What I Don't Understand about Baseball Card Economics

[Dpeck100]

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

I would bet the restoration could be detected with the right equipment there. It may not be visible to the eye.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would bet the restoration could be detected with the right equipment there. It may not be visible to the eye.

Perhaps.

We then get in to a much larger discussion about whether TPG firms have the wan't or the resources to invest in greater technology. I don't know the answer.

The general point and I believe you will agree is they are pretty good at it and good enough where Brent plans to hire someone to do it for customers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Perhaps.

We then get in to a much larger discussion about whether TPG firms have the wan't or the resources to invest in greater technology. I don't know the answer.

The general point and I believe you will agree is they are pretty good at it and good enough where Brent plans to hire someone to do it for customers.

90 percent of Brent's problem is the people he has chosen to take consignments from, IMO.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

90 percent of Brent's problem is the people he has chosen to take consignments from, IMO.

I am only 40 and also have never gotten into art so I don't have any real perspective on that market. Was there a time when art restoration was frowned upon?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I am only 40 and also have never gotten into art so I don't have any real perspective on that market. Was there a time when art restoration was frowned upon?

Art is all unique. My understanding is that it's always been acceptable to conserve art, or restore if it's been damaged, as long as it's disclosed if there is a sale. Now if it's done to deceive rather than to genuinely conserve it for generations to come or restore it to enhance people's appreciation of it, then we're into baseball card land.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

If we reach the point that a baseball card can be restored with such skill that an alteration cannot be detected, then we should all agree that third party grading will become obsolete.

We can then accept that any baseball card that looks Mint is Mint. It won't matter if it was restored, because nobody will know the difference. Maybe this will be the future look of the hobby.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If we reach the point that a baseball card can be restored with such skill that an alteration cannot be detected, then we should all agree that third party grading will become obsolete.

We can then accept that any baseball card that looks Mint is Mint. It won't matter if it was restored, because nobody will know the difference. Maybe this will be the future look of the hobby.

The reason I always point to the ego driven nature of high grade cards is in my view that is what drives the spread. If you can solve for a humans desire to "have the best" or have something someone else can't then it will change. I just think that human behavior is pretty well established and grading differentiates what started out as very similar items.

There is a big difference between a PSA 8 and a PSA 10. There are much smaller differences between a 9 and a 10. Probably the most liquid card that exists is the 86 Fleer Michael Jordan and under no circumstances will you ever see a card that is an 8 that looks as good as a 10. You easily could see one that is a 9 that does and I am sure some of the 10's started out as a 9. That said there are far too many collectors that get a thrill out of saying they have a 10. This isn't going to change.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The reason I always point to the ego driven nature of high grade cards is in my view that is what drives the spread. If you can solve for a humans desire to "have the best" or have something someone else can't then it will change. I just think that human behavior is pretty well established and grading differentiates what started out as very similar items.

There is a big difference between a PSA 8 and a PSA 10. There are much smaller differences between a 9 and a 10. Probably the most liquid card that exists is the 86 Fleer Michael Jordan and under no circumstances will you ever see a card that is an 8 that looks as good as a 10. You easily could see one that is a 9 that does and I am sure some of the 10's started out as a 9. That said there are far too many collectors that get a thrill out of saying they have a 10. This isn't going to change.

This is pretty much it. And exactly what the registry capitalizes on.

And I must say that I'm not immune. I initially sent cards out for grading so they'd be easier to sell someday. (Maybe a good decision, maybe not... )
Along the way I ended up with a couple that are either the highest graded, or really close. I was a bit surprised that it mattered to me once I was there.

[Exhibitman]

As long as there are people out there who will pay a multiple for each grade increment, we have the existing economic model. That's why this scandal won't have an impact broadly across the hobby but will have a deep impact : people who collect lesser condition cards, collect on a budget, etc., have no skin in this game.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

As long as there are people out there who will pay a multiple for each grade increment, we have the existing economic model. That's why this scandal won't have an impact broadly across the hobby but will have a deep impact : people who collect lesser condition cards, collect on a budget, etc., have no skin in this game.

I agree. I've often considered the exorbitant prices paid for numbers on a label to be a different hobby. A world outside of my collecting world.

[Mdmtx]

I actually believe the trimming/alterations could be a major factor in the price escalation. Suppose the trimmer is buying a psa 4 card that he is pretty confidant that he can make a psa 6, will he care what VCP says the value of the 4 is? I doubt it. It becomes a matter of his business model that he win that particular card. I will admit I haven’t looked to see how the prices paid for the pre-altered cards compared to the then market price of the card. My gut tells me they purchased for whatever it took within reason.

Mark

[drcy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If we reach the point that a baseball card can be restored with such skill that an alteration cannot be detected, then we should all agree that third party grading will become obsolete.

We can then accept that any baseball card that looks Mint is Mint. It won't matter if it was restored, because nobody will know the difference. Maybe this will be the future look of the hobby.

Maybe but I think there will be a substantial difference in pricing. Unlike natural difference in grade, I don't think in the future someone, even someone with lots of money, will pay an extra $500,000 because one card had a very slightly better alteration than another altered card. It's one thing to pay that difference for what is perceived to be natural if very slight difference, but another to pay that difference knowing that the difference is because someone was just slightly better at using a paper cutter.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

Restoration to paintings can be and is identifyed. The "you would not see it" is really saying "If you just looked at it when it's hanging on my wall, you wouldn't notice it."

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by drcy

Restoration to paintings can be and is identifyed. The "you would not see it" is really saying "If you just looked at it when it's hanging on my wall, you wouldn't notice it."

Gotcha.

Repairing a hole and making it look good sounds impressive to me.

Removing a stain and having the cardboard look the same seems to have happened many times successfully and that is all I am getting at. Perhaps they are not similar enough of examples. Just was trying to convey that significant repair has taken place to items such as this.