LOL the graph says it all

[Peter_Spaeth]

A representative modern card, from the PSA website.

[G1911]

The important thing is that this is impossible to happen to a card made before 1980 for some reason. Empty your 401K’s and buy in. Everything is and always will be fine. It’s like free money.

[swarmee]

Well, even after the crash, it looks like that regularly $255 card still sells for $1250 or so. So the floor has been shifted quite a bit, even removing the bubble sales.

[Mike D.]

Yes, that's the story I'm seeing...a brief period of lock-down driven madness, but the return has been to a new, somewhat higher floor.

Considering it's not that long ago that we were going through a decade-long hand wringing about whether the hobby was dying, it's a very good sign.

[mrmopar]

I wouldn't discount the hobby dying thing coming back, especially at how quickly some of the new returnees are getting bored and dropping back out because everything has dropped from the pandemic levels they saw when they got back into it.

There seems to be those areas that remain strong, like vintage stars and rookie cards, but will there always be a market for everything else?

On a facebook group, I had posted about doing the right thing to package items in preparation of forces outside our control damaging the packages in route (sorting machines, careless mail carriers, etc) and this was all lost on the majority, but what they did want to focus on was the "insignificant" worth of the card I used in the example and who the guy was anyway. The subject card was a certified autograph card of Ben Oglivie. Who cares now and especially in the future for the Ben Oglivie's of the collecting world! If it isn't Mays or Ruth and the likes, the interest drops sharply.

What card are you showing, out of curiosity?

[Smarti5051]

I too wonder out about the future market for minor stars/borderline HOFers 15 years from now. In baseball, the rookie cards of Biggio, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and even Ken Griffey Jr. still have some interest in the $5-100 range. But, those cards were $1-5/ea back when they were active if you didn't pull them out of a 50 cent pack of cards.

By contrast, I see today players like Soto, Acuna, Vlad with 100s of different cards selling for $1000+ (if not, $10K or $100K) right out of the gate. Once they are done playing, how much of a market will there be to add $1K+ examples of borderline HOFers or minor stars? Do the millions of dollars in 4-digit rare cards of non-HOFers become $25 cards, or is there a continuing high end market for these rare cards of almost great players long after they are done playing?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrmopar

I wouldn't discount the hobby dying thing coming back, especially at how quickly some of the new returnees are getting bored and dropping back out because everything has dropped from the pandemic levels they saw when they got back into it.

There seems to be those areas that remain strong, like vintage stars and rookie cards, but will there always be a market for everything else?

On a facebook group, I had posted about doing the right thing to package items in preparation of forces outside our control damaging the packages in route (sorting machines, careless mail carriers, etc) and this was all lost on the majority, but what they did want to focus on was the "insignificant" worth of the card I used in the example and who the guy was anyway. The subject card was a certified autograph card of Ben Oglivie. Who cares now and especially in the future for the Ben Oglivie's of the collecting world! If it isn't Mays or Ruth and the likes, the interest drops sharply.

What card are you showing, out of curiosity?

Hi Curt, it's a PSA 10 01 Topps Chrome Traded Ichiro rookie.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by mrmopar

I wouldn't discount the hobby dying thing coming back, especially at how quickly some of the new returnees are getting bored and dropping back out because everything has dropped from the pandemic levels they saw when they got back into it.

Maybe need to push the "but everything is such a great deal compared to two years ago" narrative to keep them interested.

Although, I know a lot of long-time collectors are happy to see prices fall from their peaks, so they can buy more cards.

[mrmopar]

Would have hated to be the guy buying at or near the top of that peak!

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Hi Curt, it's a PSA 10 01 Topps Chrome Traded Ichiro rookie.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrmopar

Would have hated to be the guy buying at or near the top of that peak!

You wonder if even half of insane reported sales like that were real.

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

I too wonder out about the future market for minor stars/borderline HOFers 15 years from now. In baseball, the rookie cards of Biggio, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and even Ken Griffey Jr. still have some interest in the $5-100 range. But, those cards were $1-5/ea back when they were active if you didn't pull them out of a 50 cent pack of cards.

By contrast, I see today players like Soto, Acuna, Vlad with 100s of different cards selling for $1000+ (if not, $10K or $100K) right out of the gate. Once they are done playing, how much of a market will there be to add $1K+ examples of borderline HOFers or minor stars? Do the millions of dollars in 4-digit rare cards of non-HOFers become $25 cards, or is there a continuing high end market for these rare cards of almost great players long after they are done playing?

Only the top-tier HOF players (think Trout and a few others) will come anywhere near holding their value. Too many manufactured rarity cards out there. They will find their way into dealers' $1 and $5 boxes, even in slabs. As opposed to earlier cards ('70s and older), all the modern cards will be in pristine shape 20-30 years from now - no PSA 4 or 5s. All centered 50/50 and with original shine and four sharp corners.

Now get off my lawn, you meddling kids.