NonSports Forum

Net54baseball.com
Welcome to Net54baseball.com. These forums are devoted to both Pre- and Post- war baseball cards and vintage memorabilia, as well as other sports. There is a separate section for Buying, Selling and Trading - the B/S/T area!! If you give an opinion of a person or company your full name needs to be in your post. Contact the moderator at leon@net54baseball.com should you have any questions or concerns. Enjoy!
Net54baseball.com
Net54baseball.com
Shop Ebay Promotions
Vintage Memorabilia
Pre WWII-(Pre 1942) Baseball
Post WWII (1942-1980) Baseball
Modern (1980-present) Baseball

Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Postwar Sportscard Forums > Watercooler Talk- ALL sports talk

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:20 PM
Snapolit1's Avatar
Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is offline
Ste.ve Na.polit.ano
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,820
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
ERA is going to tell you everything in most cases. I don't see how you can call any closer great without an ERA under 3.00. That's why I don't understand the perception of Lee Smith being "dominant". His career ERA is over 3.00. John Franco sits at 2.89 and he threw just about the same amount of innings as Smith. I don't hear anyone calling for his induction though.
Well, Lee Smith did pitch in Wrigley and Fenway for a combined 10 years, so I guess you have to cut him a little slack for that.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-10-2019, 05:42 PM
packs packs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 5,127
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by frankbmd View Post
Granted modern closers usually start the ninth inning with the bases empty.

But remember that inherited runners do not impact the ERA of the "closer" or whoever is on the mound when the inherited runner scores. For this reason, relief pitchers who are not really that good can have deceptively lowered ERAs.

Lee Smith had the saves, but in the eighties he was not strictly a ninth inning closer. Evaluation of his ERA vs the modern "closer" is problematic in my opinion.
Franco's career nearly overlaps Smith's almost exactly and they pitched almost exactly the same amount of innings in the same role, but Franco's ERA is considerably lower at 2.89 vs 3.03 and Franco has a winning record compared to Smith's losing record. Almost no one considers Franco to be dominant though.

Last edited by packs; 01-10-2019 at 05:43 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-10-2019, 05:53 PM
Snapolit1's Avatar
Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is offline
Ste.ve Na.polit.ano
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,820
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
Franco's career nearly overlaps Smith's almost exactly and they pitched almost exactly the same amount of innings in the same role, but Franco's ERA is considerably lower at 2.89 vs 3.03 and Franco has a winning record compared to Smith's losing record. Almost no one considers Franco to be dominant though.
Maybe because Lee Smith is a huge man and looked the part of a dominant closer and Franco did not.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-11-2019, 12:20 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
Garth Guibord
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 476
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nat View Post
ERA+ together with innings pitched is probably good enough.

Whether to pay attention to WPA depends on what you want. If you want to know how skilled a pitcher is then WPA just introduces noise that you don't want. A pitcher who gives up a meatball with the bases empty is just as bad of a pitcher as one who gives up a meatball with the bases loaded. If you want to tell the story of a team, or a player, or a pennant race, then it's useful, because it'll tell you who swung the odds the most (even if there was a lot of randomness involved).

(ERA+ takes ERA, adjusts it for the park in which the player was pitching, and compares it to league average, which is automatically set at 100. Higher is better. The normalizations allow for cross-era comparisons.)
ERA+, in my opinion, would not be the best stat for reliever-to-reliever comparisons, since ERA+ would offer a baseline that includes all pitchers in the league.

I think what you describe as "noise" can be helpful for reliever-to-reliever comparisons, because the better relievers would be put into situations where there is higher leverage and by succeeding, accumulate more WPA. (WPA, in my opinion, wouldn't be very useful for starter-to-reliever comparisons)

Either way, ERA- would be better than ERA+, since the former describes the difference between the pitcher to the rest of his league, while the latter describes the difference between the rest of the league to the pitcher. Anyone who isn't SABR-minded, disregard, but here's the explanation: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...s-vs-era-minus

And I hope Jack Morris supporters don't read the bit about serving up meatballs with bases empty versus bases loaded, it might not sit well with the "pitch to the score" narrative about him... ;P
Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A save in a 20-1 game? You bet!!! PowderedH2O Watercooler Talk- ALL sports talk 5 04-10-2018 12:58 PM
OMG I'm collecting modern: my modern Houston Astros pickup thread Laxcat Modern Baseball Cards Forum (1980-Present) 34 04-18-2016 05:33 PM
Do you want to save $1.83? frankbmd Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 8 07-12-2015 08:11 PM
o/t amazing statistic Peter_Spaeth Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 18 08-03-2009 08:13 AM
OT: Please Help Save A-B Archive Net54baseball Sports (Primarily) Vintage Memorabilia Forum incl. Game Used 10 06-20-2008 09:29 AM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:50 AM.


ebay GSB