Modern cards that the prices can't last on ?

[Rookiemonster]

So sometime the cards the we think are valuable don't stay that way any ideas on what's has no real value to it . For instance if Derek jeter continues to sign autograph until he's 93 years old at a high pace will they still have value ? Or if every year a there is a refractor of mike trout every year for 20 year will there be a market for them ?

[swarmee]

95% of modern cards are devalued within months of release due to the availability of them online. It's kind of fascinating watching the first Kris Bryant card from each set sell for $12-25 on COMC before the flood them come in and start getting priced at $3. At least last year, the Topps Tek reintroduction had some legs, but now most of those base cards can be found cheap. And the people spending $50 for low-printed, but non-numbered variations are probably kicking themselves.
1/1 cards, due to how many Topps prints out, are losing their steam as well. I think too many investors have lost their shirt on them and are now no longer willing to spend so much in order to have them the first go-around, expecting them to be re-listed regularly.

[JustinD]

I would say all, but Jordan is the exception to the rule so another may someday exist.

The essence of modern card collecting lies in gambling. It's the heart of the marketing for the new releases. You spend a ton in the hopes of a hit. The only chance of even making your money back is buying the freshest release and flipping within days hoping the excitement draws higher bids from set builders or holding rc's praying one pans out.

The moment a player retires if he does not maintain a HOF career the cards are worth 20% of prior sales within 6 months, even if they have a HOF career the excitement maintains about a year or two at best from investors or people thinking of them (talking to you Jeter) and dies. Value (real sales prices not silly beckett value) will drop 75% in 3 years. It will spike again the year of their HOF bid and then slowly die again.

Long term investment in modern should be illegal to call "investment".

What's smart is buying what you like and expecting that it's for you and you will likely lose money. If you want to break even, buy vintage and you will likely lose the least if you hold on it to it long term. You may be able to lottery out holding new cards short term but long term, it's like buying a new chevy Malibu and holding on to it for 6 years. You can turn your 20k into 3500 bucks...if you are lucky.

[Rookiemonster]

All good points it is like gambling or stocks if you a Tom Brady card from 2002 .
It has seen high and lows since then it just comes down to when to pull the trigger . But what I really whoild like to know is if mike trout goes on to be one of the best ever but signs for another 70 years will his autos hold up . Or if they make 30 different refractors of him every year will it still be worth something 20 years from now ?

[JustinD]

The simple answer is the law of supply and demand.

I would say of course not.

It would be what you believe -
A. If there are 800,000 of something people will continue to pay hundreds for it.
Or
B. Everyone that wants one has one so the demand trickles to a drop and it becomes very easy to get one cheap.

If you want HOF level examples look at Bob Feller, Pete Rose, Stan Musial, etc, etc, etc.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I would say all, but Jordan is the exception to the rule so another may someday exist.

The essence of modern card collecting lies in gambling. It's the heart of the marketing for the new releases. You spend a ton in the hopes of a hit. The only chance of even making your money back is buying the freshest release and flipping within days hoping the excitement draws higher bids from set builders or holding rc's praying one pans out.

The moment a player retires if he does not maintain a HOF career the cards are worth 20% of prior sales within 6 months, even if they have a HOF career the excitement maintains about a year or two at best from investors or people thinking of them (talking to you Jeter) and dies. Value (real sales prices not silly beckett value) will drop 75% in 3 years. It will spike again the year of their HOF bid and then slowly die again.

Long term investment in modern should be illegal to call "investment".

What's smart is buying what you like and expecting that it's for you and you will likely lose money. If you want to break even, buy vintage and you will likely lose the least if you hold on it to it long term. You may be able to lottery out holding new cards short term but long term, it's like buying a new chevy Malibu and holding on to it for 6 years. You can turn your 20k into 3500 bucks...if you are lucky.

+1. Very well said, Justin. Demand for the current young phenoms has a very large speculative and transient element, with the latter meaning that it shifts to the newest and latest and greatest virtually as soon as it appears. I remember (and it wasn't too long ago) that someone paid $25K on a one-of-one Strasburg refractor--would anyone pay a 50th of that now?

Best to all, and buy what you like,

Larry

[pokerplyr80]

Aside from rookies and young players who's careers don't quite pan out, I would say the cards in danger are low pop PSA 10s from the 80s. 86 Fleer Johnny Moore is the obvious one that comes to mind, but I'm sure there are others. 86 Topps Steve Young as well. There have to be so many raw cards out there and as more are discovered I would assume the prices will crash.

As was mentioned HOFers that don't go down as the greatest of the era and are forgotten by many will probably be in trouble as well.

[Rich Klein]

Kris Bryant

Just look at Jose Abreu last year to this year

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Kris Bryant

Just look at Jose Abreu last year to this year

I would say all of them..

[Peter_Spaeth]

Any and all Mike Trout cards.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Any and all Mike Trout cards.

I don't really collect modern cards, but I think Trout would be the one I would hold if I had a high end card. At least for now. I think he has a good chance to go down as the greatest player of this era. Barring injury or something else unforeseen derailing his career.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I don't really collect modern cards, but I think Trout would be the one I would hold if I had a high end card. At least for now. I think he has a good chance to go down as the greatest player of this era. Barring injury or something else unforeseen derailing his career.

I like Harper much better. Trout can't steal any more and he's only 23. He strikes out a ton. He hasn't even topped .300 the last two seasons.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I like Harper much better. Trout can't steal any more and he's only 23. He strikes out a ton. He hasn't even topped .300 the last two seasons.

Time will tell. 4 years, 1 mvp, second the other 3 years. I don't know how often that has happened, but if it ever has it hasn't been very often.

If I had been lucky enough to pull one of his rookie 1/1s or super fractors and could sell it now for 40 or 50k I'm sure I would. But I wouldn't be afraid to hold some of his other key cards at this point. That being said I haven't bought any, and don't have any to hold.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Time will tell. 4 years, 1 mvp, second the other 3 years. I don't know how often that has happened, but if it ever has it hasn't been very often.

If I had been lucky enough to pull one of his rookie 1/1s or super fractors and could sell it now for 40 or 50k I'm sure I would. But I wouldn't be afraid to hold some of his other key cards at this point. That being said I haven't bought any, and don't have any to hold.

Pujols' first four years absolutely blow Trout's away. I think people forget how remarkable he was given his time in the AL. Not that 40 HR this year was shabby, but overall he still has fallen off considerably.

[ALR-bishop]

Peter-- are you lost ? Need a mapquest back to pre war

As a long ago born and raised St Louis guy, I have always been a Pujols fan. I was glad when they made a strong effort to keep him a lifetime Cardinal like Musial, Gibson, Brock and O Smith (the latter two mostly anyway), but relieved when he went to the Angels at that price. That loss is what gave them the flexibility to stay competitive since that deal.

I still wish him well but glad the Angels will be his source of his huge salary for the next several years. And glad they have gone no where since. . Plus I worry less these days about whether he is part of the PED crowd

I did add one of his cards to my Cardinals Hall Of Fame display figuring if he is clean he is a lock ( Harper and Trout still have to get there). But not sure now if he goes in a Cardinal or an Angel

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I don't really collect modern cards, but I think Trout would be the one I would hold if I had a high end card. At least for now. I think he has a good chance to go down as the greatest player of this era. Barring injury or something else unforeseen derailing his career.

mickey mantle was injured and he turned out ok....cant use injury as an excuse or disclaimer.....larry walker could of been one of the greatest too....

[KCRfan1]

Harper and Trout are the " Player Du Jour ". Prices for their cards are so overinflated, IMO the prices have no where to go but down. If I were to look at modern cards I'm looking at players who are halfway to assembling a HoF resume or have already done so. Players who have been in the league for around 10 years or so ( maybe longer ), no longer the darling of ESPN, but are close to the best in a respective position. I imagine Kershaw could be had for a fraction of Trout or Harper. Same for Bumgardner. Perhaps Miggy would not be as costly as Harper or Trout. AP certainly isn't. Beltre is dirt cheap compared to the cards of any of the named players, and he's going to get to 3000 hits in 2017. Like him or not, Cano can be had for a decent price too.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Pujols' first four years absolutely blow Trout's away. I think people forget how remarkable he was given his time in the AL. Not that 40 HR this year was shabby, but overall he still has fallen off considerably.

I had to google it but you're definitely right about that. I think if anyone held onto a pujols rookie 1/1 or superfractor they'd be pretty happy with the value now, or a couple of years ago. I think Trout's career will follow a similar path.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I would say all, but Jordan is the exception to the rule so another may someday exist.

Long term investment in modern should be illegal to call "investment".

What's smart is buying what you like and expecting that it's for you and you will likely lose money. If you want to break even, buy vintage and you will likely lose the least if you hold on it to it long term. You may be able to lottery out holding new cards short term but long term, it's like buying a new chevy Malibu and holding on to it for 6 years. You can turn your 20k into 3500 bucks...if you are lucky.

JUSTIN DAVENPORT-- You've expressed very eloquently the trials and tribulations of modern collecting. However, you make one statement that should be put in all caps and bronzed---to be placed near the top (can't crowd the advertisers; hey, that's how Mr. Luckey makes some moolah doing this massive board!)

Anyway, I would like to quote your sentence in all caps if I may:

"WHAT'S SMART IS BUYING WHAT YOU LIKE AND EXPECTING THAT IT'S FOR YOU AND YOU WILL LIKELY LOSE MONEY." --- JUSTIN D.

If you don't love the game of baseball, and don't love the history of our national pastime, and if you don't love pictures of the men who play the summer game, why would anyone waste their life collecting baseball cards?

There is such a monetary profit mindset today. I'm fully aware this derives from unopened pack, box, case ripping, and then submitting "the gold" extracted therein, to PSA, in hopes of "cashing in", and then making a huge profit from your original purchase, whether you bought it in whole, or jointly with a group. "THE PULL" = THE WINNING LOTTERY TICKET. It's simply part of today's society mindset, and has been for a long time.

For most of my collecting life, I collected what I loved, and could afford, and sometimes what I really could not afford, because I love collecting, love baseball and its history--even though I stunk as a player myself, and I have always, and I mean always, loved pictures.

I collect a select niche of hockey cards as well, and 1/43rd scale model cars of Le Mans and historic racing sports cars, but in the end, the driving passion is because I tend to love what I like, and while it may be nice that the object appreciates in value, I have immensely enjoyed learning about the game or the sport, the history, the players and or cars, and the pursuit of the frequently difficult and challenging objects that have "gotta have it!" eye appeal, an enthralling story to them and behind them, and make for a dynamite display. People have told me they find the objects I like interesting because I make them seem interesting when I talk about them.

It's fun. The hunt and chase. Learning about the past and making that pleasant past come alive.

Keep charging, brother Justin! You're doing it right, bro!

Kind regards, Brian Powell

A tender PS for my Jim Davenport collector.

My father was a motion picture cameraman for NBC News. He was a good one. He was among those selected by NBC to film the Presidential campaign for their daily network television coverage, and all its doings, in 1964. Sadly, he was away from his wife and us kids a great deal during election years.

Anyway, I believe during the Democratic national convention in 1964, my mother flew down to be with him, for a few hours in a day. On the return flight, she happened to be on the plane with the San Francisco Giants baseball team. They were having a party on the plane--celebrating in some fashion. Anyway, they included my dear Mom in their wingding. She told me that they were very jolly, friendly, polite, and respectful to her. The two names my non-baseball fan mom remembered to her then 10-year-old baseball crazy son were Giants' scout Hank Sauer and the team's third baseman, Jim Davenport. For over 50 years, whenever I see one of my baseball cards of Hank or Jim, I remember Mom saying how nice those guys were to her. It means the world to me that they were. Just thought as a Jim Davenport fan, you just might appreciate a little memory from a baseball card-lovin' youngin from 1964.

Thanks for listening, Justin. Take care. ---Brian

[KCRfan1]

What a great story, and memories for you Brian! That was really cool!!!!

[JustinD]

Thanks Brian for the compliments and the great story!

A little background on collecting JD. As a young kid in the early 80's (maybe 82?) I remember scouting through a box of randoms at a show at the local mall and running across a 1960 Topps Jim Davenport. I was amazed at this card as this player had the exact same name as my dad and looked a lot like him. I had to spend part of my hard earned allowance to take this home and ask dad about it.

Well I turned out that, if Jimmy is related to us we don't know about it, but my dad got a chuckle out of it as he was a big Jimmy D fan as a kid. He explained how he loved that this player had the same name as him and it gave him a sense of pride.

After that day I slowly collected all the Jim Davenport cards, and then all of them Auto'ed. I still enjoy running across an oddball here and there as they usually are in photo form or during his managerial runs as they always make me think fondly of my dad.

All my player collections come from fond events in my life -

John Norlander actually is my Stepfather's dad and I love finding a fun press photo or oddball thing to see the gleam in his eye when I show it to him and my son proudly displays them all in his room.

Lance Parrish was larger than life growing up in Michigan. A monster of a man with a huge heart. I remember going to a Dodgertown game in Florida during spring training in 83' to see the Tigers play. A huge Tigers fan (and still am!) as a kid this was awesome getting to see them so close in a training setting. After the game my little brother and I saw Lance in the parking lot and I wanted an auto. We both walked up and before I could ask for an auto, my brother (who was about 5 or 6 at the time) instead asked him to play catch.

Lance smiled and said sure, then looked around and saw Steve Sax walking by. He called him over and asked Steve to help play catch with these kids. Steve Sax, Lance Parrish my brother and I tossed around a ball for about 10 minutes and I was a fan forever. I didn't get my auto that day, but I have a few hundred now...lol.

[Rookiemonster]

collecting for fun or the love of it is collecting 101 . There's no argument there . I do know that when I was a kid I loved to see the up arrow in the
New Beckett and dreaded the down arrow . Nothing feels better in
The Hobby then buying something cheap and seeing it go up . And it feels like poop to see a card you love become worthless .
So while I'm in the same boat as collect what you want and how you want .
I would not be honest if I said I didn't also collect as a investment.