1969 Topps Alcindor PSA 10

[CMIZ5290]

This card is already over $400K! I just don't get it.....

[Sean1125]

Perception is reality.

[GasHouseGang]

Wrong forum. They're dying for posts over in the basketball area.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

Wrong forum. They're dying for posts over in the basketball area.

I thought about moving this over there but didn't think it would be fair.

That being said, I say we try to be a bit more on topic for a few days (myself included, I know I can stray too) on the main forum. Thanks everyone (and me).
And yes, it seems almost all early sportscards from the 1950s-1970s, in top grade, are doing very well.

[pokerplyr80]

Pop 1 of a RC of one of the all time greats. I'm surprised some of these cards, like the Ryan and Rose up at Heritage, don't go for even more. This card might never hit the market again in a 10, or if it does it could be years or decades down the road. For those that have a net worth of 100s of millions, a few hundred grand to own the best example of a card in existence is just a drop in the bucket.

[jb67]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Pop 1 of a RC of one of the all time greats. I'm surprised some of these cards, like the Ryan and Rose up at Heritage, don't go for even more. This card might never hit the market again in a 10, or if it does it could be years or decades down the road. For those that have a net worth of 100s of millions, a few hundred grand to own the best example of a card in existence is just a drop in the bucket.

+1.

[ruth-gehrig]

Serious question....What are the odds that a card grader could be "bought off" to give a legitimate 8 or 9 card a Gem Mint 10??

[CMIZ5290]

Outstanding question Michael. I damn sure would not want to bet against it from ever having happened....

[botn]

I cannot speak to anyone being bought off but I feel the 10 grade in most instances is completely arbitrary and predicated solely on who submitted it, especially now.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by ruth-gehrig

Serious question....What are the odds that a card grader could be "bought off" to give a legitimate 8 or 9 card a Gem Mint 10??

In my opinion they are high since the grading process is both quantitative and qualitative not solely quantitative. Given that there is that degree of judgement involved who is to say or who is to prove that someone acted improperly. With that uncertainty I would think someone might be tempted to act less than fully above board.

[iwantitiwinit]

Additionally I think paying 400k for a piece of cardboard produced as recently as 1969 is crazy. So many other things I can think of that I would personally rather have for 400k. Like a 911 gt3 and a 28 ft regulator. Though I realize the person bidding 400k already has them plus anything else he probably wants.

[ruth-gehrig]

Additionally, what safeguards are in place to prevent a grader from submitting their own cards, say through a family member or friend that they get to grade themselves??

[Marckus99]

Utterly ridiculous. Period.

With just $100k, you could buy a BUNCH of wax boxes and pull a fresh one or several for that matter.

Insane.

[jhs5120]

Originally Posted by Marckus99

Utterly ridiculous. Period.

With just $100k, you could buy a BUNCH of wax boxes and pull a fresh one or several for that matter.

Insane.

Do you have a link to several 1969 Topps Basketball wax boxes for sale?

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by ruth-gehrig

Additionally, what safeguards are in place to prevent a grader from submitting their own cards, say through a family member or friend that they get to grade themselves??

The fact that the grading process is not more transparent suggests that people should buy the card not the holder. $400k for cardboard that isn't rare except for the number assigned to it by a third-party grading company is just irresponsible. So you have the only PSA 10 on August 19, 2016. What that company or number will mean with respect to that card or otherwise in 5 or 10 years is no certainty. It's just a bet made by someone with ridiculous amounts of disposable wealth.

To each his own, by I much prefer relative card scarcity to high grade scarcity.

[MikeGarcia]

Originally Posted by jhs5120

Do you have a link to several 1969 Topps Basketball wax boxes for sale?

..If anybody wants me , I'll be in the basement rec room for the next few hours......THANK YOU MARK MURPHY !!


...

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Marckus99

Utterly ridiculous. Period.

With just $100k, you could buy a BUNCH of wax boxes and pull a fresh one or several for that matter.

Insane.

Lol if it were that easy the card wouldn't be a pop of only 1. Good luck with your break though. Let me know how it goes.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

The fact that the grading process is not more transparent suggests that people should buy the card not the holder. $400k for cardboard that isn't rare except for the number assigned to it by a third-party grading company is just irresponsible. So you have the only PSA 10 on August 19, 2016. What that company or number will mean with respect to that card or otherwise in 5 or 10 years is no certainty. It's just a bet made by someone with ridiculous amounts of disposable wealth.

To each his own, by I much prefer relative card scarcity to high grade scarcity.

Totally agree with this. Any number of things could burst a 1 of 1 PSA 10's bubble. Perhaps 4-5 more grade out as 10's over the next few years (totally possible with a 1969 card)... or worse, and in line with a previous post, perhaps a scandal is eventually outed, in which graders, or those paying off graders are buying and submitting 9's in order to have them bumped to 10's. Given today's market there could be hundreds of thousands, even millions to be earned, on easy to find, relatively affordable (8-9's of most of these are easily attainable) cards awaiting a bump to 10. I cannot imagine the wages/salary of a grader are enough to full offset the temptation to cash in, that one (or more) may eventually feel. It all seems pretty precarious, with an awful lot outside the buyers' control.

[sushihotwings]

One thing that I believe helps to keep PSA and it's graders on the honest side is that they are publicly traded. This means they have a board of directors which are there to maximize shareholder value but to also act as a check and balance system for management. This can help to prevent shenanigans but nothing is foolproof of course. Plenty of publicly traded scandals as well. Enron etc. As for the Alcinder rookie price, of course it is hard to imagine for normal folk like us to understand. But people paying these prices are CEOs of large corporations, hedge fund guys etc. they have the disposable income and like expensive toys. They also didn't get to where they are in life by being completely foolish with their money. Very rare and one of kind items will always have a market with the uber rich.
David Lamont

[Fred]

What do you think the bidding would be on the card if it were graded PSA 9? That would be the indication of how much influence TPG companies (especially PSA) have over a fool and their money. I suppose it's all relative. If you have millions and millions to piss away then a few hundred K isn't going to kill you.

[eomint]

Well, the gorgeous t206 Cobb 9 that sold last night on SCP seems to indicate that prewar high grade and rare stars are starting to take off. $488,000. When you consider 54 Aarons are selling for $300-350K it makes some of the high grade vintage stuff look like a relative bargain if one can afford it.

[insidethewrapper]

You would think with all the advanced technology today, that cards could be graded without human involvement. Lasers to precisely measure the borders and software developed to assess corners, color etc.
I would definitely send my cards to a company in which the human element is greatly reduced.

I thought the grading companies didn't know who submitted the cards and then I see on the label " From the so and so collection or find :

[bxb]

There is something unsettling about a multi-million dollar market that rises or falls on the whim of one person's opinion in a grading room.

[sushihotwings]

I wish PSA was more transparent in the process of checks and balances. It would be easy enough to explain without giving away any trade secrets. Are the graders really masked as to who the submitter is? Are there extra sets of eyes and opinions given on high value cards before it is slabbed? Simple questions really. I know all the skeptics will laugh at the idea that PSA is not telling the grader if the card is from a high value customer, but they could attempt to explain better to assure the public.
Dave Lamont

[eomint]

It's even more unsettling, far more, when your next President is going to be either totally unpredictable or a proven corrupt pathological liar. And you're worried about the subjective nature of card grading lol...no system is perfect, there will always be a bell curve of talent and honesty in every industry, coin grading has withstood the test of time, I believe card grading, and PSA in particular, though not a pure science, is the best thing we have. PSA being a public company (CLCT) is also going to be subject to SEC regulations and I believe has superior corporate governance. That's about all you can ask for.

[sushihotwings]

Joe Orlando has it good at PSA. I am sure it is fun to be surrounded by the best memoriablia in existence day in and day out and I am sure he gets paid mega bucks for it. He is not going to do something illegal or unethical for any small amount of payoff and I suspect he runs a tight ship for his own job security. He would be foolish to risk what he has going for a few extra bucks to upgrade certain customers cards.
Dave Lamont

[itjclarke]

IMO, even with any checks and balances, and regulation in place, or the best intentions of the company, it would just take one rogue grader/insider (or worse, more than one) to potentially really hurt, or destroy consumer confidence.

I'm not saying I think it is happening, nor that it will, simply that it could. Given the absolute explosion in price of PSA 10s, and the fact that there is such an incremental price disparity between each high grade, 8 to 9, 9 to 10, the ingredients are there. I think this is made much more difficult to enforce given the subjective nature of grading, and that just about any card graded in the 9-10 range could be reasonably assigned +/- its grade. See any "gem mint" card with an OC back btw. That card could be a 9, or a 10, and the price gap between those two could be tens, even hundreds of thousands. A person manipulating grades would only need do so a handful of times to make some huge money.

I agree with a previous poster that transparency is good. If the submitting parties are truly, beyond any doubt masked from the graders, that's a good start. Then perhaps every card that receives a 9 or 10 initially must be routed past several graders, each of whom have no idea other graders have already assigned it a 10. If say 5 of 5 senior graders independently give a card a 10, it actually receives that 10.

Again, I am not saying I think this is happening, nor am I speaking to PSA's (or any other TPG's) integrity. It just seems the potential for temptation is there, especially now with all the registry 1 of 1, gem mint fever. I don't typically get cards graded (submitted twice, total of 4-5 cards) and don't have a dog in the fight between the PSA's, BVG's, SGC's of the world, however like many collectors, I would be greatly impacted if any one of those companies were ever undone by a scandal, as I have dozens of cards graded by each.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by eomint

Well, the gorgeous t206 Cobb 9 that sold last night on SCP seems to indicate that prewar high grade and rare stars are starting to take off. $488,000. When you consider 54 Aarons are selling for $300-350K it makes some of the high grade vintage stuff look like a relative bargain if one can afford it.

This card absolutely blows me away. $500K for a PSA 9 Cobb, and it's not the Green portrait. IMO, the front of the card looks almost like a 10, but the back has some ink bleed and tiny staining. I guess the mix of the two makes for the grade of 9. Having said that, this price stuns me....

[eomint]

There is no PSA 9 Green Portrait, in fact there are no 9s period of any Cobb during his prime except 3 of the Bat off Shoulder, that makes a mint Cobb extremely rare. The last one sold in 2004 at HA for about $60K, implying a 15% compound annual return over the last 12 years to get to the price it sold for. Not cheap but definitely not ridiculous for a gem that survived 110 years like that, you can't pull a card from a pack today that is so stunning.

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by eomint

There is no PSA 9 Green Portrait, in fact there are no 9s period of any Cobb during his prime except 3 of the Bat off Shoulder, that makes a mint Cobb extremely rare. The last one sold in 2004 at HA for about $60K, implying a 15% compound annual return over the last 12 years to get to the price it sold for. Not cheap but definitely not ridiculous for a gem that survived 110 years like that, you can't pull a card from a pack today that is so stunning.

Were you the buyer or the consignor?

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

Were you the buyer or the consignor?

Really, makes you wonder.....

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by eomint

There is no PSA 9 Green Portrait, in fact there are no 9s period of any Cobb during his prime except 3 of the Bat off Shoulder, that makes a mint Cobb extremely rare. The last one sold in 2004 at HA for about $60K, implying a 15% compound annual return over the last 12 years to get to the price it sold for. Not cheap but definitely not ridiculous for a gem that survived 110 years like that, you can't pull a card from a pack today that is so stunning.

Yes, I know. I have the card in a PSA 8OC.....

[eomint]

The Joe Jackson PSA 8 pop 2 was pretty phat as well, you dont see those every day!

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by eomint

The Joe Jackson PSA 8 pop 2 was pretty phat as well, you dont see those every day!

Well there is another currently selling at Heritage. Given finishing price last night, this buyer already got a better price than that one will.

[Jdoggs]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

Well there is another currently selling at Heritage. Given finishing price last night, this buyer already got a better price than that one will.

Eomint is referring to the Jackson that sold at scp auctions and not the Cracker Jack one.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Eomint is referring to the Jackson that sold at scp auctions and not the Cracker Jack one.

Gotcha. So many to keep track of these days. Bummer, I didn't realize SCP was ending last night. I got loads of notices from Mile High, Memory Lane.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by bxb

There is something unsettling about a multi-million dollar market that rises or falls on the whim of one person's opinion in a grading room.

+1. Especially if that card was graded a few years ago. Th whole thing is out of control. If you got a 9 or 10 graded from several years ago, you can get it into a new holder at the same grade, even though the grading standards may have changed.

Look at that 1 of 1 PSA 10 OPC Gretzky that recently sold. Just by looking at it, it's not a "perfect" card. I've seen too many nicer 9's and even some 8's that would compete with or beat it, condition wise. And that is 10 years after 1969.

[BBB]

Would it make mathematic sense to buy 5 or more 9s and send em all in for a 2nd look? Would the odds of making a few $100k be very strong ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[nrm1977]

Originally Posted by sushihotwings

I wish PSA was more transparent in the process of checks and balances. It would be easy enough to explain without giving away any trade secrets. Are the graders really masked as to who the submitter is? Are there extra sets of eyes and opinions given on high value cards before it is slabbed? Simple questions really. I know all the skeptics will laugh at the idea that PSA is not telling the grader if the card is from a high value customer, but they could attempt to explain better to assure the public.
Dave Lamont

Valid points Dave! I would think the graders know who is sending in the big orders by customers. I'm guessing when a "big customer" sends in 300+ cards, the graders knows, "looks like we got another order from John Doe's Cards again". Now, with that said, brings another question, are these graders under pressure to have x-amount of cards graded per minute? If that is the case, I could see grader(s) rushing big orders. Plus, its a friday, Grader #4 has a 300+ order to complete by 5pm, does he just zip through everything to get it done?

I'm pretty sure any grading company aka business takes "care" of their big customers. Just like in any business.

Back on point, I would never pay that much for 1969 card. Granted I think the whole "Gem Mint" grade is a scam! I could see someone paying that much for a Cobb or any other "major" card from the early 1900's. Those cards are much much more rare than any 60s cards. Sure you could say there are only 12 PSA 10 1969 Jabbar's but, keep in mind there are thousands+ of that card that exist. I guess to each his own...

Nick

[Billy5858]

Then perhaps every card that receives a 9 or 10 initially must be routed past several graders, each of whom have no idea other graders have already assigned it a 10. If say 5 of 5 senior graders independently give a card a 10, it actually receives that 10.

Should be a given

+1

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by BBB

Would it make mathematic sense to buy 5 or more 9s and send em all in for a 2nd look? Would the odds of making a few $100k be very strong ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thats a strategy that I have heard works for some. At $700 per card for grading fees it can be expensive. But if you get one to bump that covers a lot of submissions. Assuming you could sell the 9s for what you have in them after I could see it paying off in the long run.

I'd like to ask the guy who consigned the 100 PSA 9 Henderson lot on Heritage if he got any to bump. It would have only taken 1 for that venture to have paid off.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by sushihotwings

Joe Orlando has it good at PSA. I am sure it is fun to be surrounded by the best memoriablia in existence day in and day out and I am sure he gets paid mega bucks for it. He is not going to do something illegal or unethical for any small amount of payoff and I suspect he runs a tight ship for his own job security. He would be foolish to risk what he has going for a few extra bucks to upgrade certain customers cards.
Dave Lamont

Maybe he has a foundation!

[RichardSimon]

Originally Posted by sushihotwings

Joe Orlando has it good at PSA. I am sure it is fun to be surrounded by the best memoriablia in existence day in and day out and I am sure he gets paid mega bucks for it. He is not going to do something illegal or unethical for any small amount of payoff and I suspect he runs a tight ship for his own job security. He would be foolish to risk what he has going for a few extra bucks to upgrade certain customers cards.
Dave Lamont

Is this a tongue in cheek post?
I am not accusing Orlando of anything but multi millionaires steal money from their own companies.
Many people are capable of doing anything for lots of money or even a few bucks. And as this discussed auction shows it is not just a few extra bucks.

[sushihotwings]

It is not actually tongue in cheek. I am sure Joe gets paid very very well and he is surrounded by the coolest sports cards on earth traveling through his shop every day. If you have ever talked with him you can tell he really enjoys the hobby. Nobody is immune from temptation and scandals can and will happen at private and public companies. Having an independent board of directors is an extra layer I find somewhat comforting. They already had one big controversy with the Wagner and I am sure they put extra measures in place to prevent more. I am not naive, but I also won't lose sleep over endless possibilities of corruption. I also don't blame those who prefer to remain skeptics to the end, but that makes it hard to enjoy the hobby when you constantly feel the system is rigged.

Dave Lamont

[itjclarke]

I both love/enjoy the hobby, but also think there's plenty of potential for temptation to take hold of one or more people at a TPG who are regularly holding the key between a card being worth $10K or a $100K. I don't obsess over this at all, but think the circumstances are more prime now than ever given the growing gap in incremental value between 8 to 9 or 9 to 10. Again, I am not singling any person or company out, and do not know enough to think anything is happening. I just think that it very well could happen, and depending on their grading SOP, it may be pretty easy to do (hope it's not).

[Jdoggs]

Alcindor PSA 10 rookie currently at $382k heritage auctions with couple of days to go in auction. Currently the highest bid in heritage auctions is $717k for Ruth sporting news PSA 7 rookie!