Cryptocurrency, DAOs and NFTs
 

I don't want to pollute the card forums with my opinions on these vessels, but the topic came up, and a user asked why I think crypto is a con. Here are my two cents:


Cryptocurrency has been here for years, and I still haven't seen a practical real-world use for it. It's cumbersome to acquire, you can't spend it on anything easily (except other cryptocurrencies and crypto-adjacent technologies; ie NFTs). That alone isn't enough to call it a con, just an technology with marginal apparent value.

The con comes with the infrastructure surrounding cryptocurrencies. Artists have their work stolen. There are massive fees to convert to/from cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency is a substantial money laundering venue.
The allocation of computing power is incredibly damaging to the environment. There are gaping security holes that allow major investments to be stolen in an instant with no recourse for the victims. There have been entire platforms hacked, with all of the combined investment money stolen.

In sum, a whole lot of downside, with very few, if any positives. Selling it as a legitimate wealth-producing investment is the con.

I would think there's also a pretty big regulatory risk.

The major downfall I see of cryptocurrencies is that they present themselves as a modern alternative to national fiat currencies without solving the presumed problems of such currencies. The US dollar is a fiat currency so, to a certain extent, its value as a medium of exchange is derived from the fact that it is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government *and* the markets opinion of same. Cryptos are fiat currencies backed by the nothing other than the hopes and prayers of it's holders.

Here is the one year chart of Bitcoin:

Attachment 495497

Maybe my view is colored by the fact that I intend to retire in the next 10 years, but that isn't anything I would consider as a store of value. A speculative investment? Absolutely, but there are plenty of speculative investments that are backed by tangible assets and cash flows like REITs and any number of publicly traded company stocks.

I wouldn't be shocked as more and more countries may make crypto-currencies illegal. At first it was likely viewed as some new fad that many expected would never take off like it did. But with the growing acceptance and use and availability, especially among younger people, it looks like it can pose an actual threat to the monetary systems of established countries as a possible replacement to the use of existing national currencies, like the U.S. dollar.

In and of itself, that may not necessarily be a bad thing, but were it to become so pervasive in society, the volatility of crypto-currencies could have a devastating effect on certain segments of a population, primarily the poor. It is one thing for the poor to not have a lot of money (ie: dollars), but at least they can rest assured that dollar will always be worth a dollar. With crypto though, those values are constantly changing, and if there is a sudden downturn in value, that can be extremely harmful to people that overnight now may not even be able to buy necessities.

Plus, governments have no real way to possibly control the adverse effects of crypto-currencies, and likely far less effective and/or timely ways to mitigate those negative effects when they inevitably do occur. With dollars, the U.S. Treasury can do things like quantitative easing, and put more currency into the system, or have the Federal Reserve adjust their interest rates to exert some influence and control over the availability of money in the economy, and thus help counter and slow inflation and recessionary trends.

The U.S. is a capitalistic society, with the basic idea that the government is supposed to try and stay out of the economic affairs of businesses and individuals as much as possible. But everyone still looks to the government to take action in times of economic distress and downturns. If crypto becomes that pervasive, it could seriously damage our government's ability to do that.

I wonder if at some point there aren't some governments that just decide to create and monitor their own crypto-currency, and offer that to their citizens as a single, approved crypto method for transacting business in their country, and thereby replace all the privately created ones that the governments have a far less greater chance to understand, or control. These other crypto-currencies out there wouldn't necessarily be outlawed or cease to exist, they just wouldn't be approved and used for common, everyday transactions, just like they originally started out.

I really don't have a complete comprehension of crypto-currency, but have always felt they are truly nothing more than a ponzi scheme. In reality, they really aren't much different than national currencies, like our U.S. dollar which isn't backed by any tangible gold or silver reserves, or anything else, other than the full faith and credit of the United States government. While that may not be or mean much to many people, at least it is something. Who, or what, exactly stands behind any crypto-currency?

Jeff,

I think you beat me to it. Didn't see your last post before putting up mine. I'm of a similar position that crypto-currencies may be undermining regular, national currencies in countries around the world. And that actions towards them, as already put in place by China, may become the norm for the rest of the world at some point. We shall see.

Yup. My daughter is a working freelance artist/illustrator/creator, and NFT's backed by crypto's have decimated her industry.

I'm not speaking of the more traditional at this point "Bitcoin", but the spin-off Ethereums, Dogecoins, etc... of the world.

There's a small group of prominent artists acting as figureheads and cash cows (ie Beeple), who are part of the "upline", while cajoling less established artists to get in on the NFT game, by buying "Tokens" (sound familiar), with promises of riches and Ferrari's.

My daughter actually had an NFT startup reach out to her, to create characters for their "Universe". What they were offering, for her, would have been a substantial amount of money. I'm not sure they ever made clear what they were going to actually pay her with, but she turned them down immediately after seeing a contract. Compared it to an "Indecent Proposal". It apparently wasn't' enough for her to be able to wash the bad taste out of her mouth, it would have created. She says, they'll probably end up trying to steal her work anyways, but it wasn't worth having her name attached to this con.

The real con, is the people convincing others to buy their "Tokens", with YOUR real money, and then getting out before the whole thing comes crashing down, or it becomes so convoluted trying to transfer your Ethereum into real money, you give up and are stuck cheerleading the whole thing...hoping the illusion will hold up long enough for you to get your money out.

It's one part MLM, one part Ponzi scheme and one part money laundering scheme.

Scary thing is that so many entities (MLB, NBA, WWE, etc., etc..) are so blindly buying into the promised riches of this NFT grift, even though they have no idea themselves, what they are getting themselves into.

"Decentralized" BTW, is just code word for unregulated, unlicensed, un-trackable (yeah right), and un-insured. Oh, you lost your flash drive or your password? Tough tits, fudge off! :D

I'm just a negative nancy jealous hater though, so take out of that what you will. :)

Bob, I think we differ on whether cryptos represent a threat to national currencies. I don't see that at all. Certainly, both the US Dollar and the various cryptos are both fiat money. But, money takes on two roles: a store of value and a vehicle for speculative investments. The dollar can do both, but I don't see cryptocurrencies ever taking on the first role. The dollar has been and currently remains the world's reserve currency. If it gets supplanted, I would see the renminbi taking on the role, not Bitcoin or any of its imitators.

It was my understanding that the regulations related to crytpos were more related to the ease at which they can be used for money laundering and tax avoidance. However, you are the tax expert so I would defer to your opinion on that matter.

There are some cryptos that are stores of value, if that's what you want. Look into USDC - the US Dollar Coin. It tracks the value of the US dollar, so that you don't have to be invested in a volatile coin if you choose. It's like when I move my investments in my retirement savings account into a cash or bond fund if I expect market turmoil.

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/...he-nobel-prize

Fama's basic thesis is don't try to time the market, because you won't win. Not you personally. Just look at all the people who panicked when the pandemic drove down the market in early 2020 and got out, and then didn't get back in as the market soared back up.

Yep, I'm aware. I'd rather lose the small IMO upside risk during some times than suffer the downside.

But the research shows you can't really predict what is going to happen when, so assuming you believe in the market over the long term (and if you don't of course you shouldn't be in it period), you're better off just deciding in light of your goals and timeframe what your allocation is between equities, debt (and cash), and more or less riding it out. The guy who founded Vanguard wrote a short but very IMO informative book along these lines, and there's another very similar one written by a very successful guy who became fatally ill and decided to put all his wisdom into a short book. As for being able to predict trends be they down or up, or where the market is heading at any given moment, consider the famous quote by Paul Samuelson: economists have successfully predicted 6 out of the last 4 recessions.

So does the Jordanian dinar and the Panamanian balbao.

By the way, Fama is still active. His advice from a couple of months ago:

Hold a diversified portfolio and forget about it.

Sounds like The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, which is available as a PDF online for those interested.

Yes that's the one. This is the other one.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/14...?ie=UTF8&psc=1

LOL one of the reviews. He could be speaking to Jim Cramer.

Given the daily barrage of investment shows, the non-stop stream of investment advice, the obsession of millions of Americans with the market--as a hobby, a lottery, a game at which you win or lose--this is a productive book to read even if you think you know the "investment answer" to begin with. The public's constant preoccupation with "star" fund managers, with ratings of funds that, after 10 years, tend to converge, whether growth funds or money market funds, in percentages gained and lost--all borders on Freudian narcissistic anal fixation.

Jeff, Wasn't speaking like crypto would totally replace currencies like the dollar. Just thinking if they get into too much daily mundane life, like everyday people even get paid in crypto instead of dollars, and then there is a negative crypto event, it would damage the overall economy and erode people's faith and trust in the government to protect us from such economic disasters. That would carryover to the currency as well since it is an integral part of the overall economy, I would imagine.