+1 Adam! Nice post for 2 in the morning (3 your time?)

Why is this bizarro? The hobby originally took off during the second worst economic crisis in our country's history after the great depression? We had double digit unemployment, double digit inflation and double digit interest rates yet there were enough people with money to buy baseball cards that everything rose dramatically in price.

Now we have the government sending everyone 3200.00 and people are locked in their homes with little to spend it on. Why wouldn't you expect some of it to go into cards when the government gives out free money to people who don't need it? After the stock market crash last year, why shouldn't people diversify into this hobby which has a 40 year history of solid growth?

I agree with your 4 points, but what we don't know is how many of these new investors will leave when we have the correction. That will determine if the drop will be minor or prices will correct back to close to where they were a year ago.

Meanwhile a 1952 Topps Mays PSA 2 sells for $5,951 on eBay yesterday. Another PSA 2 closing out in 12 hours already at $3,400.

While I agree with most of your post, I think it should be noted that the gov't giving people $600 or $1400 stimulus checks is definitely not driving the price of Jordan rookies to $700k or Kobe refractors to $500k, or even cards that are now selling in the 5 figure range.

I attended a small 40 dealer sports card Saturday. I know two gentlemen who were there had at least 150,000 in cash buying, one was usually on the phone for the buyer. They both left broke--Ha!

LOL!! Card rich, cash poor. After they flip the cards, they will have a lot more than $150k, guaranteed.

The gap between museum dealer table prices and market prices is getting closer. Maybe some day soon there will be an actual deal at a show.

Shaun, you got that right! I never could understand how anyone could think that the stimulus checks have anything to do with the crazy prices we are seeing now. Cards that sold for $1k in Nov are going for $10k now (look at Brady's Bowman Chrome, Magic/Bird RC, etc.) I think this is 90% about people with money being bored and entering the market. Once that happened they and others see prices rising and don't want to miss out.

Absolutely. Those people buying 6-figure cards aren't doing so because of any stimulus check. People have to realize that those playing at that level are an incredibly small slice of the pie on the whole, though.

True. I think the stimulus plays very little part in this. I definitely agree with the basic rules of economics posted earlier though and they are absolutely in play here. My take.... modern is already starting to decline. The big money is shifting from 5-6 figure purchases on semi-unproven players and moving towards the GOATS. Hence what Jordan, Lebron, Kobe, Trout, Brady, and some others are doing. From there, it will continue to pump into safe vintage... Mays, Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, etc... So I think vintage still has some more rising to go. It’s trickling down from 80s/90s GOATS because that’s the generation predominantly driving this bus. Those were the players they grew up with.

Now the question becomes money. Where does it all come from and how much is someone wiling to “invest”. As was said earlier, lack of trust in stock market, or asset allocation / diversify, Hedge funds, yadda yadda. More big money is coming into the industry for their portfolio. No question. I would say a large chunk of that money is from young 20-40 year olds who don’t believe in history repeating itself. They hit it big with crypto, GME, Tesla, or flipping modern over the last year. They now have no problem moving 6 figures around in baseball cards. And yes... we all have had an incredible amount of free time these days. All while not spending as much as we did pre-covid (generalizing here...). Lack of eating out, vacations, doing something other than sitting in front of a device.... Once that shifts, there will definitely be a slow down in demand. I’d almost guarantee that. The question is how long until that effects this wild market.

I think I'm a relatively young collector (early 30s) and I have a group of friends who are similarly young people. No one other than myself is interested even vaguely in cards, never mind considering investing in them. None of them have a history in the hobby and I still remain convinced there is very little interest from normal every day people in cards.

Also with interest rates being this low, debt is cheap. Not a whole lot of incentive to pay off loans early or keep money parked in bonds and savings accounts. Thus far, stocks, real estate and alternative investments (cards, crypto, etc) have been benefiting, but I think when interest rates rise again, we’ll see money get pulled out of here and prices start to recede. Maybe not to where they were before, but below these levels.

I think the part of the Hobby that sees a bit of the drop off is the lower end vintage. What I mean is your Graded A-3 Cards, will probably dip back a bit. I think your high end vintage won't necessarily rise but certainly maintain its value. Unless some sort of Major market correction happens.

As a side note I'm even more upset that the Jordan RC I have, turned out to be a fake. As I would've sold it off by now and made a healthy amount of money.

I use this as another indicator that there’s still growth. I have similar experiences when I mention spending big money on cards... I get the weird look like “you spend 15K on a piece of cardboard??”. The everyday people may not want to invest in cards, but until the day comes where I mention baseball cards and they answer with “oh yeah, I’ve heard a lot of people doing that”.. I think there’s still time. We aren’t quite at the “Stock tips from the shoeshine boy” yet.

I could see that happening for a card like the Wagner or 52 mantle the same way the uninitiated invest in Picasso when they decide to turn to art. But the all important question to ask is what would make someone interested in anything but the marquee cards who otherwise doesn't care about baseball cards.

double post

Good point! I suppose my answer would be using myself as the example. Collected as a kid for fun, obviously not as investments. Stopped collecting when life started. Fast forward to last year and the whispers of card industry booming start. You now have a group of people re-kindling childhood memories with an investment twist. The example I gave above that mentioned getting looks from friends who thought I was nuts... most of those friends collected cards as a kid. My thoughts are they are in somewhat of “uninitiated” when it comes to investing in cards or even a lack of knowledge on big cards even though they had 1000 Chris Sabo rookies. There might be enough spark to get them to realize they can combine sports, childhood memories, and investing all together.

I still get those looks whenever I bring up getting back into cards.

Because regardless of the articles in SI or on ESPN in the last year, the vast majority of every day people don't have any idea what's going on in the card market (and still assume that it's just a childish hobby). Even though there's obviously the segment who have gotten newly covid-involved, it's still nowhere near the "oh it's so mainstream now" situation that some claim.

I can only speak for myself of course but I don't know very many guys who haven't bought a pack of cards in their life. Unless you were an addict when you were a kid I don't see you becoming one suddenly as an adult.

I of course agree that a return to childhood is a major motivator for adults to collect anything. But you would have had to have been passionate about whatever it is you're returning to. Not just casually participated. I casually collected Pokemon cards when they came out for one summer as a kid. Do I have any interest in investing in a Charizard? No. Do I have any interest in buying a common instead? Also no.

I have a friend who says the same thing. I reminded him he spent $30k on a rock (ancient gold coin) but WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE? Neither will feed you if you are starving. Both are only worth what someone is willing to pay. I could argue that it's easier to liquidate my card collection than for him to sell his coin (I think, guessing since his coin is not graded).

The liquidity of the new digital marketplace benefits collectibles so, so much. Back in the junk wax era and before, a dealer could have stuff like a 1961 Topps Al Kaline sit in his display forever unless it was highly discounted (especially at small town card shows).

Now, you just auction it off on ebay and get paid what it's worth whenever you want.

The digital marketplace helps, but to take it to the next level, we need to reduce transaction costs. This will never happen and a little crazy talk, but a page from the stock market, if we can get critical mass in a central repository, then we can reduce storage/transaction costs as a whole, and with a card depository, you don’t have the escrow issues we have right now, which will bypass the 10-20% juice we give to auction houses.

Basically it would be the pwcc vault, with a significantly reduced maintenance fees to scale up, and when an investor wants to sell his card, he can sell it in a marketplace or auction format for a much smaller nominal fee. Say flat fee instead of percentage. The buyer has the right to demand settlement upon purchase and pay shipping, or keep the card in the repository fee free for a year...

BST the bitch and save the vig.

The price rises are fueling the momentum in a true FOMO cycle. The cards I am tracking are not the five and six figure headliners but they are setting price records every day. A card I thought of as a reasonable buy at $500 in October is a steal at $1500 today.

Exactly. In the 21st century we finally have the technology to make hobby markets work efficiently. Very similar to my example of being a kid in 1987 - I'd see some card I wanted (maybe even if it was just a cool looking common...) in Beckett or Baseball Cards Magazine. Then I'd have to wait months to go to a show near me. Then at the show, 50/50 chance if it was something slightly nobody there would have the card anyway.

With the advent of eBay, not only can I find that card - I can decide I want it at 10 pm, then go online and there are likely a dozen or more of them at my fingertips that can be here next Tuesday. Trust me as an introverted kid growing up the late 80's and early 90's - for all it's problems - eBay and online selling is quite literally a dream come true. Oh! And then there were all those old MAD magazines I could never find...

I am not an economist and every time I try to play one on TV, I get smacked down by someone who actually knows what they are talking about, so forgive me...

But, it seems like QE and the money printing is a stimulus for the (semi)wealthy. My investment portfolio was down 42% on March 23rd last year. Since then, my investments (and net worth) have more than doubled. Based on income, I don't qualify for the $2,000. But it seems that I get the a 10x factor of that benefit every time they juice the economy with more money. This could be just coincidental, but that money feeds the market and it feeds corporate earnings and that drives valuations.

I make a nice living with a paid off house and college saved, so I should be one of those people that are being described that are buying into the market. However, I bought one card in 2020 and just track auctions and prices so far this year. I have a memory of 2012-2015 prices and my mind won't seem to ever let me pull the trigger anymore. So the person buying the PSA 7 Mantle must be playing in a different stratosphere and considers it an asset class. I have a tough enough time leaving my collection in cards versus converting to equities. When you factor in the risk of fire and theft as well as the eventual costs with estate taxes at 28% and auction house fees, it just doesn't seem to make sense long term. The fact that someone would have several hundred grand in liquid cash to add to a safe or safe deposit box somewhere just seems hard to believe. It is not like they aren't getting good returns in equities right now. But there is some crazy money out there, I guess.

Yes, I agree with your thoughts. The overall economic stimulus definitely helps. I was referring to lots of people who believe the 1200 or whatever payment they received was helping drive this train.. which I’d disagree. However, I’d agree with your theory.

Never sold $150k worth of cards but don’t you owe income tax on sales like that?

I'm seeing lots of people talking about this being a bubble, unsustainable, and so forth. So my question is this:

Has there ever been a time when vintage cards have dropped in price? For more than 6 months? Not talking about the cratering of modern nonsense in the early 90s but vintage - Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, and so on.

???

The transaction costs are a major issue and often really overlooked (especially during a raging markets), but I can't imagine the logistics of a central depository being feasible for cards. And even if it were, most people like to have big parts of their collection in hand to look at.

I always thought the best chance of solving the problem was simply forums like this becoming huge. If the traffic at places like this got anywhere near even 1/3 to 1/2 of ebay levels, we'd really have something.

I think we just found the new Net54 tshirt slogan.

With the big guys (especially Mantle, duh!), I believe the prices are here to stay and up, up and away they will continue to go. Sure, some of the less valuable and more overproduced cards will decline, but I don't see any sort of market-wide drop in cards of the all-time-greats ever coming. Now, when you see the ridiculous prices being asked for lesser HOF'ers and whatnot, etc., that thing is unsustainable!!! No way that's ever going to last.

Then you aren't doing your job!

Who said iconic vintage is expensive?

This 1933 Goudey Ruth is 1/2-off ... literally.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freshly-Gra...kAAOSwAgFgJGVp

Chris, this is what folks said in 2008 before the real estate crash. Has anyone ever seen housing prices go down, especially in the big markets like California? Just because it never happened before doesn't mean we're not in a bubble now.

As others in this thread have said, I fully believe the reason for the card prices to skyrocket is that we are awash in money supply looking for a place to land when interest rates are basically 0. And that is exacerbated by the pandemic where families who have jobs are saving a lot of money because they are not going on vacations or eating out as much, so there is even more money looking for a place to be spent. Therefore, I don't really expect the bubble to pop until we start seeing inflation and rising interest rates.

Also, I don't think the bubble is as bad in prewar as it is in modern. I somewhat justified the prices of modern in the past because hey, if you wanted to get an autograph of Michael Jordan, how much are you going to have to pay for it? MJ is a billionaire so he doesn't need to go to card shows to sign, so it's never going to be easy to get one of the autos of the big stars like him or Lebron, etc. You might was well buy a card with his auto on it, so that adds to the premium there. However, prices these days have just gotten completely out of hand given the supply out there.

Given what I just said, why don't I just sell out if I believe the market is going to crumble? It's that collector part of me that has a hard time doing that. I have cards in my possession that I've wanted for a very long time, and some of them have pops that are very low, that if I sell, I may never be able to buy back again even if the market goes down. For the other cards with higher pops, it's still back to my collector possessiveness. I just love having that card in my collection even if I could get a bundle by selling it. I don't need the money right now, so there is no urge to let it go. Of course, I will probably regret this all if the card market crashes. :)

Ha. Classic

Omg!!!
 

i thought the Jordan market had topped out, but i was way wrong...crazy prices for his second, third and fourth year graded cards also.... I cant hold any longer, i am moving some of mine now, yes, they may go higher, but anytime i can sell for 5,6,7,8X what i paid i cant be unhappy. These are not rare or low pop at all...... This is INSANE!! :eek:

Never a bad thing to take a profit and it's tough to time the market. I bought an '81 Topps Larry Bird PSA 9 in July of 2019 for $60. A year later I saw it was trading for over $500 and my eyes damn near popped out of my head, so I sold it this past summer and made a huge ROI.

I took a peak and the card is now selling for something like 6x what I sold it for. Ouch, but like I said, hard to time the market.

Profit is a profit though. It's tough to play the what if game.

My first purchases last March were Topps/Donruss/Fleer Mattingly rookies - all PSA 10. My next purchases were Gehrig/Dimaggio/WaJo and Speaker.

After seeing some of the prices the last month I can go ahead and admit to myself that I'm not an investor and these aren't investments. They're for me to put in a case on my wall and enjoy.

My wife put it nicely. She said, "It's nice to know you can sell them if we need the money, but right now we don't, so enjoy them."

...wonder if that's because she thinks they were all $200. ;)

I sold two early Jordans into the first wave and took the profit never thinking it would go up from there but they tripled. I then bought another last October that quintupled, so I will probably list it for sale too. Underprice the last sale by 10% and move it out. Getting hard to find things to flip, though.

Can't think of a better time in the history of card collecting to sell into the surge in pricing. But like most other collectors, I just can't come to grips with letting go of my babies. Trying to "time the market" rarely coincides with a real world scenario when you actually need the money and are forced to sell.

All i can say its nuts
 

I just sold two psa lebron topps chrome psa 10s . I paid $1200 thought i was crazy ..will not say what they sold for . Meet the person in ct. 23 yrs old nuff said. I like the friends ive made in this hobby. I love selling $20 cards . I have shaq and iverson raw rookies i paid .75 for if you need them ...ok you get the picture .its insane

The last call to sell at the market’s top is potentially upon us. I just read multiple articles (from credible news sources) that COVID cases have dropped 77% in the past 6 weeks. More than 15% (U.S. population) have already received the vaccine and that number only increases each day.

Physicians (from highly credible medical institutions) just said that herd immunity will potentially take effect as early as this April. If so, things will quickly open up, especially around summer, and people will reallocate their current card budget funds to vacations, concerts, bars, restaurants, experiences, etc.

Some people will exit the hobby as quickly as they entered it. Some will remain, but spend less money on cards. The current demand level for cards will decrease. Those that completely exit the hobby may want to sell. If so, this will also increase the supply. Reduced demand and increased available supply is great for us collectors (not investors). Plus, how many cards that were previously in dusty closets and attics were re-discovered during the pandemic and graded or brought to the market? Vintage supply, at least card’s to the market, will increase in the near future.

Sure my collection’s value will significantly decrease when this plays out, but I don’t care. All the gains were just paper ones anyway. I only sell or trade when I upgrade an existing card. I’m ready for prices to crater, so I can resume purchasing cards on my wishlist. I can afford the cards on my list, but not in the grades I want. I’m priced out of the grades. I’ve had to settle for lower grades, and refuse to do it anymore.

Those that are considering selling may want to make the move. Sell at today’s prices, and then rebuy the same cards (and a lot more, or in better grades) at tomorrow’s prices. No one can perfectly time the market. We potentially are at the peak and may begin descending the other side soon. Let’s hope for the sake of people’s well-being - physical, mental, financial, spiritual, etc.!

I agree on many aspects pointed out above, pretty much all except I don’t believe key vintage high end cards will not pull back that much Ext+-Nrmt Cobbb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, Aaron, and Mays.

I have two or three cards moving up like a Gamestop stock....unfortunately I'm a HODL, and I can care less (thank God).....


Before you sell your cards. Here is a 2020 article for perspective. He was right, those goudey Ruths shot right through those rising price points. You held this long, why sell now - you can’t time the markets but the momo definitely goes longer than we expect... dang too bad I only have one goudey Ruth below.

https://prewarcards.com/2020/03/07/b...ut-of-control/

At some point, mine will be SODL!

The rising tide raises all boats just like the descending one lowers all boats. I agree that top grade, blue-chip cards will withstand dropping prices better than others, but even they won’t defy supply/demand economic principles.

Even low-grade cards are getting ridiculous. A ‘53 Topps Mantle 1 for $3k? WoW.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1953-Topps-...QAAOSwi09gEKcH

Joshua that Ruth is mouth watering. That's a keeper for life

These points of view never cease to amaze me:

- "I don't care if the value of my assets drop"

- "The gains are only on paper"

Something's liquid worth is what matters, regardless of whether or not it's "on paper". It doesn't matter what you paid (except for tax purposes).

And as far as hoping that your cards will lose a lot of their value.....I get if someone wants to focus on just collecting, but there's so much more to a market collapsing other than "being able to buy more of what you want".

Dealers' livelihoods are harmed. People will have less of an estate to leave to their heirs. Or some may hope to liquidate some of their collection to make their retirement better.

There's a lot more to it than flippers losing their ass and exiting the market

My views are just that - mine. I’m a baseball card collector; not a flipper, speculator, or investor. I intend to die with every card that I purchase and couldn’t care less if they all went to $0.00. I would still enjoy owning them and looking at them.

I do not view them as asserts. I only purchase cards with money I am willing to part ways with and never recover. If others do not do the same that is their business and problem.

As far as a collapse, all I want is for prices to return to pre-COVID, normal levels. I guess you’ve never shorted a stock? If you have, you do realize you are rooting for the stock to crater, which affects other people’s life’s and potentially everything you mentioned, right?