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Speaking of alternative assets, gold hsa hit what I think is an all time high, at lesat dollar wise (I believe there may be other ways to look at it where it's still nowhere near its 90s levels).
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And the hedgies seem to be pretty good at selling their story. No doubt, some of them are probably pretty good, and might even be worth their elevated fees. I think the general premise is their ability to deliver in any market, although they might miss out on the high highs, they'll also protect you from the downswings. Often another marketing element is their ability to invest in nontraditional assets that might be off-limits in more traditional funds. Of course, Buffett's bet didn't make the hedgies look all that great: https://proinvestnews.com/2025/01/28...for-investors/ |
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S&P Global publishes its SPIVA (S&P Indices Versus Active) scorecards twice a year. The scorecard compares the performance of active mutual funds (after fees) to relevant S&P benchmark indexes over periods of one, three, five, 10, and 15 years. It found that 88% of active large-cap funds failed to beat the S&P 500 over the last 15 years as of the end of 2023. Even when you look at a shorter three-year period, about 80% failed to beat the benchmark.
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https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-s...nt-even-close/ |
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Seems one can manipulate or select data to prove either side of it, from what I am seeing online. Not surprisingly, the data purporting to show hedge fund returns are mostly superior are from ..... hedge funds. People seeming more like academics say the opposite.
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Go and call some of the fund guys..and ask them if they out perform the S and P since the inception of their fund....you will see they dont 95 percent of time time |
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If you want to get in the nitty gritty of evaluating and picking stocks then read “Security Analysis” by Benjamin Graham and “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” by Philip Fisher. Warren Buffett swears by these two books. Peter Lynch wrote a couple books back in the 1990s which also incorporate Graham’s and Fisher’s stock picking philosophies.Lynch’s books are easy reading.The Intelligent Investor by Graham is also worth reading.
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Books shmooks. All ya really need is B & B - Baseball cards and Bitcoin. Haha
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I liked this book as well.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1455503304...d_asin_title_2 It's interesting, most people you talk to think of investing as picking individual stocks, but ain't necessarily so. |
Touch ‘em all: “ Books shmooks. All ya really need is B & B - Baseball cards and Bitcoin. Haha”
That’s perfectly reasonable. I wouldn’t be surprise if Wall Street is doing this right now. Classically when it doesn’t make sense to buy stocks, the Wall Street Bros would shift their money into bonds. Annette Thau’s The Bond Book is a good reference. When buying bonds or stocks don’t make sense then the Bros would shove the money into alternatives like land, metals, collectibles etc. |
Well, anecdotally, I think prices are coming down now. I'm getting a lot of offers from sellers on eBay. Offers that are bringing the prices down below the most recent comps -- in some cases, quite significantly. It never made sense to me that baseball cards would somehow be immune to policy and economic uncertainty, and I think that's playing out now.
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How are we feeling about the baseball card market now? I don't think I am being political by saying that we are all dealing with man-made volatility that no professional investor alive has ever managed through. In this environment, I'd have to imagine that you're better off as a buyer than a seller of cards -- that is, if you have the stones for it.
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Prices for consumers going up, retirement accounts going down...I'm certainly not stocking up on card purchases.
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Rare pre-war increasing in price, still a financial struggle to keep up with that market. Entry points coming down on phenomenal American companies, what's not to like? |
[QUOTE=Casey2296;2507591]-Entry points coming down on phenomenal American companies, what's not to like?[/QUOTE]
The hit to my S&P 500 mutual fund today, for starters!! :( |
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And a card for the thread. An American symbol of class, consistency, competence and excellence.
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One of my collecting focuses is type cards. I'm especially partial to scarce type cards with neat advertising, such as the nice Shotwell Mfg. Co. card you traded me 2 years ago. But hey, you got my Western Playground type card which I still miss, and I doubt you care to offer it back to me.:) Tell you what, you come up with a Sam Rice card I need, especially a Witmor Candy with the vertical back, and you'll have your Shotwell back in a heartbeat! :D |
Love the '66 Aaron. Great card ! Thanks for posting.
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I think collectibles may provide a safe haven for money coming out of the stock market.
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Or even just switch your allocation a bit. If you usually invest X every month, then ramp it up to 1.5X or 2X while the market seems to be down. Although that might require allocating away from other stuff, like cardboard, in which case it might be more painful than we want to admit. |
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I think a good indicator as to whether there is a correlation between the stock market and card prices will be the closing tomorrow night of the LOTG auction. If card prices finish flat from their current levels, rather than soar in extended bidding, as per norm, it will be a reflection that the demand curve for vintage has paused, as people worry about their money.
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Sounds like you're pretty much set, so you don't really need much by way of advice. But if I had any advice for someone in your situation, it would probably be to not sweat the market. No point in worrying about something you can't control, and probably doesn't really have much of an impact on you anyway. |
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150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless 30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles 20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition 50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies Just ridiculous ... |
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On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume. Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard. A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity. |
Obviously one size is not going to fit every person paying these sorts of prices, but I would guess the vast majority are the type Adam describes. I.e., people to whom the money really is beside the point.
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When the pandemic boom started, everybody assumed that it was the "super-rich" or the "guys on Wall Street" who were driving up prices. But when the bubble burst, those same people started to dump their cards, which hurt prices even more. These guys couldn't make their mortgage payments or pay their line of credit and in the end they got destroyed. So, nope ... not rich ... only stupid ... |
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Between this and expensive spreads in illiquid spots, commissions, etc....I've always guessed that in theory, options were a similar negative sum game (on both sides) for dart throwers. They're too overpriced to go long with a positive EV, yet all the extra costs and limitations with being short may be just as bad. In the end, not much different than having to lay -110 on either side of a game in a sportsbook |
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Americans do what they do because they can........... |
After last week, I am going to change my vote from "no" to "yes." This is looking pretty ugly....
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Does anybody think that the recent market slide will affect bidding in the auctions that are active? Subconsciously?
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If the downdraft continues for a while and extends in intensity, it’s hard to imagine that it won’t have an effect. Like most things in life, it’s a lot easier to identify once it’s happened. I guess we’ll see. |
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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please. - |
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Always room to debate what was the trigger for any given outcome, of course. And just because I picked up a few nice deals doesn’t mean that there won’t be plenty that go the other way. But maybe you’ll get lucky too. |
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I watched 2 lots that I was in on last night blow past what I was going to bid tonight. I'm out, but happy to see people spending.
Market goes up & down. Unless you are retiring this month it should have ZERO impact on your spending. SACK UP! |
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Regardless of the market, if you are looking to invest, the stock market is better than cards. But if you have money for a hobby, investment isn't really the consideration. |
The Love of the Game results also were very strong; Al runs a helluva auction. I whiffed on every lot I was chasing and in most cases it wasn't close. Would've loved to get that Jackie Robinson ca. 1947 snapshot but at $4400+, my ceiling was more of a floor.
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The seller of the 1915 Ruth Team photo did well! Bought Summer 2023 LOTG $6k and sold last night for $140,000:eek:. |
What did the write-up say in 2023? This is like that WWG DiMaggio in Goldin --amazing realization change.
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Adam--Looking at 19th century material the LOTG realizations were so so at best. Old Judges did OK for the most part but some of the rest did very poorly relative to past realizations.
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Again a grading company change results in a radically higher price. How could PSA go from a type 3 to a type 1 in their evaluation? I know nothing about photos but if graders can't tell the difference between a type 3 and a type 1 why would collectors pay such a premium for the latter?
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There is an explanation in the auction itself.
Please note: this very example previously sold in our Summer, 2023 Premier Auction and was encapsulated as a Type III photo at that time. Over one year later a second example of this photo, with identical embedded editing, surfaced in the hobby which PSA determined to be a Type I photo. That photo ultimately sold elsewhere in September, 2024 in excess of $85,000. PSA then updated their opinion on the offered example, determining the embedded editing within both images is, in fact, a result of application to the original negative itself and not present due to use of a copy negative. A full LOA from PSA is included with this photo noting the critical distinction. |
Yes, Al did a great job explaining it.
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Futures closed in Asia, and Monday looks like it's going to be a tough day of selling. And NYT indicates that EU is preparing retaliatory tarifs.
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Time to panic!!!!!!
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Here's another card for the thread. The Kid played clean, played hard, and was beloved in both Canada and New York.
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