10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.

+1


To Larry's point about limited supply due to collectors keeping the cards, I believe that is at play too. So you combine the increased demand with a more limited supply, one doesn't need to be an economist to predict what that will do to price.

To Peter's point about why now is this happening when these forces have been around for years, what might be different now, which Barry's post alludes to, is investment advisors have entered the fray and are steering people toward no-brainer-can't lose baseball cards (which if that doesn't apply to a nice looking card of the all-time win leader who has an award named after him in arguably the most storied set of all time that contains the famous Wagner card, that term has no meaning). There is a lot of money looking for a place to be invested, and unlike commodities, a product that offers one no satisfaction in ownership (how many people take pleasure in looking at their soybeans), investing in aesthetically pleasing vintage baseball cards of players that everybody has heard of offers the card owner the additional intangible return of satisfaction of ownership.

As Peter correctly says, time will tell if this is just a passing phenomena, but my belief is that it is not and as long as the 8 prices hold, these new 5 prices of NICE LOOKING 5's, as exemplified by the $10k Young, are here to stay.

[ullmandds]

I have a habit of listening to Bloomberg radio more often than I should and they have a recurring commercial that comes on almost every 20 to 30 minutes extolling the virtues of investing in Fine 19th century antique furniture...When I start hearing advertisements suggesting people invest in fine, well centered T206 cards then maybe i’ts time to exit the hobby!!

[Rhotchkiss]

Pete, let me know if you are exiting “the hobby”- I am sure we can cut a deal on a number of your cards!

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I have a habit of listening to Bloomberg radio more often than I should and they have a recurring commercial that comes on almost every 20 to 30 minutes extolling the virtues of investing in Fine 19th century antique furniture...When I start hearing advertisements suggesting people invest in fine, well centered T206 cards then maybe i’ts time to exit the hobby!!

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

[Leon]

Longtime book collectors are in somewhat the same pickle, as you well know. Not all collectibles stay in favor but my guess is that baseball cards hold on for a lot longer. (at least until we are dust )

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Leon

Longtime book collectors are in somewhat the same pickle, as you well know. Not all collectibles stay in favor but my guess is that baseball cards hold on for a lot longer. (at least until we are dust )

Agreed that baseball cards probably have more staying power than other collectibles, but they are not impervious to market forces. Our hobby is almost entirely demand driven, so that demand could easily wane sometime in the future. I'm not making any predictions, I have no idea what the future holds, but it would be foolish to think this stuff can only go up.

[Leon]

I agree. And had anyone heavily invested/collected caramel cards 10-15 yrs ago they would be upside down now (for the most part).

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Agreed that baseball cards probably have more staying power than other collectibles, but they are not impervious to market forces. Our hobby is almost entirely demand driven, so that demand could easily wane sometime in the future. I'm not making any predictions, I have no idea what the future holds, but it would be foolish to think this stuff can only go up.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

Exactly Barry...leon... so when we start hearing commercials on the radio it’s already too late!

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

Is this the furniture BST section?

I have a fine antique square table suitable for playing cards, sorting cards or playing tabletop baseball sim games. It was crafted in 1830 and is made of real wood, not particle board. Photos available upon request. Serious offers only. If you are in need of firewood, kindly do not respond.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Is this the furniture BST section?

I have a fine antique square table suitable for playing cards, sorting cards or playing tabletop baseball sim games. It was crafted in 1830 and is made of real wood, not particle board. Photos available upon request. Serious offers only. If you are in need of firewood, kindly do not respond.

I have a beautiful 1890's oak roll top desk. I bought it in 1988 for $2200, and I was lucky to get it. Back then there were a hundred antique stores in my neighborhood (there are maybe two left), and I had to get on a lot of waiting lists and be really aggressive to land it. It was my holy grail, and I still use it today. I imagined how much it would be worth as the years passed.

Well it's thirty years later, and I'm thinking of selling it. Anyone care to bail me out at cost? How about a discount below my cost? How about I throw in the cost of your rental van if you are willing to come and pick it up?

That is the state of the antique roll top desk market.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

I've heard the same thing about model trains. They were really hot when I was young (so I'm told), but today there is almost no interest in them. Collectors can't come close to getting their money back when they sell.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Sean

I've heard the same thing about model trains. They were really hot when I was young (so I'm told), but today there almost no interest in them. Collectors can't come close to getting their money back when they sell.

I don't believe the new generation cares at all about antiques. Why spend a lot of money on an antique when you can go to Ikea and buy something brand new for a whole lot less? That's why I am a little bearish on the long time future of the baseball card hobby. Current collectors are still avid buyers and will probably remain so. But the next generation, I'm not so sure. Time will tell.

[tmw2ward]

Interesting point about the future of collecting...I wonder what the average age of a collector on net 54 is? I'm 40, would be cool to see someone put up a poll...

[Rhotchkiss]

+1. Whoever is savy enough to do it, how about a poll asking how old people on the board are. I am 44.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

To Larry's point about limited supply due to collectors keeping the cards, I believe that is at play too. So you combine the increased demand with a more limited supply, one doesn't need to be an economist to predict what that will do to price.

If more collectors are keeping their cards how come there are more auction houses than ever, ebay sales of prewar are brisk and there are other outlets (facebook etc.) that also sell tons of pre-war cards?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

If more collectors are keeping their cards how come there are more auction houses than ever, ebay sales of prewar are brisk and there are other outlets (facebook etc.) that also sell tons of pre-war cards?

I think the reality is that more people are flipping cards today than ever before

[Millerd33]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I think the reality is that more people are flipping cards today than ever before

This is a fact. Especially noticeable on facebook razz groups. (raffle groups where you buy a spot for a chance to win a card)

I see countless cards sell on ebay for more than a straight sale could bring normally and put up in these groups for 20% more and they sell quickly.

This is one of the reasons (besides the legality issue of such raffles) that we do not allow them in our pre war fb group.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Millerd33

This is a fact. Especially noticeable on facebook razz groups. (raffle groups where you buy a spot for a chance to win a card)

I see countless cards sell on ebay for more than a straight sale could bring normally and put up in these groups for 20% more and they sell quickly.

This is one of the reasons (besides the legality issue of such raffles) that we do not allow them in our pre war fb group.

And this is a similar mentality I saw on many stock message boards leading up to the recent crash...people getting in because it seemed like a sure thing...so easy to buy because everything just keeps going up...and look where we are now. not to say this will happen to most caards...just citing a similar example.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bitcoin!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

The explanations I have heard could account for a gradual price rise over time, but not, in my mind, for a sudden meteoric one. People didn't just wake up one night of a PWCC auction to the investment possibilities of nice mid grade T206s, IMO.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The explanations I have heard could account for a gradual price rise over time, but not, in my mind, for a sudden meteoric one. People didn't just wake up one night of a PWCC auction to the investment possibilities of nice mid grade T206s, IMO.

Peter, is this sudden meteoric rise the sale of one PSA 5 T206 Young, or are you referring to a number of comparable transactions? If the former, maybe the explanation is the simplest -- two collectors were chasing that card, had a lot of money, really liked it, and didn't want to wait for another comparable 5 to come along. I'm not saying this is the explanation, only that there is limited information one can derive from a single transaction.

That said, because IMO the price makes sense based on the prices of 8's combined with logical explanations of supply and demand, even though the increase might have happened more quickly than what one is accustomed to seeing, I am hesitant to describe the forces at play anything other than prudent assessment of value. If though the meteoric rise takes the price to a level that seems totally whacked out compared to prices of 8's (e.g., $50k), then I would have more cause to suspect something other than ordinary market forces at play.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Corey this thread was a response to maybe 3 or 4 seemingly way out of line prices in a recent PWCC auction, not any trend.