Hernandez led the league in Doubles, had 3 other top 5 finishes, and had 7 top 10 finishes in the NL. Madlock's best was 5th, and also tied for 9th once.

Hernandez led the league in Runs twice and had another top 5 finish. Madlock's highest was 8th which was his only top 10 finish.

Hernandez' 7 year peak WAR was 41.2. Madlock's was 28.4

Yes. That's why Hernandez has that big gap in grey ink. It is also a fact that their 162 game averages are very, very close in most things. We've covered almost all the traditional stats here, and they are close. They are very similar, in the same time. The data suggesting this is very strong.

If the argument is that Hernandez had the best season of either of them, I agree. The Hall is a career honor, and Keith's 13 black ink and 210th place are ink is not a credit though. That's a very, very difficult case to make, that his league lead finishes are hall worthy. A ton of other players would be worthy by it.

WAR likes Hernandez, even though it thinks Madlock was a better hitter. As I said, perhaps I underrate the value of 1B defense when 2B, SS, and C defense is not historically seen as a good Hall case. Look at their oWAR and you will see the massive value boosts from it. Keith gets 60.3, Madlock 38.2 even though Madlock gets more offensive WAR. WAR, the only metric by which Hernandez has a hall case, even thinks Madlock hit better. I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap ind defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

Clearly you haven't watched my daughter's little league softball games.

First base defense, you say? In a word...er...two words...Bill Buckner. :rolleyes:

You are just focusing on Hernandez' weaknesses (and I readily admit they exist) and not seeing the total body of work. Hernandez has a good WAR, a strong WAR7 and therefore a strong JAWS. He has a lot of awards--11 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, 5x All Star and an MVP (and two other top 5 finishes). He was one of the best players on World Series teams in two different cities and had clutch postseason hits. He was arguably the best fielding first basemen ever. Some believe he revolutionized the position by taking away the bunt down the right field line (he was amazing at charging) and turning diving plays into 3-6-3 double plays.

And you are comparing him to Bill Madlock, someone whose only awards are 3x All Star and an All Star MVP? Madlock had no Gold Gloves, no silver sluggers and never had a top 5 MVP vote. His WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are weak. And because his career was shorter than Hernandez, Hernandez beats him in almost all counting stats.

You gotta come up with someone better than that.

You may not care about peak, 1st base Gold Gloves, or awards, but others do.

All I am saying is that Hernandez deserves another vote.

Yes, Hernandez was very good. No one is disputing that. 2 silver sluggers, repeated as a credential several times now, is not a hall credential. Neither is 1B gold gloves, for any other player. An MVP, a batting title, these are nice seasonal achievements. Again not a Hall marker themselves, and if they are, Madlock's 4 batting titles are looking pretty great. Again, his black ink is very, very low. His league leads are not Hall level. Third time, I am happy to see the argument that first base defense really is as consequential as WAR claims it is for Hernandez. I'm not seeing it.

It is a fact that his statistics are very, very similar to Bill Madlock, a 4 time batting champion. Despite his shorter career WAR, the primary argument for Hernandez, thinks he was in fact a better hitter. This is not an insult to Hernandez. It is difficult to dispute that they are statistically very similar. Somethings are opinion, like whether Hernandez should be inducted, but other things are difficult to deny. They are close statistically. I don't need to "come up with someone better than that" (the comparison came from someone else, also) because this statement of fact is true.

If one cares about league leads, awards, and peak, none of which I have actually, in fact, dismissed, Hernandez does not meet the threshold, as pointed earlier. Again, his black ink is 13. 5 all stars, 2 silver sluggers, an MVP. These are not Hall inductee award resumes. An MVP is nice, many MVP winners don't get in. 2 silver sluggers? I really don't get why that one is repeated as a credential, that should be brushed under the rug to make a case for Hernandez. 5 All-Stars is not impressive at all for a HOFer.

All I'm saying is that I do not see a career, math based argument for Hernandez. He has one stat going for him at a close to hall level, and that stat seems highly dubious. I doubt 1B defense, in a world where every defensive hall of famer except Ozzie Smith is heavily criticized, is a big Hall resume accomplishment. I am happy to be corrected if any argument for it could ever be made.

WAR, WAR7, JAWS are all math-based. But you reject them for Keith Hernandez.

And the Hall of Fame is not based on math. It is based on a lot of other things, like clutch hitting to help win World Series, awards, and being the best at your position in your era.

Those are all the same stat, which I have very specifically said is his one stat at around hall level, several times. Again, for time number 4, I am open to a reasoned argument 1st base defense is actually hugely important and wins tons of games as WAR concludes for Hernandez, and that 1B defense should be a big factor.

As for the rejection of math argument, Hernandez was 1) worse in the playoffs than the regular season statistically, 2) already discussed several times, 2 silver sluggers, an MVP, 5 all-stars are simply not much of a Hall resume for any other player and 3) he was absolutely not the best 1B of his era, at all, and it would be rather silly to argue that he was better than Carew, Murray, and several others who partially overlapped for numerous seasons.

Some Hernandez highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv5-3-nq97Q

Keith is both the all time and single season record holder for game winning RBIs. He was clutch no doubt.

We'll just ignore that MLB only tracked the stat from 1980 to 1988.

Interesting. I did not realize the “GWRBI” statistic was only recorded between 1980-88. Then MLB subsequently did away with it, claiming it was too random and arbitrary...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b..._run_batted_in

Too bad there’s not currently a better method to measure clutch hitting. The ability to get the late inning 2-out hit is what typically separates the winners from the losers.

A good way to tell a poor hall of fame candidate is to look at the arguments made for them and see if they seem reasonable on their own without ever looking at a counterargument.

2 Silver Sluggers.

5 All star games.

A single batting title.

First Base defense.

A stat that existed and was tracked for 9 years labelled "All time".

Arguments like this these are the mark of a very bad hall of fame candidate. They are usually never made for good candidates because better arguments are available and made. Hernandez is probably actually better than these suggest, he was a very good player.

While you are on the topic of awards/metrics invented in 1980, you may wish to include silver slugger. Hernandez won the inaugural silver slugger for NL 1B in 1980. He did not win it in his MVP season because it didn't exist.

You forgot to include "All time best" next to First Base defense, or "11 consecutive Gold Gloves"

And of course you left out his multiple World Series, high WAR, WAR7, and therefore JAWS. You call his math numbers "dubious" while also claiming you acknowledge their strength.

As discussed here, GWRBI may not be the best metric for measuring clutch hitting, but performance in "high leverage" situations may be. Hernandez's batting average in "high leverage" situations was apparently .319

So to ejharrington's point, he was clutch.

Yes. He could have won three silver sluggers if it had existed. That is a much better hall credential.

Still awaiting an argument for 1st base defense. Perhaps I have underrated this pivotal position, where defense first catchers, second basemen and shortstops are held as among the worst selections.

I have very explicitly mentioned his playoff performance, just a few posts ago. Spoiler: it’s not good. He slashed .245/.349/.340. I don’t see how this can be construed as a credential, being average at best in the WS. This is a very poor argument. Being mediocre for 2 series is not a hall credential in any rational way.
If it was, we got a few hundred guys to go induct.

I have explicitly said multiple times his WAR is at that level. There is a transcript. This can be validated. WAR, WAR7, and JAWS are all the same statistic, cut up to different time periods. It is his only stat at (60 is not a done deal) or close to a Hall level. They are dubious. None of his offensive statistics are Hall tier, or even really close. Even his oWAR is nowhere near. Feel free to cite these career offensive statistics putting him at a hall of fame level.

You shouldn't get so emotional.

One thing I will say for Hernandez is that history has proven him to be a much better player than Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey.

Bury your head in the sand if you want. Here is the data comparing Keith to the other all-time great first basemen.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../jaws_1B.shtml

Add in the fact he was the key player on two different World Championship teams (watch the Mets documentary if you don't believe me - he was the leader), 11 Gold Gloves (uh, first base defense does matter - anyone who understands baseball knows this), batting title, clutch hitting, MVP, etc.

He's a clear HOFer.

Can you explain what makes Hernandez a HOFer but not Don Mattingly? They have almost the same credentials, but I would say Mattingly was by far the better player at his peak. He could do everything Hernandez could with his glove, but was far superior to Hernandez with a bat in his hand.

Hernandez has 11 gold gloves, Mattingly has 9. Hernandez has a batting title, so does Mattingly. They both won MVPs. Mattingly has one more all star appearance and silver slugger trophy.

I would find it surprising for anyone to say Keith Hernandez was better than Mattingly. He had a longer career, sure, and wasn't injured like Mattingly was. But I don't see how you can possibly argue Mattingly wasn't the superior hitter at his peak.

Mattingly was elite for four years. If we were just to compare top 4 years, I can see the case for Mattingly.

However, over longer periods, Hernandez was the better player.

Packs, check out their WAR7:
Hernandez 41.2
Mattingly 35.8

Most people would agree that 4 good years is not enough to make it to the Hall of Fame.

Mattingly was a better hitter in in '85 and '86 than Keith ever was. But Keith had a longer career and was more consistent.

Their career WARs aren't even close.

There are very few people that consider Mattingly to be the best fielding first basement ever, but there are many that believe Hernandez was. And the stats support this. Check out some tape of Hernandez. He was absurd.

It has been explained that Hernandez has a WAR out of whack with his performance. Whereas he has been rewarded for his defense, Mattingly has for some reason been punished, even though they have the same exact profile at first base. Nobody who played with Mattingly had anything different to say about his glove. He was all world as well but for whatever reason WAR doesn't reward him.

Even with his healthy career and longevity, Hernandez's counting stats are either below or only barely above Mattingly. Mattingly has more home runs, more RBIs, a higher career average, and a higher career OPS.

Hernandez has 29 more hits in 3 additional seasons and scored 117 more runs.

You said Mattingly had a four year peak. How did he eclipse Hernandez so much if Hernandez had this great HOF career?

It’s odd that the burden is on Hernandez supporters to explain why dWAR likes him. Perhaps you should explain why dWAR didn’t like Mattingly?

I can't. And that's the point. Mattingly had 9 gold gloves. If 11 gold gloves is a testament to Hernandez, how can 9 not be for Mattingly?

Not all Gold Gloves are created equal.

Check out their actual fielding stats:
Hernandez led the league in double plays turned 6x (the guy was doing 3-6-3 double plays),total zone runs at 1B 8x , assists at 1B 5x.

Mattingly led the league in double plays turned 2x, total zone runs as 1B 1x, assists at 1B zero times.

Please show me someone that thinks Mattingly was a better fielder than Hernandez.

Also note that Hernandez career OBP was much higher than Mattingly's and his OPS+ was slightly better too.

OPS+ differs by 1 point. Hernandez played 17 seasons to Mattingly's injury plagued 14, of which you said only 4 seasons were peak performance. How did a guy who played 10 seasons of injury plagued baseball end up so close to a healthy Hernandez?

Because there's almost nothing that separates them, that's how. Except that Mattingly had to be hurt most of his career to end up so close to Hernandez.

And as long as you want to keep hanging onto gold gloves, during their contemporary careers, Mattingly won the AL gold glove every single season Hernandez won the NL gold glove (besides 1984, but then Keith didn't win one in 1989), making him Hernandez's direct counterpart

They aren't that close. Hernandez has 60 career WAR, Mattingly 42 career WAR.

If you can't point to something else, it's because it's not there. The favorable WAR for Hernandez has been discussed to death.

And again, Mattingly had to be hurt for the majority of his career for Hernandez to put up similar career counting statistics. He was obviously far superior to Hernandez. Why else would he have to be hurt to finish so close to him?

For, I think the 5th time now, Hernandez has the WAR (WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are different time weighted cut ups of the exact same statistic, for the third time). This is all that can be pointed too that is actually near HOF standard. I am happy to stand corrected, for like the tenth time, but there's an obvious reason no other career stat, for this career honor, is brought up.

Surely one can see why this is not a compelling case to anyone who doesn't have a Keith Hernandez bias. He's got 1 stat, 1B defense is a joke when C, 2B and SS defense first players, with the sole exception of Ozzie Smith, are considered the worst HOF selections, and his WS performance is poor. If Madlock's 4 are dismissed and considered an insulting comparison, 1 batting title is not a credit.

The burden is on Hernandez supporters to explain why he belongs. They and you have in this thread chosen 1B defense and WAR, which likes Hernandez for defensive reasons.

The burden is on Mattingly supporters to explain why he belongs. They do not tend to rely on 1B defense (the least important position where poor fielders are relegated because it has the smallest impact), but his peak offense production.

Let's compare to The Great Bambino:

0 Silver Sluggers
2 All Star Games
A Single Batting Title
Only played first base in 32 games!

Keith sure compares favorably on all of these metrics.

You should read the statement you are replying too.

That concludes it, we have to remove the Sultan of Swat!

Wow, you guys are true Kings of Comedy. You should be proud.

If Mattingly had stayed healthy he would already be in the Hall of Fame. You yourself just said he was hurt for the majority of his career. Are you implying we should put him in the Hall for what he could have done if he hadn't been hurt?

You keep citing that defense first players are considered the worst HOFers. Who exactly are you referring to, Bill Mazeroski?

I hope not, because if you are comparing Bill Mazeroski to Keith Hernandez, then you have stooped even lower than comparing Bill Madlock to Keith Hernandez.

One more note--a lot of folks on here think Bill James knows what he is talking about. Last July he wrote an article in which he stated: I only advocate for a very limited number of players at any time, the very BEST of those not included; at the moment this would be Dwight Evans, Bobby Abreu and Minnie Minoso, perhaps one or two more. But I acknowledge the validity of other candidates. Keith Hernandez was a Hall of Fame caliber player. I’m not advocating for him, but I acknowledge that he belongs.

I personally would just like to see him get another shot at a vote.

I have named specifics several times. Apparently everything must be stated more than 3 times, only for it to be asked again. Mazeroski, Maranville, Schalk, I named specifically. I also stated that this category constitutes every player elected primarily for their defense except for Ozzie Smith, the only glove-primary HOFer that seems to generally held as a 'real one'. Those clear, precise statements made multiple times already should give you plenty to work with.

You are free to be insulted by Madlock's very similar bat to Hernandez and higher oWAR (since WAR is the only stat we can cite for Keith). I don't understand it, but that's your choice.

I tend to like James. More interested in the case for him, as for every single other player, rather than appeals to authority though. Argument by authority is fallacious.

Thanks!

So you are or are not comparing Keith Hernandez to Mazeroski, Maranville, or Schalk? It sure sound like you are.

As for your dismissal of citing Bill James as an "appeal to authority", that is just weak. I am sure you know better than Bill though.

I cannot fathom how my multiple statements, citing three specifics and then a blanket clause counting every single defense primary electee except for Smith, could possibly be simplified any further. There is no difficult word, no hemming and hawing, and it has been stated several times. It is already at its simplest. I do not understand why you need me to write everything 5+ times for you, and then keep asking me to state things I have already said in very simple and plain words again and again. It's right there for you already.

Yes. Because it is true. You didn't link an argument for Hernandez, you quoted in bold a statement of his belief without the argument. An appeal to authority, the authority of James. An appeal to authority is not reasonable. A thing is reasonable based on the supporting facts and merits of the argument itself, not what authority supports it. If we are arguing by appeal of authority, here's the trump card: "The Hall of Fame is the final authority and clearly things Hernandez does not belong. Therefore he does not". Which, of course, isn't logical, as it's just an appeal to authority.

Oh boy, your flustered again. Time to shut the thread down....

50% amused, 50% incredulous that you need very statement copied and pasted several times for you.

I'm glad we've decided the appeal to authority is the arbiter.

JAWS / WAR / etc. is a very big metric. It says he belongs. The writers disagreed. I believe his peers who actually watched him play will correct that mistake.

He wasn't selected for the committee vote. How do they intend to do that?

Yes, it would seem that they do NOT agree.

Garvey was considered in 2020 and 2018, Mattingly, McGriff and Palmeiro this year, Will Clark in 2019. It seems that they think there are several modern 1B more deserving. Which does not make them right, but I don't see how this committee that it is not putting him on the ballot is going to "fix" this mistake the writers made of not sorting BBREF by WAR.

I didn't say this time.

In case any of you missed it, the Hall of Fame website now lists the members of the committee who will be casting their ballots. Results will be announced this coming Sunday at 8 pm eastern time.

https://baseballhall.org/news/2023-e...ced-december-4

"The 16-member Hall of Fame Board-appointed electorate charged with the review of the Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot features Hall of Fame members Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell; major league executives Paul Beeston, Theo Epstein, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Dave St. Peter and Ken Williams; and veteran media members/historians Steve Hirdt, LaVelle Neal and Susan Slusser."

"Results of the voting will be announced live on MLB Network on Sunday, Dec. 4 during MLB Tonight at 8 p.m. ET. Any electees are expected to be available to media shortly after the announcement via individual Zoom calls.

Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling were named on Nov. 7 as the candidates for Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee consideration. All candidates are living."

On December 3, a whole heckuva lot of Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling rookie cards are going to be bought up on eBay.

I myself bought a bunch of Albert belle score traded for dirt cheap