First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.

What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.

[parker1b2]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.

Agree completely with this^^^^

Also Fred McGriff gets no love. I feel like he is a HOFer, 94 strike probably cost him the 500 HR club, and unfortunately for him he played in the Steroid Era and was never associated with PEDs

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.

He played like he was in the dead ball era. He had some amazing abilities, but the way he used them weren't necessarily the best for winning baseball. He was literally dropping balls in front of outfielders almost every time he made contact. It led to tons of hits and very few extra bases, advanced runners or RBI's.

In his lead off at bat or when he was at bat with nobody on base he was a superior player, although even then if he was on 2nd (or even third with his speed he should have had a lot more triples) he would have scored even more often.

Any time there was a man on base he hurt his team. Balls dropping in front of outfielders mean a guy on first usually only gets to second and a guy on second can't score. Not all singles are created equal, outfielders were almost always coming in on his hits setting them up to throw.

People compare him to Boggs and Gwynn which is crazy. They both had a TON more extra base hits than Ichiro and neither of them will ever be mistaken for a power hitter. Plus I hate when a guy hangs on at the end of his career for milestone numbers. Ichiro has been pretty useless since 2010 if I recall correctly.

If you like WAR he had 2 superstar seasons and 5 additional all-star seasons (again trusting memory here) that pales in comparison to Boggs or Gwynn.

He is, to me, Hall of Very Good. Maybe if he hadn't lost 3 or 4 years of his prime to Japan the case would be different, especially if they were superstar caliber seasons like his best two.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If there is a stat for the batter with the highest percentage of his hits being singles, I bet Ichiro is at the top.

Ps It's 81 percent, Rose was 75 or so.

[packs]

I believe Pete Rose has the most singles out of anybody. Was he a better or worse hitter than Ichiro? For posterity, they both had 10 seasons of 200 or more hits. The only difference is Ichiro's ten seasons were consecutive.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Rose's OPS was 27 points higher. 746 doubles to Ichiro's 362.

Shall we play baseball reference?

Rose

Hall of Fame Statistics





Black Ink
Batting - 64 (14), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 239 (26), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 311 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 55 (65), Average HOFer ≈ 50


Ichiro


Hall of Fame Statistics





Black Ink
Batting - 43 (34), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 142 (114), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 234 (30), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 44 (128), Average HOFer ≈ 50

[packs]

I only mentioned Rose vis a vis the singles. I don't think they were the same player stats-wise but I think they possessed the same ability to hit the ball where someone wasn't.

[Peter_Spaeth]

OK here's a question, who is the only pitcher to face both Rose and Ichiro?

[nat]

Gotta be Jamie Moyer, right?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If there is a stat for the batter with the highest percentage of his hits being singles, I bet Ichiro is at the top.

Ps It's 81 percent, Rose was 75 or so.

I think the all-time record for singles ratio is still the Phillies Roy Thomas. Thomas has lots of cool obscure records because all he ever did was hit singles and walk at an absurd ratio. He had 1,537 hits, 1,377 of which were singles, or 89.5%.

He also played in 110 games or more in only 9 seasons, but led the league in walks 7 times. He played in only 121 games in 1907, but still led the league. Not a Hall of Fame candidate, but a fun player.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

He played like he was in the dead ball era. He had some amazing abilities, but the way he used them weren't necessarily the best for winning baseball. He was literally dropping balls in front of outfielders almost every time he made contact. It led to tons of hits and very few extra bases, advanced runners or RBI's.

OK so we can add "didn't get many extra base hits or RBI" to the list of his drawbacks. That still doesn't get us anywhere near to outweighing the positives on his resume though. He was a leadoff guy, he stole more than 500 bases and scored more than 100 runs for eight seasons in a row, so obviously he was contributing something of exceptional value even if it didn't translate into a bunch of RBI

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Any time there was a man on base he hurt his team. Balls dropping in front of outfielders mean a guy on first usually only gets to second and a guy on second can't score. Not all singles are created equal, outfielders were almost always coming in on his hits setting them up to throw.

Just to be clear: getting a bloop single with a runner on base doesn't hurt your team. Its not as good as getting a double obviously, but is preferable to recording an out. A guy getting a bloop single 1/3 of the time in that situation is arguably preferable to a guy hitting a line drive to right 1/4 of the time.

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

People compare him to Boggs and Gwynn which is crazy. They both had a TON more extra base hits than Ichiro and neither of them will ever be mistaken for a power hitter. Plus I hate when a guy hangs on at the end of his career for milestone numbers. Ichiro has been pretty useless since 2010 if I recall correctly.

Agree about the Boggs and Gwynn comparison being inaccurate.

I'm neutral about the hanging on at the end of the career for milestones since a ton of HOFers have done that. Its basically irrelevant to HOF consideration IMHO - even Ruth hung on longer than he should have.

Also, Ichiro's last years weren't entirely unproductive: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-old-and-good/

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

If you like WAR he had 2 superstar seasons and 5 additional all-star seasons (again trusting memory here) that pales in comparison to Boggs or Gwynn.

His career WAR isn't spectacular by HOF standards, nor is it an outlier though as there are a lot of guys with much lower WAR already in, including some big names. His WAR just makes him an average HOFer but I don't think you can use it effectively to put him in the Hall of Very Good, given all the other stuff he has going for him. The numerous records, including important ones, the trailblazer role that he played as the first Japanese position player, and all the other stuff that is too well known to be worth repeating here.

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

He is, to me, Hall of Very Good. Maybe if he hadn't lost 3 or 4 years of his prime to Japan the case would be different, especially if they were superstar caliber seasons like his best two.

I think the fact that he played his prime years in Japan just adds to his resume (or at the very least it does not detract from it), he actually played 7 seasons in Japan and won the batting title in each of them. I know they don't give much weight to NPB stats in making HOF decisions, but its an extremely impressive footnote to his career - he managed to squeeze periods of brilliant dominance into not just one but two major leagues.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I wouldn't rate him a first tier HOFer, but I think it's beyond any serious question that Ichiro should be in.

[Chuck9788]

Will Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez be enshrined in the HOF within the next 10 years?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Chuck9788

Will Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez be enshrined in the HOF within the next 10 years?

Yes without a doubt

[packs]

Without a doubt? It's been 6 years for Bonds. He's still very far away.

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Yes without a doubt

I disagree completely. How is Ben Johnson viewed today, 30 years after he lost his Olympic gold medal? How are the East German athletes from 40 years ago viewed today?