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  #21  
Old 11-11-2017, 06:37 PM
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Who else is at or near the top of the perception vs reality list? I know Bill James claims for example that Sisler was vastly overrated.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-11-2017 at 06:38 PM.
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  #22  
Old 11-11-2017, 07:02 PM
Econteachert205 Econteachert205 is offline
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I cannot fathom how someone could make an argument that Ron fairly was better than Steve Garvey without explicit desire to drive people insane.

Last edited by Econteachert205; 11-11-2017 at 07:04 PM.
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  #23  
Old 11-11-2017, 07:05 PM
btcarfagno btcarfagno is offline
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Originally Posted by Econteachert205 View Post
I cannot fathom how someone could make an argument that Ron fairly was better than Steve Garvey without explicit desire to drive people insane.
Look at his stats then get back to me.

Tom C

Edit: Also I'm not sure that Fairly is better. In the regular season I would say he is Garvey's equal. Garvey separates with his impressive post season performances.

Last edited by btcarfagno; 11-11-2017 at 07:11 PM.
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  #24  
Old 11-11-2017, 07:22 PM
Econteachert205 Econteachert205 is offline
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I've got to admit it is not nearly as crazy as I thought. Garveys on base kills him.
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  #25  
Old 11-11-2017, 07:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Econteachert205 View Post
I cannot fathom how someone could make an argument that Ron fairly was better than Steve Garvey without explicit desire to drive people insane.
Fairly- career 35.5 fWAR, 117 wRC+, .344 wOBA, -117.8 DEF rating, - 2.9 base running, .768 career OPS, career .142 ISO, 215 homers and 35 stolen bases in 8437 plate appearances

Garvey- 37.8 fWAR, 116 wRC+, .342 wOBA, -118.7 DEF rating, -6.8 base running, .775 OPS, .152 ISO, 272 homers and 83 stolen bases in 9466 plate appearances.


they are strikingly similar players.
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  #26  
Old 11-12-2017, 12:19 AM
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If you had ask someone in 1980 to name some very likely future HOF players, I think Garvey would have been on most people's list when OBP and WAR were not around. Another is Dave Parker. I think the chances of either is slight now. Parker also didn't walk much for a power guy and was plagued by injuries in his prime years and had other issues. Garvey is killed by low OBP and decrease in power in his 30s.

Alternatively, hardly anyone would have mentioned Dwight Evans in 1980 but to me he is a borderline HOFer. His late career surge and high OBP put him in that position.
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  #27  
Old 11-12-2017, 07:50 AM
btcarfagno btcarfagno is offline
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If you had ask someone in 1980 to name some very likely future HOF players, I think Garvey would have been on most people's list when OBP and WAR were not around. Another is Dave Parker. I think the chances of either is slight now. Parker also didn't walk much for a power guy and was plagued by injuries in his prime years and had other issues. Garvey is killed by low OBP and decrease in power in his 30s.

Alternatively, hardly anyone would have mentioned Dwight Evans in 1980 but to me he is a borderline HOFer. His late career surge and high OBP put him in that position.
Evans was also an amazing defensive right fielder while Garvey was pretty much average at a non-premium defensive position. And Parker got a lot of press for his amazing arm (no better than that of Evans by the way) but Parker was a pretty bad defensive right fielder. His routes to balls were horrid and unlike Evans his howitzer for an arm wasn't always that accurate.

Tom C
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  #28  
Old 11-13-2017, 04:25 AM
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Powell was the best offensive player on his team by any and every measure you wish to choose. I suppose if you just go by WAR then Jim Palmer was more valuable, but I doubt you want to bring WAR up, seeing as Steve Garvey in 1974 was FOURTH on his own team in WAR. Garvey was not the best offensive player on his own team by any measure you wish to use that year. He was far down the list in oWAR in 1974, ranking no better than 11th in the league from what I can tell. In WAR he wasn't in the top 20 in the league. Boog was fifth in oWAR in 1970, so while his being named MVP wasn't the best idea in the world (especially with a traditional stats monster yuear from Yaz), it wasn't nearly the joke that Garvey's 1974 selection was.

Range factor and fielding percentage as measures of defensive ability at first base? That's cherry picking nearly useless stats. If the player is from post 1953, Total Zone Runs needs to be the metric used. Historically speaking, let's look at the players whom I have always thought to be outstanding defensive first baseman and the TZR figure:

Keith Hernandez 114
John Olerud 89
George Scott 87
Mark Grace 84
Vic Power 59
Eddie Murray 59
Bill White 55
Rafael Palmeiro 48
Gil Hodges 41 (only 1953-on)
Wes Parker 29
Don Mattingly 29

So even though Parker and Donnie Baseball seem a bit low, overall the best of the best are recognized as such.

How about the worst defensive first basemen? How do they rank?

Frank Thomas (Chi) -61
Dick Stuart -59
Mo Vaughn -43
Jason Giambi -36 (with solid .992 career fielding % - go figure!)
Adam Dunn -34 (in just 528 games)
Dave Kingman -22 (in just 603 games)
Frank Howard -14 (tough in just 334 games)

So TZR does its job as you would expect it to as a metric for defense at first base.

Steve Garvey?

Career TZR at first base?

Negative two.

Not exactly gold glove caliber.

In 1975-1977 as Garvey was winning gold gloves, you know who was also playing first base in the NL? Keith Hernandez. Arguably the greatest fielding first baseman of all time. But sure. Steve Garvey totally earned those gold gloves.

Pete Rose didn't become a first baseman until age 38 in 1979. During and after which he had two solid seasons. Just two. The rest of the time he was pretty bad.

Tony Perez had some consistently decent seasons, but his post 1973 high for OPS+ was 124. So, solid but not great for a 1B for sure.

Keith Hernandez I will grant you.

Willie Stargell was good post 1974 but constantly injured. Over 500 AB in a season just once.

Tom C
Garvey was also 3rd in TZR 3 of his 4 gold glove seasons. So how is someone 3rd in one catagory and 1st in 2 others unworthy of gold glove? I can also throw out that he was playing the most games at 1b, so that durability adds value. He had good seasons at 1b when he won gold gloves, saving 5 and 6 runs. If he had brought that level of defense his whole career, he would be near the top of your list. Gold glove is a yearly award, so having good defensive seasons and winning gold gloves doesn't mean you have to be good defensively over your whole career and if you aren't they take them away and give them to someone else. Garvey did deserve to win.

You rate players by WAR. Garvey was the best player on the Dodgers from 74-81. He doesn't fair well in WAR because He didn't walk a lot. He just got a lot of hits and drove in a lot of runs. I know some of you guys don't like RBIs, but at some point reality has to kick in. To win games one of your players has to actually get hits with RISP, having a high WAR doesn't win anything.

I don't ignore WAR, but at some point actual on field accomplishments have to come into play. There are some players who the stat doesn't fit well, such as Steve Garvey and Bobby Grich. I lived in LA at the time. If you had asked anyone at the park, who was the better player, it would have been unanimous for Garvey. That is probably why Grich only got 11 votes for the HOF and Garvey got 176 the next year when he appeared on the ballot.
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  #29  
Old 11-13-2017, 10:20 AM
btcarfagno btcarfagno is offline
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Garvey was also 3rd in TZR 3 of his 4 gold glove seasons. So how is someone 3rd in one category and 1st in 2 others unworthy of gold glove? I can also throw out that he was playing the most games at 1b, so that durability adds value. He had good seasons at 1b when he won gold gloves, saving 5 and 6 runs. If he had brought that level of defense his whole career, he would be near the top of your list. Gold glove is a yearly award, so having good defensive seasons and winning gold gloves doesn't mean you have to be good defensively over your whole career and if you aren't they take them away and give them to someone else. Garvey did deserve to win.

You rate players by WAR. Garvey was the best player on the Dodgers from 74-81. He doesn't fair well in WAR because He didn't walk a lot. He just got a lot of hits and drove in a lot of runs. I know some of you guys don't like RBIs, but at some point reality has to kick in. To win games one of your players has to actually get hits with RISP, having a high WAR doesn't win anything.

I don't ignore WAR, but at some point actual on field accomplishments have to come into play. There are some players who the stat doesn't fit well, such as Steve Garvey and Bobby Grich. I lived in LA at the time. If you had asked anyone at the park, who was the better player, it would have been unanimous for Garvey. That is probably why Grich only got 11 votes for the HOF and Garvey got 176 the next year when he appeared on the ballot.
That's the problem with the "eye test". Never tells the whole story and often does not tell the correct one. Bobby Grich is one of the ten best players at his position in history. I would put him top 8. Ahead of many many HOFers at the position. Legitimate HOFers I might add. Garvey is way WAY down the list at 1B. How many HOF 1B is Garvey better than? Two. Bottomley and Kelly. Kelly certainly doesn't belong there and Bottomley is borderline at very best.

Tom C

Edit: And you are correct that Garvey was pretty decent in three of the four years he won the gold glove. But being third best in the league in TZR doesn't mean that your gold glove was merited. The last two, certainly, when Hernandez played full seasons in no way shape or form should Garvey have won. I'll be kind and say that he wasn't a terrible selection for the first two years, and that the next two were honorary.

Last edited by btcarfagno; 11-13-2017 at 10:23 AM.
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  #30  
Old 11-13-2017, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by btcarfagno View Post
That's the problem with the "eye test". Never tells the whole story and often does not tell the correct one. Bobby Grich is one of the ten best players at his position in history. I would put him top 8. Ahead of many many HOFers at the position. Legitimate HOFers I might add. Garvey is way WAY down the list at 1B. How many HOF 1B is Garvey better than? Two. Bottomley and Kelly. Kelly certainly doesn't belong there and Bottomley is borderline at very best.

Tom C

Edit: And you are correct that Garvey was pretty decent in three of the four years he won the gold glove. But being third best in the league in TZR doesn't mean that your gold glove was merited. The last two, certainly, when Hernandez played full seasons in no way shape or form should Garvey have won. I'll be kind and say that he wasn't a terrible selection for the first two years, and that the next two were honorary.
And that's the problem Sabermetrics. The "eye test" is more important than any "formula." If you take advanced statistics, that is one of the first things that you are taught. With sabermaticians, they say if your observations don't fit their formula, ignore them. That is unscientific. Scientists make their formulas fit their observations.

I disagree on Grich. Like Simmons, he is better than mistakes in the HOF. He is not top 10 in my opinion. He is not even the best 2b not in the HOF, that is Lou Whitaker. He is not a slam dunk, but I am fine with him in or out of HOF once Whitaker and Garvey are in.

We do agree that Garvey would be towards the bottom of the 1st basemen in the HOF. I just have him a lot higher than you. I have him only behind Keith Hernandez, who along with Alan Trammell are my 2 slam dunks. If we are taking guys who in my mind are marginal candidates, I would take a winner like Garvey and guys who had higher peaks like Mattingly and Murphy. Guys who everyone knew were superstars, but just were not for long enough. It is the Hall of Fame with emphasis on fame, not being above average for a long time.
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