Biggest changes in the past 5 years?

[sesop]

This may be a bit long. Thanks for reading.

I came back to the hobby after what turned out to be a 5-year hiatus after my first child was born. I didn't realize how much I missed it until last night when I looked at Leon and Scott's auction and saw several cards I had been looking for before I took a break. While I was disappointed to be outbid on all bids, I was kind of surprised by the hammer price- seemed low. A check on ebay later in the evening was a revelation- the listing mechanics are very different- baseball cards sorted into categories including "pre-WW2," which is different than I remember- while I can't recall exactly how it was, I do remember it being more specific somehow- a T206 category, perhaps? The prices on eBay, even some of the BINs, which were always outrageous fantasy prices, seemed more reasonable.

I have a slew of questions as if I've woken up from being in a coma for the past 5 years, but the biggest one is about the market in general. While I was never into cards for the money, I do hope that anything I buy will at the very least retain its value so that when my kids go to sell my collection, they aren't sitting on thousands of dollars in "worthless" cardboard. I guess that with more crap to spend one's disposable income on, there's less money for cards and thus prices haven't been as strong lately? Is my perspective skewed? faulty memory? Wrong context? Are there a lot of new people coming into the hobby? What about popular issues- when I "left," the T206s were king. Still true? How about some of the more esoteric issues- anything gaining in popularity? My mind has been going a thousand miles a minute with questions, but maybe the best way to address this would be to ask, simply, from your perspective, what have been the biggest changes in the hobby over the past 5 years? What are the biggest differences? I know everyone's perspective is going to be different, but I'd love to glean some insight from anyone who cares to offer some input to help a fellow collector ease back into things.

I see a lot of new names here- im looking forward to reconnecting with old friends, meeting new friends, and jumping back in with both feet!

Thanks in advance.

[ullmandds]

David...you are a lucky man my friend!!!!! You totally missed paying ultra high prices for tougher types of almost any kind...in the last 5 years...T206 rare backs have advanced to ridiculous levels...t206 freaks/proofs/scraps are ultra hot these days too!

Bread cards have turned to poop!

Any early ruth card has turned to gold...and sadly those tougher tough cards that were in the stratosphere 5 yrs ago...have returned to ex-nm t206 common prices.

T206 is sadly still king as well!

Sorry for my disjointed response...you'll get plenty of more coherent responses...

[Bocabirdman]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

David...you are a lucky man my friend!!!!! You totally missed paying ultra high prices for tougher types of almost any kind...in the last 5 years...T206 rare backs have advanced to ridiculous levels...t206 freaks/proofs/scraps are ultra hot these days too!

Bread cards have turned to poop!

Any early ruth card has turned to gold...and sadly those tougher tough cards that were in the stratosphere 5 yrs ago...have returned to ex-nm t206 common prices.

T206 is sadly still king as well!

Sorry for my disjointed response...you'll get plenty of more coherent responses...

Peter...There is nothing wrong with a nice disjoint (or datjoint?) first thing Sunday morning. I can think of no better way to start the day.

[sesop]

Thanks Peter. I always liked bread cards but could never find one I wanted at a reasonable price other than a Nap Rucker I once owned in SGC 20. Perhaps this belongs on the BST, but if whoever bought my Rucker has it and wants to sell at a loss, I'm a buyer.

Seriously- when you say poop, do you mean that the Hal Chase card I always wanted (always seemed to go for over $1,000 even in less than spectacular shape) can be had for practically nothing? Damn! I should add bread cards to my BST post.

Any idea why they went down so far?

When I left, rare back T206s were pricey. It's tough to imagine them going much higher.

[rainier2004]

Peter seemed to nail the t206 market. I can attest the 1915 CJ prices rising and the 1914s rising very dramatically as we approach their century mark and there is a book due out fall of 1913 highlighting them and their history. I haven't notice too much of a change in goudeys except the Ruth cards. It seems truly rare 'e' cards have also risen at a faster rate like e107s. But there are a tons of hunters out there looking for the 1/1 examples as far as color, misprints and a ton of quirky things. Welcome back!

[ullmandds]

Another significant change is the sentiment away from ebay...to a plethera of newer...smaller auction houses...

[btkpath]

Hi David.......welcome back to the fold!

I can only comment on the things I collect. In my opinion, over the past several years, 1933 Goudey's (especially those in modest grade) have taken a hit and show no immediate sign of returning to levels of 5 years ago. t205's seem to have been a good bargain over the past 5 years and continue to be lower than typical levels. Lastly, after several years of being depressed, 1914 Cracker Jacks have exploded recently and (as Steve mentioned) are very strong as the 100th anniversary approaches.

Likewise, as has been previously mentioned, being on the sidelines you can't help but notice the very strong demand and pricing for uncommon t206 backs and early Ruth cards.

[sesop]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Another significant change is the sentiment away from ebay...to a plethera of newer...smaller auction houses...

I was thinking that the action must have shifted- would it be uncouth to ask what are some of the alternates to eBay nowadays? How about vintagecardprices.com? Is that still the best place to go for price guides?

I feel like I stepped out of a time machine - I literally haven't spent more than half a second thinking about cards since sometime just after net54 left the old board.

With regard to the price drops in bread, etc, any idea why? Less collectors or just lest interest?

How about the PSA 8 Wagner- any new developments with that?

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

David...you are a lucky man my friend!!!!! You totally missed paying ultra high prices for tougher types of almost any kind...in the last 5 years...

Hi Pete,

I agree with your specific set examples, but I disagree with this summary.

If David was buying pre-war cards up to late 2007, and then took a break from 2008-2012, I think he missed an amazing time to be a buyer.

When you compare prices on almost anything from late 2007 to now, the current price is a whole lot less. With some exceptions Pete mentioned (T206 backs, scraps, and the biggies, Ruth RC, etc.), prices have been way down. I think 2009-2010 were fantastic years to buy.

I also had a little hiatus (between 2005-2008) and I am sooooooo thankful in a general sense that I wasn't buying in those years. When I re-entered the hobby and got VCP, I was astounded by the prices people were paying in 2006-2007. I spent quite a lot of time on VCP and it was a real eye-opener for me as I got back into the hobby.

By 2009, I would sometimes buy a card for 1/5 of what the exact card sold for in 2006-2007!

I feel that prices have recovered somewhat now, but not approaching 2006-2007 levels.

Another way to confirm this is go back over the auction archives at REA. You'll see how many card prices took a dive from 2009-on.

In answer to David's questions about E-cards, they are generally quite a bit off of their peak prices from pre-2008. E90-1 is soft, E91 surprisingly has been rising, E92 is generally soft, but it depends on the back, E93 is soft, E94 is strong, E95 is soft, E96 is holding, E97 varies from strong to holding, E98...you need to learn about the Black Swamp Find, if you have not yet. E101 and E102 have been soft. E103 has been surprisingly somewhat soft. E107 remains strong. 1914 Cracker Jack is gaining strength. 1915 Cracker Jack is quite soft.

Some other cards that are way off their highs from 2006-2007:

D cards
T3
T205
Goudey

I think the sale of the "Louisiana Find" at REA showed T215 Red Cross are softer now than in prior years.

Of course these are all generalizations, but might give you some flavor for what you missed.

Cheers,
Blair

[T206Collector]

Welcome back!

I think T206 SLers have stayed relatively constant. What you do see is price reflecting the sophistication of T206 buyers, who understand that Tenney and Ganley are tougher than Grimshaw and Stone, e.g.

You can tell where the market is softest by comparing BINs to auctions on ebay. You'll still see a bunch of T206 auctions, but not so much in caramel cards, where demand has definitely slipped. Caramels are a good buy now, but sellers are still holding on to the higher prices, probably because they have too much into them.

Oh, and signed T206 cards are now extremely hard to find. In 2007, ebay had maybe 30-40 auctions of them because of the Pittsburgh Find. This year, I am still waiting for just one.

[drc]

Some things never change. I'm still beautiful and brilliant.

[vintagecpa]

I took some time away from collecting at various points. From my observation, I have noticed the following changes. 1. Rare-backs and rare colors for some Carmel issues have gone wild. 2. Red Sox Ruth cards now require a second mortgage. 3. The number of Unscrupulous people doesn't seem to ever go down on EBay. 4. Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, etc. hold their value. 5. When you are bidding on a high-value card, you better find a picture of the same card in a past auction or on VCP to make sure it is the same card. 6. The infield fly rule now goes back to the warning track. (sorry, just a bitter Braves fan).

[Brian Van Horn]

Guys,

What I am seeing is fewer collectors. The ones that remain, I have known for a good percentage of them for years.

Also, it is 2012. We are talking in a lot of cases cards that are a 100 years old. Fame is fleeting. Ruth, Cobb, Johnson, Wagner and Mathewson (the original five HoF inductees) being the exceptions.

Finally, what are the three sets that get the most attention from a new collector? T206, Cracker Jack and Goudey. Why? The colors.

So, the question is how to make collecting appealing to a younger generation of fans who have a lot of distractions.

The profile you need of a collector is someone who is curious about history, who is also a huge sports fan, especially baseball. He then needs to expand that curiosity to other sets and to develop a fondness for black and white. Otherwise.......

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

*** 6. The infield fly rule now goes back to the warning track. (sorry, just a bitter Braves fan).

Right on! That ball was out in no-man's land, where a lot of "you've got it" "no, you take it" habitually occurs between outfielder and infielder--quite a few of the balls hit there drop, and thus it was ludicrous to contend that it could have been caught with reasonable effort. Secondly, the rule was intended to prevent the fielder from intentionally dropping a pop-fly to bring about an easy doubleplay. There is no way that intentionally allowing that ball to land in that location could have produced an easy double play. The infield fly rule had no application there at all.

But back to the main subject of the thread--I think that what we've seen in the last 5 years, along with the down economy reducing discretionary income, is the fact that collecting trends and the popularity of various cards and sets has and will continue to change over time. The same thing happened repeatedly in coins, which have had an organized market since the late 1850's, far longer than the organized baseball card market has been around. Items that rode the crest of the popularity wave in one decade slipped to a position way down the list in the next! Various issues in coins consequenty waxed and waned in value, and continue to be subject to price cycles (although truly rare and significant pieces in both collecting fields have tended to bear consistently upwards in price, sometimes astonishingly so--1914 Baltimore News Ruth, anyone? And sometimes the shear overwhelming significance of a card alone is enough--see the M101 Ruth rookie, a card that might be characterized as somewhat scarce, but is certainly not rare). Look for emerging significant rarities (I like the T206 rare-back HOF'ers here, although I don't collect T206, along with a number of the rare cards I do own of upper tier HOF'ers but won't tout here) to continute to increase in price dramatically. The only real trick is to spot them before they get out of reach price-wise!

I certainly share your appreciation for the expertise of a vast number of the members of this board, and its good to have you back!

Larry