I appreciate that Adam.

I got one for that, too:

228. Registry Disparity
The mathematical rule of thumb that a card with a qualifier is equal to a straight graded card two whole numbers lower.

See also: The Binary Conundrum - owning a graded card with a qualifier, but since the ‘defect’ is so minor, it definitely doesn’t merit having a two-grades-lower drop in value.

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It's definitely just a (silly?) 'rule of thumb' with not a lot behind it. When I chat up someone with a huge BIN price on an off-centered card, and see if they'll adjust their price for the 'two-grades-lower' theory, they almost always want nothing to do with it. Some of them I wholeheartedly agree with (because the cards look great), but I know the others will never sell the cards for anywhere near their asking prices.

It's never been a hard rule, just a starting point. If you track auction prices and build a model, you'll find that each qualifier ultimately has a different effect on pricing. Also, it's location on the card matters as well. A miscut card is by far the most aggressive drop in value. It can often sell for 3 full grades below its non qualified grade. An OC qualifier can go for 1, 2, or 3 grades below. It often depends more on the set and how difficult those cards are to find centered in general. A card with a stain can sell between 1 or 2 grades below depending on the stain and where it's located and how severe it is. Gum stains are worse than wax stains since wax stains are often easy to remove and gum stains aren't. Also, some stains can easily be removed just with water, others can't. This all has an effect on pricing. Marked cards, same thing. Is there ink on the front or the back? And how big is the ink mark or writing? I've seen cards with mk qualifiers where you can't even find the marking. So long story short, it depends. But a miscut card is by far the worst qualifier in terms of resale value. That will kill you every time. It's almost always a full grade less in value than even an OC designation.

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

always learning
 

Thanks Darren - I appreciate your sharing your experiences with sellers and the two grades "myth".

So true. Grades aren't created equal. Might be a technical 4 but looks nicer than many grades higher.

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

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1 or 2 sales here and there can certainly create illusions with respect to the braoder market. And there are so many factors that can cause any one card to be worth considerably more or less than other "comps". I'm a statistician, so I'd love to look at the data if you've been tracking 100 Mantles. I'll send you a PM.

To grade is human.