Ken Goldin Video on State of the Hobby
 

Interesting video to watch - https://www.instagram.com/tv/CPUgCP5...cc9FXStlTjfNRE

Cliff's Notes: Tons of new money has come into the hobby ... and tons more new money will continue to come into the hobby.

yawn

Kudos for Ken in running a wildly successful auction house. One I have purchased from and consigned to. Clearly leading the charge in the market.

But asking a guy who runs the leading auction house how the market is faring is a bit like emails I get from real estate agents. Things are always amazing, it's always the time to buy, it's always the time to sell, and even when things are clearly in the shitter, it's REALLY the time to buy or sell. In fact, probably never been a better time.

Who gives a shit what some auctioneer says. Has nothing to do with me enjoying a card in my hand.

The state of the hobby is reflected in my collection because that's the only hobby action I care about.

For the record, my collection continues to grow because of my own interest in it and not anyone else's.

I'll put his predictions on the shelf next to Dow 36,000, which in 1999 predicted the DJIA would reach 36,000 by 2002. It fell to 7,300 that year, and even its all-time high of 35,000 is still short of the mark.

I'm still waiting for my Don West Baseball Extravaganza Blowout purchase from the 1990's to regain it's value...
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Eerily the same..people and hype

Maybe. Then again, it feels to me like we've dropped pretty substantially in the last couple of months from what either were giddy numbers or manipulated numbers or some of each.

Ken is articulate and enthusiastic and might be one of those guys who could sell sand to a beach but I wouldn't take it as gospel.

This is a nice video that Ken uploaded, however, he is making a mistake by using his past experiences in order to predict the future of the hobby. He states that he has been in the hobby since 1978 and how he has seen the market crash around ten times. He talks about the stock market crash, the subprime mortgage crisis, etc. However, we're dealing with a completely different animal here. For the first time ever, millions and millions of people around the globe were stuck at home and were not allowed to do anything. No travel, no restaurants, no strip clubs - nothing. Never before in my life have I seen $2,000 cards go up to $60,000 US in a few months. I don't care what any of these athletes will do in the future or whose records they will break or who will have a documentary made about him. If you're somebody who is buying cards at these absurd prices, then you are going to get nailed, period.

lol!

Spot on. This was 2016 on roids. So many collectors had a fear of missing out so they ponied up and are now down 50% and declining on lots of stuff.

Do not underestimate the temporary power of FOMO. On the other hand, do not overestimate its staying power.

The more things change...

Here's the state of the hobby.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/22449097676...p2047675.l2557

Compare to two on Jan. 31 in Goldin at 738K each.

Only a drop of 557K or whatever.

Let's spin this one, shall we?

Or did we (some of we) just get fooled yet again by sales talk, manipulation, and fraud?

They couldn't even shill it higher!

They didn't need to. Probably dumped a bunch of them at 400-600.

And my guess is these will come down even more.

How has this site not had a thread about this?

https://youtu.be/CPiALa0CIMc

God D@mn! I'd hate to be one of the two that paid 738K in Jan. right now.



.

I would like to be one, I am guessing they bought them in order to create a false price to sell their inventory of others for much higher than they otherwise could have. Just a guess of course. Assuming they actually bought them, that is, which I'm willing to do.

Hilarious!

Are you suggesting there were two people who did this at the same time in the same auction? Or are you saying you'd like to be one of them because that is something that you would've done and you wish you had been one of the smart guys who did it? :confused::confused::confused:

I am suggesting your reaction to feel badly for the winner or winners may be wrong.

You said you'd like to have been one of the buyers so I was just trying to find out why.

It's true I may be wrong in feeling bad for the buyers, but I still do and think they got screwed.



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It was rhetorical, a contrast to you saying you would hate to be them.
I could be wrong too, but I guess they made out just fine.

Yup
 

Putting aside for the moment a good likelihood that there was price manipulation of some sort with these -

Current PSA 10 population = 318
Current PSA 9 population = 2787
Total current PSA population = 21,791

The highest sale as of January 2020 (1.5 years ago) was under 40K

There have been 61 PSA 10 sales (according to PSA auction database) since January 2020 (I did not look for repeat sales on the same certs)

There would in theory need to be 319 people willing to pay "market" price to maintain a particular value - I suspect we will see this card come down considerably more.

Howard yeah it's going to keep falling towards its "natural" level I think. A lot of folks out there who drastically overpaid, I think, believing the world was somehow very different now. We've seen this film before.

in talking to long time hobby friend(s) the last year or so while watching this crazy run up on many cards...the fleer jordan rookie was the one card mentioned the most as so common the prices would most definitely come plummeting back to earth.

With all the big $$$$$$ that has supposedly entered the hobby in the last year...investor athletes...mark cuban...the goldin tv deal, etc...it will be interesting to see what happens to the hobby in the next few years. One thing for sure...to me...is the window has closed atleast for now on the cazy easy money in the hobby...and there will be bunches of pissed off bag holders in the future who went crazy over modern...common cards.

Bars lol!

I feel like investors in certain action houses from Dec-March may have pushed many cards to their limits hoping suckers came in and out bid them, if they didn’t they bought back the cards by splitting the cost amongst each other, often relisting them or fractionalizing them. Many bought into this Bs and believed the Uber inflated numbers as real sales remember think Rickey Henderson Rook Jordan Rookie many more. A raising tide raises all boats, only if you sold, did any of you guys get these numbers for your cards ?? Highly unlikely. It has been my belief these investors made their monies on the under cards same exact card a grade or two lower.

That was excruciatingly painful to watch.

Allow me to respond:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZBKFoeDKJo

w…t…f?

Haha - love it!

I made it about 35 seconds before I had to shut it off.

Gotta love PWCC and its 3300 shipping to Canada for that Item. I thought the usual 45 shipping for a 10 dolalr card from them was bad....

Or you could let them lock it up for you in their vault for no shipping lol:rolleyes:

34 more than I did.

I want a Jordan but it was painfully obvious the prices weren’t sustainable. I’m pretty sure the money being spent wasn’t coming out of the pockets of long time collectors either.

They’re supposed to be making a Last Dance style series for Jeter. Enterprising hobby vets may want to start buying SPs and signed rookies now.

Anyone else notice the card/listing has now been removed? (at least for me)
Truthfully, I don't ever recall a listing being removed so soon but maybe it's nothing? :confused:

Yeah I thought they stayed up for 90 days or something. Maybe Brentsy has wondrous magical powers.

Golly...

He is talking about his industry... not about my hobby.

He's talking about making money on cards... I like collecting cards from players of days gone by, making money on them isn't important.

He wants new money buying cards, and then more new money buying cards and memorabilia, so everything is always costing more and more.

And he seems to think that if he says something twice, that it's more believable. OR true. It is more believable. It is true. He is telling his truth, he told it twice. Twice!

It's nuts. Pardon me while I have a sip of bottled water.

Wow. That is something else. I do t know what to say.

There's only one thing to say.

Ken Godin, Ken Godin, Hey, look at dem cards dat he hodin...

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Seems suspiciously quick to me, but then again, based on PWCC's flawless rep, I am likely just over thinking things? :D

I've seen that happen before, but thought that it happens when the sale is then cancelled after the fact.


The winner and the seller agree to cancel the sale for whatever reason. Then it also disappears from history.

This Garbage is as Sleazy as a Used Car Salesman!!!

It has been vanished from ebay and PWCC's site however PSA logged it in:

https://www.psacard.com/auctionprice...98018093662774. Also showing in VCP and the buyer's id is j***a.

Hes awfully bold

Claimng they were sold


'til the house of cards starts foldin'

Deleted, not worth the bother

Matt Landry
As a company we do not make it a habit to respond to every comment on various forum message boards, however this is an out of line statement, surprised you would make such a public claim.
Please note the following
1. the 2 Jordan PSA 10s sold in January were purchased by 2 different, extremely well known wealthy US businessmen. Both cards still reside in each of their collections, both of which are 8 figure collections. We wish we could disclose the winners, but unless they do themselves we take client confidentiality seriously.
2. Neither of the 2 individuals are shareholders or investors in Goldin Auctions.
3. Both transactions were quickly paid for.

There have been 58 sales of Jordan 10s according to VCP since Jan 2020, at which time and for the LONGEST time, this was a 40K card. The breakdown of the 58 sales is as follows:

ebay seller manontherock 2
REA 3
Probstein123 4
Single Sales by individual ebay sellers and auction houses 7
Heritage 8
PWCC or PWCC Vault 12 (excluding the example that just sold for 180K which is now gone from VCP)
Goldin 22

The fundamentals just were never there to me for this card in a PSA 10 to sell in the $700,000 Range. Now they’re selling under 300,000.

I’ve been saying this for months I don’t care what anyone says many sales in Jan-March were Fantasy.

It all felt manufactured/manipulated to me. It is not a 700K card nor is it a 300K card, imo. The 86 Jordan was not the only card which was selling for many multiples of what it had been in the previous year and most of those cards are coming back down to Earth too. I have to suspect there are some extraordinary paper losses mid June 2021 for the average collector.

Maybe some people entered into the situation expecting to take a large short term loss to offset other short term gains?

Agree it’s been my belief The Money Was Made on the Under Cards......Jordan’s a year or two later 87’s 88’s 89’s ect, onto, stickers,and mostly lower grades 7,8, and 9’s

Thanks for the response Ken. I deleted my original post and apologize.

See goldin auctions. I believe they had 36 86 fleer jordans, including stickers, in ONE auction. Who would think that was a good idea?

Use common sense

Why would wealthy, successful, presumably sophisticated businessmen pay sums for a card completely out of line with historical values and indeed any value to date? The card isn't even close to rare even in a 10, what were they thinking, or maybe in context it was chump change and they didn't care? It does seem a lot of people leave their senses and sophistication and critical thinking behind when it comes to cards.

I’m sure they were “advised” by someone with a reason to boost the values…

I think it could be as easy as some billionaires son seeing an MJ rookie on TikToc or something and telling the dad to buy it. Or any of a million other scenarios where folks who are smart don't make great decisions sometimes.
There are a lot of people with a lot of money nowadays, I just wish I was one of them. I think some gamblers gambled and lost and some made money. Not my gig....but to each their own.

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If that happened, it would be far from the first time. I recall the guy a couple of years back who would ask Brent how high he should bid on cards Brent was selling. People just check their life skills and common sense at the door.

What a Crock Of Sh&t.

1984-ish.

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While it would be pretty hard to argue against bidding shenanigans happening in some cases...the market has also legitimately risen in tandem.

PSA 7 Julius Erving rookies are still selling for $1,800 and they aren't rare at all. I've been looking to buy them back after I sold my basketball stuff in one of the the 'run ups' before 2009. I thought I did great back then...lol. Win some lose some.

I don't know if I will ever buy that card back now, or the Alcindor rookie which is insanely high priced in every grade, and on multiple venues with legit sellers too. I don't know if a real widespread drop will ever come back. There will always be isolated crazy price swings....and there will always be some auctions that slip through the cracks somehow like there always have been.

If there is a widespread group eating the fees or price manipulating on PSA 6 Julius Erving rookies for $1,000 a pop...cut this guy a break...I would like one back at the old prices :)

It will take a seismic society altering event to stop the overall tide at this point. Its summer and everyone is out of the house now...and all those cards I want back haven't moved much at all in price.

:oWe must be looking at different cards. I am seeing "seismic" price drops.

The cards you mention are both softening. Be patient. Also a large difference between $1800 on a card you feel should be worth $600 and $700,000 on a card many feel is worth $40k.

I agree those Jordan 10's were crazy sale prices. They probably got caught up in the hysteria on those.

But I would argue that that hysteria (among others in other sports) is what lifted all the boats.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Bowman....m46890.l49286


I questioned this one big time.

poof?

Hysterical crock regarding that ebay “glitch.” Does anyone really believe that? Guess some out there figured the final price was too low and now want a mulligan, so the price doesn’t make all those prior “sales” look like the puerile manipulation plays they were. And this collector doesn’t believe that AH post defending those Jordan sales for a second. These hustlers out there must think we all are uneducated or gullible or both. That said, I do believe many folks got swept up in the mania.

Maybe the card or slab was bad......idk

damn that was fast!

It shows up on VCP along with the eBay app on my phone.

It was a 1952 Bowman SGC 7 Mantle That sold for $42,600 2/14/21 PWCC

According to the PSA website, one of the PSA 10s is in the number one registry set which belongs to someone who may be wealthy by some standards but is certainly not famous. I suppose it's possible he consigned it and still hasn't removed it from his registry set.

TWO billionaires and they both just happened to settle on the same way out of whack price? Sure.

There have been so many confirmed shenanigans and lies in this hobby that I think we're conditioned to being skeptical of almost anything almost anyone says.