Money in the hobby
 

While sitting there Sunday night watching REA, it was just crazy watching the amount of money that was being spent left and right. I know that is relative, but prices on sooo many cards have just soared. How many $100,000 cards now exist? How many collections exceed $250,000 now? Billions of dollars in the "industry" as its coined on another thread.

So my question/point is this...

If money = fraudsters, and I would say this is true in all walks of life, isn't it just a matter of time before this whole thing collapses when the cockroaches are exposed? I have heard so many guys from the 70s and 80s talk about how all these high grade pre war cards just weren't around back then...back when the hobby was at its peak mind you. But now? How many crisp t206s Cobbs and CJ Jacksons really survived all this time?

We also seem to have a different vibe to the "hobby" now than years ago. I hear the term investment so much now and it seemed like that word use to be taboo. So much new money in the vintage card game...

It seems to me like its a perfect storm with all this. So much money seems like the potential for fraud would escalate tremendously. It also seems like there are more problems now than I ever remember and eventually these problems will lead people away from cards. I guess its just the amount now that makes me so nervous...my gut is starting to bother me about how expensive everything is getting. What would happen if PSA was found to be corrupt tomorrow and theyre name became worthless?

I know, collect what you like and don't spend more than you have, blah, blah blah. Its not about that, I don't need my cards to be able to retire or anything. But the whole thing makes me somewhat uncomfortable and I started collecting in 1985.

I don't know about the term "investment" being used more. Honestly the whole overprinting thing was created by speculators. I remember "investing" in a lot of 800 Tommy Gregg rookies in 1988 and tons of others. I was fortunate to have also been picking up vintage. I don't think the bubble will burst on the cards most folks are investing in like they did on the cards of the 80s and 90s because the supply really isn't there. Of course virtually everyone isn't collecting any more.

I think there are some cards that sell for big dollars that have thin markets...I remember someone saying years ago that the market for cards from the late 1800s was very profitable but only a few people were playing. It may be more so now.

Third party authenticating is a fluid concept. You now see people talking about old vs. new PSA slabs, REA had multiple autograph authenticators, with Steve Grad now at Beckett, and James Spence on his own, and SGC it's own brand. I don't know off the top of my head who is at PSA/DNA anymore. To think in 10 years that all of this will be status quo is obviously not a bet anyone would make. So if you are "investing" in a baseball card with the expectation of that status quo, you should just be eyes wide open about this stuff:

Your goods are only as valuable as the market credibility of the authenticator at the time of sale.

I do think this is one reason why REA double-certified a lot of its autographs. Take this signed T206 Marquard, which was encapsulated as authentic by SGC.

http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/...e?itemid=44742

Note how they didn't just rely on SGC's word. They also provided an Auction LOA from James Spence/JSA, and pre-certification by Steve Grad and Brian Sobrero/Beckett Authentication.
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I was thinking the same thing Todd. Everyone was "investing" in the 1980's. It was kind of like the housing bubble, everyone thought things would just keep going up forever. The card market seems to ebb and flow over the years, and some cards are up while others are down, so it makes it a very difficult market to invest in unless you really know what you are doing.

Alright, I see the 80s thing. Buying 500 Bo Jackson rookies, yeah, I could have worded that differently. So my post would be in strict regards to pre war cards.

I am not financially equipped to chase pricey vintage cards but also shake my head at some of the prices these auctions realize. Then again when I tool up and down the Garden State Parkway in my Ford and get passed by literally hundreds of automobiles priced at $100k or so I say different people like to do different things with their cash - so be it.

My worry on the whole vintage card front is the increasing sophistication level of technology. I really believe that the day is not far off when a counterfeit of - name your iconic card - will be produced and be undetectable even by the most "trusted" authorities at grading companies. What happens if that scenario eventuates?

What happens when they counterfeit money as well. The one thing going on cards from 100+ years ago is the paper stock i assume will be tough but I am not a professional so who knows..

Whenever I see one of these crisp cards graded an authentic, I can't help but think how it was trimmed to deceive and how many others like it made it past the graders. Beaters are the best.

I believe that the technology is already available and has probably been used already. You have guys that can rebuild cards and make it seamless. Guys that can doctor colors and have them be flawless also. So what is stopping them from creating one? Could easily do a common in high grade since the big guys would be scrutinized.

I addressed that concern in a SABR post:

My guess is a lot of entombed high grade cards have been altered, or 'prepped,' but that's a different issue.

The only answer I have to this is yes.

The term "investment" to me is still taboo and a house of cards...but that's my opinion. I would like big dollar cards, but even if I felt that was budgetary I would stay away in this market. It reminds me too much of when I steadfastly refused to buy a home in 2004. Eventually there is no room for growth as the demand is outpaced by cost and the buyers are shut out.

I think a select group are grabbing the big cards now anticipating further growth but this is in my belief a very finite crowd. If those (on the high estimate for me) 20 or 30 big buyers stop trying to swap or horde among themselves what happens to the growth?

That's what I thought too, but it is far from the truth. Restorers can take fibers, analyze them and get the identical compounds that were originally used in the card stock and just make "new" stock and do whatever they want to with it. Micro-weave of these "parts" are also possible so creating a new card would seem kinda easy...

I think "outside" money is pushing the prices to influence rising prices. A few million bucks spread here and there is nothing. Probably like shooting fish in a barrel, where many of us (not me) view the last record price as actual value. Bottom line is we are adults paying big money for cardboard produced for children. It use to be you were embarrassed to tell adult friends you collected baseball cards. Now we can say we invest in cards which makes us feel grown up.
I collect and still have fun doing it. Sooner or later most collectors will be gone leaving "money" guys passing cards back and forth.

Or the signed beckett 40 PB wagner which JSA wouldn't pass

This is a pure guess from my experience the high priced vintage market (say items that sell for $25k+) have a handful of different buyers chasing them.

*Those with the means to accumulate anything they want at any price.
*Those that overextend themselves financially for their hobby.
*Those that move from one item to another, buying and selling as a break even throughout the years.
*Those that bought in so early 30-40 years ago they can now move their items to mold their collection in what ever shape they want.
*Those that accumulate then minimize. Building quantity and moving for quality in a repeated process.

No.

If you wanted, you could radiometric date a baseball card. The most commonly known form of radiometric dating is carbon dating, but they test different chemicals to detect items from different time periods. For example, they do lead dating for paintings. They have confirmed the date of famous paintings (Vermeers, Rembrandts, etc) and identified forgeries by lead dating the paint. Radiometric dating is based on the known half-life of chemicals and is explained in the following article: (The Science of Forgery Detection).

But, it's all much easier than that. At the printing level, it's virtually impossible to counterfeit a known baseball card that both looks good at the naked eye level and at the microscopic level. And, further, there are microscopy tests that identify when cards were made from the same printing plate-- so a card that wasn't made from the original printing plate would be easily identified.

I think many of those who are worried about future undetectable counterfeits are applying Doctor Who theories to the real world.

Ok,, maybe I got a little a head of myself as reproducing those micro printing marks would be pretty tough and art restorers wouldn't be able to replicate that as part of their job description. But the same compounds are available today as were 100 years ago, they would still be able to reproduce the stock.

Where is the printing plate material located?

My belief is that even though detection technology is readily available, it is not economically sensible for most pieces. In other words, I'm not gonna spend $1000 to verify a $500 card. At some point it would, but that market is likely very small. BTW, I, of course, used up made up numbers for the example. I have no idea what the costs would be, but you get the idea.

Counterfeits are easy to identify, because not only to they have to use the original printing technology, but there are tens and tens of things and details they have to exactly duplicate. A forgery of a brand new (made up/fantasy) item could be different, because it doesn't have to perfectly match anything and there's no original for direct comparison.

The future perfect counterfeit of a T206 Wagner or Plank is of no concern to me, because I don't think it can happen. When I think of a hard to identify as fake future forgery, it would be of something like an '1800s' ad poster or trade card, where they forger used the original lithography techniques to make it.

But, beyond that they usually look bad to the seasoned collector, i can say that 99.9% of counterfeits, reprints and forgeries of Pre-WWI cards and baseball memorabilia are definitely identified because they are printed with the wrong (modern) printing.

This reminds me of how we like conspiracy theories or CSI super technical explanations. In fact, simple, straightforward anomalies are the easiest to detect. Thanks.

A lot of simple, easy to look for qualities helps identify counterfeits. For just one example, one of the hardest things to duplicate on a reprint or counterfeit is the original gloss.

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

No doubt fraud follows money around, but I imagine most of the perception that these [NM-MT pre-war] cards just weren't around in the 70s and 80s is because people were looking at all of the cards that could fit on the tables in a hotel ballroom or the counter of a 500 square foot card shop as opposed to all of the cards that can fit on the internet. I'm sure it was different for some of you guys, but I think I saw maybe one T206 a year in the 80s, compared to hundreds of thousands of Topps, Donruss, and Fleer cards. Now I can easily view 1000 or more T206s every day. If 0.1% of them survived in NM or better condition into the 80s then I would probably have encountered none of them at that time (and I didn't) but would see them quite often now (and I do).

I can't think of a good analogy, but modern and antique printing technology are mutually exclusive, just as the words modern and antique are mutually exclusive.

You identify and date the printing technology by looking at the printing at the microscopic level, not the naked eye level. So a digital printing technology (say a laser printer) can make a great reproduction at the naked eye level, but is identified as modern printing under the microscope.

"accumulate then minimize. Building quantity and moving for quality in a repeated process"

Steve, can I use that with my wife? It sounds so much better than "buying a lot of stuff I like"?

PSA's type collection?
 

While we're talking about authentication, here's something I've been wondering about:

Does PSA have the world's greatest type collection? You can check that a card's printing is period with a microscope, but to check to see if the card stock is right for a particular issue you'd need to compare it to an example that you know belongs to that set. So if you send them something from a super-obscure set, does the grader have access to a known-authentic example from that set that he can compare your card to?

For the conspiracy theorists, there was a Doctor Who episode where a time-travelling chameleonic alien went back in time as Leonardo da Vinci in order to make multiple Mona Lisas for the future.

Hopefully my first use of the quote function is correct.

I linked into your SABR article. Fascinating and obviously very informed. Light years ahead of my own level of expertise. I have no quibble with any of the points you made. I was, however, drawn to your use of the non-linear concept in your opening. That is where my concern lies in the future regarding counterfeiting, in this case specifically sports cards, but in other areas as well.

While I don't refer to the current technological advances as exponential they are not linear. I don't think it's an unrealistic stretch to visualize a time in the near future when the WTF moment hits and the cat is out of the bag as far as the sudden ineffectiveness of traditional counter fraud measures.

Pleasure to read your article.

As others have said, the printing technologies are different now. Back then, they used lithographic printing techniques and now it's more laser printing. Therefore, under magnification, you can see the print dots are different. A counterfeiter would need to bring back lithographic printing which is much easier said than done. In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge. Both of these things put together make it extremely hard to counterfeit prewar cards, which is why I doubt there are virtually any that are out there. In addition, many of the veterans of the hobby do not slab their cards, and keep their collection raw. Therefore, they are used to feeling the texture of paper stock and the look of the ink, they'd catch most fakes quickly. I think people see the Black Swamp or Lucky 7 find, and they are concerned about loads of fake prewar cards being reprinted, and I just don't think that is happening.

It's much easier for counterfeiters to focus on the old style TPG slabs and flips which are much simpler to replicate. Then you could put a fake card inside one of those slabs or an altered or overgraded genuine card.

And of course, restoring, altering, trimmed cards are a problem in the hobby. I don't doubt that. However, I don't see the absolute population of the cards increasing due to counterfeiting techniques.

About the comment that in the 70s/80s, these cards just weren't seen, I think a lot of that is due to the internet now. Back then, you had no idea what was out there, and now you can just go to ebay and google the card, and you can see many instances of it immediately. Folks are more likely now to know what they have and not throw it out since they can quickly check the internet and know it is actually worth $$$$. Also with all of the auctions always going on, it may seem like there is a Ruth rookie on auction all of the time. However, the total population is still only around 100-200, which is really not a lot when you consider there are over 300 million people in the US, and even if it's only the 1%'ers that can afford these cards, that's still a lot more people than cards out there.

Anyway, I'm not saying the card market can't collapse, because it definitely can even for rare prewar cards. You can look at some of the card prices from 2007/08, and there are still some cards that have not returned to those prices that they sold back then. However, if the overall card market does collapse, I think it'd more be due to macroeconomic effects of the economy such as if we go into another strong recession as opposed to a TPG like PSA going under. Because even if the slab is now worthless, people still want the card inside it.

A couple of caveats: I make no comment on high grade cards or vintage/modern cards which have populations in the thousands or much higher. I also can't understand the current market prices there at all, so can't say where those will go.

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

I have Always Referred to David's Knowledge of Ink Processing & Photography. His explanation of radiometric & carbon dating is sound teaching.
And even if it were possible ta somehow get by or around this major issue,
You still have the Papar Problem!

Ovar the Years From What I have found, We Simply Don't Know How the Papar was produced.
To think that someone in todays techno world could easily figure this out is Truly an immense project.
And iN Reality... No one would spend the Time, Effort & Money ta do So!
Only to Come uP Short of Victory!!!

I have looked at and discuss the material that is comprised within T206's, E90-1's & T205's wit a friend of mine(Who's Family own's one of the Largest Printin Co.'s in New York, His Great Grand Father start'd the Co. RiGHT Around 1901), And wit All His Knowledge, antique museum material, along wit his family past antique equipment, The whole bunch of'em are Clueless to how the papar was process'd/made!

Sure there are those wit well educated theory's...
Howevar, has Anyone replicated their theory inta a product & proved it can be done?

Kinda like Buildin a Viking longship or even replicatin their steel...
The World's Best have tried and fail'd!

LookiN at the Side view of a T206, under a 50x optic can be Truly FasinatiN...
If You havn't tried it as of yet, Giv'er a Go... :)

Because the flip is the commodity, not the card. Flips sell, and nobody scrutinizes what's in the holder very much, at certain strata anyhow. I've seen cards posted here that I would bet my life are altered, but many just see the flip and ooh and aah.

"What we said of it, became a part of what it is." -- Wallace Stevens.

All of the things you talk about involve human decisions/opinions. Take the human out of the equation and you won't have those issues. It's coming.........

Gary - This is what I propose and can be done:

In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge.

Why not just recreate the stock? Todays stock only glows b/c of its compounds. How hard would it be to recreate edges and corners? This is standard restoration in other fields. Its just accepted and disclosed.

My while point is this: with the ever increasing prices, we ill see ever increasing fraud and attempts to deceive. At what point do people just say enough is enough? The amounts of money are just rather large.

Barry, I completely see what you are saying here, and I agree with a lot of it. However, there are a lot of different ways that I could answer this question. However, to focus on the cards that are going for 6 figures, I'll put it this way. The people who are buying these cards go to shows or events like the PSA luncheons and see other collectors like them, and they trust that other rich people like them (e.g., Ken Kendrick, etc) are buying cards, so they know that it's not just them in this market. When they sell their cards, they get paid real cash, real money with no restrictions like you can't sell for 2 years. They see the card prices going up based upon VCP, past auction sales, or other ways that are easily accessible. And which cards are going up the fastest? The ones with the highest number on the flips, which makes perfect sense to them because rich people collect the highest quality collectibles.

Card doctoring has been rampant for the two decades since I got back into collecting. In my opinion, as witnessed by the continued strength of the market, not many people care.

I understand herd mentality, and everyone assumes the card they buy will be just as desirable when it comes time to sell. But I still have trouble with how much faith is put on that label.

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

And Peter S. is correct that the label, and not the card, is the commodity (and I love Wallace Stevens).

For 10 points Barry name the poem, no cheating.

IMHO, Barry (and good to hear from you, by the way), a lot of these guys paying huge, enormous premiums for "9's" vs "8's" and "10's" vs "9's" are quite literally paying for the holder/flip inside. There simply is no way that the difference in the quality of the card can match the price differential, so what are they getting for their money? A holder with a piece of paper in it, for which they have paid tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars more than they would have for a beautiful card graded just one level lower. Far better to invest in something like the 1907 Seamless Steel Ty Cobb rookie Orlando Rodriguez of this board won in the REA auction ($24,000?), where both grading services have slabbed a total of four examples, and both Orly and I believe that that number is not going to increase much at all over the next few decades. Same with cards like the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth (11 total graded?), the Dietsche Fielding Pose and Wolverine News Cobb rookies, etc., etc.

I have studied the coin hobby extensively, as it has followed essentially the same path as that of cards, only with a 120 year head start. In that context, where there is a vast difference in the price of a coin, for example, in Mint State 67 vs Mint State 64 or 63, but little substantive difference of any real note between the quality of the two, and the item at issue is not all that rare, the values of the higher numerically graded items have tended to be cyclical, ebbing and flowing with the ingress and egress of investor types. On the other hand, truly rare and significant items tend to keep appreciating in virtually linear fashion (although those gaining the most in value over time among that group are those in better condition). And while on the subject, coins have also been the target of many counterfeiting attempts, with very little real success over the years. Items made through different methods always tend to leave different footprints, so I don't think we will be seeing a few hundred undetectable, newly manufactured Baltimore News Ruths in the next decade, century or even millenium! Same case scenario with Orly's Seamless Steel Cobb rookie (and presumably my own Wolverine Portrait and Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobbs).

Regards,

Larry

Some people put 100 percent certainty in something with 15 percent margin of error. But, really, their concern is financial value. The owner may be well aware of the margin of error in grading and the possibility of alterations, but all that matters is the financial value-- and if others invest in the label, then the label is what matters.

Barry, I don't disagree with you at all in regards to the flips, but for collectibles, people often defer to these so called experts in those fields even when buying extremely expensive things. When someone says that a wine receives a certain rating or the vintage that year was particularly excellent, do most of us have any idea what they are talking about? When some "expert" says this modern art painting is part of the new avant garde in the field right now and is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, do those people who buy those paintings really have any idea what they are buying? And many collectors may come from collecting coins, where these same issues have been rehashed over and over again. I'm not saying I agree with it but just trying to explain how we got here.

Barry- the word "ego" comes to mind in all this. It's not aesthetics. It's not a love of baseball history. It's not rekindling childhood dreams. It's just "ego."

none of this matters unless TPG's want to find fakes. And based on some previous threads, it appears some TPG's are enabling forgeries. PSA can't even tell if a card has been chemically treated for gosh sakes. Let me clarify, PSA may not care that a card has been chemically treated; or counterfeited.

I have thought about this a lot. First, I think 1950s-1960s is exploding because a ton of baby boomers are aging and capturing their history. I am much younger but still get excited opening a 1986 Donruss pack and hitting a worthless Canseco. So in that scenario a rising tide lifts all boats.

Vintage: perhaps there is some foreign laundering going on? I learned a ton about Macau and getting onshore money offshore. Throw into that some other country money that needs to be parked and that could explain some of the rise in value.

That said, some of these auctions from late 2015/early 2016 prices look a little inflated. We will see, but if they are inflated and you pay 10% to 15% to launder money, that's ok, right?

You are seeing foreign money that needs a home in a ton of urban real estate markets on the high end. Why not baseball cards if they meet an ultimate need which may not be a collector need?

Agree 100%. Ever increasing prices raised the same concerns in the coin market, and truly rare, significant items are still appreciating in value (check some of the better coin books issued in the last decade or less, giving real auction values for truly rare coins sold during that time period). The same has held true in cars, where there are many examples of rare and significant vehicles passing through the 7-figure "barrier" as if it was made of very soft butter! Don't believe it? How about a 1967 Corvette, selling for more than $3 million (1967 L-88 427 model; 20 made). A 1971 Hemi Cuda convertible for $2 million plus (11 or 12 in existence). 1962 Ferrari 250 GT's selling well into 8 figures. Very limited production Jaguar XKE lightweights, produced exclusively for racing (somewhere around 12 made, and selling for around $7 million, if memory serves correctly). Fakes have also frequently been attempted in both coins and cards, with little success. Q. David Bowers, an elite expert in the coin field, has been asked how high prices can go, and his answer has usually referred to what some works of art have sold and are selling for ($100 million plus). Perhaps not so unrealistic in the somewhat distant future even in the card hobby, when you consider that the 1903 E107 Mathewson in the REA auction, which went for $144,000, was a $900- $1000 item in 1995--thus increasing in value around 150 times in just over 20 years. Amazing, or just rare and significant to the extreme in an ever growing field?

Tremendously rising prices simply make some of us nervous (as well perhaps they should, as many will inevitably be priced out of the market for the best of the best items--learn to identify those which are yet undervalued now, as John J. Pittman did in coins, eventually putting together a $40 million collection, even though never able to afford the great rarities, or "trophy" coins!), but it's just hobby growth for the most part (pure speculator/"investor" types aside). I have an early to mid '90's REA auction catalog which is just several pages of newsprint in black and white on yellow stock (an insert to SCD, as I recall). Compare that to the most recent edition, with 700+ pages of the best glossy stock available. That, my fellow collectors, simply signifies growth, and growth on a very large scale. If that growth is largely attributable to true collectors who actually really like buying pieces of the history of the game, it will not only be sustainable but continue.

I guess you can see that I am most definitively not a "the sky is falling" type.

Highest regards,

Larry

For what it's worth, the ones paying vast sums for the Mint and Gem Mint HOF rookies at least have PSA's insurance policy that will reimburse them if the card is found to a forgery or altered, presuming the card was truly graded by PSA and the slab is still intact (not fake flip/switched out card/fake holder).
Plus, if you really have a PSA 9 Aaron RC, are you going to remove it from the holder and send it in again raw? If not, it doesn't matter as the PSA flip is staying with the card. And if you for some reason think the card could become a 10, you're going to leave it with a min grade of 9, so PSA doesn't reconsider the grade they've already given it.

Gary, exactly. It can't be the cards, because the minute differences in the corners (even assuming the cards are actually graded accurately and consistently and that's a huge assumption) are not even visible to most eyes without a loupe.

Is it "The Emperor of Ice Cream"? It's just a guess.

"when you consider that the 1903 E107 Mathewson in the REA auction, which went for $144,000, was a $900- $1000 item in 1995--thus increasing in value around 150 times in just over ....."

Larry-I'm not sure where you are getting your 1995 number from. In the mid-1990s I won a beat to hell Mathewson E107 in a David Festberg auction for $2000. When I got it I found that the condition was even worse than described and I called David to say I was returning it. His response? No problem--the under bidder was Larry Fritsch and he'll take it.

Depending on the set, the "plate" would be the easy part. Lithographic stones are still available for art printers, and there are enough vintage ones out there that I wouldn't say they're hard to find.

Stuff produced after the change to aluminum might be marginally harder, but there isn't much difference between the 30's and 80's.


Steve B

The printers then did things in ways that are different than what is commonly done today. None of it is anything we can't do now. The problem is the fine details. And forging a truly perfect replica of a T206 would require some serious skill in a number of areas. While society has generally trended away from generalists to specialists, the skills even back then were specialized.

You'd need to -

Be an expert on the materials used in several areas, and be able to use modern equipment to identify exactly what you need to make.

Be an expert on paper and how it's made.
Be able to replicate on a small scale what was done on a large scale. (Papermill vs handmade paper. )
Create the paper pulp - same sort of fibers, same fiber lengths and quality.
Create the sizing-
Create the coating for the front.

The closest paper I've found is comic book backing boards, which are too thick, but will pass most ordinary examinations.
But that paper isn't really the same.

Next, be an expert on the inks.
Figure out from spectrographic analysis what the carrier/hardener was and what the pigments were.
Then obtain those.
Not as easy as it seems, some in 1910 were probably early synthetic dyes, which may not be made anymore.
So you need to be a chemist as well to recreate those.

Be an expert printer.
Litho stones, how to lay them out, then you need a vintage press....

Recreate the original art.
Pretty difficult.
You need an original to work from to get it exact.

And after all that, the dating will never show it up as old.

Could a card be made that would pass a cursory examination by someone who really knew cards? Yes. Could one be made undetectable? No.

The closest I've ever seen was shown to me in maybe 82-83. A very nice 51 Mantle. Nicer than any 51 Bowman I'd ever seen. The dealer I hung out at handed it to me and asked what I thought. No opinion expressed either way. After a few minutes maybe 5-10 I gave it back and said it was a wonderful fake but I couldn't explain why I knew it was fake other than it just seemed "wrong" . That was his opinion as well, and that of I think at least 5 other dealers.
Today I could probably figure out why it seemed wrong.


Steve B

Postcard from the Volcano

Don't know that one...now I have to spend the whole weekend reading Wallace Stevens. :)

Kind of messing up the timelines by responding as I go through the thread. Sorry, can't think of a better way.

Knowing people in the printing business where it's a place that goes back to 1901 is pretty cool.

But it goes right to what I said in another post.
They really KNOW printing. But they don't make paper, so it's a mystery.

The paper people know how the paper was made. Cranes has a small museum in Dalton that shows the process that came before machine made paper.
The machine process isn't much different than making paper by hand, except for how it's more precise, and done on a very large scale.
I'm sure a mill would make you whatever you wanted - IF you bought enough. I sort of don't want to know what a minimum run of special paper is. I've had special stuff made a couple times, and finding a place that will make say 500 lbs /a few hundred feet of a special size metal tube is difficult. And that's just a small redraw mill, not an actual tubing mill.

So duplicating it would mean replicating the process on a small scale that's typically done by a very large machine. (The one that makes our money paper- if my Jr High memory is correct- is about 200 Ft long if not more.)
That's really not easy.

Steve B

Not trying to push any political buttons, but we are a country of immense wealth disparity. I spend a decent amount of time down the Jersey shore, in an area that was devastated by Hurricane Sandy. Every grandma and grandpa bungalow that was destroyed by the storm has been replaced by a mansion 5 times larger. With a pool in the backyard. And it isn't a station wagon in the driveway but 2 BMWs. My wife constantly says to me "are there really that many people with so much money." Yes, there are. At least within driving distance of Wall Street. Some of these people spend $50,000 on a watch. Some have wine cellars with a half a million dollars of wine. Some spend hundreds of thousands buying racehorses. To spend $300,000 on a baseball card thinking (a) its really cool and (b) it very likely will appreciate or at least hold its value doesn't seem like a crazy idea at all. If you can say this is a 1 of 1 or a 1 of 10 of anything, I think it's a fine investment -- if you are rich and diversified. I have no doubt that a good scandal would hit the industry hard. And then it would come back. The racing industry has a scandal every few months and rich people still spend $5 million or more on untested, unproved race horses.

It's not the Mantle cards of the Satchel Paiges or the Babe Ruths that have me scratching my head. But people spending $50,000 on an unopened pack. Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.

Hi Barry,

It may have been touched on but I think the people who are buying cards that cost in excess of 100K don't even notice a dip in the account balance after paying for that card and they have a belief that PSA is too big to fail.

Greg

Hi Greg,
I don't doubt that some people have so much money that a few hundred thousand won't make a dent, and I also see how there are those who will pay anything to get the best. That's the easy part of the equation. What I can't fathom is how something so imprecise, and so subjective, as grading is accepted with so much blind faith. I guess PSA has done a remarkable job of building their product. That's the best answer so far.

From previous posters I see where making a T206 counterfeit would be near impossible due to changes in printing and especially paper. What about more recent cards? 52 Mantle? Gretsky/Jordan/Rose rookies?

Rich dudes comparing pee-pee's. Nothing new about that. Same as faster cars, bigger boats or trophy wives.

As to the first point, the last 30 years have been a great experiment in economics. When you cut taxes repeatedly and create other loopholes for the benefit of extremely wealthy people, they were supposed to put that money to productive use in business and grow everyone's wealth, but the reality is that they buy more toys instead. Supposedly high end cards (I say supposedly because there are so many really bad altered prewar cards in high end PSA holders) are just another rich boys' toy.

I do want to thank everyone who has contributed to this thread, there have been some very well though-out responses and posts that have been rather respectful and I have enjoyed this talk.

One final word on the reproduction of vintage paper...I don't know, I went to a restoration studio where CHUNKS of paintings and art that were created 200-300 years were missing. The art restorers created his own stock, filled in the voids and NOTHING glowed under a black light. To my untrained eye, it looked perfect...bb card stock can be reproduced w/o detection of tpgs.

This thread does need a card, this would be my favorite WaJo and no, its not mine.

spending
 

I thinking spending thousands of dollars on baseball cards is stupid thing to do

( and this coming from a long time passionate collector,who loves cards and the hobby)

I sometimes wish the whole baseball card business would go belly up/cards totally worthless/ bankrupt /useless

Then lets see whos left who really truly enjoys the " worthless cardboard photos" ..for what they are

No, they are wise investments. People are reinvesting their money to maintain and increase their financial position. It is no different than buying stocks, bonds, etc. If you don't think the average person is doing well, I would suggest you take a trip to Haiti or Afghanistan.

yes!

I don't understand that sentiment at all. If you enjoy collecting for whatever reason, why would other people's motives for what they are doing ruin it for you? Just do you own thing and be happy. Why would it irk you that certain high end cards that most of us aren't buying are soaring into the stratosphere. Just let it be. Everytime I go to to a Met game there are people sitting in $1000 seats. Whatever. I'm happy in a $100 seat. I'm happy wearing suits off the rack and some dudes will only wear custom made. Makes the world go round.

Exactly. "Just do you own thing and be happy," well said. Seems like there's a lot of bile and general bitterness at money out there.

When I'm looking at my cards by myself or with my son or my brothers or cousins who collect, I'm loving collecting and the game of baseball and the specific cards I've found and chosen for their specific attributes— I'm certainly not wasting my energy thinking about what some other dudes are buying or why they're buying it or for how much, or what's overgraded, or some hypothetical scam. And yes, I'd bet many collectors would still love their cards just the same if they were suddenly worth nothing. If we didn't open packs and collect as kids for money, I don't see why we'd do so now, since a big part of collecting is to reconnect with one's youth and stay young inside.

No bile. No bitterness towards money, people who have it (and I have my share). But as you said collecting for me is a reconnection to my youth and that is to the cardboard itself, not the monetary value. So, if all my cards lose their value, I'm ok, means I can buy more :). They aren't investments. They're something much more innocent.

Safety in numbers I suppose, Barry. So much money has been invested in graded material and continues to be spent. I look at every card I buy, regardless of what it costs...maybe because I feel I have to and because I can. Not everyone buying cards has the expertise to determine if their card is graded right so it is easier to defer to the "experts". I know I do not approach much of anything in my life, that way.

I think it's very possible to be in to cards for money and the love of the hobby.
When I was a kid in the 90s I lived to see the up arrow in the Beckett on cards I owned. So of course I hated to see the dreaded down arrows. I had dreams of my cards going up up up and me cashing in.

I also had cards that I just liked because of the image or the player. Most of what I said rings true today. I love to see my cards increase in value and hate it when they go down.

Now of late I've been buying 80s and 90s inserts. ( trying to buy a home ) so I've been taking it easy and I don't really care about the value but I'm still only buying cards I think are undervalued or rare for the era even.

Great choice in a thread relating to the incompetentcies of the grading companies!

heh heh heh...

And there are so many other third party experts out there involved in so many other areas of life. Buying a house, for instance, often includes multiple third party experts, such as realtors, assessors and inspectors. Many people consult the Kelley Blue Book (or similar publications) when buying a car. These type of experts, who help establish the condition and comparables of an item, are common in lots of places.

I do "get" the animosity towards TPGs, towards the money in the hobby, etc. but in the end, sports cards aren't just investments or tokens of our childhood or connections to the game, etc. Collecting cards (or whatever) is different things for different people, and perhaps many things for some, and that makes the hobby more nuanced and interesting, to me.

Steve, Dankz fir the discussion!

I was of the Same Mind Set!
Until They, Which Included a Gentlemen Who's Family had made their Papar
fir just about the same amount of time educated me.
(I guess my implications were in my head but didn't translate well inta my writings, "My Apologies Sir!)

I was Schooled in the process...
And Then was Told THaT Sum of the Process & Materials are Known
Howevar, The Expertise through the lack of Experience has been Lost.

The "What ta Use" is Sum What Known..
But the How, How Much & When ta Process them is Gone!

They concluded with Reproducing the Card Stock
Fir T206's, E90-1's & T205's Would be a NiGHTMare...

I Realize that there are many More Knowledgeable People witin the Papar Industry out there (And I'm Certainly Not one of them!) Wit more optimistic attitudes about Reproducin These Specific Card Stocks...

I just want ta add that Lost Arts are everywhere witin the History of Man
And from what I've found out this seems like a logical "Lost Art" ~

I Do Like Bein Correct...
I Just Very Rarely am! :)

Unless it has t do wit Electronic Theory ;)

While I like the safety of the entombment of the card and the fact that the condition is locked forever (in theory - deterioration from chemicals as the possible exception), if I had my choice I would have them all raw so I could enjoy them in binders and look at them on a daily basis. As it stands, it take front/back photocopies of the graded cards - usually the high value superstars - with a label that shoes the grade, registration number and SMR and put it back in the binder

However, I have had too many circumstances where I have had a raw card talked down When I am selling - Ex becomes VG - and then pumped up When I am buying EX becomes NM. Of course, even with the standardization and commoditization of the flip/slab, most don't want to pay more than 70-75% of the VCP amount so I am not sure how far we have come.

Therefore, I buy graded cards primarily to protect my spouse/family in the case something happens to me. As that way there is a cost basis to work off of for the big stuff.

Based upon my budget/discretionary income, I buy mostly 6's and 7's. I'd love to have 8's but I can't justify the 4x price of a 6 for the incremental visual appeal over a strong 6. But to those who can - God bless and more power to you.

A similar thread came up on the psa forums a few years ago with a supposed "buying group" manipulated some elements of the market.

People kind of dismissed my answer, but the reality of what I'm going to say doesnt go away. Assuming a US population of 400 million, the top .1% of incomes is still...400,000 people. Make it the top .01% and thats still 40,000 people. At the levels of income that would involve, youd only need a handful of interested collectors chasing cards to support a market for the top level cards.

I am wondering if where one lives really influences their thinking on this. For instance in Los Angeles, Burbank Sportscards was heavily supported being near Toluca Lake...one of the wealthiest parts of the nation...as well as several other nearby neighborhoods that were favored parts of the entertainment industry. South Bay Sportscards in Lomita, CA charges outrageous prices. They are also right next to Rolling Hills and Palos Verdes, CA...neighborhoods with some very high incomes.

The number of people in LA with crazy money(say either $1million plus annual income, or $20 million plus liquid worth) might be 10x higher than many entire states. And NY, SF, Chicago, and maybe a few other big cities.

How many lottery winners, how many lotto level sports contracts, how many entertainment people, very successful investors and businessmen?

I can say with certainty that if I hit the lottery, my baseball card budget would blow from $1,000 a year or so to 25-100x that depending on how much money I had. And if I wanted a certain card or set that was rare, you can bet I'd be in there bidding it up.

Point being that the number of collectors out there with huge money...enough to the point that thousands or more are relatively meaningless...Is very likely a decent size number. And I think a lot of people in the hobby don't understand that. And those that do understand are tight lipped because their business depends on it.

Good points John. I'd add that everything that goes into a nice lifestyle in Los Angeles has gotten out of hand due to the money sloshing around for playtime. Try going to a Dodgers game. Hundreds of dollars to sit on the field level anywhere near the plate. Or a concert. I just bought tickets to Green Day at the rose bowl. Nearly $200 for the back of the field. The lawn close to the stage was $450 a ticket.

As for my earlier comments on income disparity and tax policy, the response i got does not withstand scrutiny. An argument to averages is pointless because it weights the extremes. If you have a foot in a block of ice and a foot on fire then on average your feet are at a good temperature. The reality is that our economy has hollowed out to resemble a barbell with large extremes and an ever thinner middle. That's some third world banana republic stuff.

Oh, and cards aren't an investment. They are an illiquid asset with huge transactional costs at both entry and exit. If you want to bamboozle the wife with ROI talk to justify a trip to the National to hang out and party at the hotel bar I can totally respect that but don't expect me to buy into it. Maybe a Wagner is an investment but a vg T206 is a toy for boys. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I mean chicks dig guys who collect cards: look at all the women in the hotel bars in Chicago the first night of the National. So friendly. Gotta be the cards. Right?

For me at least as a dealer/collector, where the rubber meets the road, is when I am offered what seems to be an obscene amount of money for one of my treasures I swore I would never sell. But then after agonizing, I would take the wampum and move on. It seems these days gold trumps cardboard.

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

Everywhere in life it's "the good old days this" and "the good old days that". People who sold their homes in my neighborhood 20 years ago because they thought it was the top of the market were wrong. Very wrong. Yet when you meet them they will give you 10 reasons why they are happy they got out when they did. They were dead wrong and want to justify it somehow in their own minds.

Anyone who doesn't think high end graded cards can be an investment must have slept through the recent REA auction. And what's so hard about selling high quality cards? I have a friend who extended himself a decade ago and bought a card for $3800. Just sold it for over $60K. Sounds like a decent investment. I agree that not every card can be viewed as an investment, and most of them probably aren't, but if you don't believe the good stuff will appreciate more in value your kidding yourself.

The one point that people here ignore over and over and over is that the same well heeled buyer can be both a lover of baseball cards and baseball and be an investor in cards at the same time. Why is that so hard to grasp? The dentist driving a Ferrari can love cars his whole life just as much as the guy who buys spare parts and works in his garage every weekend reconditioning an old Mustang. Not mutually exclusive.

Nice write up, David. I am not a graded or raw collector and generally buy mid grade cards with great eye appeal (to me). I agree with a lot of your thoughts. Unless you are Bill Gates someone is always going to have more money than you. Collections are the same way. Just do what makes you happy. I appreciate seeing others collections and great cards too. The diversity of the hobby makes it interesting AS WELL as the amount of money. Take the money out and it does become less interesting to most. That all said, if the time and card are right, there is nothing wrong with a pointy cornered card...It seems the money just keeps rolling into the hobby.