Holds true for stocks and cards
 

‘I have no doubt, none whatsoever, that we are in a raging mania in all assets. I also have no doubt that I don’t have a clue when that’s going to end.’
— Stanley Druckenmiller

or what happens when it does end.. Soft landing or hard?

Hard landing followed by a double down from mommy government, followed by me being able to afford to finish out my "E" sets.

I think when the prices start to fall, they'll fall with a crash, because the investors will leave the hobby like rats fleeing a sinking ship. And the investors have been behind much of the boom.

Though I'll feel bad for the people who lose money on the hobby, I'll enjoy being able to get cards for reasonable prices again.

IMO, it largely depends on which era of cards.

The bonkers in artificial scarce ultra-high $$ modern -vs- the bonkers in pre-war and 1950s high condition iconic HOFs, are two completely different types of bonkers.

I bet their landings after the bubble burst will be much different.


Just like the subprime / housing bubble of 2008-2009. The landing was much different in Boston or San Francisco compared to Vegas or Florida.

Any thoughts on when the 10's of thousands of backlogged PSA cards are finally graded and how that will impact the market?

I agree, and for vintage I don’t think we’ll see prices back to pre-pandemic levels. They’ll go down, but $1,000 cards that became $5,000 cards may only retreat back to $2-3,000. I think enough new people have been brought into the hobby to raise the floor.

I think that's a pretty good call.

Where the real fun will be is the Wander Franco orange refractor cards, and the Jasson Dominguez cracked ice refractor, etc.

Imagine spending $80,000 on a card of one of these unproven guys and seeing them go up in flames. I guess one common refrain is anyone who buys one of these cards has money to burn, but not sure that's always true.

Card Stimuli
 

Why not just get to the bottom line for us CA residents.......

1. A min 5 figure stimulus check from Joe Biden that is specifically to be spent on sportscards.

2. A min 4 figure check of the same from the brilliant CA Gov Gavin Newsome.

So when the crash is upon us, we will have been twice $$ stimulated to spend again (and again....)

Yeah sure. It's outrageous to give money to unemployed working class folks. Much better when we gave it two years ago to poor people who needed enhanced tax deductions for racehorses and private jets.

A lot is modern Junk Era Late 80’s early 90’s Garbage

Don’t forget the 201x Limited Pop 1/100 Refractor Foil Signature Patch Garbage.

Hi Steve,

I just said my piece in a Net54 post but I guess I was a few hours too late.

I think we are going higher in nominal terms but not necessarily in real terms over the next 24 months.

Who the hell knows?

Scot

I'm selling all stocks and cards and hoarding gasoline ;)

And are you liquidating your stockpile of toilet paper to fund your gasoline acquisition? ;)


Personally, I have a delivery of Scotch and Bourbon scheduled for today to get me through the tough times!

What better time to drink than if you can't afford to drive? :D

To paraphrase Freewheelin' Franklin... Scotch will get you through times of no more better than money will get you through times of no Scotch. :cool:

Perhaps. But it was also outrageous to give stimulus money to people receiving a fixed income and/or disability. Their income was not impacted one whit by the virus.

Sorry, I can’t help myself- the stimulus was/is an F-Ing joke. It is not “aid”, it’s stimulus, intended to kick start an economy that really was not doing bad. I am all for aid. But this was not aid. I have no problem giving money for people in need to pay rent, buy groceries, food and gas, etc. But this round of checks was not that. Like the first round, it was a total giveaway of an arbitrary amount of money based on arbitrary limits, with no regard to need or geography (latter point being $1000 goes much further in Arkansas than in Manhattan).

I pay a lot in taxes. And I am sure I will pay more under this administration. And I don’t mind that, if my money was being used properly. But just writing checks to people, in a decent economy, regardless of need or where they live and based on arbitrary income limits (having nothing to do with need), is 1000% wasteful and despicable.

As for the card market - people will get killed, totally crushed. As they will with stocks, and wines, and real estate, etc. I think we headed are off a cliff, which actually presents opportunity. I have felt this way for a long time. I knew the card market was in for it When random bankers and brokers stopped emailing me articles about cards and instead sent me pictures of the cards they recently invested in. That said, I think some cards (and stocks and real estate, etc) will hold up much better than others, and may actually increase in value. All that said, I don’t know shit......

"We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future."

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/...yODI@._V1_.jpg

Historically speaking, price pull-backs have not been 100% of the gains and have presented good buying opportunities. I have banked all the profits from selling into this bubble and will use the same to purchase inventory once the fear locks in and the true distress sales start. Figure about 6-12 months after the bubble first pops.

As for when and how it will pop, as major events reopen we will see money shift back to other forms of fun. That will slow the roll. Watch the sell-through rates on auctions. They are still unprecedentedly high. When the passed lots fall back to typical rates it will crush the speculators and wring out the excess.

The puppy in a python effect of the grading backlog will definitely slam modern and common postwar. It is already happening with some issues I track. I really like a few of the Star Michael Jordan issues, as a collector. They have peaked and are now retreating. I checked the other day on one issue, the Gatorade, and was shocked to see how many graded cards are available for sale at prices that would have been instant sales a few months ago.

The fact that we have multiple threads going on this is a good indicator that The Fear is setting in.

The mind of The Hobby is seized by a fatal dry rot - and it's only a question of time before all that the mind controls will run amuck in a frenzy of stupid, impotent fear.--with apologies to Hunter S. Thompson

The gains in the US stock market in the last 30-40 years defy all logic. Is it really possible for the world's largest economy to grow about 15 times in just four decades? We'd have to be expanded to the moon and Mars by now.

My assumption is that the 401 k becoming a new societal norm around the late '80s (combined with very low to moderate interest rates the entire time) has led to this massive house of cards being built in the securities markets. And if either of those factors ever changes, especially the interest rates, then look out.

BUT....can anyone really guess when any of that might happen? I stopped trying to ages ago, and never should have to begin with.

Pre WW

Cobbs And Ruth’s Centered Grades 4 and Up Best Of Breed...
To me lower grades are way over priced and are abundant.

Post WW II

Mantle/Jackie/and Mays are best in show, Centered Grades 6 and Up.

I’ve studies these names and graded example types for over 20 years, these have and in my opinion will continue to outperform the other names If buying and holding for the long term. If you want Steady Eddie Sleep Well at Night Investments in Cardboard these are where it’s at.


Those are the only ones I’ve ever considered as investment or worth hedging with as part of long term investment portfolio.


The rest could get hammered.

Out of myself, my parents, and my sister, I have by far the most stable income and am the only one who didn’t lose a red cent in all this. I was the only one of the four to get the stimulus checks.

My best friend of 31 yrs has an insurance agency with several employees. He is very profitable and hasn't lost too much during the pandemic so far. He has probably gotten more by now but he got 50k of free money, stimulus BS, for not laying employees off that he had no intention of ever laying off. Well spent tax money right there.
Our society has apparently lost it's collective sense. How smart do you have to be to figure out if you pay someone more to not work than to work, they will choose to not work? Of course there will be exceptions but is this basic principle, like the more money there is the less it's worth, so hard to grasp? The very people all of this is supposed to help are going to get hurt the worst in the long run. Just one person's opinion and your mileage may vary.

Rant over...

.

I agree, but the last time Congress could credibly be accused of fiscal responsibility was during Calvin Coolidge's administration.

I believe it was Joseph Kennedy Sr., who, just before the 1929 crash, decided to unload all his stocks after his shoeshine boy starting giving him stock tips. Today's shoeshine boy might be talking about a Luka RC he went into debt to buy. A night of long knives awaits.l

I think your sardonic remark is right on the money. We have two economies here in the U.S. and many people really needed the stimulus. Through no fault of their own, millions lost their jobs - and their health insurance - during the pandemic. As mentioned by some on this thread, there may have been some people who didn't need the stimulus money, which incidentally was means-tested, but there were a whole lot who absolutely did. The stimulus wasn't a joke, but a lifeline for many. And probably unfortunately, only a temporary one.

Well said, Mr. Luckey. You present another example (society's current collective sense) depicting decisions void of common sense are exceedingly common. -- Brian Powell

Actually, and unfortunately, if you are a politician, it makes perfect sense to throw other peoples' money (or imaginary, newly created money) to the masses in exchange for their support and votes.

I don't think there are more than three or four people in our federal government who are actually serious about fiscal responsibility, and frankly, I don't know who they are.

So I disagree - throwing around free money DOES make sense to those who are doing it.

When a high schooler ( my second cousin) is getting $300+/week in "aid" something is wrong. And yes, she lives with 2 parents who work. Meanwhile in my house , stimulus is a rumor.

When I got my first automatic stimulus payment direct deposited to my bank account (which is how I pay federal income tax,) I got a letter in the mail telling me it was a payment from the government and signed (facsimile) by the former President. When I received the latest "stimulus" payment, I received 2 such letters, with the current President's signature. So they give you money, then make sure you know who gave it to you.

Then they hope and assume, in the future, you will vote for Santa Claus instead of someone fiscally responsible. There is a method to their madness.

"No one in this world, so far as I know ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people."

--H.L. Mencken

"You've got to remember that these are just simple people. ... The common clay of the new West. You know... morons."

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ize/morons.png

The time to sell has never been better, the time to buy has never been worse.

That Being Said I don’t know what the hell is going to happen, there is a 50/50 chance in either direction.

If the stimulus is generated by just printing money, then it's not a stimulus, it's a politician's way of raising taxes. I thought that as the supply of money in the economy grows, the value of that money decreases and we get inflation.

Government created inflation is a form of tax because it takes more dollars to buy something, but, what makes it worse for you guys advocating that "we give money to folks who really need it", is that it taxes everyone - rich and poor. We're already seeing inflation due to certain shortages. It's only going to get worse the next 5 years, and eventually, interest rates are going to have to rise to keep up with inflation. And when interest rates rise, poor people are further hurt.

And this is a direct result of government spending money it doesn't have. Doesn't anyone ever ask, "Where is this money coming from?"

Agree 100%