When it comes to Mantle, is it better...

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by steve B

then buying the best you can afford isn't a bad way to go. Better cards sell easier and sell easier still in better condition.
Short term better cards are an even better play. Being high bidder on a worn card means probably having to wait at least a couple years before it will be worth enough to not lose money.

I find the opposite to be true for the vast majority of cards. Sure, HOFers in high grade normally rise, but high grade commons in some sets have plummeted. Check the thread I created when PSA came out with their Auction Prices Realized tool; the 1952 PSA 8-9s that averaged $10,000 in 2008 or so sold for $2,000 each in 2010.
I think there's more financial upside in oddball and rare issues, personally. We still haven't had a stock market crash in 10 years. So maybe the best plan for a new collector who hasn't decided yet is to save up money when collectors liquidate during a crash?

[steve B]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I find the opposite to be true for the vast majority of cards. Sure, HOFers in high grade normally rise, but high grade commons in some sets have plummeted. Check the thread I created when PSA came out with their Auction Prices Realized tool; the 1952 PSA 8-9s that averaged $10,000 in 2008 or so sold for $2,000 each in 2010.
I think there's more financial upside in oddball and rare issues, personally. We still haven't had a stock market crash in 10 years. So maybe the best plan for a new collector who hasn't decided yet is to save up money when collectors liquidate during a crash?

I'd have to wonder why that happened. Did the high prices bring out a lot of nice cards for grading? Or did the few people who could afford to try for a 52 set in 8-9 complete sets or give up? 8-9 I'd think is primarily a registry competition thing and once the few really tough cards are locked up in a couple collections the competition that drove prices stops.


I'm nowhere near on that league, so even at 2,000 they wouldn't fall into the "best I can afford" category.

I was thinking more along the lines of whether I wait for a 5 or buy a 4 now. Or maybe even take a chance on a nice looking card and send it in myself. (Or just buying it and not bothering with grading)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by steve B

I'd have to wonder why that happened. Did the high prices bring out a lot of nice cards for grading? Or did the few people who could afford to try for a 52 set in 8-9 complete sets or give up? 8-9 I'd think is primarily a registry competition thing and once the few really tough cards are locked up in a couple collections the competition that drove prices stops.


I'm nowhere near on that league, so even at 2,000 they wouldn't fall into the "best I can afford" category.

I was thinking more along the lines of whether I wait for a 5 or buy a 4 now. Or maybe even take a chance on a nice looking card and send it in myself. (Or just buying it and not bothering with grading)

The reason some cards are or were low pop purely had to do with centering. I suspect that when the demand became really high from ego-driven registry guys, people either pressured PSA to give some borderline cards 8s, and/or trimmed and got some through. And as supply increased, prices eventually came down to earth. That, plus set collecting seems generally to have dropped at least in high grades.