General Question About Collecting Vintage
 

So, I enjoy collecting vintage sets and will be looking to embark on a new project soon (60s era). I've been doing my 'research' and familiarizing myself with the set, etc. As I'm doing this, I'm noticing what I feel is an 'odd' phenomena and wanted to see what help I can get towards understanding:

Raw cards I'm seeing available from reputable sellers are typically rated in standard grades VG, EXMT, NM, and (NM or better) with the usual qualifiers to check scans, ask questions, etc. PSA 6, 7, and 8s all seem to be readily available. But here's what seems a bit off to me.

Raw prices appear very high compared to the graded cards. 'VG' raw sells comparable to low PSA 6, 'EXMT' is in the high PSA 6 to low PSA 7 price range, and 'NM' raw sells near high PSA 7 prices or even more in some cases. PSA 8s seem to outpace raw cards, but raw 'NM or better' often sells well above PSA 7s. I'm well aware that dealer reputation factors in, etc. And that not all PSA 7s are 'equal'. But I am not used to seeing raw cards regularly outpace graded counterparts quite to this degree. Is it an anomaly and I've picked an unusual set or is this part of the new normal?

My goal for this project is to put together a 'high-grade' set. The median graded card for the set is a PSA 7, so my goal would be NM or better. Would you just target graded cards, raw cards to submit and grade, or ungraded raw? For the prices, I'm leaning towards already graded...

Thanks for any opinions and information you can offer!

Good assessment. It happened in spades about three years ago where we started seeing mid-high grade raw cards outselling PSA or SGC graded examples because they might have the possibility of being overgraded (for a profit) or their eye appeal is better, or because some customers ignore graded cards. One reason is seeing a card graded a 6 or a 7 is known to have a flaw, whereas an ungraded raw card can be displayed without the knowledge that it is flawed.
So if you buy 6.5s and crack them out, go ahead. If you buy raw, go ahead. There are plenty of altered cards available both raw and graded. There are plenty of unaltered cards that are raw and graded, as well. Do your own research about which sellers are trustworthy and which are not.

It's an interesting phenomenon that I've noticed too. Some sellers tend to get prices realized from their raw cards equivalent to or higher than a graded card.

Here's my theory: Once a card is graded, it loses its potential. A nice NM common ungraded can always have the potential to be an 8 in the eyes of a buyer. A slabbed 7, is undoubtedly a 7 (obviously ignoring the crack out and resubmit game).

To me, its a similar phenomenon to unopened wax. A '50s or '60s unopened 5-pack of cards will sell for at least several hundred, and depending on the year/series several thousand dollars every time. Chances are that pack is going to have 5 EXMT or NM commons that combined are worth maybe 40 bucks. But the potential of it having a 10 is there. The potential of it having a Mantle/Mays/Aaron is there. Buyers are spending bucks on the potential. Suppose its an appeal to the gambler in all of us.

I guess it's like buying a lottery ticket. Each one might be a winner! But I've seen raw cards sell for way too much based on the way they look in the pictures. The purchaser is really hoping to get a high grade but not always being realistic.

Part of it is the old school way of thinking. If a PSA 8 card generally sells for $XX, then some dealers will look at an ungraded card and say, "This is definitely 8-worthy!" and price it near that level. Since it isn't actually an 8, the basic logic is way off. It reminds me of how 1972 high number commons always seemed to 'book' for $12...yet they were always pretty plentiful and I never paid even close to that much for one (man, I love that set!!)...and sellers at shows would have them marked at around $12 apiece (regardless of what shape they were in), and never sold any. The next show you went to, the same sellers would have the exact same cards laid out yet again. They only looked at BV and didn't bother considering the reality of the situation.

Thanks for all the insight! It's greatly appreciated.

I feel like a lot of what's been said makes a lot of sense. At the end of the day, I want a set that I'm proud to display in my binder rather than a PSA-registry type of set.

Based on everyone's feedback, I'm going to give raw a shot and see how it goes. If I have to shift, I have to shift, we'll see.

Thanks again for all the thoughts!

another consideration
 

Some people do the majority of the set raw and just get the more expensive cards graded.

Picky
 

Unless you are super super picky on condition or ABSOLUTELY LOVE CANT DO WITHOUT every card being a PSA 7 or whatever I think the more reasonable/affordable way to go is to buy nice raw for 95% of the cards and maybe for the $100+ big hitters play it safe with graded. JMO

ALso
 

Also, keep in mind most common cards will be much more widely available RAW (and usually cheaper) and therefore easier to pick up

It is a cognitive bias or two:

Dunning-Kruger Effect: unskilled collectors tend to overestimate their own ability to accurately grade cards in a TPGs scale. They will overpay for a card that has traits that they inaccurately rate under the TPG system.

Exaggeration Expectation: The tendency to expect or predict more extreme outcomes than those outcomes that actually happen. A raw card may have great eye appeal but a technical flaw that will get it a 3-5 grade 99% of the time.

Wishful Thinking: The formation of beliefs based on what might be pleasing to imagine, rather than on evidence, rationality, or reality. It is a product of resolving conflicts between belief, and desire.