Is 3000 hits a big deal or overrated?
I do appreciate that Ichiro didnt take like 20 years to do it like others which would be more easy but still
Isnt total bases the true measuring stick Id rather honor a guy for example with 2500 hits but 5000 total bases compared to a guy with 3000 hits with 4000 total bases because of a bunch of 2 out slap singles....this assumes the RBI total is also greater for the guy with 5000 total bases. I thought a walk is as good as a hit as well at least in little league. so maybe we should be honoring someone with 7000 total bases or whatever amount that there would be only 30 players that were able to get to whatever that number would be... Incidentally i just checked the total base leaders..and number 1 was a little a shy of 7000..(hank aaron 6856) Number 30 would be Andre Dawson. Babe Ruth would be number 7..he was shy of 3000 hits..does it matter?? http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...B_career.shtml Ichiro is 106th all time ranked in total bases...Chili Davis is 100th 42 bases ahead...i think should be a big celebration if Ichiro is top 100! Have a total bases countdown and wear shirts... plus ichiro is like 128 away from 4000 total bases..lets start the countdown |
Well.... 3000 hits is just a number that, because humans like even numbers, we decided carries some special meaning. It really doesn't. BUT, it's still a big moment in a player's career and has happened rare enough for it to be a decent career gauge.
HOWEVER, that being said, it isn't a very good yardstick for productivity as all hits are not created equal. 3000 Ichiro hits have not had the same value as 3000 Clemente hits. Power matters. Now, as to your idea about using Total Bases, it's ok I guess, but there are better numbers to use to get an overall picture of a hitter's merit. Weighted Runs Created + measures each hit individually includes park and league adjustment and puts it all into a neat single number with 100 being avg. Take that number and then look at hits and you get a better picture of production that took place in the hits rather than gauging all hits equally. (example: Ichiro's wRC+ for his career is 105, 5% above avg, Clemente's was 129 or 29% above avg) Another problem with hits and total bases is that total plate appearances matter too. Rose got 4256 hits to Cobb's 4189, but he did it over 15876 PA's to Cobb's 13072. It becomes obvious here that the so called" HIT KING" is nothing of the sort. |
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but not cool to be a 1.3 hit per game hitter...... i not into round numbers...i dont mind have a lot of 9s instead of 0s... |
Have you ever played baseball? College level? High School level?
Yes, getting 3000 hits in the Major Leagues is a big deal. It is an enormous accomplishment, no matter how long it takes. Heck, getting one at bat at that level is an honor of which any man could be proud. Look at how good you have to be, just to get drafted. Look at how few of all those who have played, have achieved certain milestones. |
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so if wade boggs told you than 3000 hits isnt a big deal, you would change your mind..or adam greenberg since he got 1 ab..whatever he says about baseball is right compared to you because you didnt play in the show? why go there....look at my post......it just compares total bases to hits....man, whats the deal. and what bravosforever stated....what clemente did for his 3000 hits blows away ichiro...yet we grouping them in the same category as an equal accomplishment... |
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I actually blame myself for being stupid enough to take you off my ignore list. That is now fixed.:) |
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thats a very postive thing to say. All you had to do is ignore the thread or contribute...no reason to basically attempt to insult me. The purpose of my thread was not negative at anyone at all, just talking baseball. Is that a bad thing? People that cut and hide 'blocking' have a reason too because they cant defend their position... Its too bad i wont get any more great posts from you on my threads :) |
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and it's an ok deal, but it's not some mark of greatness without the context of how it was done. Mostly it's a sign of longevity. A player's productivity can not be described by the blunt instrument of how many hits they got. |
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this is patently not true. The name of the game is scoring runs and preventing runs. The best way to score runs is to get on base and hit for power. Doing one without the other, while still valuable, is not as valuable as doing both. That's why you must weigh hits as not all hits are created equal. Ted Williams is better than Tony Gwynn or Boggs because he both got on base AND hit for power. Guys who only hit singles are never going to provide as much as guys who hit home runs. (all other things being equal of course) |
I always thought the name of the game is " don't make an out ".
But out with the old, in with the new! I still look at the basic stats, such as hits, runs, double, triples, hr's, rbi's , avg, and obp. That pretty much has allowed me to tell how good a player is. Now there's WAR, PMS, PAWS, and H2O. I need to get caught up and with the times!!! And I haven't seen anyone placing Clemente and Ichiro in the " same group ", other than they both have 3000 hits. People doing that are ignorant, without knowledge about the game of baseball. |
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i would take a 1 for 4 with a homer than a 2 for 4 with 2 singles every day of the week.......again total bases does take in account all of those walks as well...... let the ichiro countdown to 4000 begin! |
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Agree on all points. 200 hits a year for 15 years. Playing 15 years is an accomplishment, then averaging 200 hits per 500 some to 600 at bats. It's about endurance and perserverance as much as athletic ability. |
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Why would anyone celebrate total bases? You brought up Chili Davis I guess to insinuate he has something over Ichiro just because he has more total bases. Isn't it obvious to you who the better player was? It seems pretty obvious to me who's better. A player can have four or five peak seasons and rack up total bases, then stink for another 10 seasons. What good is that?
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by the way mickey vernon is currently number 100 in hits....yes i think chili davis was a better hitter than he was...chili was in 5 all star teams and was also rookie of the year..he also hit 28 home runs and hit .292 in 1986 and did not not make the all star team..he had other non all star seaons where he hit 30 homers. in 1997 ..he also in 1993 had 27 homers and over 100 rbis and didnt make the all star team.... chili davis far exceeded having 4 or 5 peak seasons.....you need to look at the stats... we arent talking about defense..we are just talking about hitting.. the man had 2380 hits and 350 home runs...and only number 100 all time in total bases.... Number 30 of all time in total bases is Andre Dawson by the way, is he a terrible player? I guess because he only have 2774 hits he is not elite like a 3000 hit guy in ichiro...my argument is he did have over 4500 total bases, anything over 4500 total bases should be more celebrated than 3000 hits that are primarily singles |
So you think Chili Davis and Mickey Vernon and Andre Dawson were all better hitters than Ichiro?
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i think Andrew Dawson is very close correct for the 10 prime years...nobody wants ichiro or dawsnon when he is 40 years old or 39....for the prime years its very close... Dawson did obtain 10 allstar/top 25 mvp finishes and won many gold gloves (defense doesnt matter but just saying he wasnt always a bad knees guy)......he also lost a lot of at bats because he was in the NL where the pitcher makes more outs than a DH does in the AL... The fact that it is so close is my point..you hear nothing about total bases but there is a countdown for hits.. |
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I would take Ichiro over Thome for the top of the order. The only way I take Thome is if I have others just as good as getting on base and he is an upgrade over my middle of the lineup guys. Ichiro is also a good fielder. Thome is not. |
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plus thome is 39th not 30th.....apples to oranges.....zach wheat is number 39 in hits..and is from a whole other era.... i not saying 3000 isnt a small feat...i just think its over celebrated versus total bases which there is ZERO celebration reggie jackson was 86th in hits but 27 in total bases....total bases is a more of a true measure of the great hitter he was.. |
No one celebrates total bases because of the group of mediocre players were able to total a lot of bases. It's as simple as that. Harold Baines has more total bases than Mickey Mantle. Who was better?
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PACKS - That kind of sums it up. ...
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Baines isnt top 30 in total bases....he 41st.. David Ortiz is 40th incidentally..' anyone one accomplishment doesnt mean you are a 'better' player... but you guys keeping coming up with unfair examples Bill Buckner is number 64 all time in hits..is he the 64th greatest player of all time...id rather have Baines than him Who in the top 30 of total bases is mediocre? |
We aren't playing a game. You are the one who is using the list to decide how good players are, not me. So I would never say something like Ichiro is better than Ruth because of where he is on a list.
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then you go and compare Baines with Mantle etc....thats a game..i can do the same thing.....i can also take a top 30 on base guy and show how hes better than a 100th best total hit guy. The oppposite was argued (comparing chili davis to ichiro) ..whats the point of that as well... Andre Dawson is a lot different than Chili Davis and Andre Dawson is number 30 in total bases and Ichiro is 30th in total hits, yet you guys brought up Chili Davis? Thats a game.. where are all these mediocre top 30 total base guys ? |
You brought up Chili Davis in your first post.
Andre Dawson is not an all time great, he is a very borderline HOFer and he is number 30. Rafael Palmeiro, noted cheater and non-HOFer, is number 11. Dave Winfield, who everyone can agree was a great player, is not an all time great either. He is number 14. The list is not indicative of how great a player was. |
[QUOTE=packs;1569674]You brought up Chili Davis in your first post.
Andre Dawson is not an all time great, he is a very borderline HOFer and he is number 30. Rafael Palmeiro, noted cheater and non-HOFer, is number 11. Dave Winfield, who everyone can agree was a great player, is not an all time great either. He is number 14. I brought up Chili Davis as coming in 100th......and the counterargument was to compare him to hit leader Ichiro (30th ) and not Vernon (100th)...to argue that is a game......why not compare 100th with 100th.....to argue otherwise is a game.... Dawson is in the HOF .is he mediocre.. i dont think any of those names are mediocre players... Winfield is also top 30 in hits as well as Palmeiro ...so any attack on them for total bases applies to them in total hits as well.....there was a huge countdown for 3000 hits for Palmeiro and Winfield.... and zero countdown for total bases... so the best you could come up with as mediocre on base guys in the top 30....are 2 guys with 3000 hits and a Hall of Famer....man those guys suck (or mediocre) |
What would you have them count down to? 4,787th base? What a thrilling proposal.
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4000 is ok or 4500.....ichiro isnt far from 4000, hes at 3875, 39 more and he passes chili davis for 100th of all time... plus if need 2...you can get a double for that...or if 4 away a home run...more exciting than a slap single off the pitcher's leg Lou Boudreau who is a HOFer actually finished with exactly 2500 total bases.... |
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wOBA: .350 Chili Davis career wRC+ : 118 wOBA: .354 Mickey Vernon career wRC+: 115 wOBA: .362 Ichiro career wRC+ : 105 wOBA: .330 so yes, all the hitters you mentioned were better at hitting than ICHIRO |
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Well, for starters, we aren't talking about defense but hitting. as far as who would be a better lead off man? ichiro career OBP : .357 Thome career OBP : .402 Thome is so much better a hitter than Ichiro it's not even close, his wRC+ of 145 and wOBA of .405 is elite level, Ichiro is just a tad above avg for two reasons, he wasn't as good at getting on base nor was he as good hitting for power. Another thing to consider about the 3000 hit club is that it doesn't consider walks either. Thome hits + walks = 4076 , Isolated Power? .278 Ichiro hits + walks = 3620, ISO? .091 Ichiro was 5% above league avg for his career and this demonstrates how 3000 hits doesn't make one an elite hitter, he wasn't an elite hitter for his career, just slightly above avg because power is important. NOW, that being said, he was a quality player because of his total game of slightly above avg hitting, elite defense and elite baserunning, but his bat alone was not elite. |
So Ichiro leads the league in hits 5 years in a row, collects 200 hits 10 seasons in a row, sets the major league record for single season hits, leads the league in hitting twice, hits 350 or higher 4 times, but he's not better than Chili Davis and he's only a slight above average hitter.
Okay. |
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But shallow batting average is just that.. Walks are as good as hits. People that fall in love with .325 also fall in love with 3000 hits. Ill take a guy hitting .270 with 30 homers and 350 total bases over a .350 hitter with zero power and 30 steals with 250 total bases any day of the weak no matter how many 200 hit seasons he gets or batting titles.... Martin Prado is close to winning a batting title in the NL, hes not even a top 30 hitter if that in the NL.....batting titles dont mean that much in terms of someone being an 'elite' player unless there are other stats to back it up.. |
Well I would say Ichiro IS an elite player and in his prime comparable to Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs. He was not Chili Davis, nor was he a league average player in the box or slightly better than league average.
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Mickey Vernon was 100th in total hits, i think Andrew Dawson was a lot better than Mickey Vernon.. You can be elite at what you do but still not translate into run production....the best pinch hitter in the world for example can only do so much and would never make the Hall of Fame.. Ichiro was great for getting hits.. but hes not even top 100 in total bases partly because he was in Japan but thats how it is.. Plus Ichiro is going to pass Chili Davis in all likelihood this year so no point for me to compare, by the way Joe Dimaggio is 97th on the all time total bases list. (only 2200 or so hits because in military for 3 years) I think Joe D. was a pretty good player if you want to compare them.. so basically someone 97th of all time in total bases compares well to number 30 of all time hits... Also interesting that Ichiro is exactly #100 in runs right now and guess who he just passed? You guessed it Andre Dawson. So they scored basically the same amount of runs and Dawson blows him away with power. You can't argue about how many seasons they each play in this argument, because tallying 3000 hits is all about counting up stats....tons of guys didnt get to 3000 hits due to lack of seasons but it is what is. total bases translates just as well or not better than total hits...i dont know why its not celebrated at least 1/100th as much as hits. |
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Also 3000 hits is a very big deal. |
I don't know why whenever someone does something great they have to be immediately compared to other greats and the whole "well yeah, but was he better than so-and-so" argument has to come up. There are so many factors aside from talent than make any such debate an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Over the course of a 20-year MLB career players are going to be asked to do different things. A leadoff hitter's job isn't the same as #3 hitter, or a #7 hitter. Additionally, the strategies involved have evolved over the years and managers ask their players to be more specialized in certain aspects of the game. The game itself has changed dramatically over the years. Comparing Ichiro's performance to Babe Ruth's is like comparing the performance of a Ferrari to a Model-T. It wasn't that long ago that if a pitcher hit 95 on the radar gun it made headlines. Now every journeyman reliever in MLB throws 95. The pitching Ruth faced was soft-pitch compared to today's game. I maintain, while the Golden Age players were great for their day, and certainly among the best players in their peer group, that Ty Cobb would wet his pants if he had to face Aroldis Chapman. Expansion is another factor. The greats of yesteryear played when there were what, 8 teams in each league? There's twice that now. When Joe D. had his 56-game hitting streak, he faced a total of 54 different pitchers. By comparison, Jackie Bradley Jr. faced 65 pitchers in his 29-game streak this year. Specialization of pitching had made it much more tasking on hitters of today. The who was better debate can never be answered by stats alone because they are dependant on so many other factors. Can't we just agree that Ichiro is a fantastic ballplayer? That he accomplished something only 30 players have done in the history of the game? That's like .002% of the players who have ever played, so yes, I would consider it a big deal, and IMHO it's kind of silly to even question that. Just my two cents. |
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There are lots of categories someone can be top 30 in but not great You can be top thirty in steals (currently Herman Long and number 16 is otis nixon) which doesnt mean its a big deal for example...... i think we are looking at the company you are in for those top 30 not trying to be silly, i just saying its silly to not honor someone with 4000 total bases as right now we do ZERO but for hits its a HUUUGE deal for 3000...when i have proven that top 30 in total bases have the same or better caliber players as top 30 hit guys... and no chili davis was not in the top 30 of total bases |
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I know many of you still cling to batting average , but the truth is that it is a pretty worthless statistic. It doesn't tell us much at all about hitter production because it ignores walks and it ignores the types of hits a player gets. Time to evolve with the game folks or get left behind. We have better, newer, more accurate statistics these days, and teams use these numbers as well. It's the scientific expansion of baseball. |
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Players get put in the lineup based on their skills, managers dn't just hapdazardly put a guy somewhere and force him to alter his game that wuld be stupid. Ichiro hit leadoff, but he hit what he hit. He is 5% above avg hitter for his career, and he would have done that hitting anywhere in the lineup. (not to mention that we compare players based on their production relative to their peers and to history as an entire, Babe Ruth didn't face the splitter sure, but he also only faced 21-30 starting pitchers in the league instead of 150 in a season we have now) |
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there is another poster on this forum braves4ever..that is also making valid points but yet your beef is just with me..... Comparing someone 100th Chili Davis in ( total bases )n something to someone that is 30th, Ichiro in( hits), to make the point how great the person that came in 30th is may work against a wooden indian i guess...... someone also said the top 30 total base guys would have a bunch of mediocre players in it because they only needed 5 good years.. compared to 3000 hit guys but when i called them out of who all those medicore guys would be all he could provide were 2 guys who also had 3000 hits and HOFerAndre Dawson... |
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Your post here depicts all of my points. This is my thread that I started, why do you feel the need to be annoying and call me names. Brave4ever also posted things against 3000 hits and you fine with him. The fact i have to put the language on my b/s/t threads is because of YOU interfering with my b/s/t and you troll all my posts. How come i dont feel the need to go on your threads that you start and criticize you and you call you names. What have i done that is arrogant. Noone else on any thread does anything to be criticized? What was so wrong about the T206 Speaker b/s/t thread..whats your problem with it exactly? I also noticed you trolled a Ruth #53 thread that now says 'delete' after my comments, so you took the time to troll that thread which is a B/S/T thread by the way http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...66#post1570266 You are calling me an arrogant prick even though you are the one that trolls my threads (which i dont do to you) and have been warned already from Leon on your behavior on b/s/t. Whats so bad about a thread talking about 3000 hits and total bases. Its about baseball. I guess that warrants name calling towards me.... I just posted something on the thread talking about dealer wives, quick go and troll that thread and say something negative about me, you dont want to miss it, there may be another thread or two as well, you may want to jump on there and call me names too, assuming you keep them up and dont delete them. Also your posts have no substance about the issues at hand, its always that im an idiot or jerk. You can always just 'block' me, i dont have to block you because i dont wake up in the morning with the need to troll your posts...the only posts i see from you are when you are trolling mine.. You are always quick to stir the pot....for example the current mantle b/s/t listing, CMIZE thought 80k was more than fair for the Mantle and took the time to criticize me for it...i said nothing negative on the card... http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...=224494&page=3 |
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the ruth wasnt my thread and i asked the poster who Wanted to buy the card, what price range would he pay...i asked that first. Take a look. He didnt answer yet. So I asked him again. It was not a 'FS': For Sale listing by me as the card is in my personal collection but if someone wants to buy it, i could sell it potentially. If it was a For Sale listing by me i would have a price for sure. So that was your big perry mason moment? In addition, i did show a past sale of a PSA 4 of the same card. I know you like to compare a PSA 8 OC with a past sale of PSA 8 and im unbelievable! I guess you agreed with everything else i posted. Oh and yeah your response didnt come off as arrogant either, you are such a straight shooter.. You also claim you dont try to stir the pot, this thread is about 3000 hits versus total bases by the way. . |
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Thanks CMIZE i changed it to Mays.... Please post SMR next to all of your listings (for the ones not OC as I do not think there is SMR for them unless want to reduce the grade by 2) or if you need help i can assist you. If you think thats lame, then you are describing what you did on the Mays b/s/t thread. Thanks
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Anyway you can post the last word if your post is the last post on the thread. Im sure I will see your nonsense when trolling me on other threads so we can go back and forth on there if Leon allows you too. |
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The lady doth protest too much, methinks |
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sorry, 3000 hits doesn't mean jack. It just doesn't. you can stomp your feet and whine until you turn blue and it doesn't change a thing. Your viewpoint is simply antiquated and wrong and based on a fundamental misunderstanding of baseball. (which, isn't really your fault, bad information was preached as gospel by lot's of so called "experts" for a long time, but we evolve, we learn we understand more and more now than ever before, and 3000 hits ,in and of itself, simply isn't an indicator of production. hitting 5% above avg isn't all that great.) |
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I guess I viewed the question as a comparison, as in is 3000 hits a bigger deal than say 500 hrs or 300 wins. I'm going to refer my list below to the "marginal 3000 hit hofers", like say a biggio. Here is why I think it is a big deal. Most if not all with 3000 hits have:
1. Longevity and health 2. Plate discipline with two strikes 3. A very good eye or terrific hand eye coordination 4. Good on base and high runs scored numbers 5. Great hit and run possibilities 6. Extending innings to roll over lineups Players like Craig biggio increased the success rates of power hitters like Bagwell. I will concede that some of this is more national league specific, but I am more impressed with a 3000 hit guy than a 500 hr guy, all other things being equal. |
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It's really not that hard to get 200 hits a season if you bat leadoff, and stay healthy. And, to his credit, Ichiro did that just that--stay healthy--for more than a decade to start his career. He also had some real good seasons, average wise. But let's be clear about two things. One, between 2001 and 2010, the "200 hit season streak", he averaged a whopping 734 plate appearances a season. And Ichiro doesn't walk, well, at all. 620 walks in 10,335 plate appearances is pretty piss poor. His .314 lifetime batting average is outstanding. But, comparatively, his lifetime OBP, for a future Hall of Famer, is quite low at .357. It's driven almost entirely by his average. So, he got a ton of official at bats with which to get those 200 hits. In fact, he averaged 678 at bats a season between 2001-2010. With 678 at bats, you don't even have to hit .300 to get 200 hits. In fact, if you hit .295, you'll get 200 hits on the dot.
Ichiro hit only .303 in 2005. That was his fifth season in the Majors, and the fifth in a row he'd get 200 hits. Know how many players, since 1901, have hit .303 and gotten 200 hits? Three, including Ichiro. And the last time it happened was 76 years ago. 2005-Ichiro Suzuki, 206 hits, 679 at bats, .303 AVG 1930-Taylor Douthit, 201 hits, 664 at bats, .303 AVG 1940-Doc Cramer, 200 hits, 661 at bats, .303 AVG 99.999% of the time, the run would have ended right there, and this "200 hit season streak" talk would be a distant memory. The only reason the streak continued was because of the sheer number of times he came to the plate. Secondly, all he does is hit singles. He had 262 hits in 2004, and 225 of those hits were singles. 24 doubles, 5 triples, 8 home runs. How does a guy that fast only have 29 doubles and triples among 262 hits? Hand-eye coordination is one thing. And it's certainly hard to hit at the Major League level. Hitting the curve might be the hardest thing to do in professional sports. But it is infinitely easier to hit for high average when you're just dinking the ball into the outfield. When you're not hitting for power, you can shorten your swing. This allows slightly more time for the hitter to pick up the pitch. And of all the hitters with 3,000 career hits, Ichiro has, by a wide margin, the fewest extra base hits. 556 extra base hits, 2,444 singles. As has been mentioned earlier, his career OPS + is only 105. He's 5% above the average Major League hitter for his career because he provides virtually no power. In fact, he's lucky he got to 3,000 hits at all. Between 2011 and 2015, the last five seasons, his OPS + has been 85--15% below Major League average. He's been worth 3.8 bWAR (3.6 fWAR). That's about 0.7 fWAR a season; basically, a fringe replacement level player. I like Ichiro a lot. Great guy, and a fantastic pure hitter. But all the hyperbole I've been reading, like "he's the greatest hitter of this generation", is making me absolutely nuts. That's patently false. Too many guys have hit for average AND power, and have had a better OBP in the process. Ichiro is a great base stealer, and a real good (but not as great as some believe) fielder. But his dearth of power hurts his all-time ranking. He's a Hall of Famer, and will get in quickly (first year of eligibility, likely, because of his popularity). But he's just not on the level of the all-time greats, and to suggest he is is disingenuous. |
Who is more valuable? A player who hits .314 with a .700 OPS, or a hitter who hits .297 with a .950 OPS?
Power matters. There is more to hitting a baseball than batting average. Ichiro has no power to speak of, and his ability to get on base, beyond hitting singles, is sorely lacking. That's why he's only 5% above average. OPS + factors in OBP and SLG, and adjusts for ballpark factors. Ichiro hit .314 (.3136). Hank Greenberg, right below him on the all-time average leader board, hit .314 (.3135). Ichiro had 3,878 total bases in 9,573 at bats. A .405 SLG. Hank Greenberg had 3,142 total bases in 5,193 at bats. A .605 SLG. Greenberg had the same average, lifetime, but brought incredible power to his game. And a home run always trumps a single. That's not all. Ichiro walked 620 times in 10,339 plate appearances. He has a .357 OBP career. Greenberg walked 852 times, or 232 times more in 4,241 fewer plate appearances (6,098 PAs total). His career OBP was .412. Ichiro's career .762 OPS is only 5% above league average for his career. Meanwhile, Greenberg's 1.017 OPS is 58% better than league average for his career. Two .314 career hitters. Ichrio with a career 60.0 WAR (58.1 fWAR) in 2,455 games played. Greenberg with a career 57.5 WAR (61.1 fWAR) in 1,394 games played. Those WAR metrics take everything into consideration-hitting for power and average, OBP, speed, fielding. Who would you rather have? Quote:
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correct 'Stace, hits just because they are hits doesnt make you an all time great cause you can hit .295 and get 200 hits. Total bases accounts for power and walks which Ichiro does neither.
To have 3000 hits yet not have 4000 total bases really says something in terms of lack of power and getting walks. I appreciate your use of real numbers. |
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Walks are the most overrated stat in baseball. The goal of the game is to score runs. A walk only scores a run when the bases are loaded, which is rare. A hit scores the runner from 3rd almost every time, from 2nd most of the time and from 1st a lot of the time on extra base hits. This even totally ignores the strategy of walking a guy with 1b open and 1 out to set up the double play or pitching around a hitter with 2 outs to get out a weaker hitter. I would rather my star hit a pitch out of the strike zone than allowing himself to be pitched around. Give me a guy with 3000 hits over a guy with a bunch meaningless walks. WAR is pretty much worthless. It over values walks. The values for fielding are random. Certain positions are over valued and others are under valued. Baseball reference even completely changed how they calculated it a few years ago. Fangraphics has their own system which varies from BR. |
Couple of interesting stats for a guy who apparently is only better than 5 percent of all major leaguers and is just some slappy dinky hitter:
Ichiro has led the league in intentional walks 3 times Ichiro has more intentional walks in his 16 seasons than A-rod does in his 22. Ichiro's offensive WAR is nearly 10 points higher than Jose Bautista's, even with Joey Bats having a 132 RC+. |
I don't mind the idea of using total bases as a preferred metric. If we are talking lead off hitters one could make the argument that on base percentage is more important than either. My main issue with total bases is that the steroid era skewed the validity of comparative analysis because of the home run party. I'm more impressed with say Carl Yastrzemski total base numbers from the late 1960's than any total base numbers from the 90's.
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There was another poster that talked about walks not meaning much compared to hits because you can drive in runs with hits. I agree with that. However it was already assumed the total base guys drive in more runs that then the ichiro type 3000 hit guys so the walks was just an icing on the cake and not a main part of the argument Basically, i just not a big fan of 'participation awards' If you play long enough you are going to get a certain amount of slap hits even into your 40s. I would contend a replacement level player from AAA who played 23 years in the big leagues would get close to 3000 hits but nowhere near 4500 total bases... Yes ichiro did it in far less, However we are going by totals not by how many years when doing a 3000 hit countdown. There is no hits per game countdown..... |
Well factor into your perspective that only about 1 percent of all major leaguers have careers spanning 20 or more seasons.
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