Is the well running a little dry?
 

Seems like the communications from AHs seeking consignments has increased a good deal lately. Is it possible that some of these guys have stretched themselves thin with too many auctions or possibly newer players have diluted the market a little. No names, but some of the recent auctions by established players have struck me as more than a tad unexciting.
(I would not say that about the next Memory Lane auction. That one is stocked to the rafters with some amazing stuff).

I think a lot of folks who intend to sell eventually are just sitting on their collections, waiting for prices to settle a bit before consigning. Ebay has dried up for vintage material, no doubt caused by PWCC's departure. And you are right, I think the auction houses are beginning to struggle a bit for new or recycled material. Their competitive struggle is as intense as any industry.

Too much inventory of some cards that are just watering down the market. Don't blame folks cashing out either, but just like the housing market - I'll sit back and wait. Today's AH's are like card shops between '89-late 90's and I can't imagine that they won't be thinned out in the next handful of years or less.

That Memory Lane auction might break this forum. Good lord.

Tell me more about what makes you say this. I haven't noticed it, although I am focused on 50's and 60's mostly and watch just a few major sellers.

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I think it is too many auction houses and too little quality material. Oh sure, if you are interested in the shiny new stuff there is a large supply, but most of the better shiny stuff goes to Goldin. If you put aside T206s which there appears to be an endless supply of, vintage material is scarce and, more particularly 19th century better material is rare. That is why auction houses are offering ever increasing shares of the buyers premium for quality consignments. It’s a joke when auction houses send out emails that they are willing to waive seller’s fees for quality material. If you have quality material and you don’t get a BP rebate you are leaving money on the table.

+1000

I've noticed for signed cards, it's been a few months since an eBay seller listed one I needed for my project. There have only been two this year on eBay, and the most recent was in May.

It certainly seems like vintage has dried up across the board. Even 12-18 months ago, you could find things popping up on ebay for reasonable prices...now it's mostly the same old overpriced stuff just sitting there for months at a time.

Hi

I guess it would all depend on what your collection focus is.

I usually buy 1 to 3 Cards a year and try and grow my collection slow and strategically and manage the funds accordingly

My issue is I usually only see a few items of interest across ALL auctions over a period of time.

However, Over the Last 9 Months (and especially the last 3 months) I have had sensory overload.

Result I bought about 2 to 3 years of cards in last 6 months.

To Many Cards I am interested in at 1 time in so many auctions. So Many cards that have not come up for auction for a long time (I am assuming people taking profit on cards that bought long ago).

This has caused me
1. to buy more then I usually do so I exceeded my budget and a bit over extended. (NO REGRETS) out of fear I may not get a chance to get them again for a long time
2. Miss out on a lot of Great and/or rare cards since the budget goes so far.
3. Selling/flipping some cards I did not want to but Other Cards on my list that I wanted more. (and not sure when I can now replace those I gave up)
4.Hoping no more good items come up for a while so I have time to regroup the funds.

But Memory Lane Preview came out and Has some amazing cards I want and I will potentially miss out on all. (Oh Well but Darn) because it came to soon for me.
Heritage Auction in November is also looking strong for cards I want and that may also be to soon for me.

There are always other Auctions down the line but so far the cards I like seem to keep coming.

Once the Investor Exits Stage Right you’ll see the tide turn. FOMO was the real in January-May. Reality is setting in for many buyers/collectors. Pending Bond Back Buying along with Rate Hikes will also cool things down, it’s gonna be cool to see what happens.

i agree with Mrreality and others:
I have a certain friends/people asking about my cards, and if i was looking to sell any.
Then, i been also looking at the AH overload, wishing and thinking if i sold this & that, then maybe i can go for something more up my wantlist.

I too have see the emails for consignments and wondered things drying-up and too much action. I keep up with the calander and write down Ah when they start/end.
Right now, i try to keep it simple and stick with 1 group of cards for now (in my signature)

Seems to me like every time I think there’s a softening I go after a card and someone else or many people do just the same and the prices march onward. Snapolit1, a dear friend, should stick with his decision to focus on photos and Japanese cards from the 1940s rather than sit back and hope his I told you o comes true. :)

Drying up would be the exact opposite of softening. If there's less good stuff prices go higher.

If it’s the exact opposite I guess I missed the point entirely which happens to dumb guys like myself.

A common theme coming from the National this year was people saying that the prices were too high and that most dealers weren't interested in moving their products at current market prices. The industry has also seen a massive inflow of money and investments from outside sources. Big money is flowing in and the broader market saw a pretty large correction earlier this year. There appears to be a lot of people waiting on the sidelines for the market to recover. Surely this has something to do with inventory drying up. As Aquarian pointed out above, and just like with the housing market, when inventory dries up, prices increase.

Steve,
How many consignments do you have in the upcoming Memory Lane auction? Just curious, thanks

Colton

I wasn't tying to be insulting, and I've actually thought it a couple times in the thread already. If the auctions houses are struggling to get top notch stuff, that means supply is drying up. Unless demand is drying up even more quickly it will be bad for buyers, good for sellers, which will eventually serve to convince sellers to turn stuff loose, increasing supply which, if demand doesn't also increase, should eventually bring prices down, but if the complaint is "stuff is drying up" that should serve to increase prices.

It is my believe that there is a good amount of high end quality graded vintage cards. The thing is it’s not coming up for auction, people are not letting it go. If they had it over the past 8 months they know it can go crazy high so why sell now. If it’s high end quality and centered they’re not letting go now why would they. The demand is as high as it’s ever been, I only see it going higher for quality centered grades 7 and up Ruth, Cobb, Mantle, Jackie, and Mays. These are take them to the bank and sit on them items. Especially if you were into them back at much more reasonable levels.

I have a game plan, it’s fun to watch things play out !!

Zero. I’ve never consigned with them.

Thank Goodness, I was really hoping this thread wasn’t a plug for the blind, and I hope you understand how it ‘somewhat’ appeared that way on the surface. I tend to try to look out for the masses.

Please take no offense to my question and I really appreciate your candor.

Thanks Steve!!!

Cheers, Colton

I've followed a lot of 60's and fewer 50's since PWCC's exit from the marketplace. But '40's and pre-war are slim pickings.

Too much inventory. Everyone trying to win in the card market.

Agreed. Controversial question but when does pwcc roll out its first “non-premium” auction? Early October?

Great question, I was just thinking the same thing. I have seen 0 advertising or information on the auction.

Maybe they have had too many people pull out there cards when they got booted from eBay ?

Well since PWCC shill fest has come to a close, their same listings every other month arent appearing. So there's that

It's good that the board has folks like you carefully reviewing messages for hidden bias and potential undisclosed conflicts of interest.

I do think a lot of tougher cards are drying up, like T206 and Babe Ruth, Thai cob cards. There are more people in the hobby and many people are buying these cards to hold long term.

Johnny, I agree. The Vault must be depleted by now. I'm sure Golden and REA have picked up a bunch with their respective marketing pitches. Moreover, those consignors who were happy to consign when PWCC was under the Ebay umbrella are thinking twice after the shilling scandal. That's why their first independent auction will be so fascinating.

I know nothing about Pwcc’s new platform… Does it allow for potential shill bidding or bidding by the house?

Hahahahaha where would we be otherwise?!

The price run on top tier prewar HOFers is far from over. I suspect we will see a lot of record prices on Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Young, Johnson, Mathewson, etc. before the end of the year regardless of what happens to the rest. As for 19th century there is so little of it (other than a few mainstream tobacco issues) that any good piece sells independent of market movements.

Using talk-to-text are we? lol

Speaking of Thai cob, it's time for lunch...

I agree with Johnny for the most part. However, many of the Ruth, Cobb, Wagner and others the grade does not even have to be as high as a 7. I would say anything that has good eye appeal and above a 3 on many of those prized cards are in demand and commanding the high dollars

I think the well is running dry if we are talking about the number of available t206's for sale. I think we can agree that the number of individuals collecting t206's has increased since the pandemic. During the past year I have viewed a significant lowering of the number of t206's offered on ebay. In my opinion, those newly added and pre-existing collectors are very much impacting both the prices of offered cards and reducing the number of cards available for sale. It doesn't take much to create that demand pressure when the estimated number of surviving t206's is relatively small when considering the number of individuals pursing the subjects. I've seen several estimates where that population is approximately 1,500,000. Some may say that is a large number of available subjects but considering how addicting collecting t206's can be is it really that large? I find myself simply trying to amass as many cards as I can. Given the increased number of collectors and current cheapness of money I think prices are going to go higher.

There are AHs that don't allow bidding by the house.:confused::eek::D

Its The only way to fly!!

Regarding Memory Lane, it is now open for bidding (and yes, I do have several consignments; I also have eyes for lots of cards).

Yes it is open.
There are several cards I have my eye on. A lot of nice cards actually.
Ryan, I bet I can name at least 3 cards you consigned.

I just put a few early bids in. Seems like an amazing auction. And no consignments here.

Memory Lane? Does such an auction house exist? It's not in the N54 Auction House list. :p

Some neat stuff. Some interesting descriptions. I love the one for the Kalzoo Bat that says it's high grade (has PSA AUTH designation). :cool: However, it does have a nice image.

Haven't used the AH lately. What is the general cost structure to consign with them? With record prices are they lowering the seller costs at all as they should be getting much more on their buyer premiums?

I just had a phone call from REA today for some Gretzky rookie card autos I had inquired about selling. They said they could do 5% seller fee.

I realize that for lower quality or mid level stuff a sellers' fee might be in order. There is work involved for sure. Not minimizing that.

High end stuff? Haven't paid a penny in sellers' commissions ever and never will. My high end commission could have gone elsewhere. I chose you. Good luck. Let's kick ass.

Spoke with an AH last year I've never dealt with before. Discussion focused on how much of the sellers' commission he could possibly cut. It was a short discussion. Major consignment went elsewhere.

Looking at 112.5% of selling price these days for super stuff