Downward trend in card values?

[Neal]

Personally, I believe that baseball card collecting is slowly and surely becoming a dying hobby. Certainly less and less .....

Graded commons may not have a true place in 20 years, as no one is really stepping up and taking over our spots. I have coached Little League for many years. These kids know Trout and Jeter, but do not know about Johnny Bench. Babe Ruth is certainly known, but only as legend. Foxx? Walter Johnson? George Brett? Nope. Granted this is a small sample size but I think there is truth and merit regarding the future of our hobby. My son knows that I love collecting, and is well educated on the players of yesteryear (mostly on his own btw) but has zero interest in collecting. He loves the sport and is pretty good at it, but like all the kids that I know at his age, they simply do not collect. Most never did in the first place.

Will a high grade, low pop common variation from the 50s or 60s continue to be sought after? My guess is a resounding no.

Theories abound regarding manipulation of the market, and I agree with most of them. Are they recognizing this trend or just trying to grossly capitalize? My guess is both.

I still enjoy collecting a great deal. We all do. I am sure my collecting will continue to the degree I am comfortable with, but can't help think that the future "investment" may not be there.

[steve B]

Pretty much all collectibles go through cycles, particular things are popular for a time, then people move on to other stuff. Some of that is interest, some of it publicity, some of it just changing opinions on what is worth something.

When I started, cards were just beginning to be "valuable" nearly every postwar card was relatively inexpensive. The 52 Mantle hadn't topped 1000, and a decent Aaron rookie was 60. Hardly anyone collected the few insert sets and obscure stuff was either dirt cheap or really expensive (for then)

I've been into collecting a lot of stuff over the years, some hobbies have grown, some have not.

Coins
Stamps
Old Bottles
Beer cans
Telephone/telegraph insulators
Old radios
Old computers
Old bicycles
Action figures
Old books
Old magazines

All of them have seen some of the same things since the mid-late 90's. I've seen it called the Ebay effect.
Before Ebay, a lot of that stuff had value even for the relatively common things. (Old computers being the exception, they weren't old enough for the usual yard sale crowd. ) So you might see one reasonably nice old radio or bike a year if you went to yard sales and flea markets. More often if you were really into it and went constantly. So you bought what you could find at what seemed like a reasonable price.
Once Ebay got big enough you could find nice stuff a lot more often. Like anytime you felt like looking. And pretty soon people caught on to just how common the common stuff really is. That's true for any hobby. And once you realize that you can buy a perfect or near perfect example pretty much whenever you want to, there's no need to buy the lesser ones.
Late 90's I did pretty well buying boxes of late 80's cards for almost nothing, and selling lots of 100-400 for a few dollars. (Not counting the time I spent, which is only one reason I stopped) By say 2005 those lots wouldn't sell as well. Maybe half the time or less instead of nearly every time. People interested in random lots realized they could just buy complete sets, or much larger lots for less per card. Now there's a lot of "cheap" singles listed, commons I'd maybe want a few cents for listed for $1. Because when you need one card, it's easier to just buy it even of it's massively overpriced because in the end, it's just a dollar.

The really good stuff either continues to be really good with ups and downs, or it essentially goes into hiding until the prices come back up. (Old computers were very pricy for a while because all the dotcom guys were buying up the stuff they learned on or had as kids. )

Most hobbies never really die, they just change.

Steve B

[Neal]

Originally Posted by steve B

Pretty much all collectibles go through cycles, particular things are popular for a time, then people move on to other stuff. Some of that is interest, some of it publicity, some of it just changing opinions on what is worth something.

When I started, cards were just beginning to be "valuable" nearly every postwar card was relatively inexpensive. The 52 Mantle hadn't topped 1000, and a decent Aaron rookie was 60. Hardly anyone collected the few insert sets and obscure stuff was either dirt cheap or really expensive (for then)

I've been into collecting a lot of stuff over the years, some hobbies have grown, some have not.

Coins
Stamps
Old Bottles
Beer cans
Telephone/telegraph insulators
Old radios
Old computers
Old bicycles
Action figures
Old books
Old magazines

All of them have seen some of the same things since the mid-late 90's. I've seen it called the Ebay effect.
Before Ebay, a lot of that stuff had value even for the relatively common things. (Old computers being the exception, they weren't old enough for the usual yard sale crowd. ) So you might see one reasonably nice old radio or bike a year if you went to yard sales and flea markets. More often if you were really into it and went constantly. So you bought what you could find at what seemed like a reasonable price.
Once Ebay got big enough you could find nice stuff a lot more often. Like anytime you felt like looking. And pretty soon people caught on to just how common the common stuff really is. That's true for any hobby. And once you realize that you can buy a perfect or near perfect example pretty much whenever you want to, there's no need to buy the lesser ones.
Late 90's I did pretty well buying boxes of late 80's cards for almost nothing, and selling lots of 100-400 for a few dollars. (Not counting the time I spent, which is only one reason I stopped) By say 2005 those lots wouldn't sell as well. Maybe half the time or less instead of nearly every time. People interested in random lots realized they could just buy complete sets, or much larger lots for less per card. Now there's a lot of "cheap" singles listed, commons I'd maybe want a few cents for listed for $1. Because when you need one card, it's easier to just buy it even of it's massively overpriced because in the end, it's just a dollar.

The really good stuff either continues to be really good with ups and downs, or it essentially goes into hiding until the prices come back up. (Old computers were very pricy for a while because all the dotcom guys were buying up the stuff they learned on or had as kids. )

Most hobbies never really die, they just change.

Steve B

I remember those days where a Mantle was 1K. I remember seeing one at "Joe's Dugout" and couldn't believe the ridiculous price lol

Big difference was that we were collectors then. Not too many kids who think like we did.

[drcy]

Elvis Presley rare record prices have dropped, and Greta Garbo and Rudolf Valentino autographs (once prizes of the hobby) fell off before that.

[OsFan]

Originally Posted by drcy

Elvis Presley rare record prices have dropped, and Greta Garbo and Rudolf Valentino autographs (once prizes of the hobby) fell off before that.

True but vintage record sales overall have made a huge leap in the last ten years. Who knows if that will last?

[aconte]

Top tier HOFERS will always do well.

50's and 60's commons could drop like rocks.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Threads like this always get a lot of traction.

Everybody always worried...but yeah lots of low level stars....if POP isnt super small..most people wont know who they are later on..

If you see record highs on the big big cards...that doesnt mean much for the rest of the market...

[Exhibitman]

Here's the thing: the kids today are going to be the inheritors tomorrow of the cards we are saving today. Some of them will be enchanted by the hobby and will get into it, just as some collectors on this board got their starts with their fathers' old cards.

The stuff cycles. I have some cards that still haven't rebounded to their pre-crash price levels, when I bought them. And it isn't just cards. Check the spot price on silver lately? I remember trading some cards for silver bullion at a National a few years ago when silver was about twice its current price. D'oh!

[JollyElm]

It's all about the phones. Every single minute of every single day the youths of today are staring down at their phones. No one seems to even go outside and play anymore. If it's not something that appears on their phones, there is virtually no interest from a huge percentage of kids. When I was growing up (jeez, I sound old), every kid in class had at least some baseball cards. It was an absolutely huge part of the culture, but these days there are a bazillion other distractions for kids, so collecting takes a back seat...waaaaaaay in the back.

[OsFan]

Originally Posted by Neal

Personally, I believe that baseball card collecting is slowly and surely becoming a dying hobby. Certainly less and less .....

I have coached Little League for many years. These kids know Trout and Jeter, but do not know about Johnny Bench. Babe Ruth is certainly known, but only as legend. Foxx? Walter Johnson? George Brett? Nope.

but like all the kids that I know at his age, they simply do not collect. Most never did in the first place.

While I mostly agree with your assessment and it makes me sad more than anything. I do have a rebuttal to one of your arguments.
No one on this board knew the average player from the early 1900s when they were growing up and later learned about them and now collect early tobacco cards. I may be wrong about that.

But I will agree with you that most kids these days (at least from what I’ve seen and I have two myself) don’t collect much of anything. So in that regard the hobby may not have a great future.