Adrian Beltre

[darwinbulldog]

How likely is he to get 3000 hits and 500 HRs? At this point, I guess I'm just asking how likely do you think he is to get 500 HRs, as it's difficult to hit 75 home runs without getting at least 73 other base hits in the process.

Full disclosure: I have a Beltre card I'm planning to sell, so I hope he gets there, but really I am interested in his place in the history of the game. Is he a first ballot Hall of Famer? Or does he face more of a Blyleven-ish trudge up to eventual 75% support?

I have my own formula for ranking players and have him at #72 all-time (right between George Brett and Tom Glavine) if he retires today.

[Exhibitman]

I don't think 500 HR is reasonable at his current power levels; it would take him well into his 40s. 3000 hits seems like next season or so. He may end up a Don Sutton in terms of HOF voting.

[D. Bergin]

Agree. He'll get to 3000 hits next season if he doesn't get hurt. He needs at least 3 full seasons to get to 500 HR's.

He's 37 now, and taking into account where he came from, he could just as easily be at least a couple years older then is reported.

It's not precipitous but his power stats have been slowly declining the last 4 years or so.

I think he's a HOF'er, but I'm sure there's tons of people on here who don't think he is.

[the 'stache]

A real good late career shouldn't make up for a largely underwhelming first two-thirds of a career.

100 is Major League average OPS +. Between 1998 and 2009, the first twelve years of his career, he had a 105 OPS +, and he ended below Major League average in six of those twelve seasons. In those twelve seasons, he had one, 2004, in which he received even a single MVP vote. He was never an All Star in those twelve years, and the first seven years, he played in Los Angeles, one of the biggest markets in America. Dodger fans didn't think enough of him to vote him to the Midsummer Classic--not once. Five good, not great, seasons don't make up for eleven disappointing ones.

He's played 2,646 games. He's remained healthy--that's why he'll make it to 3,000 hits. While playing that long is an accomplishment, is that worth Hall of Fame induction?

His career 162 game averages: .285 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI. .337 OBP/.476/.813.

Ask yourself this: has Beltre ever been one of the ten best players in the Majors? If you were to go back over the history of the game as it coincided with Beltre's career, would you put him on your top ten list? I wouldn't.

He has a career 115 OPS +. He has four Gold Gloves. In nineteen years, he's led the league in home runs, doubles, and hits one time each. That's it. He's had one season above a 150 OPS +, and only two others over 140.

Nothing about Beltre truly impresses me.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Ask yourself this: has Beltre ever been one of the ten best players in the Majors?

His WAR puts him in the top 10 in 2004, 2010, 2012, and 2014.

For position players his WAR was in the top 10 eight years.

His WAR7 (his best 7 seasons) ranks him 6th all time for 3rd basemen.

So yes it is easy to say that he was in the top 10 at points in his career.

[chaddurbin]

easy hof'er...consistent hitting with elite defense. 3k hits will about seal it, altho he's a hof'er today if you watch any baseball at all. use stats to back up what you're observing. don't just run to b-r as a starting point for everything.

[clydepepper]

Beltre's ranking among third basemen is the key, I believe.

He has been an excellent defender at an important defensive position for years.

Was he, at any time, one of the top players?...no. Was he one of the very best third basemen during his time?...yes.

I still remember Hank Aaron saying that one Mike McQueen would someday be a great pitcher.

While that kind of analysis gives me great pause to take seriously any players' analysis of another player if I have not heard it from multiply sources, Cal Ripken, Jr. stated a few years ago that Beltre was the best defensive third baseman ever.

While I don't believe he is even the very best playing today, he has ranked with the elite at his position for the larger part of his career.

Whether or not he reaches 500 HRs won't keep him out, 3000 hits will get him in...but, he may be the next Biggio, meaning he may not get in on the first ballot.

A good player to compare him to would be Chipper Jones, who everyone seems to assume will be a first ballot inductee, though he reached neither 500 HRs nor 3000 hits.

Beltre leads in WAR 86.8 to 85.0 ; Chipper leads in Offensive WAR (which voters prefer to concentrate on) 87.4 to 63.9; Beltre is 13th ALL-TIME at any position in Defensive WAR with 27.1 while I cannot seem to locate Chipper's DWAR as it appears to be lower than the very long list of leaders on BBR.

[packs]

Am I the only one who doubts his stats are real? The guy hit 48 homers in a walk year in 2004 and hasn't come close since. Then he tanks in Seattle and has a monster year for Boston during another walk year where he hits 321, almost 50 points higher than his highest average during his Seattle contract.

The 2004 Dodgers featured known cheaters Shawn Green, Eric Gagne, and Paul Lo Duca.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Beltre's ranking among third basemen is the key, I believe.

He has been an excellent defender at an important defensive position for years.

Was he, at any time, one of the top players?...no. Was he one of the very best third basemen during his time?...yes.

I still remember Hank Aaron saying that one Mike McQueen would someday be a great pitcher.

While that kind of analysis gives me great pause to take seriously any players' analysis of another player if I have not heard it from multiply sources, Cal Ripken, Jr. stated a few years ago that Beltre was the best defensive third baseman ever.

While I don't believe he is even the very best playing today, he has ranked with the elite at his position for the larger part of his career.

Whether or not he reaches 500 HRs won't keep him out, 3000 hits will get him in...but, he may be the next Biggio, meaning he may not get in on the first ballot.

A good player to compare him to would be Chipper Jones, who everyone seems to assume will be a first ballot inductee, though he reached neither 500 HRs nor 3000 hits.

Beltre leads in WAR 86.8 to 85.0 ; Chipper leads in Offensive WAR (which voters prefer to concentrate on) 87.4 to 63.9; Beltre is 13th ALL-TIME at any position in Defensive WAR with 27.1 while I cannot seem to locate Chipper's DWAR as it appears to be lower than the very long list of leaders on BBR.

If you are looking at leader lists you will never find Chipper Jones' dWAR. It is a -1.6.

[the 'stache]

I guess I see a top ten player differently than most. One great season, followed by several mediocre season, at best, doesn't make for a great player, certainly not one of the ten best players in the game. Consistency over time makes a player great. Anybody can have a career year, and as referenced already, that 2004 season seems suspect, to say the least. He has a 1.017 OPS in '04, and then averages a .759 OPS over the next five seasons, going over .800 only once--barely--in 2007, with an .802.

Then, he goes to Boston, a team notorious for PED use, and boom, he's a .321 hitter with nearly 50 doubles, and 30 home runs, after being a .270 hitter nearly 7,000 plate appearances into his career.

Sorry, I just can't vote him in. One great season, and eleven average, or below average, seasons in his first twelve doesn't scream all-time great to me.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

His WAR puts him in the top 10 in 2004, 2010, 2012, and 2014.

For position players his WAR was in the top 10 eight years.

His WAR7 (his best 7 seasons) ranks him 6th all time for 3rd basemen.

So yes it is easy to say that he was in the top 10 at points in his career.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I guess I see a top ten player differently than most. One great season, followed by several mediocre season, at best, doesn't make for a great player, certainly not one of the ten best players in the game. Consistency over time makes a player great. Anybody can have a career year, and as referenced already, that 2004 season seems suspect, to say the least. He has a 1.017 OPS in '04, and then averages a .759 OPS over the next five seasons, going over .800 only once--barely--in 2007, with an .802.

Then, he goes to Boston, a team notorious for PED use, and boom, he's a .321 hitter with nearly 50 doubles, and 30 home runs, after being a .270 hitter nearly 7,000 plate appearances into his career.

Sorry, I just can't vote him in. One great season, and eleven average, or below average, seasons in his first twelve doesn't scream all-time great to me.

Andre Dawson is the most similar batter according to BBR. HE also had a career year that was clearly better than his norm.

He hit 49 HRs for the Cubs under a famously 'blank' contract...just to get off the turf in Montreal. His next three highest HR totals were 31,31 & 27. Beltre's top four were 48, 36, 32 & 30.

Both had four 100 RBI seasons; both lead the league in Hits and doubles once.

Beltre's Career OPS is .813 to Dawson's .802

The next two most similar batters were Dave Parker (HOF except for baggage either real or assumed) and Billy Williams, another Cubs HOFer.

Dawson did have twice as many gold gloves and a lot more stolen bases, but he is a much closer hitter comparison than Chipper Jones- who is not listed in the top 10 most similar to Beltre (so I'm kind of correcting my previous post ).

I'd have to say that since Dawson is in, Beltre should be.

[nat]

Beltre has had only one season in his career that he was below average, 2001. 2 WAR is an average player, Beltre was never below 3.2 in his time in Seattle. He's been worth 3 already this season. His raw offensive numbers were suppressed by his park during his time in Seattle. Once you adjust for his park he was a below-average hitter two seasons and above average in three. But what really makes Beltre special isn't his hitting (which is good but not great), it's the fact that he's one of baseball's all-time great defenders. He is 13th all-time in dWAR (the defensive part of WAR). The only third baseman who ranks ahead of him is Brooks. All the others are shortstops. A good hitter, with a long career, who has a fair argument for being the second greatest defensive player ever at his position, is a pretty good HOF case.

Let's leave the steroid speculation for people for whom there is actual evidence. He's never failed a test, never turned up on documents from shady doctors. Not everyone follows a nice smooth aging curve. And the "maybe he's juicing before a contract" theory doesn't hold water, since his worst offensive season was his last in Seattle (hence a year in which he needed a new contract), and he's been playing at a consistently high level his entire time with the Rangers.

[packs]

That year in Seattle was due to an injury. He only appeared in 111 games. You could argue it's a fluke but it seems pretty suspicious to me that his best seasons all came during walk years. In 2012 he signed a 5 year extension with Texas after hitting 32 homers in 2011, the first time he hit 30 homers since he hit 48 during his walk year in Los Angeles.

He also hit 321 with Boston in 2010 on a a one year deal. The first time he hit 300 since his walk year in Los Angeles. Also the first time he drove in 100 runs.

The pattern is suspicious.

[UnVme7]

I've watched Beltre for a long time, have a huge collection of him, and straight up love the guy for his on and off the field contributions.

Guy is tougher than nails. Broke a finger that needed surgery and opted not to have surgery and played the season with a bad hand. Ever read where he got real sick early in his career and had to wear a colostomy bag when he played?? Yeah, guy plays hurt all the time and gets mad when the manager wants to give him a day off.

He got better with age--- his best years came from 2010 to present. How do you explain that? Steriods? Just stop...

One thing I hate is when someone looks at numbers for someone and doesn't fully understand them. Guy could retire now and get voted in.

[packs]

Well what is your reasoning behind not being suspicious? When Brady Anderson hit 50 homers wasn't that suspicious? Why was it suspicious? I would say it's because nothing he did before that suggested he was that talented. I would say the same about Beltre and his walk years.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Beltre's ranking among third basemen is the key, I believe.

He has been an excellent defender at an important defensive position for years.

Was he, at any time, one of the top players?...no. Was he one of the very best third basemen during his time?...yes.

I still remember Hank Aaron saying that one Mike McQueen would someday be a great pitcher.

While that kind of analysis gives me great pause to take seriously any players' analysis of another player if I have not heard it from multiply sources, Cal Ripken, Jr. stated a few years ago that Beltre was the best defensive third baseman ever.

While I don't believe he is even the very best playing today, he has ranked with the elite at his position for the larger part of his career.

Whether or not he reaches 500 HRs won't keep him out, 3000 hits will get him in...but, he may be the next Biggio, meaning he may not get in on the first ballot.

A good player to compare him to would be Chipper Jones, who everyone seems to assume will be a first ballot inductee, though he reached neither 500 HRs nor 3000 hits.

Beltre leads in WAR 86.8 to 85.0 ; Chipper leads in Offensive WAR (which voters prefer to concentrate on) 87.4 to 63.9; Beltre is 13th ALL-TIME at any position in Defensive WAR with 27.1 while I cannot seem to locate Chipper's DWAR as it appears to be lower than the very long list of leaders on BBR.

Ripken also got killed in Baltimore for stating that....because it's just not true. Brooks Robinson far and away is the greatest defensive third baseman of all-time and is also much more beloved in Baltimore than Ripken will ever be.

[UnVme7]

Originally Posted by packs

Well what is your reasoning behind not being suspicious? When Brady Anderson hit 50 homers wasn't that suspicious? Why was it suspicious? I would say it's because nothing he did before that suggested he was that talented. I would say the same about Beltre and his walk years.

His 2011, 2012 and 2013 years were some of his most productive years of his career, and I have zero suspicion that he was on anything in those years, where drug testing was and has been pretty high in the order compared to 2004.

I suspect guys like Frank Thomas, Piazza, Thome, etc, but I'm not going to say I wouldn't ever vote for them when I don't know for a fact that they actually did

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Agree. He'll get to 3000 hits next season if he doesn't get hurt. He needs at least 3 full seasons to get to 500 HR's.

He's 37 now, and taking into account where he came from, he could just as easily be at least a couple years older then is reported.

It's not precipitous but his power stats have been slowly declining the last 4 years or so.

I think he's a HOF'er, but I'm sure there's tons of people on here who don't think he is.

How soon they forget. The dodgers actually got fined for lying about his age in the other direction! They illegally signed him at 15 and claimed he was 16. This was discovered his rookie year when the 20 year old phenom became a 19 year old phenom!

[chaddurbin]

in the social media era, guys like beltre david ortiz bartolo colon become imminently more popular due to their personalities and exposure...thus adding to their candidacies (not colon). no one remembers colon was busted for ped, just that he's hitting a home run like homer simpson in a gif, beltre with his weird antics with his teammates, david ortiz for swearing in his speeches and not the mitchell report.

but i remember, and the north remembers...#edgarmartinezin2020 #truekingofdh

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

How soon they forget. The dodgers actually got fined for lying about his age in the other direction! They illegally signed him at 15 and claimed he was 16. This was discovered his rookie year when the 20 year old phenom became a 19 year old phenom!

Nope, I did not know that. Interesting.