this is a prediction thread...not a running tally!

Re-read the first post, predicting time is long over.

Just checked Judge's Home vs. Road splits, and they are shockingly similar all across the board, for anybody concerned Judge is having this great season solely from benefiting from Yankee Stadiums cozy confines. If anything he's very slightly better on the road.

Out of curiosity I checked the splits for Roger Maris during 1961, and his Home/Road splits were also pretty identical.

Both of Judge's homers tied the game last night. 1st one in the 6th, 2nd one in the 8th, while the Yanks pulled it out in the 10th, thanks to Gleyber Torres's once every two games hit.

Yanks had 8 hits in 10 innings last night. Judge had 3 of them with 2 homers and a Walk and 3 runs scored to go along with it. Amazing run he's on.

I wonder the last time somebody has been on a run like this, with so little help from their team-mates.

....he would have homered in the 10th had they not walked him.

His base on balls are really starting to increase too I believe.....but should still get to 61.


Better not be a whimper of talk that Ohtani should get MVP, no way, no chance, any writer doesn't vote Judge, should be shot.

Well that might be a little harsh....

......maybe just pushed down a flight of stairs.


Judge is carrying the Yankees single-handedly into the Playoffs. And I can't stand the Yankees, but I know what is right.

I don't care what Ohtoni & Trout are doing in their garbage time meaningless games over on the West Coast. They folded during crunch time..........yet again.

Well said and amazing what he has done and even more amazing is that he is in the triple crown hunt with him being only .009 away on average

At this point I’d vote for Judge, but Ohtani is not far behind. It’s a lot easier for Ohtani to rack up value as a both ways player. They definitely aren’t so far apart that dissidents would need to be shot for voting for the other.

WAR loves Angels players as compensation for hating former Angels prospect Dante Bichette so much. :D:D

Ohtani is pretty great, but I can't for the life of me figure out how he has a nearly identical pitching WAR to Justin Verlander and Alex Manoah when looking at their stat lines next to each other. Is strikeout percentage ranked that much more important then nearly every other statistic on the stat sheet, including ERA, Whip and Innings load?

As far as hitting. He's having an average J.D. Martinez type season as a DH. No, not one of his better seasons...one of his average seasons....except Martinez did actually play in the field every once in awhile, even if he wasn't very good at it.

I get that nobody has done what Ohtani has done, as good as he's done it in a very long time.

He's very good, but not great, at two different positions (one of which does not play in the field). This frees up the Angels to...maybe add one more roster spot near the end of the bullpen, or the end of the bench to add more depth. A player who likely wouldn't register as a blip on the WAR scale. Valuable sure, but arguable exactly how valuable on a team that has two of the most valuable analytical players in the league, and very little to show for it.

It's very interesting...very impressive, etc, etc, etc......but can't wrap my head around how that's more valuable then what Judge is doing this year.

BTW, I don't think the MVP race will be close. I think Judge will run away with it...but get ready to be bombarded by article after article from stat head contrarians whining about how badly Ohtani got ripped off from winning a 2nd MVP in a row.

Bichette is a good example of WAR’s excesses. WAR loves the K (for pitchers, doesn’t hurt batters much to whiff 200 times, which seems a contradiction. If it’s great for the pitcher, it should be the opposite for the batter) and FIP > ERA (which is about the same for Ohtani). WAR makes so many arbitrary value judgements that, while it does a good job at highlighting stars, saying Ohtani’s 8.1 and Judge’s 9.0 are ‘right’ requires accepting all of these valuations and weightings in the formula. Thus, it’s greatly overblown.

I don’t Ohtani’s value comes in the sense that he saves a roster spot. It’s not that much more valuable to the team to have him as 1 man instead of 2 (ignoring the obvious: that the Angels can’t easily just go get a 2.55 pitcher or a 148 OPS+ hitter whenever they want), but when we measure a players overall value, that he basically gets to count twice is really tough to overcome. If you have a 2.55 ERA and a 148 OPS+, it’s hard to not be the most valuable player. Is Judge’s 61 point lead in OPS+ (or pick whatever of his amazing batting stats one likes) greater than also also being a 2.55 ERA starting pitcher? I’m not sure it is. I think I’d vote Judge if the season ended today, but I’m not sure he really produces more value.

We joke, but I swear in the late 2010s there were days when Trout went 0 for 4 with 3Ks and his WAR went up. It was like he got credit just for playing. A season could be a week old and he'd already be a full point ahead.

great 35 - 45 home run guy for sure...

Ohtani leads in ZERO batting categories.....and only 1 pitching category.....wild pitches.

Aaron Judge leads in 10 offensive categories (Home Runs, RBI, Walks, .OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, Total Bases, IBB, Runs).

Judge has the Yankees in first place by 6 games in what may be the toughest division in baseball. The Angels were eliminated I believe at the All Star Break.

Judge might win the Triple Crown (which has happened ONCE since Yaz in '67).

He will tie or beat one of the Greatest records of All Time 61 Home Runs in a season.

And you think Ohtani sniffs Judge this season, you should be shot!......or thrown down a flight of stairs.........or at least be egged by a bunch of neighborhood kids.

So the fact that Ohtani fills two roles allows you to add the worst player on your team to your roster. How valuable is that when push comes to shove, I don't know how to quantify it.

It’s terribly tragic, encountering other views.

Ohtani has been amazing all season and he is highly valuable for his pitching and hitting both at such high levels.

Still Judge all the way however it would have been interesting if Los Angeles Angels were in first place how the conversation might go.

But as it is Still Judge

Ohtani is a step above Rick Ankiel

Without Judge the Yankees would not be in first place and may not even make the playoffs.

With him they are in first place and will be playing in the post season.

Without Obtani the Angels would be spending October playing golf.

With Obtani the Angels will be spending October playing golf.

Obtani is a good player but no MVP this year.

Mike

58, 59........

4 for 5 with 2 HR's, a Double and a Walk.

I didn't think he had a chance in hell a month ago, but he's played his way into legitimate contention for the Batting title and a Triple Crown attempt.

Yankees bullpen still doing their best to try and blow a comfortable lead in the 9th inning though.

Well, one consideration is that with Verlander as your ace, you need to build the rest of your team, including (presumably) a dedicated DH and slate of RHP and LHP to start, setup and close. If Ohtani is your ace, you can literally have the exact same lineup with one extra roster spot. This flexibility could be used for a luxury specialist that has one or two tools, but not enough versatility to fit on a normal roster.

Imagine a player that hits .212, mediocre defender, but a true expert on the basepaths. He probably gets a couple shots in the big leagues, but keeps getting sent down because he doesn't have the BA or fielding skills to stay on the bench. But, if you have the extra spot because Ohtani fills two spots, you have a guy that can start every extra inning game on 3rd base with no outs and can score on any fly ball. This is also true if you get a runner on second or third in the 8th-9th inning in a tie game or down by a run. It is very niche, but it could literally be a difference of 4-6 games over the course of a season. That is a WAR of 4-6 by virtue of the fact the alternative is not having that person at all.

Alternatively, maybe you have a pitcher that gets lit up against righties, but is unhittable against lefties. Again, not versatile enough to take a bullpen spot on alot of clubs, but with one extra roster spot, you have a lefty closer that you can put into any game.

That flexibility has tremendous value to alot of teams (especially a team managed well - not necessarily one that can't make September interesting with two players that may go down as all time greats). It is not just the ability to bring in a 4th string middle infielder off the waiver wire to keep the Gatorade and sunflower seeds stocked on the bench.

Check out the pitcher and catchers reaction to #59. :D:D:D:D



https://www.mlb.com/video/aaron-judg...t-center-field

And now he is hitting .316 just a little outside the triple crown.

Amazing and will be an interesting end of season run

60

tied Ruth

next up Maris

And as of this morning leading for the triple crown. Batting now #1 at .317

Just missed a game winning homer in the Bottom of the 9th by 5 feet to straightaway center.

0 for 2 with 3 walks. Threw out the possible go ahead run in the top of the 9th with zero outs at 2nd base on a ball hit off the wall.

looks like Cora main plan is to walk him. that will make it that much harder

but he is also still leading the triple crown with his league leading average at .316

A simple amazing year

And still in the triple crown race also

Hopefully he gets 1 more

61*

(ducks)

No need for *

Barry Bonds is the record holder

73


.....and Mr Judge agrees with me.

indeed battle # CLV

*earned

Well

1. I predicted 60 so I am out
2. Regarding the Astrick they used to use it for many records but stopped and I believe that this record is tainted do to steriod era but since MLB accepts and recognizes it there is no need for it, Regardless how many of us might feel.
3. Still an amazing year for a great player that deserves the accolades

Great interview after the game. Such humility and a healthy respect for the game, an absolute class act.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCij3BIZVKQ

Missed this thansk for sharing and hopefully he re-signs with the Yankees and becomes their captain he represents well

Wow he really has slowed down (especially with some teams walking him alot more) in the last 10 games. Now the question is can he get the big one (#62) in next 4 days.

If it goes a couple more games, I suspect someone will just groove one for him.

Here's a question for other Aaron Judge and Yankees fans.

If you had a choice, what would you rather see?

#1. Aaron Judge stayed tied with Roger Maris, but started getting some damn hits and pulls out the batting title for the Triple Crown.

#2. Aaron Judge gets 1 more HR to pass Maris, but in the process, falls hopelessly out of the Triple Crown race.

I'll admit, I think I'd rather see Judge snag a Triple Crown (though it might be too late for that already) and stay tied with Maris, and have two fellow Yankees at the top of the AL single season HR list.

....and yes, I realize the most likely scenario is that Judge passes Maris AND falls hopelessly out of the batting title race. ;)

This is just for funzies. Not exactly a Sophie's Choice, I know.

2 IMO is much more significant.

Odd that Yankee fans would not want to see this AL HR record broken by Judge.

Yankee fans in 1961 didn't want Maris to have the record.

They wanted Mantle to get it.

I think 99.9% of Yankee fans today want Judge to get it.

Poor Roger, he still can't catch a break.

Don't look now but he's down to 2 games.

And there it is.

Good for Judge, was looking like he might miss it after all.

I watched the reply, that pitch had nothing on it lol.

I just watched it. Not saying he got grooved one, but I'm pretty sure the #9 hitter would have that one over the fence too :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC5kQcSrwgU

Man, an amazing feat just happens, and almost radio silence. Let's discuss favorite T206 colors or something.

Good for him, a nice guy and great ambassador for baseball. It's easier to root for a guy like that as opposed to a prima dona like Bonds.

Prima donna would have been an upgrade for Bonds.

My favorite T206 color is hot pink.

Congrats Aaron.

I had 64 and it looks like he will come up just a little short.

You are now the single season MLB Home Run record holder. Absolutely no doubt about it.

The Roger Maris asterisk nonsense is broken for good. And no asterisk for you either.

Cheers.

Butch

Judge was amazing and he will come up short on the triple crown(scary how low the Batting average will be for the AL winner).

Regardless great story and hopefully Roger Marris Jr. Will finally go away.

and I like the Orange (ie Ty Cobb Red but on a few the color was not right and produced a nice Orange)

My favorite t206 color is Honus Wagner Orange.

I agree with the above. It is good to see Judge break the single season HR record.