T3 Turkey Red Scarcity List

[quinnsryche]

Hello all. Does anyone know if there is a resource for determining which T3's are more scarce than others? Not front back combos, just player scarcity compared to others only.
Thanks in advance!

[Zach Wheat]

Good question. It is not an easy question to answer without considering backs if you are talking about all the front variations.

Your question is complicated by the fact that card fronts are somewhat correlated with the card backs. For instance, card #90 "Doolan" was found with the second series (#77-126) checklist back, but the corrected version "Doolin" is found with the ad back. There were several other cards that were updated...and the second series or updated version with an ad back can be found with team changes on the front or corrected spellings.

I am not positive, but I think #114 Bob Rhoades is considered the most scarce. Perhaps one of the T3 collectors can chime in.

[PolarBear]

Are all 100 subjects found with the ad back?

[Rob D.]

You might find this site useful (if you haven't already visited):

http://www.t3turkeyred.com/

[FrankWakefield]

As I understand it, someone who mailed in coupons could request a particular card. So the popular stars of the day would have been requested more often. Today, some of those guys are HOFers, so the price for them reflects the HOF status, and not the scarcity. Cards that don't name a player, such as "Out at Third" would have been requested less often than a name player, and would likely be less plentiful, but also less in demand. The second series of cards are slightly less plentiful that the first. And, the cards that mention two teams for a player are the scarcer of those cards for that player, I think. The T9 boxers are encountered less often than the T3 baseball players, even though they're realistically of the same bunch. RobD has targeted you in on a good site for T3s.

Finally, I agree with "Zach Wheat" up there, the Rhoades card, #114, may well be the most difficult card to locate. Still, cards like Mathewson depict a HOFer and are so attractive, that currently the price for a Mathewson exceeds the price you'd pay for a Rhoades, if you can find one for sale.

[Jay Wolt]

When I was working on the set, Kitty Bransfield was a very tough card

[ethicsprof]

Craig's website mentioned by Rob is top drawer.
do take a look at it.
i,too,love the Turkey Reds but have limited myself---in a type collecting vein--- to the Downey batting with Turkey Red back and the Turkey Red tobacco pack with 1911 overstamp.
now that i've looked at the site again, i'm about to add another one to the
ole type collection.

best,
barry

[Bicem]

Rhoades has actually come up a lot over the past few years, I think his T3 being difficult is somewhat overrated.

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by Bicem

Rhoades has actually come up a lot over the past few years, I think his T3 being difficult is somewhat overrated.

I agree.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by PolarBear

Are all 100 subjects found with the ad back?

Don, I think only 49 players in the second series have the Turkey Red ad back; Rhoades #114 is found with the checklist back and is presumably more scarce for this reason. All checklist backs can be found w/ ad.

Please note the series 1 discussion about ads refers to the language at the bottom of the checklist or "ad" for coupon redemption. Series 1 cards can be found with and w/o this ad; cards without this language are referred to as "No Ad" backs; series 2 discussion regarding ads generally refers to the Turkey Red ad back. All series 2 cards with a checklist back have the ad for coupon redemption at the bottom - and therefore to answer your question, all cards can be found with the ad. Note: there are no series 2 "No Ad" back cards.

[FrankWakefield]

"A survey was taken in 1981. Eleven collectors of T3's were polled. Combined, they owned 725 T3's and 76 T9's. The following observations were made... Of the 11 collectors polled only two had card #114, Rhoades. There were at least six of all other players."

Lew Lipset - The Encyclopedia of Baseball Cards, Volume 3.


Those collectors were collecting toward completing a set, searching for one of each, not accumulating duplicates.


I'm not saying that the Rhoades card is scarce. It is nowhere near T206's Wagner, Plank, Magie, or the Polar Bear cards of Demmitt and O'Hara; nowhere near as tough as E90-1's Mitchell; nor T207's Lowdermilk; nor T210's Jackson or Stengel.

Mr. Lipset notes that the series 2 backs that omit the premium offer and mailing address are much more difficult to locate than the other backs, but that (at the time of his printing) there is only a small price premium. And, Mr. Lipset says "There are no great rarities in the T3 series... "

Having said all of that, tracking down a T3 Rhoades is a chore. I was after one 14 years before I almost got one, a west coast dealer sold it out from under me, knowing that it was on my short want list he had, he said he just didn't bother to check the list. 4 more years and I snagged one.

I think if we surveyed all board members we'd find that there are more of us that don't have a T3 Rhoades than there are that do. And I think our population for them would not reflect the reality of what's out there. I have about 4 T3's. Rhoades is the only one I'd sought for years, the others I gathered in because of the opportunity at the moment. That would be the deal for several of us here. If we surveyed all of our T206 holdings, the folks that collect a team, or HOFers, or a particular HOFer would skew our survey so that it didn't reflect the proportions of all cards. I'll dig around and see if I can find a scan of mine, or dig down to the card itself and scan it. In the meantime, for those who say that finding a Rhoades card isn't so difficult, I look forward to seeing theirs. I think Mr. Lipset had it about right...

[Bicem]

I stand by my statement.

[majordanby]

the rhoades is typically perceived as a difficult card to attain. However, it has been up for sale quite a bit in recent years. This is likely correlated with the increased demand and popularity of the set. I actually purchased a Rhoades at what i thought was a very good price a few years back. I sold it due to financial reasons for a slight loss.

I've found the bransfield and the kleinow to be tougher to find. The HOF'ers, specifically Speaker, Evers, Johnson, Mathewson, Lajoie and Cobb, generally are fairly expensive, even at lower grades. horizontal cards also are relatively expensive, even for non HOF'ers. Whenever i do see a kleinow up for auction, it goes for higher than i expected/want.

i started collecting this set at the unfortunate time it was hot only to see the prices of these cards dampen quite a bit since then. i've been forced to sell quite a few of them, some at a loss, due to financial constraints.

try doing a search on this forum for "turkey scarcity." there are a few posts discussing t3 scarcity, specifically related to backs.

[FrankWakefield]

Still haven't broken him out. I think Mr. Lipset had it about right, no rarities, but he put a premium on Rhoades. I don't doubt a disproportionate number of Rhoades have been graded, and maybe regraded. (I cannot understand why folks let the 3PG folks get by with calling their reports 'Population Reports', when what is reported is the number of times they've graded a certain type of card and not the number of those cards that they've graded.) I anticipate 5 or 6 dozen postings of scans of this common T3...

[Rob D.]

Though anecdotal evidence and a poll of 11 collectors nearly 30 years ago is compelling, the fact remains that enough T3 Rhoades cards have been for sale or auctioned the past couple years to bring into question its perceived scarcity within the set. No one said it's a common T3.

[FrankWakefield]

You could be right, Rob.


Mr. Lipset was right about some other things 30 years ago... notwithstanding the anecdotal methodology that he employed with the assistance of Edward Wharton-Tigar [check out his Wikipedia page], Jack Carson, Bill Haber, Ron Oser, Don Steinbach, John Thorn, and others. Those were some anecdote-telling fellas. Maybe Lew got it right about card #114. 11 collections of T3s, averaging about 66 cards each of the 100 baseball cards (or 105 with variations), any given card appeared at least 6 times but for card #114 which appeared only twice. Or, excluding Rhoades they could have together assembled 6 complete sets, but only 2 sets if Rhoades is included.

[jtschantz]

I've collected T3's (HOFers and Cleveland players) on and off for almost 30 years. I have only owned (or had the chance to buy) one nice Rhoades T3 in all of those years. Here it is.

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

You could be right, Rob.


Mr. Lipset was right about some other things 30 years ago... notwithstanding the anecdotal methodology that he employed with the assistance of Edward Wharton-Tigar [check out his Wikipedia page], Jack Carson, Bill Haber, Ron Oser, Don Steinbach, John Thorn, and others. Those were some anecdote-telling fellas. Maybe Lew got it right about card #114. 11 collections of T3s, averaging about 66 cards each of the 100 baseball cards (or 105 with variations), any given card appeared at least 6 times but for card #114 which appeared only twice. Or, excluding Rhoades they could have together assembled 6 complete sets, but only 2 sets if Rhoades is included.

When I mentioned anecdotal evidence, I wasn't referring to Lew.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by majordanby

the rhoades is typically perceived as a difficult card to attain. However, it has been up for sale quite a bit in recent years. This is likely correlated with the increased demand and popularity of the set. I actually purchased a Rhoades at what i thought was a very good price a few years back. I sold it due to financial reasons for a slight loss.

I've found the bransfield and the kleinow to be tougher to find. The HOF'ers, specifically Speaker, Evers, Johnson, Mathewson, Lajoie and Cobb, generally are fairly expensive, even at lower grades. horizontal cards also are relatively expensive, even for non HOF'ers. Whenever i do see a kleinow up for auction, it goes for higher than i expected/want.

i started collecting this set at the unfortunate time it was hot only to see the prices of these cards dampen quite a bit since then. i've been forced to sell quite a few of them, some at a loss, due to financial constraints.

try doing a search on this forum for "turkey scarcity." there are a few posts discussing t3 scarcity, specifically related to backs.

It may be just semantics regarding Rhoades....certainly it seems as if Rhoades is more difficult than commons. Has anyone had difficulty locating Bransfield or Kelinow? Just curious.

[T3s]

Hi all,

Nice to get some T3 chat now and then. Rhoades is scarce, but simply because it's a "short-print" of sorts, not being found with the "ad-back". I don't have a theory as to why not. Assuming the cards were printed on sheets, it seems like even if Rhoades was requested less by collectors early in the second series run, they wouldn't have changed the sheet. I won't contradict Rob - they are out there, but relatively hard to find.

If anyone finds a Rhoades with an ad-back, I'd love to see it (and own it). As an aside, someone got a steal recently by winning the Rhoades proof in the most recent REA auction. I missed it, but would gladly pay more than it went for (anyone, anyone?)

The first series "action" poses are also difficult to find, no doubt about it. Meyers being pretty tough amongst that group.

McIntyre (Brooklyn) is tough, as is Paskert (Cin & Phil).

Without question, the two hardest cards are Tenney (NY & Bos) and Doolin. No doubt about it. Of the two, I'd give the nod for hardest to the Doolin.

Sorry for not keeping my site up to date. However, aside from the buy-sell page, not much new to say about T3s overall.

Hope that helps,
Craig Diamond

[Republicaninmass]

I have been working on the set for a number of years and I have never seen a Rhodes for a "common" price. The other two tough ones appear to be Bransfield and Davy Jones (last sale $331 for a PSA 1 4/01/07) for some reason. I did get the Tenny Ny/bos by accident in a beckett holder and it will go into my set at some point. Graded I am 78% and still have 6-7 raw to add.

also working on the t9's where is seems Marto and Jeanette are tough to locate

[Bridwell]

There have been over 3,900 Turkey Reds graded by PSA now. So, certainly this is another source of information for you. It seems virtually every card has at least 20 graded now, so none of these is super scarce.

I agree with Craig that Tenney, McIntire, Paskert, Doolin are some of the lowest populations and there were 2 variations of these cards so each type seems pretty tough if you feel you have to collect both variations.

Collecting all the back variations is another way to make this set super tough.

[T3s]

Hi again,

As noted, the PSA pop report can be valuable from a macro view. For instance, if you simply look at the number of 2nd series cards graded versus 1st series cards, you see a real difference.

However, even 3900 submissions (don't forget that the PSA pop report includes T9s as well) is a relatively low number. I used to follow it pretty closely and know there have been a few instances (Rhoades for instance) where a few cards were re-submitted many times in hopes of a better grade - thus inflating the pop. Also, in some cases (McIntyre - Brook), PSA did not do a good job in properly labeling the cards (I once had 4 of them, all labeled incorrectly). Thankfully, to decipher which Paskert, Tenney or Doolin pop you are looking at, one can simply look to the "checklist back" or "Turkey Red back" notation and see the difference. I guess my point is, that when dealing with the scarcer cards in the set, the pop report may not tell the whole tale.

I can say that I haven't checked the pop report for at least a year, but my own two cents on other difficult cards - Jones, Wilson, Bescher (and maybe a few others which I'll keep a secret for now).

As a final aside, if one can find a Turkey Red back of Bell, Browne or Sullivan (or Rhoades), please let me know.

Happy Collecting,
Craig Diamond

[Republicaninmass]

I agree on the Wilson as well, I picked up a cheap SGC authentic for now. I had forgot about that one...and a couple others I am keeping secret

[tedzan]

Why Bob Rhoades is in this set is a mystery to me, as his Major Lge. career ended in the Summer of 1909.

The first series of T3's were issued some time in 1910. And, when ALC realized Rhoades' career ended, ALC
short-printed his card.


TED Z

[FrankWakefield]

Generally, a card was mailed out when a card was requested. With Rhoades retired, fewer requests seem likely. Stll waiting for that blitz of postings of Rhoades cards, since some think there are lots of them out there.

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

Stll waiting for that blitz of postings of Rhoades cards, since some think there are lots of them out there.

I'm not in the camp that thinks there are a lot out there.
But here's one I had awhile ago

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

Having said all of that, tracking down a T3 Rhoades is a chore. I was after one 14 years before I almost got one...

14 years?! Did you try looking?

How many have sold publicly in the past five years? 4 or 5? To me, that is a lot, regardless if board members have them to post or not.

[Rob D.]

---

[FrankWakefield]

Well Jeff, you continue to think there's lots of them out there. I won't think that. Tony can think what he wants.

I'd reckon more than 4 or 5 Wagner T206's have been sold the last five years, that doesn't mean that there's lots of them out there to me.

Final time; I don't think any of the T3s are rare. I think if you stacked them all up in piles, the pile of Rhoades cards would be the least tall. The cards where multiple teams are listed (eg Tenney) and the action piles wouldn't be very tall, either. I'm not counting transactions, nor am I counting how often a particular card has been graded by someone... I'm counting cards. And of the T3's, Rhoades cards are less plentiful than the others. Will still await folks posting their Rhoades cards that they actually have.

[drumback]

I would consider adding Smith to the list of tough ones. Otherwise, It's Myers, Bescher, Bransfield, Paskert, Rhoades, Tenney and Wilson. When I put my set together, the last one I was able to track down with decent eye appeal was Myers.

Also, I'm not totally convinced they weren't all printed in the same quantity. In the advertising, if I recall correctly, the company reserved the right to send an alternate card if they ran out of the one requested by the customer. I believe they may have resorted to this regularly. How else can you explain the fact that there appear to be only three times as many cards of Cobb as there are of your average common?

If a similar promotion were started today, and two of the players were, say, Albert Pujols and Billy Butler, would you only get three times as many requests for Pujols? It would probably be something more like 10 to 1, or 20 to 1. Cobb was at the peak of his career. His ratio over someone like, say, Bill Burns should have been more in the 20 to 1 ratio than the 3 to 1 ratio. Same with Matty, who was probably the most popular player in America in 1911. But according to the PSA population report, which I admit I also haven't seen in over a year, Cobb's ratio over Burns is something like 3 to 1. Matty's is even less than that. Also, consider that since Cobb is much more valuable than Burns, he is likely to get graded at a much higher percentage of his total number of cards printed than Burns. That would make the difference between them even smaller still.

If this is true, the question then becomes, what happened to all of the common cards printed but never requested or shipped out? Most likely, they were destroyed. Otherwise, they would have eventually made their way into the collecting public, and there would be just as many Burns as Cobbs on the market.

Here's a weak scan of my Rhoades (PSA 2).

[Bicem]

Craig once showed me a pic of like 5 Rhoades cards he owned fanned out across each other, it was pretty cool, maybe he'll share that one.

[majordanby]

Here's the rhoades i once owned. i think i sold it around a half year to a year later because of financial hardship. it sold below my purchase price, which was obviously disappointing.

[Rob D.]

I was just browsing the closing prices of Legendary's auction this week. Given the purported scarcity of the T3 Rhoades, it seems someone got a great deal on this:

http://legendaryauctions.com/LotDeta...100&category=1

Congrats to the lucky buyer!

[Bicem]

And this one too...

http://legendaryauctions.com/LotDeta...x?lotid=111552

But it's been
14 years of silence
It's been
14 years of pain
It's been
14 years that are gone forever
And I'll never have again!

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by Bicem

And this one too...

http://legendaryauctions.com/LotDeta...x?lotid=111552

But it's been
14 years of silence
It's been
14 years of pain
It's been
14 years that are gone forever
And I'll never have again!

Thank you for posting that link. I had not realized there were two T3 Rhoades in the auction.