Future HOFers
 

I am going to be selling maybe 20,000 signed cards 1990-2012. I want to pull out all potential future HOFers. Which players who played any years during that time period (or managed) have a good shot at the HOF. Of course Cabrera, Ichiro, Jeter. Thanks in advance for your input

Pujols. Rivera. Griffey.

Ortiz

I would go with Pujols, V Guerrero, Griffey Jr, Kershaw, F Hernandez, Thome, Trout & M Rivera.

Going way into the future I would say Trout, McCutchen and possibly Harper.

Beltre

Ortiz will have trouble making the Hall because of PEDs.

Greg

Trout, Kershaw, and (to a lesser extent) McCutchen are certainly on a HOF pace, but they're still early enough in their careers that they're more of a gamble. If they keep up what they've been doing for another 5-10 years, then they'll definitely be HOFers, but if their careers ended today, they wouldn't. Cabrera, Pujols, and Ichiro have done enough to be HOFers even if they retired today.

Guys who haven't been named yet:

Jorge Posada (eventually)
Ivan Rodriguez (probably)
Chipper Jones
Omar Vizquel (eventually)
Roy Halladay (maybe)
Buster Posey (might be the greatest catcher of all time one day)


A word to the wise re: Kershaw / Felix. I'd be very careful. Johan looked like a lock too after winning 2 CYs and 3 ERA titles. Things ended much differently than they started.

As a manager, Bruce Bochy (4 pennants and 3 World Series in 21 years, so far).

Still early on some on my list and some should be and or maybe one day (this list is just partial list keep in mind drugs off the field attitudes also play into HOF some may never get in PED I hope never get it, and probable most controversial list and some will argue but you asked potential)
Larry Walker
Don Mattingly
Sammy Sosa
Mark McGwire
Barry Bonds
Juan Gonzalez
Miguel cabrera
Derek Jeter
Albert Pujols
Dave Justice
Fred McGriff
Kenny Lofton
Clayton Kershaw
Andrew McCutchen
Buster Posey
Mike Trout
Kevin Millwood- Millwood was part of a pitching rotation which featured Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. In 1999 he was selected to his only All-Star Game and helped the Braves to the 1999 World Series and two seasons later the 2001 National League Championship Series. As a member of the Indians, his 2.86 ERA lead all American League pitchers,Millwood made his debut with the Atlanta Braves on July 14, 1997. A year later, he won 17 games. Millwood formed a part of the Braves' star pitching rotation, which also consisted of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. According to Nate Silver, the 1997 Braves starting rotation was the best in the history of baseball.[1] Millwood was traded by the Braves to the Philadelphia Phillies for catcher Johnny Estrada in order to cut their payroll in the midst of economic difficulties. He went 14-12 with his new team, including throwing a no-hitter against the San Francisco Giants on April 27 coming in the Phillies final season at the stadium.
Nick Markakis--Maybe not so much
Darryl Strawberry
Joe Mauer
Elvis Andrus-- I just like the way he plays plus he was the 2nd youngest to play MLB, I think he MIGHT get in the Texas Rangers HOF
Andruw Jones
George Springer
Justin Morneau
Pudge
Chipper
Ichiro
David Ortiz
Griffey JR
Mariano Rivera
Bryce Harper

I like the dark horses. Here are some more that could get in (particularly if Hall voters of the future are more into sabermetrics).

Kevin Brown
Dave Stieb
Chase Utley
Mike Mussina
Jeff Bagwell

Kevin Millwood!? Really?

Also wondering what you see in Elvis Andus or Nick Markakis.

Sabathia has imploded too.

Chipper, Bags, Jeff Kent, Piazza

Decent players, certainly not HoF.

Don't be shocked if at some point sooner than later the hall's voter's stand on PEDs moderates.

Markakis!? Really? Has what, 2 hr's?


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Has Markakis even made an All-Star Game?

Millwood???

Markakis has been a pretty decent player for a decade -- .291 lifetime BA, .788 OPS, a couple of Gold Gloves -- but there's no way he's a HOFer unless he turns into a major late bloomer and plays another 10-15 years.

This is the problem with the Hall of Fame...too many guys get in, All the sports should revamp the process, but most of this list you can tell the story of baseball without them.

Morneau, Springer, Andrus maybe in the Hall of above average

Jimmy Rollins

A huge potential that hasn't been mentioned is Paul Goldschmidt. Of course after 5 years isn't a sure shot, but he is on pace to have an outstanding career and getting better each year.

Seriously?

This sounds right to me, and I'd be surprised if Ortiz and Molina don't get in. Among the retired, Jeter, Jones, Halladay, and Rivera seem like sure things to me. There are others, like Beltran and Beltre, who pile up big HOF numbers and who might get the nod even though few have ever talked about them being THE player of the year. Then there is the whole generation of PED era all-stars who will probably get in, after a decent interval.

Long shot but I'd say Buehrle, Pierzynski, and Sale.

A guy who hasn't been mentioned, Andrew Jones. He has a lot better chance than most names people are throwing out. One of the 3 best defensive outfielders all time, with Clemente and Mays, plus a very good hitter in his prime.

If David Ortiz is a hofer, then so are Norm Cash, Fred McGriff, Will Clark and Keith Hernandez. The voters who are likely to over look his doping are going to look at his 49 war and see him as a poor man's Mark McGwire

Halladay had a phenomenal winning percentage but barely passed 200 wins with a relatively short career -- borderline I think. I just don't see Molina -- 100 HR in 12 years so far, .736 OPS, .284 BA. There is a whole host of catchers with stats like that, or better, that aren't in.

He had some nice years but with a .254 career BA, and 1900 hits, he isn't getting into any Hall of Fame. EDIT TO ADD I am a Red Sox fan but I agree about Ortiz -- in my opinion he is in that host of guys a step below, even without regard to the PED issue. McGriff as mentioned, Delgado comes to mind, maybe Giambi. He has some big enough looking numbers but they don't translate that well according to the Baseball Reference metrics. He is popular though.

Black Ink Batting - 16 (144), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 137 (122), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 138 (96), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 48 (94), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS First Base (33rd), 49.0 career WAR/33.3 7yr-peak WAR/41.1 JAWS

Fat Sloppy is a ROID user who got a pass and has a horrible attitude and thinks he's entitled to things.

If there's any ounce of justice left he shouldn't be in the HOF.

A guy who was headed for greatness but imploded after age 30 was Roy Oswalt. He had a phenomenal record after his first 8 years. (134-62)

Halladay may not have had the longevity as stated but I much prefer the stars like this who were at the top of the sport for a number of years over the lesser talented players who never get hurt and compile stats over time. Halladay would get my vote. He was a real throwback pitcher who completed games when no other pitchers did and put up stellar numbers in his day.

Mauer should get in based on what he did for 10 years as a catcher. Just needs to get some counting stats up, and not hit 260


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I'll take 5 years from a Koufax over a Phil niekro career any day.

A JONES has a higher WAR and JAWS than most of the names being thrown out. If you don't think he's a hofer, fine. Then so aren't 80-90% of the names being thrown out.

On that theory you should support Guidry? Fairly comparable stat line in terms of big seasons.

Yeah I would agree with you, many of the names mentioned are just not worthy.

I don't think Mauer will get in. He had some great years as an elite catcher but I don't think it was enough. People have already forgotten for the most part.

Just to jump in on the Halladay discussion. Guidry's career is not at all comparable. Guidry did not pitch at the height of the steroid era or enjoy the separation amongst pitchers that Halladay did. Halladay led the league in complete games and shutouts 4 times in the same season during his career. He was a different breed of pitcher in his time, and that makes him much better than Guidry.

I would agree Halladay was better, but Guidry had some fabulous seasons and I don't think the difference is as dramatic as you say.

Don Mattingly
Sammy Sosa
Mark McGwire
Barry Bonds
Juan Gonzalez
Dave Justice
Kenny Lofton
Buster Posey
Kevin Millwood-
Nick Markakis--Maybe not so much
Darryl Strawberry
Elvis Andrus--
Andruw Jones -------------Try Torii Hunter
George Springer
Justin Morneau
David Ortiz
Larry Walker
Clayton Kershaw ----------------------------As long as he stays in the National League
Andrew McCutchen
Miguel cabrera
Mike Trout
Derek Jeter
Albert Pujols
Pudge
Chipper
Joe Mauer
Ichiro
Griffey JR
Mariano Rivera
Bryce Harper
Fred McGriff



MY Added list;

Sale
Abreu
Baines
Thome
Raines

LONG STRETCH

A.J.
Buehrle
Konerko

Hard to predict until a player has 7 or 8 years in. I remember sorting through cards about 10 to 12 years ago and putting aside cards of players I thought might turn out to be great. Last year about 80% of those cards went into the commons bin. I think a few years ago there was a guy on this board making plans to go to Grady Sizemore's Cooperstown induction.

Tom I'm a Sox fan but boy did Sizemore sure have some bad luck. Had injuries not kept him sidelined so much we would be talking about one of the best Center Fielders of that era easily.

That's my point, Josh. Anything can happen in baseball.

Woulda coulda shoulda.

Chris Sale has 56 wins. Why are we even talking about him? Revisit in 5 years.

Then what about Harper, Springer, Trout, etc ?

My argument has been that it's much too early on those guys, see posts above.

Even if something happens to Trout and he for some reason goes down hill, I think he'd still hold a Don Mattingly-like stature in the hobby. I don't think the same goes for Harper or Kershaw though. And especially not Springer.

Preface this with saying I am in St. Louis.
The problem with the anti (Yadier) Molina camp is that, as with any catcher, you can't just look at offense. Molina has been the team captain since he joined the team in 2004.

Molina has is ranked 18 all time in putouts and the only active player ahead of him (Pierzynski) has 6 more years then him (the least amount of years ahead of him is 3 more seasons).

His total zone runs is ranked only second behind Ivan Rodriguez.

His caught stealing percentage leads the way buy 5.97% of the next active catcher.

He also may not have the most impressive offensive numbers, but they aren't shabby either.

This combined with the fact that he has a .328 BA in 21 World Series games he may have enough to push him over.

And he does this all as a FULL TIME catcher (Molina has the second most games as a Catcher again behind Pierzynsk), having only played 2 full games as a 1st baseman (after starting in 4 and playing in a total 32). Compare this to Posey (someone mentioned may be the best catcher) who has already started 132 games at 1B. Also Posey only has a dWAR of 5, with his best season topping out at 2 (Molina has a career dWAR of 20 with 5 seasons at 2 or higher).

Posey is a good offensive player, but I predict he will be moved to a full time 1B position to keep him playing as happens to most catchers with better offense than defense.

All this said I don't think this makes him a sure shot. I believe he needs a few more decent seasons to make it more clear that he deserves to be in the ranks of the other catcher greats, but he is certainly shown he has what it takes thus far.

So Bonds (Yes PEDs but who cares he was light years better than everyone else taking them) doesn't get in and Harold Baines does? If this happens The HOF has zero credit in my book. We should be talking who to take out not trying fit more guys in.

BTW I can't think of a single White Sox player who I think isn't in yet deserves to be. Maybe Raines but thats it.

His WAR is 30.5. Maybe if it was 40+ I could see a case. 50+ as a catcher and I would have him as a lock. Mauer is at 47.5 and people are questioning him. Posey is already at 28.1 and will sail by Molina. Even a few more good years leaves him well short.

I'm not a big WAR guy, I see a lot of problems with it. However when we are comparing players at the same position, I also see it's value. More and more HOF voters are going to look at advance metrics and use them in their process. Molina is a very good player, just not HOF worthy.

This goes back to my paragraph about full time catchers. Mauer hasn't played a game as a catcher since 2013. Posey is being groomed to move to 1st base, as this season he only has 73 CG behind the plate compared to Molina's 93 CG. This year Posey only has 721.2 innings compared to Molina's 984.1 innings thus far (where as Posey has only had one season that has even exceeded this number and they still have until Oct 4th). Posey is the better Offesive player, but that is why I believe he will be utilized more as a 1st baseman in the future and he will not be the best catcher as you stated.

Again, I know I am bias and I know it isn't a sure thing, but I wouldn't count him out as career catchers are rare and even rarer to maintain as the premier defensive catcher after 10 years.

Raines over Baines ???? Current Sox player not to be in yeah I did say those were stretches. What about Minoso ? Or Pierce ? Both stretches too :confused:

I'd never vote for Bonds sorry just my stand point on him as a person (how you handled the media counts even though it shouldn't see Jack Morris for that) and as a jealous PED user.

If you let PED users in McGwire should be a lock as well as Sosa. At least those guys were likable. And they both have the stats or should we say HR's to put them in.

Future HOFers
 

But the things he did for those years no catcher had ever done before.


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Admittedly I don't know a ton of the Metrics on Baines but I am in the "You judge players in the era they played" Category and I feel as though they should all get in just notate it as the "Steroid Era" like we have the "deadball era", etc.

So yes McGwire Palmeiro Sosa Bonds...I believe should get in.

Future HOFers
 

Idk, maybe because of almost 1,000 K's through his age 26 season. Certainly has the looks of getting to 3k.

Felix will be a HOF'ER, if healthy. He played on bad Mariners teams and doesn't have many wins. Gunna hold him back too? Pointless column is Wins.


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Would anyone consider these guys the best at their respective positions for 5-10 years? Probably not. Maddux "yes", Glavine "yes" Pedro "yes". Sale "not yet" Hernandez "no", Jack Morris "no" etc.

I think Sale will get there if he stays healthy. He's up there with Kershaw etc.

I'm biased but I like Sale and would take him over Kershaw Kershaw get's to face a pitcher at bat about 50 times a year and he also has done dung in the playoffs.

Also if he weren't on the Sox his record would be just a tad better. WE SUCK. Look at poor Quintana most ND's over the last 4 years in baseball.

I would say Sale and Felix are the best pitchers in the AL and 2/3 in all of baseball behind Kershaw for the past few years, so yes.

Sale seems to be competing every year for the strikeout title.


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Lots of potentials in that timeframe. One doesn't know how certain players will be viewed down the line / who else gets revealed as a PED guy. I'll stay within the current voting enviroment and stick with guys I feel will deserve to be in, vote or vet committee. Most will be 90's to mid 2k's players off the top of my head so I'll miss some guys. I'll leave the Posey's, Trout's, Mauer's to others :o

Mariano Rivera
Mike Piazza
Jim Thome
Larry Walker
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Mike Mussina
Lee Smith
Adrian Beltre
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Ken Griffey Jr
Trevor Hoffman
Fred McGriff
Ivan Rodriguez
Vladimir Guerrero
Chipper Jones
Scott Rolen
Andruw Jones
Omar Vizquel
Todd Helton
Carlos Delgado
Carlos Beltran
Albert Pujols

I've missed some names in there. When Clemens and Bonds are elected it likely opens up the gates a bit for some others like McGwire, Ortiz etc. I like players such as Torii Hunter, Jim Edmonds, Jorge Posada etc but I dunno. I see them getting the Alan Trammell - Dwight Evans style treatment myself. Curt Schilling , Roy Halladay are going to get close if not in IMO, similar to Jack Morris style ballots. Some of the new guys, Harper, Trout, etc. Who knows. You can have 4-5 top notch seasons then it can come crashing down quick (Don Mattingly). Jury is out IMO.

I'd love for Torii to just get a vote or two. So glad he's back home.


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He's got 220k's this year his career high is 226 he's being compared to Randy Johnson more and more lately and that makes me one happy Sox fan !!! If he can even come close to what Johnson did :D

I think he gets more than a vote or two ;)

He better!


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I like both guys and think they are dominant just want to see them do it for longer before I declare them HOFers.

But I do think regardless of league that Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher to come along in a while.

Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and King Felix are all in the Johan Santana / JR Richard boat right now. You can't call any of them a HOFer and none of them have the career to get them in today. Each of them could just as easily become a Johan or JR in the blink of an eye.

Remember Tim Lincecum? He's still pitching for the Giants, not that you would notice.

Future HOFers
 

Oh for sure! 100% agree. Was just saying they've been dominant for 5+ years or so (except Sale this is his 5th great season), but I'll feel a lot more comfortable with another 5-7+ solid years.

Oh yes, he's truly amazing. If he continues injury free, could be top-5 lefty.


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Doc Gooden. Roy Oswalt. CC Sabathia. The list goes on.

I don't think the PED users should get in, but you should probably hedge and keep them just in case.

I don't think I've seen these names yet:

Madison Bumgarner
Dale Murphy
Will Clark
Andy Pettite

Future HOFers
 

Pettite was a user.


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I know. Just saying if you start letting Bonds and Clemens get in, these others will probably follow. Not that I agree with it.

Oh, gotcha. Sorry, didn't know if you had known or not lol.


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Haven't seen Joey Votto mentioned yet. .955 career OPS, and he's having a nice bounce back year right now.

If we are mentioning PED guys, Ryan Braun has to be mentioned as a possibility if he keeps his numbers up.

I think Ortiz will have a little difficulty in the short run, after having tested positive for steroids in the initial 2003 testing (results of which were supposed to have remained confidential, but did not in many cases).

Collect him if you like him,

Larry

A very good bet there, I think. Exceptional hitting production for a third baseman, and great in the field.

Larry

I dunno. Yes to what you say, but on the other hand, one HR title, one hits title, no MVPs, only 4 all star selections, and who but a hardcore fan could even tell you where he played? EDIT TO ADD If he keeps going and gets to 3000 hits, then I think his odds vastly improve. If not, he may be Dave Parker.

Just a few comments here. Pudge Rodriguez had an immense degree of difficulty explaining to Detroit newspaper writers the diet he had followed in losing 28 pounds one off-season while he was with the Tigers (and with the weight went his power). Just coincidentally of course, the weight loss occurred after steroid testing came in. Should that matter be recalled and discussed when he becomes eligible for the ballot, it may well dampen his chances.

Chipper should be a sure-fire, first-ballot electee, unless I'm not aware of some PED taint.

Posey is a fabulous catcher, but will have trouble dislodging Berra, Campanella and Bench for the title of the greatest of all time, especially with the much-discussed shift to first base, and the fact that he never has had quite the HR power of the other three.

As to Kershaw, I'd never put money on pitchers as sure-bet HOF'ers until nearly the final tally is in. What they do best is get hurt and/or lose their effectiveness. Verlander, for example, pitched himself into the HOF in his twenties, and pitched himself back out (thus far) in his thirties. Another reason to be leery of Kershaw is the fact that much of his effectiveness is due to the trick/hitch delivery, and the fact that the ball seems to suddenly appear from behind his head. The latter worked for Jerod Weaver until his fastball dropped to mid-80's at best, and with respect to the former, hitters often get accustomed to freak deliveries. Kershaw has virtually the exact same stuff as Bumgarner: 93-95 mph fastball, good slider and curve. Both are very good pitchers, but IMHO, Kershaw to date has piled up the better stats due to the hitch/halt in his delivery, and the fact that he hides the ball better than the Giants' ace.

Just my two cents worth,

Larry

Larry they've had 8 years to get adjusted and he still has a 2.20 ERA.

I am for the great talent over a shorter span than the compilers (not talking about Halladay), and Guidry would certainly qualify under that. However, I think I'm also a bit of a tough grader for the HOF at the same time and feel it has gotten watered down with a lot of the inductees... I would agree in giving Halladay the edge over Guidry, and that's coming from a Yankees fan. I think Guidry comes up a bit short in the same way Mattingly does. They were really great for a while but I still feel as though some thresholds need to still be met (Sub 200 wins for Guidry). I don't think the arbitrary stat thresholds are an exact science though and I need to look at everyone's career as a whole and compare them to their contemporaries to accurately assess a player.

I just loved how Halladay in the PED era and pitch count/innings limit era, led the league/ or was near top in innings and complete games all the time.

He also didn't play on some of the greatest Jays teams and still ended with an excellent winning percentage.

More to the point, how does one accumulate 20,000 autographed cards?

This thread lost total credibility once the name Andruw Jones was thrown out. Is there a better example of a player who got paid and then gave up once he had a guaranteed big money contract?

I go by the Dale Murphy Rule. If a player is not more prominent and heralded in his own era than Murphy was in his, then his name shouldn't even be mentioned in HOF discussion. There are only a small handful of players active or recently retired who will make the Hall, and I'd definitely not promote any of the young crop of recent stars until they are 7-8 years in.