Does Jose Bautista piss you off?

[ls7plus]

Let's see, now, 18 homeruns in 136 at bats--approximately one every 7.5 trips to the plate; .353 batting average. Should he maintain the homerun pace, as a follow-up to the 54 homer year literally out of nowhere, he would hit around 72 in a full season's worth of AB's. Conclustion: Bautista's homers are clearly every bit as legitimate as those of Bonds, Sosa and McGwire! There's a part of me that still likes McGwire, although I remain conflicted. But frankly, the way I look at it, if you guys think Bautista is OK, then there's nothing, literally nothing at all, I should hold against Big Mac. Thanks for the help in the conflict resolution!


Sure he's a late bloomer--he went from being Ron Swoboda, career-wise, to being every bit as good as the three gentlemen mentioned in the first paragraph. It doesn't matter how many supposed similar cases you guys try to come up with. IT IS, BEYOND THE REALM OF ANY REASONABLE DISPUTE, ASSUMING HE CONTINUES AT ANYTHING RESEMBLING THIS PACE, AN UNASSAILABLE FACT THAT THERE ARE EXACTLY ZERO OTHER SIMILAR EXAMPLES.

But I tire of the discussion, as there really seems to be virtually nothing to discuss. I just think we all went down the very same path in 1998-2001 or so, and we can all take off our blinders now. With the way pitching has evolved today, with so many pitchers having a repetoire that includes a four-seam fastball with peak velocity, that comes in straight, or even with a hop; two-seam fastball that sinks; change-up which moves the opposite way as a curve;
slider and/or curve, hitting has become significantly more difficult, rendering it even less likely such a phenomenon could even conceivably occur naturally.

Thanks for all of your inputs,

Larry

[steve B]

Very fast fastballs that don't move? I'd always heard those were the pitches that major league hitters hit particularly well.....

Overall batting hasn't become harder. The overall league average has changed little since 1900! There are lows and highs, but the lows are in the .240's and the highs in the .270's with .260's being typical.
National league 1921-1930 was the peak, being mostly over .280, 1930 the league average was over .300 - DARN GUYS IN THE 20'S MUSTA BEEN ON SOMETHING! - (probably booze and a diffferent attitude twoards batting brought on by Ruth)

We maybe have a right to suspect anyone hitting at a rate better than 10ab/hr. Very few batters have done it for a full season, fewer still that are assumed to be clean. (Ruth and Thome) We should really revisit this maybe at the AS break, and again near the end of the season. My prediction? Either a season around 47HR with an injury or a major slump late in the year, or positive test sometime after the AS break. (Or after the season if he's in the HR derby)

Some interesting stuff here http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_hr3.shtml

Still a lot of guys that supposedly weren't on anything who hit a ton of HR in a month. Rudy york had 18 in August of 37 Mantle had 16 in May of 56. Both months were probably in the low 7ab/hr range.

Steve B

[majordanby]

baseball reference have the following players listed as "similar" to bautista up to age 29

Mack Jones (946)
Dan Pasqua (945)
Gorman Thomas (943)
Jimmie Hall (938)
Willie Kirkland (938)
Gary Roenicke (936)
Eric Hinske (935)
Jay Buhner (932)
Jonny Gomes (932)
Don Lock (932)

[collectbaseball]

Bautista is clearly a beast of epic proportion, but I think it is a little naive to assume that he will "keep up this pace" for some very significant amount of time. You can't just extrapolate his numbers and say he's on pace to hit however many hundreds of home runs over the next three years. Lyle Overbay was on pace for like 170 RBI at some point in the 2004 season. If you really think numbers project like that, I'd like to formally extend an invitation to my fantasy league. Tons of random people go on very hot streaks for half-seasons and seasons. His is bit longer, but it's hard to believe that he will keep it up forever. (That's not to say he will decline significantly, but that I think it would basically be impossible for any human being to keep up his pace).

I've got a few more late bloomers for you to consider: what about someone like Dante Bichette, who didn't have anything really resembling a "good" year until his sixth year in the majors at age 29, and went on to hit 40 homers and bat .340 at age 31? (Granted, that was in Colorado during the steroid era). Gorman Thomas played four miserable years then came back and was a much better hitter (beginning at age 27). Hank Sauer didn't do a whole lot in the minors until he was 29, had a ridiculous year at age 30 in AAA ball, and then came up to the bigs and walloped the ball as a 31 year old.

While it's okay to be skeptical (I think that would've served some of those May 21st doomsdayers well), I think Bautista's probably for real.