Getting back into vintage collecting after hiatus and have questions...

[jmhumr]

Howdy! I got into vintage card collecting over a decade ago, enjoyed this forum, bought some cards...but then got distracted by other things and took a break. My goal was always to collect a short bucket list of cards to frame and display and now I'd like to turn back to my list. To help me catch up, I have a couple questions:

1. How has pricing evolved since ~2010 and what direction is it currently trending? I'm primarily looking at popular HOFers from T206, CJ, Goudey, and the 50's Topps sets. Mid- to low grade. Not fishing for specific numbers, just curious about the atmospherics.

2. What did I miss regarding the grading companies? After browsing a few pages of the forum tonight, I was surprised at the negativity toward PSA, SCG, etc. I ask this question because I previously preferred SCG-graded cards because their black slabs look nice behind a mat and frame. I'm not a flipper or grade hunter, but I do appreciate the protection and extra sense of authenticity.

Thanks in advance!

[JollyElm]

1. Prices have gone up into the ionosphere.

2. The complaints about PSA generally revolve around them giving cards (purposefully?) lower grades than they deserve, and about how frickin' long it takes to get your cards back from them. It's ridiculous. On the other hand, SGC has been lightning quick, sending your cards back in like a week or two. So, if that's your preferred TPG, you'll be extremely happy with the turnaround time.

[mrreality68]

simple prices have gone up dramatically as mentioned before and alot of cards are not being moved around as much (people holding more for investments) so it is harder to collect certain sets like the 1914 CJ

[skelly423]

1. There was a massive price spike across the board in 2021. The modern market has come down a long way. The vintage market has come down a little, but prices remain much higher than they were before

2. PSA has (in my opinion) dramatically tightened their grading standards. I’ve seen many cards that I believe were 3s and 4s come back as 2s and 2.5s. I think SGC is strict, but not to the same extreme. There are a few other companies that have tried to enter the game, but I don’t think any have made significant inroads on the vintage side (CSG seems to be the strongest of the new graders).

Welcome back

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by jmhumr

1. How has pricing evolved since ~2010 and what direction is it currently trending? !

Think how surpised someone who last collected in 1970 would have found the prices for vintage cards when walking into a card store for the first time in about 1993 or so.

This is the sort of sticker shock you should be steadying yourself for.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by jmhumr

1. How has pricing evolved since ~2010 and what direction is it currently trending? I'm primarily looking at popular HOFers from T206, CJ, Goudey, and the 50's Topps sets. Mid- to low grade. Not fishing for specific numbers, just curious about the atmospherics.

2. What did I miss regarding the grading companies? After browsing a few pages of the forum tonight, I was surprised at the negativity toward PSA, SCG, etc. I ask this question because I previously preferred SCG-graded cards because their black slabs look nice behind a mat and frame. I'm not a flipper or grade hunter, but I do appreciate the protection and extra sense of authenticity.

1. Overall, pricing since 2010 has gone up significantly. In the past few years there seems to have been a huge spike resulting is a "bubble" a lot of people feel will deflate at some point. T206, CJs and Goudeys have risen in price a lot since 2010.

2. TPGs are assigning grades to altered (mostly trimmed) cards. It appears there's that there's really no recourse to poor subjectivity. SGC has new ownership which appears to have resulted in more "liberal" subjectivity (just my opinion). I used to like SGC over PSA because the holders were nice and I didn't care about "valuation" of cards in a specific TPG holder. Recently, I made a few purchases of cards in the new SGC holders and I can see (just my opinion - but I've been doing this for a while) that SGC is assigning numerical grades to altered cards. When you start researching more, you'll find out that PSA cards tend to sell for higher prices than SGC graded cards.

You're going to hear this saying from a lot of experienced collectors:

"Buy the card, not the holder".

As the saying goes, every thread should have a picture of a nice vintage card. Think about this - the very first card graded by PSA is the following, and if you know the background of this card then consider how grading started for sports cards:

PSA8 Wagner T206.jpg

[brunswickreeves]

1. Vintage cards took off like a rocket starting February 2021, right after the 1952 Topps Mick PSA 9 purchase for $5M+ and Hank Aaron's death, both in January 2021. There was a lot of buzz in and about the card collecting industry at that time. Covid had been around for 1 year by then, and people realized it wasn't going to be the end of times, so didn't need to hoard their cash. Ongoing lockdown put more cash in people's pockets from government stimulus and savings from commuting, leaving more for discretionary spending. The lockdown also put more time on people's hands, so had more opportunity to reconnect with the hobby. Pre-February you could eBay best offer sellers on any vintage HOFer for a 15-25% discount. Now, you really need to be the highest bidder in an auction or take a chance on an upgraded card. Some cards pre-Feb 2021 included: 52 Topps Mick in PSA 1 for $15K. 48 Leaf Ruth in SGC A for $500. 53 Topps Mick in PSA 1 for $750. 53 Topps Mays in PSA 2 for $450. 52 Topps Mays in PSA 1 for $450 and $1600 in PSA 2. 09 T206 Cobb Red in PSA A for $1500. 51 Bowman Mays in PSA 1 for $1500. Most of these cards and others have doubled, tripled or better since 2020. It's great to see these player's amazing cards get their due!

2. PSA is good for resale (it has the most submissions and was first to market so has solid name ID). SGC is good for personal collections and pre-war cards due to the black background for smaller cards in a plastic holder. Some collectors will disagree with this, that's ok because we're all drawn to cards and grading/not grading for valid reasons.

[jmhumr]

Thanks for the replies!

All the comments on pricing are pretty much what I feared, especially wrt potentially being on a bubble. I'm bullish on the prospect of a broader economic recession, so I guess I may have to monitor things a while. Already took a punch to the beans with our first house purchase last fall, haha.

Good to hear that there's nothing that should concern me regarding the grading companies. All I need is consistency across my collection for display purposes, so as long as there are no signs that SGC is about to flop I'll just stick with them.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by jmhumr

Thanks for the replies!

All the comments on pricing are pretty much what I feared, especially wrt potentially being on a bubble. I'm bullish on the prospect of a broader economic recession, so I guess I may have to monitor things a while. Already took a punch to the beans with our first house purchase last fall, haha.

Good to hear that there's nothing that should concern me regarding the grading companies. All I need is consistency across my collection for display purposes, so as long as there are no signs that SGC is about to flop I'll just stick with them.

For all their warts, like any TPG'er, I prefer SGC for my prewar collection. If I plan on reselling then the quality of the card always takes precedence regardless of the holder, except the stinkers like PRO if they still exist.

PSA still rules because of set registry and pop counts. IF SGC can get their act together on these key measurements then I think the price gap will shrink over time.

[toledo_mudhen]

Maybe Im looking in the wrong places but it appears to me that there isnt much difference in the price of low-mid grade T206's between PSA & SGC?

[Touch'EmAll]

Eye appeal (high end for the grade) is seemingly more important now than it ever was - centering, print blips, focus, color, tilt cut, crease location on lower technical grade cards. Also, as long as the eye appeal is nice, SGC has closed the gap with PSA prices.