Edgar Martinez got in after his 10th year and final year of eligibility -- and his career WAR was nearly 25% higher than that of Big Papi.

Papi had 541 home runs though, so I guess that helped him (and may help Stanton). But I think the 3 rings for Boston is what put him in on the first ballot -- the whiff of roids notwithstanding.

HOF caliber pitcher...his body of work is ruined by injury, though.

Once (if) he breaks 2000+ IP it might be worth revisiting.

Same for deGrom?

I think Soto is a lock for the Hall. His Black Ink is approaching Hall of Fame Standards already, and he's already nearly at 44 WAR. Even factoring in for some sort of monumental decline after 32, I think he ultimately makes it in. Will most likely have 60 WAR by then (barring injury)

Snell appears to me to have had two monster seasons but nothing else to write home about?

This would be my list

1995 Beltran (lock - 70% on 3rd ballot is future Hofer)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (likely - strong support from voters)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (lock)
2002 Votto (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (lock - will be 1st ballot)
2010 Stanton (maybe)
2010 Kenley Jansen (likely)
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (likely)
2011 Sale (maybe)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Aroldis Chapman (maybe - coming off a great season)
2011 Salvador Perez (maybe)
2011 Goldschmidt (likely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (maybe - 5th in saves coming off bad season)
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (likely)
2013 Machado (likely)
2013 Cole (maybe - coming off injury season)
2014 Betts (lock)
2014 DeGrom (maybe - comeback season, but a lot of work to do)
2014 J Ramirez (likely)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (likely)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
2016 Trea Turner (too soon to tell)
2016 Seager (too soon to tell)
2017 Bregman (too soon to tell)
2017 Judge (lock)

You have a lot of guys as locks who would be questionable for HOF if they retired today. Going by history, I would expect at least one to not make it. However Beltran and Posey as maybe? Those guys are locks. If Ortiz was 1st ballot and CC was 1st ballot, Posey is going in easy on the first ballot. With Beltran's high vote total, it would be unprecedented for him not to be elected soon.

As far as others, Ohtani and Soto need 10 seasons. In 2 more years both are probably locks. Blake Snell has a lot of work to do. He has 2 great seasons and not a lot after. A 3rd Cy Young would put him in the likely category.

Another guy to watch is Francisco Rodriguez. I could see him being like Billy Wagner or Lee Smith and sneaking in. The way pitching is changing, we may not see high career save numbers again, causing voters to look at older relievers in a more favorable light. Also the starting pitcher prospects look thin after the big 4 retire and get elected right away. When we saw a drought in starting pitching, the BBWAA elected no starting pitchers to the HOF who debuted between 1970-1986, they elected several relievers.

For players like Harper and J Ramirez I'm assuming they continue at some level of decent productivity in which case I see them as locks, rather than assuming worst case scenario where their careers end. But it's a fair point.

1st guy I thought of was Elston Howard. 12 time All-Star, 2x Gold Glove, 4 World Series and throw in an MVP Award.

Unfortunately though, not really even close to a HOF'er. Maybe if he wasn't such a late bloomer and stuck behind Yogi for so many years.

Salvador does have the power numbers over those guys, but Freehan and Howard both have better career OPS+ numbers then him.

That said, I'd be ok with Salvador Perez getting in.

I wonder what Ohtani would have to do in the next two season to play himself out of the Hall of Fame.

If he is forced to retire due to a career ending, off season injury -- but wins his 4th MVP, I think the HOF board would waive the 10-year service requirement and put him up for a vote. I don't know if that's fair or not, but i dont think there's even been a 2-time MVP who had a career ending injury before reaching the 10-year mark.

I think it would take a scandal of Pete Rose or Wander Franco proportions -- or if he's caught injecting himself with Dianabol -- for him to not make the Hall.

OK by popular demand I am adding 2018.

Stanton hitting 500 homers would really challenge the standard. Who would people say is currently the worst player with 500 homers? Stanton would be at least a step below whoever you decide.

When it came to 3,000 hits Biggio was a test but he got in. I would think Stanton in the HOF would be unavoidable if he did get to 500.

Sheffield comes to mind without looking.

I think Stanton would easily be the worst guy on the 500 list. Sheffield hasn't gotten in yet because of the slight stink of PED's on him (but no worse then the stink on Ortiz), and I'd rank Sheffield way above Stanton.

Harmon Killebrew had a similar batting profile to Stanton, but he walked a ton more then Stanton and was far more durable, and I don't really consider them close otherwise.

Biggio to me was a no-brainer. He's 16th all time in runs and 6th all-time in doubles.

Stanton isn't a lock for 500 either, with his injury history. He's young enough he could have a late career renaissance and do it next season...or he might never get past 475 if his body gives out on him.

Sheffield was a .292 career hitter, but he couldn't field. I would probably rank McGwire below Sheffield since McGwire was a much more one-dimensional player.

McGwire 75 points ahead in OPS.

They're practically even in WAR - McGwire 62.2, Sheffield 60.5.

Sheffield has 253 stolen bases to 12 for McGwire.

Sheffield hit .292, McGwire hit .263

Sheffield had 1676 RBIs and 1636 runs scored compared to 1414 and 1167 for McGwire.

How much of McGwire's advantage in OPS came from PEDs?

Once you open up that last question, it makes a lot of comparisons problematic I think. I don't know the answer, particularly where there was some noise surrounding Sheffield too. I guess leaving all that aside I'd still give the edge to McGwire over Sheffield but obviously it's not a huge gap.

The worst 500 HR guy is still an excellent baseball player. Yeah, someone has to be the worst, but it's thin on concerns.

Some guys have subpar aspects of their game, but excel in other areas...like Sheffield's glove pretty much anywhere he played sucked...though he had a great arm.

Chemicals asterisks aside, they were all great.

That said, unless G.Stanton turns things on and cranks them up over his last seasons he's going to be a hell of a boring overall 500 HR guy with many holes in his game. Adam Dunn could have changed the 500 HR argument for HOF guys years ago if he managed to get there (462, retired at age 34).

Is that Manute's daugher?

David Ortiz was worse than both and I am not sure that Stanton would be worse than Ortiz. The correct answer is Kyle Schwarber. I have been told he is a lock for 500 HR, but I don't think that would get him into the HOF. Stanton would be a lock with 500 HRs. If he comes up short, his comp is Fred McGriff and he is a big maybe.

Ortiz is in the HOF because he was liked and he denied using steroids. Sheffield admitted using the clear and the cream with Bonds. That will keep Sheffield out.

Maybe. They call it D-Ball.

+1, 39.8 WAR after age 31 season. 6 Seasons without a missed game. Getting close to 300 HR's and 1,000 RBI with lots of time left.

We'll see about Schwarber. He still needs 160 more home runs to get to 500. A lot of players have been locks to reach milestones until suddenly they aren't. If the Phillies resign Schwarber (which seems likely), I certainly hope he stays productive and gets to 500 home runs, but I'm not sure I would consider him a lock.

Some voters will not like Aroldis Chapman's 30 game suspension for firing a gun 8 times into his garage wall during a domestic situation with his gal pal

Ha! It's what Ben Johnson took when he beat Carl Lewis in 1988. I think they use it for thoroughbred horses.

IIRC domestic violence derailed Omar Vizquel.

Yes, plus a sexual harassment lawsuit involving an autistic batboy

List is missing Andruw Jones

Agreed. Beltran and Jones are almost locks based on the last voting. I think they will likely get in within the next 2-4 years, likely when there is a weak class

Andruw Jones only has 2 more years on the ballot, this year and next. He got 66.2% on the last ballot so seems likely to be elected before he falls off the ballot.

Don't sleep on Felix Hernandez. He had the peak and his career numbers will look better as time goes on and pitchers continue to throw fewer innings. 20 percent in his first year on the ballot.

Andruw Jones should have been first ballot but defense doesn’t mean that much to the HOF - I’m not sure why Molina is not a lock - You could argue WAR against him but there’s no way he and BFF Pujols do not go in together - He also got along with the press which is important to the voters

I'm going to respectfully disagree. Hernandez, while a hell of a pitcher in his 20's, fell off the table and simply didn't compile enough counting stats. It also doesn't help that he never went far in the playoffs. His winning percentage isn't high enough, the 169 Wins he has isn't high enough, both his black and gray ink scores are below the typical Hall of Fame threshold.

Even looking at his similarity scores, he compares to pitchers like Jake Peavy, Dave Steib and Cole Hamels. All very good pitchers in their own right, but none of them truly Hall of Fame worthy. Though I would tend to agree that Hernandez (along with Steib) certainly had the talent, but just couldn't hold on for long enough/ couldn't stay healthy.

I'd call DeGrom likely. In the admittedly improbable event that he reaches Dizzy Dean's total of 150 career wins he'll go in on the first ballot. In the even less likely event that he retires today, he's already done enough to linger on the ballot for several years. Most notably, he's one of three pitchers in MLB history with a career WHIP < 1.00; the other two haven't pitched in well over 100 years.

DeGrom is tricky. Unless he has some sort of late career resurgence and rattles off another Cy Young award, I can't see it happening. The WHIP argument you bring up is true, for sure, but we're talking about a starter that in Twelve seasons has barely been able to finish half of them without landing on the DL.

Sure when he was younger and healthy DeGrom was lights out, I just don't see a justifiable reason to truly put him in the Hall of Fame, barring a resurgence. He has FOUR complete games for his career. I understand his impressive talent, it's a shame he's missed so much time due to health. I hope he proves me wrong but I can't see it being likely

Speaking of first ballot...and a drum a will not stop banging...

Kenny Lofton being a one-and-done 1st ballot drop off was a terrible oversight and dishonor to his career.

Whether you think he's a HOF player or not (I do), he was much better than a one-and-done ballot guy.

OK added Jones, to me still a maybe, just not very compelling IMO.

I'd take Stieb over Jack Morris any day of the week. Didn't rack up sexy win numbers because of who he pitched for, but a superior pitcher by far, and he threw almost 3000 innings so not like he was a flash in the pan.

100% agree with you. I'm convinced Morris made it on his extra inning, complete game, World Series performance.

Well the title is "Players not yet eligible" so I can see leaving him and Beltran off.

That's a good point. Maybe that's why I didn't have Jones, and when I started the list Beltran was not yet eligible. Going to delete them.

There were some great 80s/early-90s "Hall of Pretty Good" pitchers that are semi-overlooked except for team fanbases...

Dave Stieb, Bret Saberhagen, Mark Langston, Kevin Appier, Jimmy Key, Jose Rijo, Mario Soto, Chuck Finley, David Wells...all solid "Oh yeah, that guy!" dudes.

Orel Hershiser's announcing career has kept his name alive...

I would add David Cone and Kevin Brown to that list.

Hell, I wouldn't be upset to see David Cone in legit HOF discussions.

...and some more guys...Dave Stewart, Dennis Martinez, Bob Welch, Rick Sutcliffe...Mike Scott, maybe...

Hmm, not sure I'd agree with Mike Scott, given that he was almost certainly a cheater.

The biggest HOF snub is Keith Hernandez.

I would say Schilling and Tiant but there are a lot of candidates.

I think Gil Hodges and Buck O'Neill getting in helps Keith's case. Barely not a HOF playing career, but when its coupled with his time in arguably the best booth in baseball pushes him into the HOF from an entire career perspective

Totally agree! I feel the same way about Jim Edmonds and Jorge Posada. How in the world were they one and done? Andruw Jones is on the cusp of making the HOF and Edmonds (superior to Jones all around IMO) didn't even make a second ballot???

Carlos Delgado also did not see a second ballot

Indeed. I mean you could justify not voting him in, in context, but with 473 home runs the FU goodbye seems a bit too much.