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  #51  
Old 06-14-2017, 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
In 2013 Ellsbury hit 9 HR with 53 RBI and a .298 BA. He had a nice year, but he was not their premier player. Ortiz and Pedroia were.
He was the big free agent though. Pedroia and Ortiz weren't free agents. Boston had just won the World Series. The entire league wanted Ellsbury, which is why the Yankees paid what they did. You might be revising history too.
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  #52  
Old 06-14-2017, 09:51 AM
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What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry

I don't think any of those guys are particularly durable, so plenty of room for a 4th outfielder and platoon/pinch hit situations I think.

The more flexibility the better. Not that you want your $20 million dollar guy to be your 4th outfielder, but we've paid more then that for A-Rod to essentially ride the bench or miss entire seasons.
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  #53  
Old 06-14-2017, 04:43 PM
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I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊
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  #54  
Old 06-14-2017, 04:55 PM
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Being so immersed in PreWar and vintage, I had long forgotten the thrill and sheer fun of chasing the key cards of a current star. Judge is a real positive jolt for Yankee fans of all ages right now, and fans of baseball as well.

Pivoting to the value discussion, bought a bunch of his Blue Heritage Autos at the $750 price point, and finally added the Red Ink variation yesterday.

After the 2013 Chrome and the 2017 Heritage autos, I'm a big fan of the Topps Series 1 1987 style auto card, seems scarce relative to the current crop.

The Topps Archives cards are also very cool. I really dig how they smartly embrace the old 1983 design; creates inherent appeal for us ancient 40-yr olds who collected as kids back then.
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  #55  
Old 06-14-2017, 05:00 PM
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It's fun, but it's also pure speculation. There was a similar mania for Strasburg rookies that I recall.
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  #56  
Old 06-14-2017, 05:04 PM
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I missed the boat on Judge but I'm hoping Chance Adams and Blake Rutherford live up to their hype too. Both are relatively cheap pick ups at the moment. Adams has really flown under the radar.
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  #57  
Old 06-14-2017, 06:09 PM
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I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

That's way, way smarter then the time I bought up about 15 Michael Jordan Rookies for about $5 each, and then sold them a week later for about $20 each, back in the later 80's.

Still kicking myself for that and the case of 1984 Topps Football I sold for 20 bucks a box.
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  #58  
Old 06-14-2017, 06:44 PM
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I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊
Congrats! Reminds me of when I was buying nice McGwire rookies in 1992 (about a dozen, as I recall, each purchased separately and selected for sharp corners and centering) for $10-$15, and selling them at the '98 National for $60-$80. It was amazing how many dealers had signs posted that they were buying McGwire.

Happy collecting,

Larry
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  #59  
Old 06-14-2017, 07:26 PM
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Each year there are 25 or more highly rated prospects. You read about them and it sounds like they are all practically in the HOF. My guess is more people are losing at the speculation game than winning.
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  #60  
Old 06-14-2017, 08:10 PM
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Oh thats nothing...I remember the time I bought up like 27 bernie williams rookies...and maybe 10 gerald williams rookies...and a few dozen pedro martinez rookies...and...oh wait!
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  #61  
Old 06-15-2017, 10:13 AM
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Default agree with peter

the new stuff is like going to a casino .the minute it arrives sell .well the following week a new product is out and that ends that .I got lucky with LeBron chromes topps 2003 and I was told to buy judge ,,who knew ,,.now watch him get hurt.i have 35 psa 10 lebrons not for sale ..got them cheap and then graded them ..but I wont tell you about jj hardy rookies lol
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  #62  
Old 06-15-2017, 10:37 AM
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Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.
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  #63  
Old 06-15-2017, 10:37 AM
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Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.
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  #64  
Old 06-15-2017, 10:52 AM
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Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.
I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many!
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron...ih=591&dpr=1.5
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  #65  
Old 06-15-2017, 10:57 AM
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Default 2003 chrome lebron s

Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please
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  #66  
Old 06-15-2017, 12:23 PM
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Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please
You certainly have a pile, and no doubt you will make a pile of money some day, but if I were to guess, there were far fewer of those Lebron's around than there were Judge's?
http://www.beckett.com/news/aaron-ju...vin@rogers.com
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  #67  
Old 06-15-2017, 01:00 PM
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Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio
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  #68  
Old 06-15-2017, 01:14 PM
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Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio
All is well, Octavio, thanks for asking.

Hope all is well with you as well.

E-mail/address sent.
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  #69  
Old 06-15-2017, 03:04 PM
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If I was sitting on a bunch of LeBrons I would sell some, I don't see there being a whole lot of upside left.
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  #70  
Old 06-15-2017, 03:13 PM
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[QUOTE=irv;1671252]I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many!
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron...ih=591&dpr=1.5[/QUOTE


They are ALL his rookie plus the 125 that haven't been released yet in 2017. Not to mention the eight different color refractors and prisms and five different color ink autographs.
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  #71  
Old 06-15-2017, 03:29 PM
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If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?

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  #72  
Old 06-15-2017, 03:40 PM
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If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?
I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.
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  #73  
Old 06-15-2017, 04:08 PM
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But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.
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  #74  
Old 06-15-2017, 04:39 PM
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Hi Peter I'm going to take your advice I got offered insane amount for all but declined hope he goes to the lakers lol
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  #75  
Old 06-15-2017, 05:48 PM
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But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.
If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.
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  #76  
Old 06-16-2017, 12:38 AM
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Packs,

That is a really astute and interesting observation regarding PreWar back premiums and the analogy to some of today's variations.

What some miss is that not all modern collecting is for value and resale, to be dumped/sold when there is a profit to be taken, or to be hidden in shame if value dips. Just as with PreWar and vintage, collectors can collect because we are really into the player. That is, after all, what collecting is supposed to be about.

For example, when I was a kid, I bought and loved Mattingly, Strawberry, Gooden, etc. I bought and collected and loved having those cards not because they went up or down in value in a Beckett or CCP guide, but because they were "my guys," who I rooted for with heart. When I would wake up in the morning, I would check the box scores to see how my favorite guys did. I own those same cards today, and thoroughly enjoy having them in my collection— despite the fact that they are not worth thousands and the players did not make the Hall of Fame.

Funny thing is, as a much older 'kid' now, I do the same exact thing. I've bought both the expensive and non-expensive cards of my current favorites like Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Montgomery, Severino, etc., with the endeavor being to 'Collect'em all' as the hobby saying goes. Does that play into the companies printing variations? Sure. No different than collecting in the 80s played into me wanting an 86 Sportflic of Mattingly or the 84FU Gooden. And the fun and enjoyment is there from collecting a player you like, whether he becomes a HOFer or not, and whether the cards become worth money, or worth nothing.

In my modern splurging lately, I've learned that today we can have many officially designated RC's with the RC logo, and then there is usually a player's earlier Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto card.

Much as there is debate among PreWar collectors over what card is so-and-so's rookie card, the same dialogue exists in the modern realm. Some guys view the Bowman Chrome as a rookie, others view it as a Minor League RC or something akin to an XRC. Some like only cards with the official RC logo for their rookies. And then there are guys who want to collect all the cards of their player.

Similarly, back in '84, there were guys who were satisfied with Darryl Strawberry's 84T. Others felt their collections needed to add the expensive 83T. Still others felt a need to add the Donruss and Fleer 84 issues. I remember encountering the 1985T #1 Draft Pick card of Strawberry, or the 1986T Gooden Record Breaker or the 1986 Fleer 'in action' cards, and I wanted to add them. The same way I see the 1960 style Archives Judge Auto and the 1983 style auto and want to add them to my others. Player collecting, especially of stars, has a long history of leading collectors down a dizzying path— just look at all the cards in a Mickey Mantle Master Set, LOL.

Ultimately, as always, it comes down to, "Collect what and who we like." If someone wants to pay a handsome premium for a Gold Refractor of Gleyber Torres or a Superfactor of Judge or a Lenox Back of a T206 non HOFer or a Pancho Herrer or a centered card that is usually found OC, they should go for it. If a collector buys what he wants and he's happy adding to his collection, it's never stupid or insane; it's always a good choice— because life is way too short and we can't take the cash with us.

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  #77  
Old 06-16-2017, 07:12 AM
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What I find confusing about the modern RC designations is that nobody seems to question, for example, that the 1992 Bowman of Mariano Rivera is his RC, even though it depicts him in street clothes and was issued 3 years before he put on a major league uniform. Or the 85 McGwire on Team USA. But many of the same people would say that the Team USA issues of Kershaw, Harper, and others are not RCs, and the apparent rationale is that they were issued before they appeared in the majors. I am sure there is an answer but I don't get it.

And Matt, yeah of course ultimately collect what you like, but debates about value are also an "inheritant" part of the hobby.
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  #78  
Old 06-16-2017, 07:17 AM
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If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.
This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.
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Old 06-16-2017, 08:34 AM
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This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.
If all that has been said in the thread didn't help you to understand, then I am at a loss on how to explain it further to you.

No disrespect. I'm just not good at explaining things I guess so I will leave that to other's who are.
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Old 06-16-2017, 08:39 AM
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There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.

Last edited by packs; 06-16-2017 at 08:44 AM.
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  #81  
Old 06-16-2017, 08:47 AM
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Packs, you are dropping some solid points here-- never saw it that way prior to your posts. An example that there is quality, insightful user content on the internet after all!
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:00 AM
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To me there is a big difference between being scarce as a result of the way history unfolded and being scarce by design to create demand. Just my two cents, even if it doesn't qualify for Matt's praise.
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:06 AM
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How do you feel about high numbers then? Or SP's? Wouldn't a 52 high number or a 48 Leaf SP be an example of a manufactured scarcity? What about the 33 Goudey Lajoie?

Last edited by packs; 06-16-2017 at 09:07 AM.
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  #84  
Old 06-16-2017, 09:16 AM
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How do you feel about high numbers then? Or SP's? Wouldn't a 52 high number or a 48 Leaf SP be an example of a manufactured scarcity? What about the 33 Goudey Lajoie?
The Lajoie I think is the closest. 52T I don't think was short printed in order to create demand, I think they just dumped product because they couldn't sell it. High numbers in general I think it's the same, late in the season the demand just wasn't there. I am not that familiar with the story behind the Leaf SPs. If they were short printed to sell more product with set builders chasing them, then yeah that's similar.
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:26 AM
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Today it is a business and back then it was as well. If you think they wouldn't have used refractor technology if they had it then I would point you to the t204. When new technology came about they used it.

If you don't believe there was "manufactured" scarcity I would just point you to the 1933/34 Goudey Lajoie as a prime example that there was. (I see this was pointed out before I got back to finishing this comment)

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Old 06-16-2017, 09:52 AM
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There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.
Well, although it seems moot to you, the fact remains that people are drawn to rarity/scarcity of HOF's who's card/pictures are hard to come by.
Judge has a ton of RC's. If he only had one or 2, then you would see those prices going through the roof, but, unlike Cobb, for example, people have a ton of other choices, especially if they cannot afford to obtain a true RC.

Also, Cobb is famous for various reasons, while Judge, for example is new and is just starting out. People have him in the hall already, lol, and many are speculating and the prices reflect that, but have him get injured and have a non HOF shortened career and he will be forgotten about as will his cards and what people once paid for them.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:07 AM
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My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:08 AM
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Irv— perhaps I'm misreading your point, but who here is comparing Aaron Judge to Ty Cobb? The sheer premise is ludicrous.

Also, your logic— that someone who has a "non HOF" career will be "forgotten"— is pretty harsh and deeply flawed. There are plenty of players who did not make the hall and are beloved by their fans, plenty of numbers retired by teams that aren't in the HOF. It is not HOF or bust for the players, and it's not that way for their fans, either. Maybe for card value speculators, yet that's its own realm.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:14 AM
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My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.
I bet there are 500-1000 Mike Trout cards on this planet for every vintage Cobb, already. And that may be low. No way of knowing that, just a guess.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:17 AM
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My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.
Agreed. Look at how many cards Mantle had. Ruth wasn't too shabby either in that department; I remember first learning of all his Goudeys, then the M101. Then the Oxford. The Frederick Foto. The Boston Store. Collins McCarthy. The different Caramels. Baltimore News. Strip cards. Headin' Home cards...

I got dizzy, yet then waded in, learned about the issues, decided what I liked and why, over time appreciating ones I slept on, and it's all good. So I don't look at a player having a plethora of issues as a pejorative thing. No one is forcing us to buy them all. As you said, the company can print what they want, yet the collectors ultimately set the demand.

Would I as one random collector prefer the streamlined era when there was one 1975 Brett from Topps and that was it? Personally, yeah, I am a minimalist by nature and abhor clutter. That said, I also like to collect/complete checklists, so that aspect of the modern landscape appeals to me and is fun.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:26 AM
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758 Trout cards in PSA Master Set, 242 Mantle, and Trout of course is early in his career.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:32 AM
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Irv— perhaps I'm misreading your point, but who here is comparing Aaron Judge to Ty Cobb? The sheer premise is ludicrous.

Also, your logic— that someone who has a "non HOF" career will be "forgotten"— is pretty harsh and deeply flawed. There are plenty of players who did not make the hall and are beloved by their fans, plenty of numbers retired by teams that aren't in the HOF. It is not HOF or bust for the players, and it's not that way for their fans, either. Maybe for card value speculators, yet that's its own realm.
Well, because the original poster was wondering if Judge was a good investment, I figure it was a good choice to use his name as a comparison.

My other words were tongue in cheek so to speak as this is also a possibility whether it is Judge or another player. I know other players, such as Minoso, who is not in the HOF, is also popular, but his card prices pale in value compared to if he was.

Like Peter just said, Trout likely has 500-1000 cards for everyone available of Cobb.
That is how the market is, like it or not. 1 of 1's, refractors, etc, will never, imo, reach the levels price wise of Cobb, or anyone else for that matter, who is a HOF, whos cards/picture/memorabilia are rare and hard to come by.
Here is one article of many: http://www.cardboardconnection.com/w...-90s-worthless

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Old 06-16-2017, 10:58 AM
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Irv, gotcha; I think we are therefore talking apples and oranges here, or more like apples and cars.

It seems you were talking about monetary value/investment, while I was talking about the sheer number of cards not being something inherently pejorative. In my opinion, so what if Trout has 758 cards? How is that something negative? Variety is the spice of life, LOL. Some guys settle down with one woman, some prefer many, no one's right or wrong. Just different styles. Back in the day there were fewer choices in the make of your car, or your phone carrier, where you got your news, what channel to watch on TV, etc. In this day and age, choice has exploded. That's neither good nor bad.
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:57 PM
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Yeah I'm just not understanding why having so many cards is such an issue.
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:22 PM
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Yeah I'm just not understanding why having so many cards is such an issue.
It is not an issue, but if I understood you correctly, you were wondering why some of the newer cards weren't as valuable as others like Cobb?

I had about 4 hrs sleep last night, so it won't be surprising to hear I might have everything backwards, but that is what I thought you were saying?
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Old 06-17-2017, 07:12 AM
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I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.
I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

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Old 06-17-2017, 07:46 AM
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I don't understand the autograph thing either. As you point out, the signature itself has almost no intrinsic value, so it's just another way to artificially distinguish one group of a player's million plus rookie cards from another group. And what drives it home for me is that they now have different color signatures, some of which apparently are worth more. The RED autographs, on some issues anyhow, are far more valuable than the BLUE autographs. Uh, ok, sure, whatever. I am sure some marketing guru will come up with even further differentiation of autographs. How about an ultra super rare version where the player actually writes out his full name instead of a chicken scratch of his initials? Or maybe they could add the date and call it the ultra super rare "with date" version? It all seems artificial to me.

And yeah, baseball prospects are notoriously unpredictable. And a few good months, or even a few good years, doesn't mean anything either in this most difficult of sports.
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Old 06-17-2017, 08:34 AM
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I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.
Very well said!
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Old 06-17-2017, 08:35 AM
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I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

Hey Orly, why don't you let modern collectors or people like myself who will buy a modern player's cards decide how to spend our hard-earned money.

I could buy pieces like your Cobb postcard, but it doesn't interest me or appeal to me in the least. Do I enter your sandbox and verbally piss on your choices? No.

On the money topic, not everyone is in this for future investment, some people want to collect modern players they root for. And for those who are after a monetary return, people have done fine on the great current players, too.

You say modern Trout collectors will "learn the hard way." Ooh. What harsh lesson will this be? You think the kid or guy who paid a few hundred for a Trout will, in decades from now, walk around rueing the choice because the card dropped in value?

In 2027, will you walk the National with schadenfreude, hoping to hear the words: "Oh my God, my Trout was once worth $800. Now it's worth $200! My life is over! What a hard life lesson! If only I listened to that guy and bought a Cobb instead of the player I rooted for in my present life!"

Or what about the guy who can afford to drop a few grand or even ten grand on a Trout or Judge or Seager or Bellinger now? Will he learn the hard way if it drops to half its value in fifteen years? I don't think so.

- If he dropped 10k on a card and it loses nearly all its value, it's a loss the guy can shrug at. That's not a life-changing sum for someone with that cash to spend on a card.
- If he dropped 10k because he loves the player, he still loves the card, it's likely his favorite card or among them.

And if you think Judge is Kevin Maas, you've betrayed yourself as someone who doesn't know the game of baseball. Their approaches at the plate are different. Their ability to make adjustments is different. Their ability to hit for average and contact is different. As a cautionary anecdote about purchasing the cards of hot rookies that may not develop into bona fide stars, then yes, there's a comparison to be drawn— for now.

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Old 06-17-2017, 08:42 AM
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a few good months, or even a few good years, doesn't mean anything either in this most difficult of sports.
Yes, it is enormously difficult.

But you really think a few good "years" doesn't mean anything?

To whom— certainly not the players. Real baseball players take it game to game, at bat to at bat, pitch to pitch. They don't live their lives thinking, "Gee, I have to make the HOF." So the players certainly wouldn't agree with that.

The fans? I think fans of a team or player don't live in a "HOF or bust" space either. Fans will love lots of non HOF worthy players.

So how does a few good months or years mean nothing? The game is enormously hard. If anything, in such an environment having a great season is something a player or fan would love and value.

The only realm where that statement could apply is the realm of selling a baseball card for money.
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