How do you see the market 10yrs from now

[kailes2872]

I am hoping that there is a big swoon 10 years from now. The kids will be almost out of college, the house will be paid for, and I will have some additional disposable income.

My hope is that many of my friends on the board will be looking to liquidate and sell those cards for pennies on the dollar - since the baby boomers are disappearing and forgetting about Mickey Mantle and there are no 30 year old millenials who know who Ty Cobb is!


Of course, the reality will be that every card that I will be looking for then will be experiencing all-time highs and every card that I own will be experiencing a market dip. I don't have any plans of ever selling and made the boys promise to hold onto them when I am gone, so the buy price is more important to me than the sell price!

[glynparson]

everyone you listed will be worth more than today.

[Johnny630]

If I was into this hobby only for long term growth on my investments this is how I would see things over the next few years. With interest rates rising It is my opinion that the ultra rich big money players will be putting their money back into treasuries and away from high end 8/9 post war cards. I'm not chasing any cards right now unlesss it happens to be a Mantle.

[Exhibitman]

To the extent that the wealthy are into cards it isn't to beat interest rates, it is as a fun alternate asset play. Something to enjoy like art. Rich people don't sell the family Picasso for pocket money. What is most likely in a downturn is the same thing as has happened in every downturn. Marquee cards stagnate or fall moderately and meat and potatoes basics fall pretty hard because the guys who buy vg Topps cards for their sets are the ones who take it on the chin in a downturn. One thing I do expect in the next downturn is a significant drop in the mainstream cards that have been run up so much in the last year or two. The stuff with a regular heavy supply on eBay and auctions. The PSA 7-8 and even some 9s for guys who aren't Aaron Ruth Mantle etc.

[Neal]

What will the collector base look like in 10 years? Will it largely be the current crop today, or will there be an influx? Todays 10-12 year old will be getting out of college, and todays 21 year old may never have been a collector to the extent that we once were.

The hobby has been an adult game for many, many years now.

In my opinion, the demand for many rare, obscure prewar cards is going to be mediocre at best.

[ZiggerZagger]

Agree with a lot of what's been said. In the big picture, it's clear that we've already enjoyed the major bump in interest and maturation of the hobby associated with TPG. I believe Coin collecting enjoyed much the same in the earlier 2000's.

It's also pretty clear that we're now on the back end of the accelerated interest in higher-end Post-War cards. Prices have been dropping to a level just a bit higher than before the run-up. There was clearly some undervaluation in that market, but what happened was unsustainable. POP's are not truly limited for most Post-War 8's and above when compared with Pre-War, and whenever middle class investors become well and truly priced out of a market it just can't be a good thing.
The collectors who are in it "for life" (like most of us) have the advantage here. We're happy to sit on the sidelines waiting for any fever to die down, and for speculators to pull up stakes and cash out of the hobby -- We'll buy at a lower prices when they do.

I've been wondering if this small boom was the perfect storm of a very good Economy along with the Boomers reaching the peak of their financial powers? Sprinkle in some Speculators, some feelings of Nostalgia, and you get some mad prices.

So my best guess given all this is Short Term continued weakening of prices on the Post-War cards involved in the run-up (RC's of Rose, Clemente, Koufax, etc.). That should also include the 5's, 6's and 7's that got inflated in the run-up as well.
Medium to Long term, continued gradual appreciation across a wide range of key Post-War cards with intrinsic appeal to collectors. Pre-War to do it's thing, puttering along with solid performance -- maybe some room for faster appreciation with certain players.
Maybe '70's Baseball and Hockey/FB/BB to get some love, too.

I would be amazed to see another run on prices in the next 5-10 years like we saw in the past 2 years.

[Jdoggs]

Ruth and Mantle safest investments. Post war rookies such as Aaron, Koufax, Clemente more risky as their PSA 8 rookies have already decreased by half in value compared to their highs last summer.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by kailes2872

Of course, the reality will be that every card that I will be looking for then will be experiencing all-time highs and every card that I own will be experiencing a market dip.

That's how I buy and sell securities...

[Touch'EmAll]

As a tax guy, I see a lot of different investment transactions - Government bonds, basic interest accounts at the bank, speculative stocks, blue chip stocks, high dividend yielding mutual funds, single family rentals, small businesses, etc.

Cards are investments, not mainline, but they are investments. Tough to imagine that anybody thinks, gee, I am buying cards, but have no hopes of them ever increasing in value.

Be smart and don't build your entire portfolio around them. However, if done right, they can be investments that DO yield a positive rate of return. I have accumulated pre-war cards of major HOF'ers mostly in PSA 5 and 6 grades: T206's of Cobb, Matty, Walter Johnson and Cy Young. 1920's Exhibits of Ruth and Gehrig. A Satchell Paige here, a Jimmie Foxx there, A very nice PSA 8 run of Hank Aaron's, and similar type stuff.

The long term result (10 year hold plus) has seen some nice price appreciation. I am glad I have them built into my portfolio as investments. Just my 2 cents.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Cards are investments, not mainline, but they are investments. Tough to imagine that anybody thinks, gee, I am buying cards, but have no hopes of them ever increasing in value.

The long term result (10 year hold plus) has seen some nice price appreciation. I am glad I have them built into my portfolio as investments. Just my 2 cents.

I have been doing this (for the most part) 30+ years.

Appreciation is only guaranteed in my eyes, not in value.

I went through many phases of my collection crashing after booms like we have seen in the past few years, ask the 90s guys. If I don't lean on a hope that demand outpaces supply and just enjoy myself I will not be disappointed.

If your window is only the last 10 years, then yes you have been in a phase of appreciation. How long the PSA love lasts with outside investors depends on a reputation with a constantly eroding base.

Just enjoy the collection and if something good happens value wise, enjoy that too.

[Timbegs]

I have often wondered what will happen in 10-20 years when most of the people who could have pulled these cards from packs and their peers have passed. I think many adults who collect - of all ages - are reliving their youth, chasing cards they had or coveted as a child (guilty!). Granted, I am 37 and have never collected cards that were from my lifetime. When me and my friends went to the card shop, they bought packs of NBA Hoops while I saved up and bought a Willie, Mickey or Duke. My favorite cards have always been mid to low grade from that era 1951-1969. With little exception.

I have never been able to draw a conclusion. Up, down, stays about the same? Hard to say - and much like the stock market, there are both predictable and unpredictable factors and we're really just guessing...