Money in the hobby

[rainier2004]

While sitting there Sunday night watching REA, it was just crazy watching the amount of money that was being spent left and right. I know that is relative, but prices on sooo many cards have just soared. How many $100,000 cards now exist? How many collections exceed $250,000 now? Billions of dollars in the "industry" as its coined on another thread.

So my question/point is this...

If money = fraudsters, and I would say this is true in all walks of life, isn't it just a matter of time before this whole thing collapses when the cockroaches are exposed? I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?

We also seem to have a different vibe to the "hobby" now than years ago. I hear the term investment so much now and it seemed like that word use to be taboo. So much new money in the vintage card game...

It seems to me like its a perfect storm with all this. So much money seems like the potential for fraud would escalate tremendously. It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards. I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

I know, collect what you like and don't spend more than you have, blah, blah blah. Its not about that, I don't need my cards to be able to retire or anything. But the whole thing makes me somewhat uncomfortable and I started collecting in 1985.

[bbcard1]

I don't know about the term "investment" being used more. Honestly the whole overprinting thing was created by speculators. I remember "investing" in a lot of 800 Tommy Gregg rookies in 1988 and tons of others. I was fortunate to have also been picking up vintage. I don't think the bubble will burst on the cards most folks are investing in like they did on the cards of the 80s and 90s because the supply really isn't there. Of course virtually everyone isn't collecting any more.

I think there are some cards that sell for big dollars that have thin markets...I remember someone saying years ago that the market for cards from the late 1800s was very profitable but only a few people were playing. It may be more so now.

[T206Collector]

Third party authenticating is a fluid concept. You now see people talking about old vs. new PSA slabs, REA had multiple autograph authenticators, with Steve Grad now at Beckett, and James Spence on his own, and SGC it's own brand. I don't know off the top of my head who is at PSA/DNA anymore. To think in 10 years that all of this will be status quo is obviously not a bet anyone would make. So if you are "investing" in a baseball card with the expectation of that status quo, you should just be eyes wide open about this stuff:

Your goods are only as valuable as the market credibility of the authenticator at the time of sale.

I do think this is one reason why REA double-certified a lot of its autographs. Take this signed T206 Marquard, which was encapsulated as authentic by SGC.

http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/...e?itemid=44742

Note how they didn't just rely on SGC's word. They also provided an Auction LOA from James Spence/JSA, and pre-certification by Steve Grad and Brian Sobrero/Beckett Authentication.
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[GasHouseGang]

I was thinking the same thing Todd. Everyone was "investing" in the 1980's. It was kind of like the housing bubble, everyone thought things would just keep going up forever. The card market seems to ebb and flow over the years, and some cards are up while others are down, so it makes it a very difficult market to invest in unless you really know what you are doing.

[rainier2004]

Alright, I see the 80s thing. Buying 500 Bo Jackson rookies, yeah, I could have worded that differently. So my post would be in strict regards to pre war cards.

[58pinson]

I am not financially equipped to chase pricey vintage cards but also shake my head at some of the prices these auctions realize. Then again when I tool up and down the Garden State Parkway in my Ford and get passed by literally hundreds of automobiles priced at $100k or so I say different people like to do different things with their cash - so be it.

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by 58pinson

I am not financially equipped to chase pricey vintage cards but also shake my head at some of the prices these auctions realize. Then again when I tool up and down the Garden State Parkway in my Ford and get passed by literally hundreds of automobiles priced at $100k or so I say different people like to do different things with their cash - so be it.

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

What happens when they counterfeit money as well. The one thing going on cards from 100+ years ago is the paper stock i assume will be tough but I am not a professional so who knows..

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

What happens when they counterfeit money as well. The one thing going on cards from 100+ years ago is the paper stock i assume will be tough but I am not a professional so who knows..

That's what I thought too, but it is far from the truth. Restorers can take fibers, analyze them and get the identical compounds that were originally used in the card stock and just make "new" stock and do whatever they want to with it. Micro-weave of these "parts" are also possible so creating a new card would seem kinda easy...

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by 58pinson

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

I believe that the technology is already available and has probably been used already. You have guys that can rebuild cards and make it seamless. Guys that can doctor colors and have them be flawless also. So what is stopping them from creating one? Could easily do a common in high grade since the big guys would be scrutinized.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by 58pinson

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

I addressed that concern in a SABR post:

My guess is a lot of entombed high grade cards have been altered, or 'prepped,' but that's a different issue.

[58pinson]

Originally Posted by drcy

I addressed that concern in a SABR post:

My guess is a lot of entombed high grade cards have been altered, or 'prepped,' but that's a different issue.

Hopefully my first use of the quote function is correct.

I linked into your SABR article. Fascinating and obviously very informed. Light years ahead of my own level of expertise. I have no quibble with any of the points you made. I was, however, drawn to your use of the non-linear concept in your opening. That is where my concern lies in the future regarding counterfeiting, in this case specifically sports cards, but in other areas as well.

While I don't refer to the current technological advances as exponential they are not linear. I don't think it's an unrealistic stretch to visualize a time in the near future when the WTF moment hits and the cat is out of the bag as far as the sudden ineffectiveness of traditional counter fraud measures.

Pleasure to read your article.

[jlehma13]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?

Whenever I see one of these crisp cards graded an authentic, I can't help but think how it was trimmed to deceive and how many others like it made it past the graders. Beaters are the best.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

While sitting there Sunday night watching REA, it was just crazy watching the amount of money that was being spent left and right. I know that is relative, but prices on sooo many cards have just soared. How many $100,000 cards now exist? How many collections exceed $250,000 now? Billions of dollars in the "industry" as its coined on another thread.

So my question/point is this...

If money = fraudsters, and I would say this is true in all walks of life, isn't it just a matter of time before this whole thing collapses when the cockroaches are exposed? I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?

We also seem to have a different vibe to the "hobby" now than years ago. I hear the term investment so much now and it seemed like that word use to be taboo. So much new money in the vintage card game...

It seems to me like its a perfect storm with all this. So much money seems like the potential for fraud would escalate tremendously. It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards. I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

I know, collect what you like and don't spend more than you have, blah, blah blah. Its not about that, I don't need my cards to be able to retire or anything. But the whole thing makes me somewhat uncomfortable and I started collecting in 1985.

The only answer I have to this is yes.

The term "investment" to me is still taboo and a house of cards...but that's my opinion. I would like big dollar cards, but even if I felt that was budgetary I would stay away in this market. It reminds me too much of when I steadfastly refused to buy a home in 2004. Eventually there is no room for growth as the demand is outpaced by cost and the buyers are shut out.

I think a select group are grabbing the big cards now anticipating further growth but this is in my belief a very finite crowd. If those (on the high estimate for me) 20 or 30 big buyers stop trying to swap or horde among themselves what happens to the growth?

[ecRich]

I think "outside" money is pushing the prices to influence rising prices. A few million bucks spread here and there is nothing. Probably like shooting fish in a barrel, where many of us (not me) view the last record price as actual value. Bottom line is we are adults paying big money for cardboard produced for children. It use to be you were embarrassed to tell adult friends you collected baseball cards. Now we can say we invest in cards which makes us feel grown up.
I collect and still have fun doing it. Sooner or later most collectors will be gone leaving "money" guys passing cards back and forth.

[Republicaninmass]

Or the signed beckett 40 PB wagner which JSA wouldn't pass

[sbfinley]

This is a pure guess from my experience the high priced vintage market (say items that sell for $25k+) have a handful of different buyers chasing them.

*Those with the means to accumulate anything they want at any price.
*Those that overextend themselves financially for their hobby.
*Those that move from one item to another, buying and selling as a break even throughout the years.
*Those that bought in so early 30-40 years ago they can now move their items to mold their collection in what ever shape they want.
*Those that accumulate then minimize. Building quantity and moving for quality in a repeated process.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards.

Not true at all. I remember if you went on any online forum 15 years ago, you'd find all kinds of crazy threads discussing grading companies, auction houses, their employees, etc.

Originally Posted by rainier2004

I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

Corrupt is a very broad term, so you're going to have to be a little more specific here. How would PSA found to be corrupt?

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Not true at all. I remember if you went on any online forum 15 years ago, you'd find all kinds of crazy threads discussing grading companies, auction houses, their employees, etc.

Yeah but I feel there is more now than there was then. There also seems to be information now then there was 15 years ago. There were less auctions houses, eBay was king with no major sellers like Probstein or PWCC and Mastro and Allen were, well, what they have been proven to be.

Corrupt is a very broad term, so you're going to have to be a little more specific here. How would PSA found to be corrupt?

Corrupt - To act dishonestly to benefit yourself or others either monetarily or by some other compensation. That is my definition, not sure how that compares to Websters. I'm not saying PSA is corrupt, but what if they were? Are the prices for the cards or the flips? The cards have been around for a long time and always posed barrier of entry to the hobby d/t experience and overall knowledge. TRUST in PSA, as the major grader ion the hobby, eliminates those issues knowing their purchase is protected by that flip. SO what if it was found that PSA had a couple card doctors in their back pocket that also worked worth a major seller or 2? What if it was proven they started doing this in 1994...that would be a lot of cards and flips. I'm am NOT saying any of this is true in any remote fashion, but what if it was proven to be. What would happen to the hobby? Values? Total collectors? I think you would see a dramatic shift.

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Not true at all. I remember if you went on any online forum 15 years ago, you'd find all kinds of crazy threads discussing grading companies, auction houses, their employees, etc.

Yeah but I feel there is more now than there was then. There also seems to be information now then there was 15 years ago. There were less auctions houses, eBay was king with no major sellers like Probstein or PWCC and Mastro and Allen were, well, what they have been proven to be.