Card prices skyrocketing
 

I lived through the 90's card gold rush (albeit as a teenager) and remember the exuberance of that time period with people multiples deep at every table at the Anaheim CA national. But I've never seen anything like what's happening right now to card prices across both modern and vintage and across the spectrum of sports.

I think we've all talked about the increase since last March when COVID set in, but what's happening since mid December I can't explain. Prices double, tripling and more for major rookie offerings across football, basketball and baseball.

Someone posted a YT video with a guy saying that the big money investors (hedge funds etc) have moved into the hobby. Don't know if that's true but could explain what's going on.

What a wild ride and will be interesting to see where and if it ends

I don't think this is any worse than the junk wax craze. Back then, if someone obscure farted on the ball right for half a season, their best rookie card would go from basically a 5-10 cent common up to $10 (Kevin Mitchell, Cecil Fielder, Kevin Seitzer) and there were many thousands each of those cards out there.

People would buy 1000 '88 Fleer Gregg Jefferies instead of one Jason Dominguez or Trae Young numbered card.

And I could be wrong (let me know more examples if I am, would be curious), but I haven't seen much "triple or more" since mid December, except the Lemieux OPC 10 that's currently up for auction. Some top stuff has doubled or a little better in that time, like everything Jordan '86 to '88, but I haven't noticed much 3-5 times or more gains in that period

I saw you have a lot of super high end card for sale, you should be happy that you're making a lot of money. big money investor from what looks like is true. stimulus extra money and working from home limiting spending won't land you to buy $10k+ card. Another thing i see is the fed continues to print money. Stocks in reality are way overbought. Investing in housing for rental due to covid now rents has gone down a lot and you might not able to collect rent. what else can you park the money? gold? bitcoin?
Sportscard looks like the new trend maybe similar to earlier days of bitcoin but at least you have a physical asset to hold. And investor have option to play safe or volatile(modern/vintage). meanwhile many of the big money investor probably a collector when they were a kid

Don't think there's ever been a time where there's been more $100,000+ cards for sale on ebay.

This :

https://goldinauctions.com/2017_Pani...-LOT73069.aspx

Seriously??

That is insane. I would rather have T206 Cobbs that a signed patch card of Mahomes. Current bid at $160K would buy a lot of Cobbs....Johnsons...and Mathewson's.

A wise man (Hi Scott Levy :)) once said to me, "Try to buy the best player, from the best set, in the best condition."

Not saying I've successfully done that always, but the point is, if you're collecting T206, try for Cobb, Matty, Cy, with tougher backs...(or Wagner, Hi Ryan! :))...if you're collecting Goudey, try for Ruth, Gehrig, in the best condition you can, if you're collecting Cracker Jacks, Cobb, Matty, Jackson...if you're collecting post-war/Modern- Mantle, Jordan, Gretzky, Jeter, etc. And try to get their rookies, or most popular sets their in.

(Now add to that, Trout, Mahomes, LeBron, etc).

Seek out the best cards, of the players, in the best condition, you can get. It sounds simple/easy, but one can easily go down a collecting road that's too niche or esoteric (nothing wrong with that, but that does limit buyers if & when you decide to resell).

(PS- Just looked on eBay, seems like Jeter's SP is the next to skyrocket.)

Of all the crazy modern prices I've seen lately, especially in basketball, that Mahomes actually seems the most reasonable. I still won't be buying it, but would be willing to bet if we revisit this thread in a couple years it will look like a bargain today.

Assuming he doesn't get injured.

The younger generation of america is smart, has good jobs, and is wealthy; very wealthy. On higher end key GOATS in all Baseball Basketball and Football of Nrmt or better grades I can only see a continuation of prices going up from here.

It's great for the hobby/industry.

In 2020 I bought more modern product than I have in the past 10 years. In part because of speculation/high card prices and also because I am in an essential industry so we were not greatly effected by what Covid did to the economy. My vintage purchasing remained about the same, but it is getting harder to find deals for the items I collect.

I don't see myself purchasing anywhere near what I did last yr. I'm sure I will have some impulse buys, but actively hitting store after store looking for blasters won't happen this year. The new administration will vey likely have a negative impact on my industry with increased regulation, taxes and fuel prices. So I will be tightening the belt, so to speak, in most of my discretionary spending habits.

Young generation just begin in their vintage adventure
They make too much in modern need to diversify their collection

I am very happy to see my collection appreciating in value but I think anyone who pays 3K for a PSA 1 Cobb T206 is going to regret it.

When it comes to the top cards condition is not detrimental to price increases. I paid more for a card with writing on it than I ever thought I would and I am happy to own it at that price.

Is this card worth 3K?

I think the demise of communism and growth of free-market capitalism in the past several decades has created a tremendous amount of wealth and left a LOT of money floating around, and I think this will continue for a while as more countries decide to stop being stupid and get on the prosperity bandwagon. I also believe that a sizeable portion of that money should have been going to pay off the party we've been having on our children, grandchildren, and more distant generations. At some point that same free market will come calling for its due--think rolling over a national debt of 30 trillion at 10% interest and see what's left for the rest of the budget--and there will be a serious rebalancing of spending priorities everywhere. But until that austerity gets imposed on us, we might as well enjoy our hobbies--as economists love to say, in the long run we're all dead--and who knows, when they start rolling the money-printing presses fast enough to try to pay off our bills from all those years of deficits, our cards might just become the new standard of value!

If somebody paid it, then, uh, yes it is.

Worth today and paid to acquire are two different principals. I would not want to pay close to 3K for a PSA 1 of any pose. But I already have two I still didn't pay 3K combined for so I don't really have to worry about it either:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...f73be0b1_z.jpg

I think it's a bubble, and it's in modern cards moreso than vintage. If the 3 year old Mahomes card is worth 200K, then that Cobb is worth 3K. This is irrational exuberance if I've ever seen it. I read on cnbc today Robinhood-type retail investors are trying to short squeeze hedge funds: Link. I think some folks are just throwing crazy money at different investment vehicles right now. Is this really the new normal, I don't know.

The Aaron mania is really something. I never thought his cards would go this bonkers following his passing. That didn't happen as much with the other HOFers that left us recently. Of course, Aaron is in a class by himself compared to those other greats, and his cards were probably undervalued for a very long time certainly relative to the Mick and so it sorta makes sense. His RC had a huge run-up in the past year+ and then he passes away and it jumps 50% overnight. It's a beautiful card and on the short list of post WW2 most important cards no doubt. But it's not like it's a particularly rare issue. Then again, supply/demand. Before he died you had 500 guys looking for his RC at any given moment. Now it's probably 2,500 guys or something.

I also wonder if the passing of someone of his cultural significance has drawn attention to HOF rookie cards in general. You gotta think people are doing the math and thinking Willie Mays is a great investment right now. Even relatively dormant and high pop RCs like the 1960 Yaz card have seen quite a jump here in the past 30-60 days.

It's great if you were able to get in on some of these cards a year ago, or even a month ago, which is probably everyone on these boards. So you also have the phenomena where most hobbyists are playing with house money as they watch the value of their collections jump up day after day. And so between that and covid and the stiumulus you've got guys throwing money around, not just the ultra rich either. I can't say what is likely to happen but the short run looks good for more growth. Not sure about the medium/long run.

I won a 1951-52 Parkhurst Richard PSA 6 in an auction 5 years ago for around $500 and what they are going for now just makes me shake my head.

8 years ago I was the only bidder on this card and won it for $500

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...1608f2c0_z.jpg

When a non-descript new sofa and couple of matching chairs run you the same number, that you will discard or sell for peanuts in ten years at a garage sale, then yes, owning something that will be preserved and desired by many going forward is easily worth 3k.

People need to dispose of their imagination that limits card collecting to a casual affordable hobby whose focus was assembling full collections of certain issues, or teams, or favorite players, and onto the new reality that today we value collecting and keeping certain things that speak to us. And JUST those things that speak to us, not the surrounding flotsam.
In Net54 speak, it's about being a type collector or HOF collector rather than set collector. Using your available resources to target only what you most desire to see every day.

Young people 20-40 years old aren't as wedded to the aquisition of their first home as a settling stone foundation to an early marriage, or future wealth basis.
They want to surround themselves with things that speak to their experiences, some sporting, some musical perhaps, and a litany of others.
They get paid great money, they're not raising kids, they either grew up during or hearing later about the dot com bubble and how some made their riches, the fact their parents bet and continue to bet most of their entire retirement on some vague thing called stocks and futures and stuff - most of which are based on trading and questionable book keeping rather than a true representation of companies production and worth - and think 'sure', a green Cobb sounds cool and at least as worthy of worth.
'No, maybe can't afford a $40K example, but 3K, yep - is it legible?'
The condition isn't the qualifier, but rather the opportunity for ownership against competing interest.

If you don't revamp your thinking of what this 'hobby' has evolved into, you'll be stuck wondering the same stuff over and over again and unable to understand the opportunities it will raise for you......especially if you have reasonable hobby knowledge.

These new investors don't learn thaaaat much before making a decision, they go with name recognition, where they see the money moving and seeming general interest to reside.
So if as a vintage hobbyist you know the hobby icons that will be most valuable going forward, the scarcity of those players issues and historical desirability thereof, you will be able to navigate and safely either purchase to own, or trade in and out of to improve your collection or wealth going forward.

Strap up if you want to participate, it's a new world.

It’s already started with Mays. The few cards I was looking at got out of my range overnight.

Yes, but that's like me saying I paid 600K for my house that is worth 1.3 now. Would I pay 1.3 for it, probably not because I already paid 600K for it, would somebody pay 1.3 for it yes. Could it be worth less than 1.3? of course, that's the cyclical nature of markets. Will a green Cobb like that sell for $800 again, maybe, I'm not sure what market forces would have to take place in order for that to happen but its going to be awhile before a Green Cobb 1 sells for $800 again. So if somebody wants one in their collection they have to pay the going rate, if the rate is too high they won't. Is an Aaron rookie worth 6K more this week than 2 weeks ago? Not to me but to plenty of people it is.

All fun stuff to talk about.

The stratospheric heights modern is going to may be a bubble, but long term I think it will hold higher value than all but Ruth and a few others - Gehrig, Jackie Robinson, Mantle, Mays, Aaron - in the vintage world.
The 80's to present day players are the sporting icons these last few generations have grown up with. It's this group of new collectors that are establishing the worth to own limited stock of the rookie card of players they've actually lived alongside and experienced first hand.
The vintage stuff wasn't birthed the same way..... it became widely popular with later hobby historians and deeply sport related enthusiasts.

I foresee RC's of Trout, MJ, Lebron, Jeter, Brady, and perhaps a few others like Montana/Rice, Mahomes, etc to be higher priced cards than almost all vintage.

It's not dumb to me, actually makes perfect sense
Old cardboard isn't fundamentally more valuable than new cardboard, it's the associations with a large enough collecting community that means the most.

I've actually grown to like the shiny stuff, I only really buy a little Lebron and Mahomes, but can enjoy the design and materials and limited print runs to create really pretty modern artwork.
There will be waaaaay more modern collectors who carry this hobby forward than the type of hard core knowledge hobbyists you'd find here on 54'.
Not a bad or good thing for mine, it just is.

Agree Especially with Modern NBA a lot of Foreign PRC Cash ! They love Jordan Kobe and Lebron and they have a lot of hens too.

All good points. In the end it's good with the bad. Good my cards are worth more but bad I have to pay more for others. At the same time it's a lot easier to finance suddenly expensive cards if you're selling your own suddenly expensive cards.

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws or differentiation like 'backs'.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k T206 Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

Agree it’s very rare that I see the younger generation set building say a guy who is in mid 30’s Wall Street manager makes 500k plus a year. He says he wants a 52 Mantle Jackie and Mays in PSA 7’s I ask him what about the rest of the set how are you doing on it. He says I don’t care for them I just want the Stars. High end common set building I think is a thing of the past.

That's a good point, As a collector it gives you flexibility to adjust/fine tune your collection when you have a lot of equity in a card you've held for a long time.

Really? Come on now..

Mistake I've made is selling a card without having it's replacement lined up. I figured I'd sell it, get paid, then go shopping. Well the sale went fine, but it's been months now and I can't find the right replacement. In the meantime, prices seem to go up up up.

I joined NET54 while getting back into collecting about 5 years ago. The conversation was the same then with plenty of speculation that prices were bound to pull back and there was a bubble forming. Like everyone I passed on a number of cobbs, Ruth’s and others at the time waiting for prices to level. I am still kicking myself. I still don’t own one and now I look at a $3000 cobb and ask am I ever going to get a shot at THESE levels again. Whether it’s cobb, ruth, Aaron, mantle etc it’s tough to put a value on personal collecting experience and wants. We’re all addicted to some degree and that’s hard to balance with a market moving this quickly.

my 2 cents is this all has to do with the Fed pinning interest rates to zero and keeping them there for the foreseeable future. This is driving a ton of money into all types of investments, each riskier than the next. cards, like art have become an investment to many.
$3k for a PR green cobb is no more crazy than $900 for Tesla stock or 3 times whatever SPAC XYX was worth the day before.
while many are struggling, many more are flush with cash and being purposely pushed out the risk spectrum by the Fed.

Don't wait.

and being purposely pushed out the risk spectrum by the Fed

100% agree and I can't stress enough how this is planting the seeds of some pretty heavy losses for people that can't afford it in the next downturn.

Absolutely Correct !

Learned this lesson over the summer. Sold my 53 Topps Jackie PSA 3 intending to use the money for the PSA 4 I need for my set. The 4 moved too quickly to a point where I can't justify the cost for now.

Did you see the T206 prices realized in all the David Hall (Heritage) auctions? Prices keep going up, and setting records. A common BL460 actually sold for $18k the other night...not $8k anymore. The big sets (T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey, 52 Topps) will always be in demand. It’s been that way for decades, and no signs of slowing down. The great thing with this hobby is the immense variety of “flavors”, something for everyone.

I agree with this, BUT....
 

I think it is a generation or 2 away before it starts to happen.

Out of all the new younger card collectors/investors, one would have to argue at some point enough of them will eventually gravitate to big name vintage - then what, that currently spendy Cobb/W. Johnson/Matty/Ruth/Gehrig etc. will cost a whole lot more.

Just sittin' on my stuff with a smile.

Yeah, I too have dabbled in modern last year or two, raw. I have about 175 cards into PSA for grading. The turnaround is crazy long these days. But look at it this way, if I already had them back in reasonable turnaround time I would probably have sold a bunch. Now I am forced to sit and wait for my submission ... while prices keep rising, and rising. Thank you PSA for taking such a long time - will get even more for them later.

Agree with both your points, however how many of the 'everyone' that wants T206 commons/Cracker Jack commons/Goudey commons/52' Commons will remain in the hobby going forward is the point I was making.
The people supporting much of the vintage hobby and especially the deep pocketed ones have been doing so since the early 2000's and before.
They knew what they liked before it cost a bunch, were hunting rarity then and ever since, and still have the where with all and interest to 'complete' their searching desires.

I don't believe many of those collectors are going to be replaced in 20 years time. While this is the stuff of which we've all been enamored for the last 60 years, its relevance to those born since the 1980's is far less than what you might hope.

I never said all, I was careful to do so. Younger collectors find this site all the time and begin their journeys just as many of us have done over the decades.
But if they are competing against fewer collectors as those of us in our 50's and older die off, prices for esoteric no-name player stuff won't be there.
IMO.

It's a long course call, am totally happy for you to believe otherwise.
It's when talk of bubbles, and growth, and where that growth has it's belly, that I think sky high numbers for non HOF players are most risky for massive correction.

Gotcha. Fair enough. So, in your scenario, down the line, you're saying HOF/high-profile vintage players, will still be in demand (within T206, CJ, Goudey, 52 Topps, etc), but commons not so much?

As a significant economic enterprise, sports card and memorabilia buying and selling is a young endeavor, roughly 40 years old. In that time, prices may have briefly stalled a time or two, but in general have risen steadily throughout. I don't think two generations of this experience is enough to claim some kind of permanent situation, though, and as others have pointed out, in particular there are compelling macroeconomic reasons to explain the recent surge, including simple momentum. Much of what we collect will have continuing appeal, along with all kinds of other antiques and collectibles, but a mere generation or two pushing prices higher and higher over a few decades doesn't give me the confidence that at some point that momentum won't slow, stop, or even reverse. Everything always seems to be the way it has always been, until it isn't anymore.

Yup.

Ive been buying bread issues and t210s orange borders ,just saying

A trend to watch for the next generations maybe the Pokémon Phenomena. The young and older collectors and traders alike are going crazy over these cards. Brand new Charizard chase cards are selling for hundreds of dollars plus. (Charizard doesn't have a bad year or ACL's) Many of these folks are now buying new retail sports card boxes to flip or use to trade for Pokémon cards, boxes, and visa versa, thus fueling the prices for both. Point being this is bringing many Pokémon collectors into the sports cards market! ( For years to come this will help support sport card prices across the board?)

I got back into collecting in March 2020. Not because I thought there was a great investment opportunity, but because I all of a sudden decided I needed Mattingly rookies I couldn't afford as a kid. Trapped at home I took comfort in the nostalgia of cards.

After securing every card I had when I was a kid (primarily rookies from Dale Murphy - Roger Clemens), I turned to vintage. I went in heavy and overpaid most likely (at least in Aug/Sep), but am glad I did. I was able to get a handful of really special cards (Gehrig, DiMaggio, Robinson), but watched the Cobbs of the world gradually pick up enough speed that now there's no chance. I always say I'm going to buy something and sell it to buy something else, but can't stand the thought of selling.

I troll the BST threads/auction houses, but for now I'm back to building a Mattingly Master set. It's the fun of the chase with a budget that my wife won't leave me over. :)

For the bubble to pop, people like me need to stop buying so many cards. That isn't going to happen (for me at least).

I think (ironically enough) we are also a factor in causing the prices to rise. Let me explain.
Those of us who have been active for decades in the hobby are feeling like we are about to get priced out so we are pulling the trigger on big ones we have always wanted and even paying a little more than we wanted to. We do this because of the fear it will be out of our price range before long.
I know I am guilty of doing that in the last 15 or so months.
It is a fascinating conundrum.

I noticed this as well...I had couple Mays cards in my "watch list" for auctions ending last Sunday. They closed at 2x what they would have about a week ago. I was expecting the passing of Aaron to cause a spike in Aaron cards...but I was NOT expecting Aaron's passing to affect Mays cards. But I think that's what happened.