First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Jim65

Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),

I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!

I get what you are saying; it is an interesting debate. I just think it is really dicey to project health and production for guys age 35+.

On one of the other message boards I post on, I remember there being a huge debate for how many hits Derek Jeter would finish with. Jeter had a great year as a 38 year old in 2012 with 216 hits (over 3,300 hits through his age 38 season). Some of the people in that discussion were projecting him for 4,000 hits based on that 2012 season. Most people in the thread thought it was a given that he would at least get to Hank Aaron at 3,771 for third all-time.

The following year, he played in only 17 games. Two years after that great season, he retired. I know that is just one anecdotal example, but Markakis still seems really far away to me.

[rats60]

If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?

Sheffield is a clear steroid case too though.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Sheffield is a clear steroid case too though.

I did not realize that. I thought he wasn't. I don't think he would have gotten in anyhow though.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Read Bill James on Biggio.

[maniac_73]

In terms of HOF there is something to be said about consistency and Longevity. It may not be sexy but it's very impressive and as worthy of guys who had shorter careers and more spectacular seasons.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?

Sheffield is an admitted steroid user. He used the "clear" and the "cream" with Bonds. Fred McGriff with 493 has the most home runs by a "clean" player not in the HoF.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rats60

Sheffield is an admitted steroid user. He used the "clear" and the "cream" with Bonds. Fred McGriff with 493 has the most home runs by a "clean" player not in the HoF.

Hard for me to see why the Crime Dog isn't of the same caliber as Dawson, Rice, Perez and Cepeda, though I haven't studied him extensively, just my impression.

[nat]

The problem is that Perez, Rice, and Cepeda were pretty bad choices for the hall. (Dawson is a step above those guys.) Perez is in because the hall has always looked kindly on good players who played for great teams. (Earle Combs, Tony Lazzeri, and so on.) Cepeda and Rice were mistakes. But basically these guys are indistinguishable from hordes of other guys, and McGriff is one of the ones who got left out. (Along with Fred Lynn, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Williams, Dale Murphy, Bob Elliot, Torii Hunter, Brian Giles, Norm Cash, Ellis Burkes, Bernie Williams, and on and on.)

As for Ichiro, he won me over on the HOF thing eventually. The more interesting question is whether he's going to get into the Japanese hall of fame. He was extraordinarily good while playing for Orix, but he came to America at 27. Most of his career has been over here. If I had to guess, though, I'd say that he goes in. Ichiro is the proof that the best Japanese players are world class baseball players. I mean, it's hard to doubt that Oh or Nagashima were world class, but Ichiro is the proof that they were. There is also some precedent here. Hideki Matsui is in the Japanese hall of fame, even though he left Japan at 29. I'd guess that Ichiro is the first player to be inducted into both halls of fame.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by nat

The problem is that Perez, Rice, and Cepeda were pretty bad choices for the hall. (Dawson is a step above those guys.) Perez is in because the hall has always looked kindly on good players who played for great teams. (Earle Combs, Tony Lazzeri, and so on.) Cepeda and Rice were mistakes. But basically these guys are indistinguishable from hordes of other guys, and McGriff is one of the ones who got left out. (Along with Fred Lynn, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Williams, Dale Murphy, Bob Elliot, Torii Hunter, Brian Giles, Norm Cash, Ellis Burkes, Bernie Williams, and on and on.)

As for Ichiro, he won me over on the HOF thing eventually. The more interesting question is whether he's going to get into the Japanese hall of fame. He was extraordinarily good while playing for Orix, but he came to America at 27. Most of his career has been over here. If I had to guess, though, I'd say that he goes in. Ichiro is the proof that the best Japanese players are world class baseball players. I mean, it's hard to doubt that Oh or Nagashima were world class, but Ichiro is the proof that they were. There is also some precedent here. Hideki Matsui is in the Japanese hall of fame, even though he left Japan at 29. I'd guess that Ichiro is the first player to be inducted into both halls of fame.

You never saw Rice play did you?

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by rats60

Sheffield is an admitted steroid user. He used the "clear" and the "cream" with Bonds. Fred McGriff with 493 has the most home runs by a "clean" player not in the HoF.

When did he admit it? I don't recall reading that...though I certainly believe he did.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

When did he admit it? I don't recall reading that...though I certainly believe he did.

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/articl...ld-2667408.php

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by rats60

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/articl...ld-2667408.php

WOW! What a petty guy bonds is! Totally unredeemable IMO.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rats60

If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.

Well before he got to 3000 Bill James called Biggio the best player in baseball, and did a whole analysis showing why he was better than Griffey. The master of small ball.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rats60

If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.

500 HR too. He is clearly in if baseball forgives the roids.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by rats60

If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.

Biggio doesn't belong in the Hall really. Classic accumulator. I think Whitaker and Grich were both more deserving. So 3000 probably played a sizable role in getting him in. That being said, Markakis doesn't even compare all that well with Biggio so I don't think 3000 would put him over the top.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Biggio doesn't belong in the Hall really. Classic accumulator. I think Whitaker and Grich were both more deserving. So 3000 probably played a sizable role in getting him in. That being said, Markakis doesn't even compare all that well with Biggio so I don't think 3000 would put him over the top.

Is it Grich's .266 average that impresses you? He probably could have spent a few more years 'accumulating'. Whitaker 'accumulated' for 19 years as opposed to Biggio's 20, but I don't think another year would have helped much.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I really don't understand the whole Grich thing, past a point, that point being OK maybe he was a guy who was a bit better than his counting stats suggest, but a HOFer? Really?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I really don't understand the whole Grich thing, past a point, that point being OK maybe he was a guy who was a bit better than his counting stats suggest, but a HOFer? Really? Bobby Grich??????