting in the past year I've only submitted to BVG and SCG. I do however own many PSA slabbed cards ranging from N28's to 2008's and readily have absolutely no need for the pop report. I have a feeling that is true for many collectors also. There aren't very many people who can afford the "Second highest graded" of a species like say American Caramel or very many auctioneers who frequently have said cards up for grabs, but to those people the pop report is a wonderful tool. For the average Joe like me though, the "set fillers" of other collections become my cornerstones. A big giant A makes me smile just as much as a 7 or 8. I'm sure PSA understands this and allows for individual submissions without the membership fee. It's just hard to imagine such a company would deny itself that much additional business.
I honestly doubt that PSA goes under either. Joe O is a smart man (i.e. Cobb/Edwards) and there are a lot of businesses struggling at the moment.

Also has anyone considered a PSA/SCG or PSA/BVG merger? It would be possible that such a move would both lower submission fees and increase tech/security fairly quickly.

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Posted By: Steven Finley

Actually sorry, I am the weakest link. I think I was incorrect. The membership fee may be standard.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Doesn't the $99 fee also get you free burial in the PSA National Cemetery in Bismark, North Dakota?



Trivia quiz: okay, oldtime TV buffs, please identify my reference above.

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Posted By: Joe D.

a bit of a reckless title for a thread.



edit out one line.

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Posted By: joe brennan

A heads up for anyone planning a 100+ card bulk sub - the rates will be changing from $6 per card to $7. This was from a letter that was returned with my last submission. It didn't mention any other changes for cards, just some $50 surcharge for premium psa/dna items valued at $1500 or more.

I wonder how this will effect the submissions of regular (ie. non low pop) nm/mt 60's commons or lower dollar modern cards, which may not have even been worth submitting for $6 a card?


Another way to pull customers in.

In Rememberance of James W. Brennan Sr. 1924-1982. Dad, thanks for everything you did for me.

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Posted By: Jay

Eric B--Your calculation is still wrong. Dividends were about $8 million per annum, not $2 million. That would get your burn rate correct.

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Posted By: rand

when i first started in the hobby i joined psa and was thrilled to recieve the pamphlets, smr, ect... i never did send in my free subs. i decided to go with sgc and only used SMR as a base for me to work with on buying cards on ebay, as i got more knowledgeable SMR wasnt the crutch i needed anymore. i did not renew my subscription after the first year. i have a good friend that submits to psa so i send him the occassional card that i am selling if psa is a better venue. i can buy a terrific card for $99 instead of giving it to psa for a magazine subscription. there is so much psa material available now, i dont see the need (for me) to ever have to send psa a card for grading.

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Posted By: Alan

PSA offers a really nice lunch for members on one of the days during the National !!!

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Posted By: dan mckee

That $99 fee was done away with at one time. That is when I mailed them 26 T206 cards. They quickly added it back thinking to keep the low life's out like Dan Mckee from falsely accusing them of losing cards. The $99 can now be called the Dan Mckee fee!

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Posted By: Anonymous

Jay, I used the wrong line and 2008 was incorrect. Here are the new numbers.

Over the last 3 years the USED $19.0, $9.7, and $13.3 Million of Cash. Remove the dividends and they USED $10.5, $6.4, and $12.6 Million of cash. Still worse

Here it is directly from the 10K for 2008, 2007, and 2006 to look at yourself.

Decrease in cash and cash equivalents (19,041 ) (9,724 ) (13,329 )
Dividends paid to common stockholders (8,517 ) (3,350 ) (674 )

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089143/000108914308000008/mainfile.htm#csofcashflows

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Posted By: Jay

Eric--I am focusing in on cash used in operating activities. Last year they burned $2.2 million and for 2009 they are projecting a similar figure (per the conference call). The reason for the higher cash burn in the past was the cash dividend, the startup expense for the gemstone grading business and collateralized loans to dealers.

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Posted By: rand

why did you send cards to psa if you were/are so against grading. what if they graded a card lower than your opinion, what did you do with it?

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Posted By: dan mckee

Rand I use grading to sell with. Yes it is true I am not a fan of grading though the internet fraud has driven a need for it. I had purchased a large collection of tobacco and sent the first 26 cards to them. They only logged 25 cards and the rest is miserable history. SGC got the other 650+ cards and did a great job on the collection. I sold most but saved a few South League cards in 6 and 7 holders. Dan

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Posted By: Jason L

I would be bummed because I have enjoyed participating in the Registry wars to some extent, and I have overpaid on recent post-war stuff to do so (A 1984 PSA 10 Ron Cey for $5-10 is overpaying)...
BUT!
on the other hand, if we removed the TPG, then I would be more likely to collect for purer reasons...and save a ton of room on storage space!!!

For instance, I don't collect vintage with an eye to the grades for reasons of Registries. I collect SGC graded vintage because I trust their graders on authenticity and I like the holders' aesthetics. (I can't compete on condition with pre-war stuff, anyway)

With post-war, I collect PSA because the holders add value and it was fun to compete on some things.

Without PSA around, I would feel freer to be satisfied with a postwar card in VG-EX or EX condition, rather than stretch to obtain the PSA 7...

Hmmm....

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Posted By: Anonymous

I hear you Jay. I'm not really disagreeing. My point is the CLCT company is falling apart, therefore it is my opinion the PSA portion will be sold. I do believe it can be a viable stand-alone entity but it would be extremely difficult for the new owners to keep grading standard EXACTLY the same.

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Posted By: Jay

Barry--One of the perks (if you were Racoon of the year) for being a member of the Racoon Lodge

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Posted By: Bob

How is GAI doing these days, anyone heard any rumblings? I used to use them quite a bit but since the debacle have used SGC 100% for pre-war cards.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Thanks Jay for seeing my quiz. And of course you won the prize!

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Posted By: Craig W

Barry & Jay,

Actually, it was "Free burial with spouse at Raccoon National Cemetery in Bismark, North Dakota."

http://freemasonry.bcy.ca/fiction/fraternities/raccoons.html

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Posted By: barrysloate

I remember Alice said: now that I know that, I don't know if I would rather live or die (I am paraphrasing).

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Posted By: David M

It's hard to believe where the economy has gone in the past year - actually ever since 9/11. First the airlines, then the banks and mortgage companies, the auto industry and now PSA.

Actually, I was never a fan of slabbed cards a few years ago - I wanted to touch and smell the old cardboard. Most of us here on the forum could grade a card NM or VG without paying someone to do it. My interest changed a few years ago when I started buying lots, stars and sets that were NM or better - and they were ALWAYS OVERGRADED. Then came the registry and a new interest on my part, not mention a great way to track cards for insurance purposes.

Today I only buy graded. Sure some cards are a bit off with grading but I have just as many 8's that should by 7's, but at least I know within 95% assurance that the card is NM (and no surprise miscut on the back!).

I hope PSA hangs around and weathers the storm of the financial crisis, that goes for all collectors too. PSA provides a value to the end user, like it or not.

I'm rooting for no more layoffs and locked doors at Topps, Upper Deck and PSA.

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Posted By: Peter

As a collector (although not in the league of many of you on this board), I think it is best for PSA, SGC, BVG & GAI to be as strong as possible. I hope all of them have successful registries and I think it is good for all card collectors if these companies are strong. The registries are fun an dit is interresting to do crossovers etc. It is also good for the promotion of the hobby and the value of our collections. Just my opinion

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Posted By: T206Collector

Registries provide an irrational demand for cards that artificially raises prices. Consider this: if PSA ever does truly go bankrupt, the value of their registry will decrease and the cards along with it. In my opinion, card values should be based on supply and demand, absent such considerations.

In addition, population reports offer nothing more than a somewhat myopic view as to relative scarcity. While there is some reasonable relation to price and population reports, the myriad of variables that cannot be controlled for (e.g., multiple submissions of the same card, HOFers being submitted more than commons, etc.) make them inherently unreliable.

Using a grading company to get third-party certification of condition is one thing -- and quite useful and necessary in an internet market for cards -- but all of the peripheral considerations are, in my view, a bubble just waiting to be burst.



_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Visit http://www.t206collector.com for Net54 T206 archive, signed deadball card galleries, articles and more!

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Posted By: Dean H.

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=692768

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Posted By: leon

I guess it did get some attention. I think the title of the thread was an eye catcher and somewhat inappropriate....regards

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Posted By: Anonymous

Would you like me to change the title?

That was a nice post by Mr. orlando. I always liked his writing style. I'm not saying PSA is poorly run. Or has bad employees. Or not a profitable subsidiary. But they are going to be stuck "in the middle" of the parent company's survival, imo. And it will happen soon.

Bury this thread and look back at it 6 months from now.

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Posted By: leon

That is up to you if you want to change it. I try to not tell people what to say or post, per the forum rules...and this wasn't against the rules. I do think it was a bit unfair for PSA....It's your call....It is an interesting discussion.....regards

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Posted By: Anonymous

There we go.

BTW, the latest quarter saw 301,600 submissions, down 49,400 or 14% from the previous quarter. Plus stock hit a new low.

Let's see what happens in the next year.