Who will be selected to the MLB HOF next Tuesday
 

Derek Jeter should be a lock to be chosen. Who else will be picked? Bobby Aubreu, Cliff Lee and Jason Giambi are some other big names that are in their 1st year of eligibility.

Out of those three only Lee stands a chance at election this year, and I don't think it's a good one.

Isnt Bonds currently tracked over 75, with clemens, Walker and Schilling at 70?

I realize its not their first year, but makes for interesting discussions

Through 150 ballots (a shade over 38%) Jeter has 100% of the votes, followed by Larry Walker and Schilling at roughly 85% and 80% respectively. Actual totals always drop quite a bit from the tracker, usually around 10%. If history is any teacher it might be Jeter alone though I think Walker will get in because people will vote for him since, A) it's his last year on the ballot and more importantly, B) the logjam of sure HOFers ahead of him has cleared up significantly over the last few years. Schilling will probably fall slightly short and looks good for next year. WAR darling Scott Rolen is making quite a lot of noise at over 50% of the votes and also looks good for induction sometime in the future. Of Abreu, Lee and Giambi, only Abreu currently has enough support (7.6%) to even remain on the ballot. I say Jeets and Walker by a hair. The PED guys are both tracking below 75% at the moment and will likely fall short.

I think you more or less nail it. Jeter at or near 100%, Walker eeks in (I think/hope).

Schilling has a shot in 2021...Bonds and Clemens? Tough to say.

No way Curt gets in.

Ever? There is no way that the BBWAA is going 3 years in a row without electing anyone. He is the best clean player on the ballot until Beltre in 2024.

Wow, that's amazing to think about...after the recent 5+ year logjam on the ballot. I mean, for a good number of years, there were 15 guys on the ballot who had strong cases to be in the hall, and voters could vote for a max of 10.

But yes, we have Jeter this year, Ortiz next....it's really thinning out.

I credit the rule that votes become pubic and the cleanup of the voting base with finally clearing up the logjam.

MLB just lifted the lifetime ban on deceased players. This could greatly affect the HOF. Haven’t read terms but can’t imagine it in effect this year since voting is almost final but imagine a 2020 induction ceremony with Derek Jeter and Shoeless Joe Jackson??!! For a sport in need of positive headlines that could be huge.

That was a very interesting press release by MLB today. Without saying they changed their minds, they just said that players are removed from the MLB ineligible list when the die and that MLB is "agnostic about a player's eligibility for the Hall of Fame, whether they're dead or alive."

It's been the HOF's rule (at least officially since 1991), not MLB's, that does not allow players on the ineligible list to be listed on the ballot for the HOF. The HOF could have chosen to include Jackson, Rose and others on their ballot if they so wished, but now if they keep in alignment with MLB, then at least Jackson could have a possibility to be elected by the Early Baseball committee which will meet this December. Joe Jax in the Baseball HOF - say it could be so.

Personally, I would not vote for either if they appeared on a ballot (and I was a big Pete fan growing up).

I want Pete in the second he dies. Just so he can be looking up at the ceremony cursing the fact that he couldn't be there.

Not sure that putting a player accused of taking bribes to throw games would be viewed as positive.

Agree on Rose after he dies. He could be in based on his playing days with a note on his plague about his ban. I just don’t want to see that <insert your favorite 4 letter word here> at the podium in Cooperstown on a nice July day.

Maybe they need a “year of the cheaters” to get it all done at once - Jackson, Rose, other Black Sox, Bonds, Clemens, etc.

Some fans will see this as a long awaited correction, others a travesty (but one that is at least over with all at once).

These guys being IN the HOF would actually get them less attention after induction than being on the outside looking in.

I mean, look at Bert Blylevin.

I agree. If Rose were elected while alive, his speech would trash Bart Giamatti and Faye Vincent, he just can't help himself, Manfred or whoever would never allow that.

You’re right. I was originally thinking about Jackson with a collectors popularity bias. It would definitely raise debate both positive and negative and given whats currently going on it would probably be quite negative.

Most recent numbers I saw earlier today look very good for Walker.

The deal with Walker is that he usually gets more support from the writers who release their ballots than those who keep them private. Based on the degree to which his support has dropped (between public and private ballots) in the past, Walker should be right on the line. Nate Rakich, over at 538, has developed an algorithm to model this and he predicts that Walker gets 73% of the vote. Which is obviously close enough to fall within any reasonable margin of error. One way or the other, it's going to be close.

But also, if he doesn't get in, it would be unprecedented for a player who gets this much support from the BBWAA to not get elected by the VC (or the Era Committees, as they're calling it now). So Walker might get in this year, but will almost certainly get in eventually.

That should say "the cheaters who got caught".

Whitey Ford has readily admitted to being Harris from Major League in his later years (doctoring the ball). Mike Schmidt was the incredible hulk from PEDs. And it's hard to imagine what else used to go on. Most of it was just accepted back then, as long as you didn't throw games to spite a backstabbing owner or get caught betting on games that you managed

If the Hall didn't have any cheaters, there'd be a lot of space open there

Where did you see that Schmidt used PEDs to bulk up? I've never seen that and I doubt it happened. What he did say was that he took Greenies (amphetamines) later in his career. The only problem with that was that it was common practice in baseball in the 50's - 80's, in fact, the trainer's used to doll them out like candy. Check out Ball Four on that one.

Without cheaters in there it would be more like the closet of fame. Soon you will have all the Ford and Schmidt fans saying they are innocent. At least you didn't call out Nolan Ryan and Tony Gwynn.;)

I haven’t heard the Schmidt accusation before, either.

I have heard “there is already a PED user in the HOF”
(and have heard so for years).

If I were making baseless guesses, Schmidt wouldn’t be on my short list.

If Derek Jeter gets in on 100% of the ballots, the voters have lost their damned minds, and the Hall has lost all credibility. He's a Hall of Famer. But 100% of the vote? Jeter? LOL.

We crossed that bridge a long time ago.

Whoever doesn't vote for him should have their voting privileges revoked for being a complete moron. I don't get why so many in the past didn't get 100% of the vote. I get there are players that are borderline but with players like Jeter there is no question on if he is a HOFer or not.

I heard that also, but always thought (but it has never been confirmed) that it might be Reggie Jackson. I base that only on his last year with Oakland and playing with the Roid Boys, as well as it looked to me like he was a bit bigger. Like I said, pure speculation.

Gil Hodges received over 50% 11 times. Over 60% 3 times with a high of 63.4%. Walker has only received over 50% one time, last year and most likely again this year. These are different times, but Hodges is still waiting for his call. With Joe Torre and Phil Rizzuto getting in, you would think that it is time for Hodges with his combination of playing career and managerial career to get elected.

Another very strong player who played a long time and took a physical beating on the base paths AND played with those A’s team is in the HOF. Again...just baseless guessing.

The right answer is probably some scrawny guy we’d never expect! :p

Making ballots public made a lot of the “dumb votes” no longer something we see (as often). The throwaway to the local favorite, the “HOF but not 1st ballot”, even worrying about the percentage once over 75%...the voting process has had a lot of “stupid” built in over the years.

The only legit reason I could see for not voting for Jeter is if you legitimately felt there were 10 other players who were deserving, so left Jeter off since he was so obviously going to get in.

I never really cared that no one had been voted in with 100% of the vote and still don't think anyone should. I think it would be safe to say that before Mariano Rivera that no Yankee player received a vote from a Red Sox reporter and no Red Sox player received a vote from a Yankee reporter, and I think that any teams with strong rivalries should be the same.

And I also think it would have been kind of funny if a shoe in hall of famer got dropped off the ballot because everyone figured that everyone else was going to vote him in and no one voted for him.

I didn't say he wasn't a Hall of Famer. I said he shouldn't be a first ballot, 100% vote getter. If I had a vote, I would wait until the second ballot. Would I be a moron? He's not the greatest to ever play his position. Not even close.

He was a real good player. He's nowhere near an immortal. He's not in the class of Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio or Mantle. Not even freaking close. He was a shortstop that hit for real good average. Had pretty good speed. Decent power. Awful defensively, and he struck out way, way too much for a guy with his middle-of-the-pack power, and didn't walk. 1,082 walks in 12,602 PAs is putrid, as is 1,840 strikeouts.

He led the league in runs scored twice, and hits twice. That's it. For a twenty year career, a first ballot Hall of Famer should be more dominating than that. And a unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer? LOL. Please.

He never won a batting title. Never won an MVP. Only three top 5 MVP finishes for a guy that was "the face of baseball", on the most visible team in pro sports, a team that was consistently in the World Series during his career. Yawn. When I read discussions about players in other sports, those things matter. When goalies are debated for the Hockey Hall of Fame, "did they win a Vezina Trophy? If not, they can still get in, but shouldn't be on the first ballot. Jeter was never the best player in the game, or in his league. And it can be argued he wasn't even the best at his position.

He had a 72.4 career WAR. That's 88th all-time. Mike Trout who is a great player, has more WAR in 9 years than Jeter had in 20. Larry Walker, who is on his final ballot, in three fewer years, had .3 more WAR. Walker won three batting titles. Led the league in home runs once. Led the league in on base twice. Slugging twice. OPS twice. Had a season with 400 total bases. And it wasn't Coors doing that. His 1997 MVP season, when he hit .366 with a league leading 49 home runs, slashing .452/.720/1.172 (all led the NL)--here are his splits:

Home: 20 HR, .460 OBP/.709 SLG/1.169 OPS
Away: 29 HR, .443 OBP/.733 SLG/1.176 OPS

He was better on the road than at Coors. But the narrative is that he was a product of the thin air.

Walker's career OPS +, which factors in ballpark, was 141. Jeter's was 115. Walker, unlike Jeter, was actually a pretty good fielder when he won those seven Gold Gloves. Jeter...was not.

Yet Larry Walker, a "product of Coors Field" who had a composite 137 OPS+ his last three years in Montreal, is on the ballot for the last time. He may not get in. Yet Captain Ame....I mean, Jeter, will be a unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer?

What a joke.

If I were making baseless guesses about "baseless guesses", it wouldn't be about a guy who (while having Pete Rose make funny quotes about how amazing Schmidt's body was) hit basically 700 HRs for the era he played in and scooped up everything near third base like a vacuum.... all while admitting how easily available greenies and other forms of PEDs were available in the past, and while saying that he would've taken steroids had he played in the '90s, among other statements where he basically infers that he didn't have the willpower to avoid those temptations at a younger age. Quotes from his book and HBO interview, btw

My post is about if Jeter is a HOFer or not. You say also say he is.

Larry Walker has not been voted in for very good reasons and should not get voted in this year. Unless they changed the name to Hall of Above Average.

Also, when it comes to Schmidt, even if none of the PEDs made him bigger or stronger, it seems pretty clear that he took part in activities that enhanced your results from them. And yes, they were "handed out like candy", but steroids were pretty available too to just about anyone who played in the roid boys era. It's not like only the best players used them then either.

The point is that readily available PEDs (and other cheating methods in the past) likely turned some really great players into superhuman ones, just like the situation with Bonds, Clemens, etc. And how that makes it senseless and unfair to shame/blackball only the roid boys

If they were told drinking whale sperm would make them play better, they'd drink it.

See, to me the guy who admitted to using other things and saying he'd consider using strikes me as a guy who probably would admit to using if he used, not saying he might if he did.

But I'm far from an expert on such things...the one thing the whole steroid thing has taught me is that you never know. I mean, for example, everyone thinks of the sluggers as users, but once testing was put in place, more pitchers got popped than hitters.

Just my opinion, but if a guy is a Hall of Famer then I don't concern myself with whether he got in on the first try or the 20th try or what vote percentage he got. There's no "first ballot wing" and their vote totals aren't on the plaques. Rivera to me isn't more of a HOFer because he was unanimous. It's more like, how could anyone not vote for him? The fact that writers found insane logic to not vote for others in the past doesn't mean that same logic should be applied to future elections. And it doesn't make Rivera a better player than the HOFers who were elected before him. In my mind, the vote totals are more of a reflection on the voting body than the players they're voting on. I'm admittedly a big Hall guy, I think a HOF with 20 guys in it would be pretty boring. So I try to recognize that there's varying degrees of greatness. Sure, compared to Aaron, Mantle, Mays... the big guns...most everyone falls short. But if compared to 6 or 7 thousand other players, you're the best in the room, well, I'm totally ok with those guys getting a plaque.

Can you name another just above average player who hit 360 three years in a row?

Or how about just another above average player who hit 360 or above three times in their entire career?

A lot of players did some great things a few times. That does not make them a HOFer. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles does that make him a HOFer?

Larry had 2160 hits, 383 home runs, 1311, RBIs and a .313 batting average. If those are HOF #s there should be a LOT more people in the HOF than there is now.

Bill Marlock didn't hit 360 once in his entire career.

How far apart do you put Walker and Vlad in their careers? Walker's got a significant lead in WAR, a higher OPS and a higher OPS+. He's also got 7 gold gloves.

Vlad was elected in his second ballot.

I guess if those are the only stats you use to judge a HOFer, then sure. But there are certainly many more contributions a player can make.
I'm open to the idea that Walker isn't deserving, but you'll have to raise a point that isn't countered in this story first:
https://www.cooperstowncred.com/larr...eld-conundrum/

It does seem like Walker won't make it now (I think he will in a subsequent Veteran's Committee vote). Funny that Peter Gammons, who has voted for him in the past, dropped him from the ballot this year, certainly denting his cause as Walker's voting will really go down to just a handful of votes.

You obviously can't compare Coors field batting averages and OPS numbers to anyone else.

Walker, Helton, Arenado. All hit 60-70 points higher at home with an OPS a mile higher. Not to mention that the three in a row .360 Walker years were during the late '90s when the ball was popping off Mario Mendoza's bat.

IMO the only HOFer out of that group should be Arenado b/c of his glove too. Assuming his career stays on the same path

It is all just opinions. The HOF is just a tourist trap invented by someone to attract tourists. They even used a made up story for years to attract those tourists. Any argument about who should or should not be displayed in a tourist trap is silly.:D

Interesting thing to say when discussing Walker, who has 7 gold gloves. As far as I know Coors Field doesn't make it easier to win gold gloves.

Why didn't everyone else hit 360 while Walker was?

1997: Walker hit 366. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 318. Difference of 48 points.
1998: Walker hit 363. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 331. Difference of 32 points.
1999: Walker hit 379. Next closest guy on the Rockies hit 320. Difference of 59 points.

You should see Royce Clayton's splits at Coors field.

DJ LeMathieu hit .390 at home in 2016 and .303 on road . in 2014 hit .316 at home and .216 on road (100 point difference)

Carlos Gonzalez hit .336 at home and .160 on road in 2014..


dont know about HOF but Braves will win the World Series 2020..

So what did the next closest players hit at Coors and away?

Not sure. I'm not doubting that Coors Field isn't prone to inflated numbers, but suggesting that just anyone could have done what Walker did by virtue of playing there isn't true. He was exceptional and much better than anyone else on the team.

Almost his entire prime was spent in Colorado, but look what he did with it. An MVP, three batting titles, 5 out of 7 of his gold gloves were won there. He isn't just some guy hacking away in Colorado. The team was full of people like that; Dante Bichette, Andres Gallaraga, Vinny Castillo. Larry Walker was heads and shoulders above them and that's why he's the only one with a HOF case.

Also, just to illustrate how much better Walker was than any other homer happy Rockies player, in the three years Walker hit 360 or better, he was the ONLY player on Colorado to put up an OPS over 1.000.

amazing he did have 230 steals

but power in 1998 he has almost 3x more homers at home versus on road and 1999 he had 26 homers at home and 11 homers away...

in 1997 he did have 9 or so more homers away , still you can see power greatly impacted at home ...batting average isnt everything...unless you are close to 3000 hits etc.

"Everyone else" didn't hit .360 because that's still awful tough to do, regardless of when or where. No one is denying that he was a great hitter. The point is that the numbers are still highly exaggerated because all the great Rockies hitters' home/road splits look like that.

And I know he was a really good outfielder too. His defensive WAR numbers don't show his skills (compared to Arenado), but I should probably give him more of the benefit of the doubt for that.

Walker is, at minimum, very close to HOF standards. but it seems unlikely that his numbers would've gotten him in had he not played for the Rockies. It's a close call.

right he is a great hitter but lets not kid ourselves, .360 is a shiny number...if its .320..its a great number but not shiny and HOF likes shiny numbers and the .360 is because of coors.

If Walker was great in the postseason (Andy Pettite) that would be something to consider but still hasnt worked for Petite.

however hitting .320 for 12 years is better than 4 shiny .360's or whatever, go and get 3000 hits (shiny number) and end the discussion..

And to be fair, there are other parks that should get almost as bad of a rep as Coors (when it comes to inflated hitting numbers). Especially Fenway. People know that places like it and Yankee Stadium are hitter friendly, but they don't take it into account as much as they should.

If you switched Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn's parks, one wouldn't sniff the hall of fame and the other would've had lifetime numbers like Ty Cobb