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  #1  
Old 05-09-2017, 11:10 AM
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Default Most overlooked active player?

Because the relative newness of Closers in the game I think Craig Kimbrel may be the most overlooked active players.

With talk about Trevor Hoffman going into the HOF soon after a 74% this last voting cycle and Mariano Rivera considered a sure thing it is interesting that possible future HOF Kimbrel gets little notice. I understand he only is in his 8th season, but his stats are impressive.

He already has 266 saves. He averages 42 saves per season. His SV:SVO is .911. His batting average against is .156 (not a single season over .185) with a 0.93 WHIP. Compare that to the the future "HOF".

Rivera
652 saves over 18 seasons (excluding first season when used as starter)
39 save 162 game avg
SV:SVO .891
BAA .211
WHIP 1.00

Hoffman
601 saves over 18 seasons
39 save 162 game avg
SV:SVO .888
BAA .211
WHIP 1.06

Even if Kimbrel's saves average goes down to match the 39 saves of Rivera and Hoffman and plays another 10 years he would still retire 4 years earlier than Rivera with more saves. Obviously, as is with any active player, anything can happen to derail the career, but as of now he may be better than the top 2 HOF candidates.

Last edited by bn2cardz; 05-11-2017 at 10:12 AM.
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  #2  
Old 05-09-2017, 11:37 AM
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I'll nominate Chase Utley. He was an excellent defender, with strong on-base skills, and more power than you expect from a second baseman. He doesn't really have a shot at the hall of fame, but that says more about the hall's election process than it does about Utley. They're good at recognizing players with a strong defining characteristic (think Ryan and strikeouts) but bad at recognizing players who are all-around contributors without some particular thing that really stands out.
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  #3  
Old 05-09-2017, 11:56 AM
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I'm going with Robinson Cano. Name another second baseman who has the offensive punch he does. Name another second baseman with the arm he has. I watched the guy play second every day for the Yankees for years. He is incredible out there.
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  #4  
Old 05-09-2017, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nat View Post
I'll nominate Chase Utley. He was an excellent defender, with strong on-base skills, and more power than you expect from a second baseman. He doesn't really have a shot at the hall of fame, but that says more about the hall's election process than it does about Utley. They're good at recognizing players with a strong defining characteristic (think Ryan and strikeouts) but bad at recognizing players who are all-around contributors without some particular thing that really stands out.
Good candidate. I think going against him, also, is playing at the same time as Cano. Utley has the better defensive numbers, but offense is weighted higher. I believe Utley is very comparable to Lou Whitaker, if Lou can't make it in then Utley won't either.
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  #5  
Old 05-09-2017, 12:18 PM
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Just wondering why you think Utley is a better defender than Cano? I've seen Cano make throws that no one else could make. He's got a third basemen's arm at second. He also has Gold Gloves whereas Utley does not.
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  #6  
Old 05-09-2017, 12:31 PM
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Just wondering why you think Utley is a better defender than Cano? I've seen Cano make throws that no one else could make. He's got a third basemen's arm at second. He also has Gold Gloves whereas Utley does not.
If you notice I said defensive numbers, but I admittedly was stating that exclusively off of dWAR. The more I look through the raw numbers, though, I do see that I am confused by Utley having the higher dWAR as in less seasons Cano has more assists, PO, and double plays turned. I am in an NL baseball area (St. Louis) and therefor admittedly have seen very little of Cano and can't speak to his play from experience.

I have heard more about Cano and still would stick by my thinking that Utley is in his shadow and will have the same fate as Lou Whitaker because of it.

Last edited by bn2cardz; 05-09-2017 at 12:32 PM.
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  #7  
Old 05-09-2017, 01:08 PM
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Defensive WAR is such a scam stat. Don Mattingly is listed as a below Replacement level fielder by that statistic.

According to that statistic, Jason Giambi fumbling the ball all over the infield has nearly the same value as Don Mattingly scooping 4 balls out of the dirt per game, starting double plays from the 1st base position and making it seem routine, and leading the league at his position in Range Factor and Fielding % for the better part of his career.

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  #8  
Old 05-09-2017, 02:47 PM
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I'm going with Paul goldschimdt he's all around great player but I guess being a diamond Back he gets no love. If he was a Yankee or redsox his card would be untouchable.
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  #9  
Old 05-09-2017, 03:44 PM
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Goldschmidt is a good one!

I'd like to also nominate Christian Yelich. Stanton gets all the attention in Miami but I'd take Yelich over him any day of the week.
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  #10  
Old 05-09-2017, 05:11 PM
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I still had guys arguing with me as late as 2015 that Adrian Beltre wasn't a Hall of Famer.
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  #11  
Old 05-09-2017, 10:26 PM
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Cano is going to breeze into the hall of fame. He's as good or better than Utley, but he's much much more appreciated. The Utley/Whitaker comparison is a good one. Similar players, who were similarly overlooked.

It's tempting to think that being a Diamondback is going to lead to Goldy being overlooked, but that record doesn't really show that. The man has made the all-star team every season except his rookie year. Yeah, at one point the same was true of Utley, but for Goldschmidt to rank up there on the overlooked board we'll have to see if he continues to attract attention over the long haul. (Utley didn't.)

dWAR has its problems, but Mattingly doesn't illustrate them. He's got negative scores because he was a first baseman, and it's really hard for a first baseman to have a positive dWAR. On baseball-reference look at the Rpos and the Rfield columns. Rpos is a positional adjustment - basically a penalty for playing an easy defensive position (like first base) or a bonus for playing a hard one (like shortstop). Rfield reflects the run values of the plays actually made, and Mattingly's Rfield is actually quite respectable for a first baseman. (And a LOT better than Jason Giambi's.)

Edited to add: Rpos and Rfield are components of dWAR.

Last edited by nat; 05-10-2017 at 10:07 AM.
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  #12  
Old 05-10-2017, 05:44 AM
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I never hear anyone talk about Adrian Beltre. But imo the guy is a Hofer.
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  #13  
Old 05-10-2017, 07:04 AM
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I think Yadier Molina belongs in the discussion too. He might be beloved in St. Louis but the rest of the baseball world doesn't take too much notice of him. I think he's a shoe in HOFer too, but I guess there's just nothing flashy about him. He hits the same every year and he plays the same defense. But that defense is what makes him special.
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  #14  
Old 05-10-2017, 09:57 AM
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Beltre is a good pick. He went from "Yeah, I guess he's okay" to "Wow, Adrian Beltre is a hall of famer" without anybody noticing.

Molina has a shot, but he's going to have to age very very well. Peoples' defensive reputation tends to last longer than their defense does. Molina used to be an extraordinary defensive player, but he's not anymore. And he's getting older. If he ages like Carlton Fisk, he's in. If not, not.
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  #15  
Old 05-10-2017, 02:10 PM
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I don't think he is HOF material, but Hunter Pence is a really good all around player. He doesn't walk a lot, but he does everything else. He hits for a little power, swipes a few bags, gets on base a little, plays well in the field... y'know, all the things that contribute to winning. But, he's also a REALLY good clubhouse guy. Players, coaches, and fans dig him. He brings a great attitude to the game and guys like him keep a team loose.
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  #16  
Old 05-10-2017, 04:17 PM
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Big fan of Beltre... I think he has a legit shot. Cano as well

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  #17  
Old 05-10-2017, 07:10 PM
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Lots of excellent choices.
I'm going with Nick Markakis, hits, average, doubles, great right fielder.
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  #18  
Old 05-10-2017, 08:29 PM
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My favorite thing about Pence is that he looks like he's composed entirely out of elbows. What he does works, but man does he look awkward doing it.
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  #19  
Old 05-11-2017, 07:12 AM
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Default Speaking of Hunter Pence:

This is a scouting report from some years past. Not sure if it is authentic or not, but it is a great read. Enjoy!

Chicago White Sox
Free Agent Player Prospect
Personal Information

SCOUTING REPORT

HUNTER PENCE

PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION:
Gangly. Runs like a rotary telephone thrown into a running clothes dryer. Throws like an effete Frenchman throwing a bookcase uphill. Swings a bat like his elbows are stapled to his knees and his underwear is pulled over his head. Stares at you when you’re not looking.

STRENGTH:
He…he actually does everything well. Ball jumps off bat. Good speed both from home to first and around the bases. Strong, accurarte arm. Should hit for both average and power.

WEAKNESS:
Overly aggressive at the plate. Gets into too many bad counts and susceptible to breaking balls away. Puts whispers into your head, inviting you to become one with his people before the coming encroachment, breaking down your will and autonomy by replacing your thoughts with a one word mantra of ‘JOIN, JOIN, JOIN’ until you break down, sobbing, a shell of yourself looking to become wholly reborn within his protection. Takes the occasional bad break on fly balls.

SUMMATION:
Please consider this my 30-day notice. I doubt my ability to do this job properly anymore. I doubt my ability to scout baseball players effectively. I doubt my ability to sleep when I close my eyes. I doubt. I doubt. Oh God, how I doubt.

QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ QQQQQQQQQQQQQ
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Last edited by clydepepper; 05-11-2017 at 07:13 AM.
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  #20  
Old 05-11-2017, 07:33 AM
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Here's the link to 'Four Lost Scouting Reports':

http://www.sbnation.com/2013/5/9/431...ce-derek-jeter
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  #21  
Old 05-12-2017, 03:39 AM
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Default Two more

I liked the view on Hunter Pence.
Disappointed that he didn't stay on as a Phillie, but glad he found success and a ring.

Two outfielders that I saw play a couple weeks ago are rather unknown to mainstream, but very talented....

AJ Pollock and Charlie Blackmon.

I watched the AZ-Colo series down in Phoenix...those two guys are excellent all around players. Great range in the outfield, strong arms, fleet and also tremendous hitters with extra base power.
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  #22  
Old 05-12-2017, 03:12 PM
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Khris Davis
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  #23  
Old 05-12-2017, 04:39 PM
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+1 Davis



One player I have always enjoyed is Seth Smith. He seems to do the little things well, and while he'll never be in HoF discussion, Smith has been solid in his MLB career.
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  #24  
Old 05-15-2017, 08:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
I still had guys arguing with me as late as 2015 that Adrian Beltre wasn't a Hall of Famer.


I'll still argue with you about that. Of course I know I'll lose after looking at his stats, but at no point while watching him play during his time in Seattle did I think to myself "this guy's a HOFer".
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Old 05-22-2017, 05:58 PM
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I'll still argue with you about that. Of course I know I'll lose after looking at his stats, but at no point while watching him play during his time in Seattle did I think to myself "this guy's a HOFer".
That's because he wasn't in Seattle, though he was really, really good. He's put together a monster career since leaving though. 4 30-hr seasons while hitting for a high average, all while still playing his all-time elite-level defense at 3B, since leaving.

445 homers if he never plays another day plus elite defense at 3B. He's not just a HOF'er, he's a no-brainer HOF'er.

Last edited by Tabe; 05-22-2017 at 05:59 PM.
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  #26  
Old 05-22-2017, 06:02 PM
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Khris Davis
Quietest 40-homer guy ever? Guess hitting .240 will do that for you
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  #27  
Old 05-22-2017, 06:45 PM
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Big Jake Lamb fan

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  #28  
Old 05-27-2017, 09:48 AM
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Default Blackmon

Maybe people are hearing about Charlie Blackmon now?
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  #29  
Old 05-30-2017, 09:43 PM
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Nolan Arenado, shared Home Run title, 3 straight Gold Glove Awards. I still hear people say, (Who Is He). Put him on a big market team, everyone would know him.
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  #30  
Old 05-31-2017, 04:19 AM
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Blackmon and Arenado are both outstanding but, fair or not, Rockies hitters will seldom get much recognition because of the park they play in.
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  #31  
Old 05-31-2017, 05:06 AM
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Quote:
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Big Jake Lamb fan

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Agree, i draft him every year on my fantasy team
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  #32  
Old 05-31-2017, 07:44 AM
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Quote:
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Maybe people are hearing about Charlie Blackmon now?
Crazy overrated, and frankly a little suspicious, guys don't usually hit their peak at 29-30 years old. Forget that for a moment though, until he tests hot let's just assume he is a very late bloomer.

He is hitting .270 on the road with zero HR's this year, tell me again Coors Field isn't ludicrous. If you think that's too small a sample size for his career he's a .339 hitter at home and a .262 hitter on the road. OBP .393 vs .304, Slugging .528 vs .423. Do I want him on my fantasy team? Sure do, even more so if I can platoon him. Do I want him on my favorite team? Hell no.

Arenado's 2017 splits are actually pretty equal, but when you look at the career numbers he too comes crashing back to earth. Avg .306/.264 OBP .354/.311 and SLG .578/.468 So he's still a decent player away from Coors, but nowhere near the stud he is when he's home.

Until they figure out a way to normalize Coors (they claim to have done so a few times over the years, the evidence doesn't back them up) it's going to be hard to take any Rockies stats seriously.
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  #33  
Old 05-31-2017, 08:06 AM
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Corey Dickerson was able to make the transition. He's having a pretty ridiculous year so far for Tampa Bay after leaving Coors.
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  #34  
Old 05-31-2017, 09:15 PM
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Default Ballpark advantages

Many great players have had favorable home park advantages since the beginning of the live ball era.

That's not to say a player is good/bad or indifferent, it's what he's faced with.

The Rockies players certainly have to deal with the perception that their home park somehow diminishes their accomplishments.
Seems they get penalized for their home park, but good hitting parks have always existed.
Polo Grounds, Right field in Yankee stadium, Fenway short distance fences, Baker Bowl, old Tiger Stadium, Houston's Minute Maid , Arizona's Chase field and dozens more both modern and vintage...

Sometimes it works in reverse, Dodgers parks ( for just one example ) sure tend to make LA pitchers look better...yet that advantage seems to not be important to compare historical or statistical discussion. Are all the Dodgers award winning pitchers exactly the same on the road?

I think it is what it is...if all you have to do to get great stats is to play for the Rockies everyone should be doing it.

Back to Blackmon.
He can run, hit,throw and field. Precious few players do that anymore. The 3 game series I watched recently was in Phoenix and he didn't hit a home run. He was clearly the most complete player on the field. Pollock was a close second. I don't know what other ballpark these teams should have been playing in , but even though they are both hitters parks, I didn't dismiss their talents. In game three, the score was 0-0 after 12 innings, Blackmon finished 0-6 and I still saw him as the best player.

Full disclosure, I don't have Charlie on my fantasy team, I am not a Rockies fan either.
I live for the deplorable Phillies.
I have been an avid baseball fan since I was a 8 yr old in 1970. I have read a hundred Baseball books about older players. I don't think less of Mel Ott or even Sandy Koufax for accomplishing what they did in their era or their ballpark. It just " is what it is " for me!
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  #35  
Old 06-01-2017, 07:22 AM
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Carlos Martinez is always drafed after the 'Aces' in NL only 5 x 5 fantasy leagues. He continues to get better. After Scherzer, Kershaw, Baumgarner, to me there was no safer option on results/injury risk. Yet hes usually considered after 10 or so NL pitchers when to me hes top 5 in NL. Top 5 versus Top 10 is probably 100 million dollars difference in salary..
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  #36  
Old 06-01-2017, 07:56 AM
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The other guys on your list are strike out machines though. Martinez averaged less than a K per inning last year.

Last edited by packs; 06-01-2017 at 07:56 AM.
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  #37  
Old 06-01-2017, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
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Corey Dickerson was able to make the transition. He's having a pretty ridiculous year so far for Tampa Bay after leaving Coors.
So you're going to ignore the full season in which he hit .245 in favor of the less than 1/3 of a season where he's tearing it up? Call me at the end of the season, at least, maybe after the end of two good seasons in a row before I'm a believer.


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Of course there's a noticeable home advantage in many parks, and lots of players perform better at home, but Coors is a different beast entirely. It's not just the power numbers either. How many .280 hitters became batting champs at Coors? They moved the outfield walls out due to the thin air, so there is a ton more room for balls to drop in for hits. Historically nothing like the consistent disparate home/away splits exist in any park to the ridiculous degree they are present at Coors.
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Old 06-01-2017, 09:50 AM
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He hit 24 homers last year, the same number he hit while with the Rockies. I don't know what you mean by that.

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Old 06-01-2017, 10:19 AM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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The other guys on your list are strike out machines though. Martinez averaged less than a K per inning last year.
Hence he is overlooked, plus if there isnt an innings capped, you are rewarded with Ks if a player is healthy all year...number of ks is what matter...not k's per inning. He has more K's than Kershaw right now this year and 6th in NL in K's....only getting better as well, 2 years ago he did have 184k in 179 innings..

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Old 06-01-2017, 11:48 AM
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He hit 24 homers last year, the same number he hit while with the Rockies. I don't know what you mean by that.
He hit 24 home runs, sure, while batting about 60 points lower than his Coors norm with a slugging also about 60-70 points lower. If you're happy with 24 home runs and an OPS of .761 there are a LOT of guys who can provide that, especially in the outfield. If you want 24 home runs and an OPS of .900+ like he had with the Rockies, that's a lot harder to find.
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Old 06-01-2017, 11:55 AM
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He's posting the highest OPS of his career right now and leads the league in runs, hits, and total bases. What more does he have to do to show he can hit outside of Coors?

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Old 06-01-2017, 04:31 PM
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He's posting the highest OPS of his career right now and leads the league in runs, hits, and total bases. What more does he have to do to show he can hit outside of Coors?
LOL really? How many guys every year have a killer 1/3 of a season???

Ervin Santana is on pace to win 21 games with a 9.3 WAR and 6 shutouts.

Justin Turner is going to hit .379, but with only 3 home runs

Joey Gallo is going to hit 48 homeruns in his first full season in the majors

Ryan Zimmerman is going to hit 80 points above his career average...

See where I'm going with this?

Like I said call me when he strings two 800+ OPS seasons back to back, let alone the .900 he averaged with the Rockies. Sample size is everything.
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Old 06-01-2017, 05:01 PM
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I think I've represented my opinion pretty well by pointing out he matched his career high in home runs last year and is playing very well this year while away from Coors.

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Old 06-01-2017, 06:04 PM
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I think I've represented my opinion pretty well by pointing out he matched his career high in home runs last year and is playing very well this year while away from Coors.
At the end of the season one of us is going to have fun telling the other "I told you so."
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Old 06-01-2017, 08:13 PM
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I don't think he is HOF material, but Hunter Pence is a really good all around player. He doesn't walk a lot, but he does everything else. He hits for a little power, swipes a few bags, gets on base a little, plays well in the field... y'know, all the things that contribute to winning. But, he's also a REALLY good clubhouse guy. Players, coaches, and fans dig him. He brings a great attitude to the game and guys like him keep a team loose.
As a Giants fan, I have (had?) an appreciation of Hunter before he became a permanent fixture on the DL. Now, I wish someone would take him off "our" hands at the trade deadline.

Molina is an excellent player but pretty much hated by all, except Cardinals fans. Maybe it's the neck tattoos?
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Old 06-01-2017, 08:28 PM
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I know he isn't the same player he used to be.. but for a guy on the doorstep of 600 Homers, closing in on 3000 hits and a career batting average over .300 Albert Pujols sure doesn't get much attention.
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Old 06-01-2017, 10:44 PM
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mike trout is the most overlooked active player. somehow he's still getting better.
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Old 08-14-2017, 11:22 AM
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Corey Dickerson was able to make the transition. He's having a pretty ridiculous year so far for Tampa Bay after leaving Coors.
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So you're going to ignore the full season in which he hit .245 in favor of the less than 1/3 of a season where he's tearing it up? Call me at the end of the season, at least, maybe after the end of two good seasons in a row before I'm a believer.


__________________________________________________ _____

Of course there's a noticeable home advantage in many parks, and lots of players perform better at home, but Coors is a different beast entirely. It's not just the power numbers either. How many .280 hitters became batting champs at Coors? They moved the outfield walls out due to the thin air, so there is a ton more room for balls to drop in for hits. Historically nothing like the consistent disparate home/away splits exist in any park to the ridiculous degree they are present at Coors.
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He hit 24 homers last year, the same number he hit while with the Rockies. I don't know what you mean by that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
He hit 24 home runs, sure, while batting about 60 points lower than his Coors norm with a slugging also about 60-70 points lower. If you're happy with 24 home runs and an OPS of .761 there are a LOT of guys who can provide that, especially in the outfield. If you want 24 home runs and an OPS of .900+ like he had with the Rockies, that's a lot harder to find.
Quote:
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He's posting the highest OPS of his career right now and leads the league in runs, hits, and total bases. What more does he have to do to show he can hit outside of Coors?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
LOL really? How many guys every year have a killer 1/3 of a season???

Ervin Santana is on pace to win 21 games with a 9.3 WAR and 6 shutouts.

Justin Turner is going to hit .379, but with only 3 home runs

Joey Gallo is going to hit 48 homeruns in his first full season in the majors

Ryan Zimmerman is going to hit 80 points above his career average...

See where I'm going with this?

Like I said call me when he strings two 800+ OPS seasons back to back, let alone the .900 he averaged with the Rockies. Sample size is everything.
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I think I've represented my opinion pretty well by pointing out he matched his career high in home runs last year and is playing very well this year while away from Coors.
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Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
At the end of the season one of us is going to have fun telling the other "I told you so."
Decided not to wait until the end of the season. I told you so.

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March .330 .379 .636 1.015
May 28 .349 .388 .587 .975
June 25 .294 .336 .490 .827
July 24 .220 .273 .429 .701
August .170 .204 .234 .438
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Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 08-14-2017 at 11:28 AM.
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Old 08-14-2017, 11:47 AM
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Told me what? Even with his recent slump he's on track to set career highs in home runs, RBI's, hits, total bases and runs and made his first all star team.

So he sets career highs in 5 offensive categories but your position is that he can't hit outside of Coors Field?

Last edited by packs; 08-14-2017 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 08-14-2017, 11:51 AM
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Sorry you don't understand that he's been awful since the all-star game and his percentage stats are trending downward rapidly. He is a league average OF at best. Who cares if he hits a career best in HR's if his slugging is mediocre? Who cares about hits if his OBP is mediocre? Apparently you do, but he's just not a great player, he really isn't even a particularly good one.
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Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 08-14-2017 at 11:51 AM.
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