Que Sera Sera
 

Whilst the future is not ours to see, the hobby's history tells us
that prices for the rarer issues are in large part determined by the
number of "whales" who compete in a given auction.

Apparently, the big whales from the early years of this decade, with a few
notable exceptions. have been beached Some just quit collecting, some found themselves in a difficult divorces and one or two found their way to that great stadium in the sky.

Logic states that extraordinary prices for PSA 8.5. 9 and 10 cards is subject to a great deal of risk. How many 52 Mantles can command a 6 figure price?

I think there will be some serious investigations into the grading firms, and the results will impact prices.

I also wonder what will happen to the 19th century cards as the baby boomers turn 70 and retire.

At the end of the day, while everyone of us cares deeply about the value of our respective collections, the real value emanates from the pleasure we receive from collecting.

I once authored a paper, "When It Was Hobby' . It is my sincere hope that the hobby lives on. Hopefully, we will be able to attract sophisticated collectors, promote the joy collecting and remember the wisdom of Bill Mastro who told me back in 1977- remember it is only Old Cardboard.

Happy Collecting to all

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

Bruce made many good points, and the one that I've been thinking will have a big effect is the aging of the baby boomers. There will always be younger collectors coming in and taking their place, but they may not collect in the same way, or with the same fervor, as the generation of collectors who came of age in the late 1970's-early 1980's, and set the engine in motion for the hobby explosion that followed. Today, it's more like business as usual. Plenty of collectors, lots of buying and selling, but certainly not the meteoric growth that their predecessors experienced.

I'm a younger collector (27) I have maybe seen one other person my age looking at the cards I do at a show. I don't think there is a lot of interest from my generation and even if there is an influx of new collectors, they will most likely be after new cards. Which is great for me.

c
 

Add me to the list of "young" collectors (32) interested in old cardboard and autographs.

26 here....

We will be able to buy all the E107s we want at T206 prices in just 30 years.

Packs, I disagree. It's natural for a collector, with any collecting habit, to desire something rare. It happens in every genre of collecting, from Car collecting to beanie babies. I don't think you will ever be able to buy an e107 for a t206 price.

I also don't believe the baby boomers make such a big difference (other then with the post war cards they grew up with)

The population is still growing and there is a finite amount of prewar available. Baseball is still popular, and it's still human nature to want to collect stuff.

I'm mostly kidding but I do think there is some truth to what I said. Consider why baby boomers collect cards. It's a connection to their childhood. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a baby boomer who collects vintage now that didn't buy packs when they were a kid.

Kids aren't buying packs anymore. When was the last time you saw a box of Topps at the gas station, or the grocery store? Even if kids are collecting, think about whats being pushed at them. Autographed cards, limited edition cards, game used cards etc. The Allen Ginter and sets like it are popular but they're popular amongst the older crowd. What child is going to chase the Napolean piece of hair card?

I have always been interested in pre-war cards because I'm naturally interested in history. However, I am the only person my age I know with a collection and I'm no shut in. I don't see the numbers amongst my generation that could possibly replace the baby boomers. Less collectors, more supply equal less demand and lower prices.

It's good and bad. It's good in the sense that people will collect because they want to collect, not because the cards are worth money. It's bad because collecting circles get smaller and smaller. But hey, every card we pay a lot of money for now was once virually worthless. And people still saved them. That's what I love about the hobby.

I understand most of your argument however I'm not buying into the baby boomers thing. Most people with enough disposable income to buy high end cards are little bit older than you or I, but I don't think it falls into a category of generation, other then post-war collecting nostalgia.

19th century, for example, can't possibly carry some connection to any current collectors childhood yet prices are very strong. Since coming to this board, I've learned that some collectors don't even like modern baseball. :confused:

So it seems being a fan of baseball isn't even a prerequisite to collecting baseball cards.

The people you describe, being buried in debt in the future, already exist. Yet you still can't get an E107 for a T206 price. There'll always be one guy with more money than the next guy, and he will be the one who has the better cards. No big deal.

I think the link to 19th century and pre-war for the baby boomers comes from collecting their childhood cards. I was trying to say a lot of people my age didn't have childhood cards. And kids born now will probably have an even more narrow window into collecting 10 years from now when they get to the age I was when I started buying packs.