How do you mentally adjust on pricing?
 

I have noticed that I have bought very little in the last 18-24 months. My post war set run is full except for the 49/51 Bowman and 52 Topps and I am not sure when/if those will happen, but I have found myself in a situation where I can't seem to find a place to jump back in.

I got back in head and feet first in 2012. Pricing was pretty stable for those first 8 years, but as we all know, it has jumped in the last year+

I have no problem with the growth, my current collection is enjoying appreciation. However, I am finding it tough to buy anything because I have 2012-2015 prices in my head. I have been following certain cards for quite some time - for example, a 1960 Yaz PSA 6 used to be 160-180. I would bid on a few auctions looking for a bargain and usually get beat late as it would cross into the 160-180 range. At some point, if I wanted it bad enough, I would just pay what I needed to pay, but I would feel like the fool who bought at the top of the market, and wouldn't pull the trigger. There were a few others like that that I had raw but wanted to upgrade into a graded card. '69 Mantles were around 200 for PSA 6 YL and 1000 for WL. I would get close and lose at the end - but hey, at least I didn't "overpay".

So now, with 2021 prices firmly in place, those cards would cost me 2-3x that price I would see all of the time in the past. Prices might settle, but they won't retrench back to those older levels. But, my mind can't get over those prices that I was so used to seeing for so long and I don't think I will ever buy one now just out of principle (and I have a raw example).

When I buy into the financial markets, I dollar cost average every two weeks. It is systematic and I don't even pay attention to what the market is trading at that day, but when I look back, I see that I used to buy the S&P at 1800. Now I buy at 4300 but I don't hesitate to buy and yearn for the days of 1800. I can't seem to have that same mentality with cards and it is affecting my ability to build my collection. Whereas, I could accept that there will be continued appreciation over time and there will be a day that I will thank my 2021 self for buying a Goudey Ruth at these cheap prices compared to how much it would cost me in 2035.

Does anyone else suffer from the same challenge? For people who have been collecting much longer than my 8 years, how have you been able to continue to buy over long periods of time?

I know that we are all tired of talking about card values and the money aspect of the hobby - but it was more about the psychological aspect of anchoring prices into your head and being able to buy beyond that anchor.

I've been slowly building a T206 set and face the same challenge. I used to pick up well-centered VG 3 PSA/SGC commons for $40 each. A 4 would cost me $60. These days, that budget would get me an off-centered 2.

The "one that got away" (it continues to haunt me) was a Walter Johnson roughly 6 or 7 years ago. I believe it was a PSA 3. A fellow board member was upgrading theirs and offered their undercopy to me via PM. I passed, primarily because I was chasing quantity instead of quality. Getting that WaJo now would cost me 5-10 times as much as it would have back then.

Fortunately, I've learned (albeit slowly) along the way. I focus on HOFers and players like Dahlen & Chase.

With regard to buying over time, I actually take a dollar-cost-averaging style approach to buying sports cards. Actually, it's more of a monthly budget. Point being, I've managed to "stay the course" for quite a while. How have I been able to continue? Buy what I like and like what I buy.

I totally get you. Some cards I desired have appeared out of reach now. But I love collecting too much to stop. I take the advice of more seasoned collectors, if you buy quality items the prices will be retained.

Psychologically, I had to transition to cards that I can still afford. I've moved back into junk wax (the era of my childhood), MiLB, and collecting the Cincinnati Reds. The wow factor isn't the same, but the thrill of the hunt remains which is what I guess I yearn for.

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There's a Buddhist saying; the past is regret, the present is now, the future is worry.

I've only been back in for a little over a year and started with maybe 50 cards from my kid collection, including about 8 key cards. For me, when I attempt something I have to have a plan that keeps me from losing my focus so I established very specific goals and built a list of 300 cards I wanted for my PC. Here are a couple of goals I started with;

1. Buy back the cards I sold when I was broke AF and couldn't pay rent.
2. Buy specific cards that I wanted as a kid but couldn't afford.
3. Build a well curated collection that would satisfy me emotionally and I'm not sure how to put it into words but make my kids proud of what I built after I'm gone.

Lessons learned along the way.

1. If you're going to commit to collecting today you have to commit financially and make sacrifices in other areas. I sacrificed a 52 Jackie so I could buy a 14CJ Cobb. I would do that everyday because that Cobb was more important than that Jackie.
2. In a rapidly increasing market you can't have it all so you better know what you want. Stay away from the squirrels unless you can make money on them.
3. Recognize what's accelerating fast and if it's on your list buy it as soon as you can. I remember the 1st time I paid >5K for a card (4.5 Wilson Franks Williams) it was a pivitol moment for me because that is a lot of money. In for a penny, in for a pound and all that.
4. You're going to overpay for what you want.
5. There is an incredible group of collectors out there that live on an elevated level of trust and integrity, not money.

I also found this place and was sucked in by Leon and his pre-war henchmen to really get serious about my collection (still considering a class action lawsuit on that one).

To your point about dollar cost averaging, if you were willing to pay 700 for a card that sold for 1k and you lost, put that 700 into an account, do that every time you lose an auction and you'll be surprised how much money you put away. At that point you can afford any card that is important to you. I've lost lots of auctions only to be relieved at the opportunity of time to earn more money for a better opportunity.

And finally, cuz I'm getting ranty, if you didn't buy it at 1K, that time has passed or that card wasn't meant for you, is it worth 1500 to you now? If not let it go. That's the past, stop looking backward and look forward, that's the fun part of building a collection.

Good luck and happy collecting!

I've found that psychologically it can sometimes be easier to upgrade a lower grade card, rather than buy a higher grade in the first place. I know it logically doesn't make sense, but if I bought a poor condition T205 for, say, $20 a few years ago, and can resell it for $25 or so now, then I don't mind shelling out another $20-$25 on top of the resale for a fair to good copy now. Even if I would have objected to paying $45-50 originally.

So one strategy might be to buy a lower grade copy now, with the intent to upgrade down the road, and thereby swallow the price increases a bit more incrementally.

Piggybacking on what Phil shared
 

I've been at this for 30+ years. Rewind (insert # of years) and I can relate to the sentiment many times over. In general prices of all goods go up over time. Do you stop buying your favorite food which has increased in price ( I understand food is a necessity, but not any specific food)? I collect/buy/sell what I enjoy. Hindsight has proven 1 thing - it is the cards I didn't buy at any point in time over the past 30 years that "hurt" a lot more than any that I did.

Over the last year I have bought very little as I have not been able to get my head around the pricing. I even flirted with selling my collection, but it really is my retirement job to liquidate it. I did pick up a 1952 Bowman near set that I thought was priced well and I had a mantle already so I finished that up. I have bought a couple of Oh rookies which I think are still nicely priced, but I'm mostly sitting on the sidelines. I have peceived a weakening in the market to an extent, but I don't think it will settle back where it was a couple of years ago.

Nice post. I've been struggling with the same thing.

Regarding the comparison with the S&P 500, I treat that as an investment, the price rises over time and that is fine as the value of my portfolio is also rising and eventually I will start selling at what I hope is at a the higher price.

For cards, I am definately a collector and not an investor. I purchase a card to own it; likely forever. I would rather the card than the money. For example, about 25 years ago the $300 I spent on a raw Ruth (PSA2?) seemed reasonable. I knew I would get more joy out of the Ruth than the $300. Now that I am close to retirement and have the cash, I've thought of upgrading that card, but to pay $25k or so to upgrade doesn't make sense. $2k yes, but to be honest I'd rather the $25k. The fact that my $300 card is now worth $6000 brings me no joy as I have no plan to sell.

I've come to the realization that there are cards I will never own due to their high price. Hank Aaron rookie etc. I will adjust my collecting focus accordingly. It seems I am buying a lot less, sitting on the sideline. I am thinking of narrowing my focus, perhaps giving up some sets, selling or trading those cards to finance higher purchases on cards in sets I am working on. I'll be missing that National this year but will hit the big local show later in the year (Shriner's). Hopefully, this will reenergize me. Not sure what I will do if $1 cards are $5 and $5 cards are $20.

Mentally Prepare By Accepting it or Not Buying. Sadly I’m priced out of almost every card I want in the shape I collect. I won’t collect lesser shape just to buy something. I’m just going to give up and be happy with what I have :-), if it comes down and I can buy again great if not I’m fine too.

It’s no longer A Blue Collar Hobby For Me.

I do have to admit that my buying power has increased a lot over the last couple of years, but even before the runup I was struggling with where to go next in my collection. I have complete sets back to 1961 and have done several vintage sets.

I'll probably do a shoebox collection 1957 set next. I did the same with a 1959 a couple years ago and it was fun, not too financially taxing.

Will I pay $3200 for a vg Aaron RC? Nope. The common stuff will come back down some from its peaks. Patience is the key. There's enough of it that it will be around. Prices are already falling from the late winter/early spring peak. The real rare stuff (not that BS condition rarity but actual numerical rarity) isn't affected one way or the other. Just grab it when you find it and be glad you could. If you are monetarily-oriented, buy what's not hot, like memorabilia.

hahaha.... so true!

Other hobbies like photography, gardening, gaming, etc,... are more about techniques and skill rather than money. There are some expenses to them of course, but not to the degree of as this hobby has.

I'm a very low end collector, so I can't afford much. I'm finding other aspects of this great hobby that give me happiness and enjoyment.

Great topic. I'm a collector, not an investor, also. What I buy, I plan to keep. The 10 or so cards that I have sold over the years, I've had regrets about because I know that I will never be able to afford buying them back now - Mayos' Kid Nichols, OJ Radbourn, E97 Young, E107 Plank...

I'm a vintage type collector with an eye towards HOFers and stars. Which makes it difficult because as I see cards from sets that I don't have, I now typically buy commons because HOFers are through the roof. If it's a rare enough set that I need a card from, I'll sometimes now buy lower grade pieces. I operate within a modest monthly budget and it definitely has gotten more difficult. I'm very thankful for the high value cards that I have in my collection that I bought 20-35 years ago, because I'd never be able to afford them today.

Buy on the dip. Right now prices have dropped considerably off their highs. As prices stabilize, it is a buying opportunity to get in near the new floor. Prices will eventually rise again on rare or key cards. I sold off a few things when the market was hot and have some money to put back in to take away the sting of these new higher prices.

I really try to look forward and not back in order to avoid regrets in life but I can't help wishing I'd pursued this '67 Topps set with more diligence back when I first got into it a four or five years ago. I made a priority of other sets and areas of the hobby and now I'm looking at the cost of the last 18 high number SPs and cringing. Part of the problem is knowing that I had the complete set back in '67 and just gave the whole thing away piecemeal to a few friends when my family moved.

I figure I have two choices... I can sell some stuff to get the money for the last 18, or I can just wait it out. I'm not a seller and I don't relish the idea of doing so know. But I have a couple of cards that would probably cover the cost of the '67s I need easily. Luckily my fantasy football winning last fall got me a nice Seaver rookie. :D

I've been mostly buying raw cards during the pandemic. Majority of people stay away from raw cards because they think they're either fake or have been altered. This has allowed me to buy them at decent prices. Graded cards are way too expensive now, especially PSA!

Buy what you want when you can afford it and you’ll always be happy you did.

Totally agree. I would add that you will never regret selling a card if you never sell a card.

I stayed away most of the year, mostly due to the fact shows had been canceled - just started to buy again this spring. Prices are higher - but if you look hard enough, some good buys are still out there.

Enjoy!

Jimmy

Well, my suggestion is to collect something new. A few months ago I started on a mid-grade 52T set. I have no issue with paying current prices because I don't have the memories of how those cards used to be priced. So in that sense ignorance is bliss.

For me that is more productive than pouting over the holes in my 69T set and debating whether to pay 10x more for the Nolan Ryan than I could have got it for 5 years ago.

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The two cards that I have bought this year are a 35 Goudey 4-1 Foxx and a 34-36 Diamond Star Foxx. I have no idea what they cost in 2015 and, while I am sure that I paid much more than then, ignorance is indeed bliss.

The visual of the 69 Ryan was spot on.

I don’t.

I have moved my collecting habits to other aspects of the hobby I consider undervalued or more inline with a believable value. For those things I see as ridiculous I have paused my collecting until the investment more so meets my perceived value. I have learned in the past 40 years of collecting that it always seems to cyclically come back around to my wheelhouse of perception in time.

I suppose the key is to have fun. if I cannot enjoy collecting I will stop. In the meantime I just sit and wait patiently.

I'm down to maybe 100 cards to complete various sets. But I can't go for most of them at current levels. I have been collecting since 1965. So for now, I'm building small sets of my favorites, who aren't always big ticket - Jim Bouton, Bobby Murcer, cards that I can put in sheets and look at. I may sell my 55 All American set because I don't get a kick out of it in the same way.

The pain from cards I didn’t just pay the asking price for far outweighs the pain from overpaying.

This is my thought process:

People need to enjoy life and have hobbies. Some peoples' hobbies cost a lot, like traveling, going to lots of music and sporting and other events, and so on. So I figure, if someones' hobby is financially break-even, that's a success. If it's a money maker, that's terrific.

I look at what I have paid for my collection over the years, estimate what I could sell it for today, and that paper profit is the margin I then have to put more money into it.

So, suppose you, over the years, paid $40,000 for your collection that's worth about $100,000 today. You're $60k ahead. Assuming your income and overall finances support it, you've got a $60k budget to work with. If you buy a card for $5,000 that might only resell for $4k, well, now your margin (budget) is down a thousand to $59k. And so on.

The point is, if you can always stay above water - always have your collection be worth more than it cost - then you're ahead and should have no regrets. It sounds like you are way ahead right now, so I would say, buy a few high end quality cards, and have no worries. Down the road, they'll probably be worth more than you paid and that will just increase your margin to justify further acquisitions.

It's all in the way you look at things. If at the end of the proverbial day your collection overall is worth more than what you've put into it, plus you've had fun along the way, that's success pure and simple with no worries.

Simple, if you don’t like the price, you don’t buy the card.

Same boat
 

I am in the same boat, same timeline as you, maybe a couple years earlier. This is what I've done:

1. Buying more raw than graded, graded is where the hype pricing exists. Then I send in to SGC for $30/pop.
2. I've had to accept buying 1 to 2 grades lessor, come around to cards with more wear
3. I started an under $20 & z-folio binder and top loader binder $100 and under of 80s-90s childhood cards or modern local stars (ex: Sidney Crosby). This allows me to buy cards but not overspend, i.e. "scratch the itch" until vintage comes back down a little bit (I hope)
4. Figure out which vintage cards that are deservedly higher now (like Jackie Robinson) and just bite the bullet and pay more.
5. Try to find more old school dealers or motivated sellers that aren't trying to overprice everything
6. Catalogue/ rescan your current collection (started using Flikr, Google Excel to document all my cards). You could also look at finding ways to redisplay your current collection and buying hobby related supplies instead of cards (ex: wall displays, etc.)

Anyway, I feel your pain but there are some ways around it (sort of). In short, I am trying to feel gratitude for what I DO have rather than regretting what I don't...

Depending on your collecting interests, you may consider jumping into a new set/area you haven’t collected before. For example, if you’re strictly a pre-war collector, consider a set from the 50s, 60s or beyond. You won’t have the preconceived idea of what prices should be, and will be less bothered by current asking prices since you don’t have the lower prices in mind.

I haven't bought anything card related since covid began and probably will not untill pricing levels out. I am glad I did some hardcore buying beforehand. I have also come to accept that there are some cards that I will never have, just not willing to spend the money. I have a feeling in the near future there maybe a lot of vintage hitting the market as people retire and sell off.

Of course you are not $60K ahead, unless you sell. If I bought a card for $1k in 1998 and its worth $30k now, I don't really have $29K to spend, and I shouldn't really unless my financial situation warrants it, meaning I have $29k in discretionary savings. Because my fear is that while someone like me might have paid $1k for a card in 1998, I think now, many (most?) people buying a card for $30k are doing it more as an investment believing that in five years they can sell it for $50k. Not that they value owning the card for $30k.

I'm not sure this can go on forever.

All of these issues are what got me heavily into boxing cards nearly 20 years ago. The prices of baseball cards had escalated to the point where I was shut out of an increasing number of cards and it just wasn't fun, so I went into a field where all but the top few cards rarely topped $2500. Didn't hurt that I really enjoy the sport too.

Of course, had I just stayed the course and bought every baseball card I could still afford instead I'd have been way ahead financially, but whadayagonnado?

One thing that constantly amazes me is the deep pools of capital, whether it comes from dealers, collectors, investors private equity groups or Chinese tongs in Taiwan. And the market is so fluid, especially Ebay and the Web, it is almost like buying stocks and bonds, with settlements nearly instantaneous. I am not sure I like this "Brave New World" so much.

A few quick thoughts:

Not always the case, but grading standards for psa and lately SGC have tightened, so that EX card from 6 years ago might be a 3-4 today, so buying lower grades isnt such a compromise. Look for the card not the grade.

The SP500 comp is a poor one, unless you are talking about some incredible spike, the SP500 can be valued relative to earnings, and they usually move up over time. Cards are pure speculation where supply and demand determines “value”.

I paid up for an Erving rookie in Ex-Mt recently, it was newly graded 6, looked better than that to me! Sorry i didnt buy a 7 or 8 a few years ago, for sure, but it fills a hole in a set…so be it!

If you are set collecting…buy the expensive big cards FIRST!

Not sure I agree SGC has changed, to me they are exactly the same as they have always been, which I love. PSA however do appear to be less lenient, i.e. harsher. JMO from a couple recent subs.

Over the years since I started really collecting in 77, prices for the usual cards have pretty much raised in steps. They'll be one price for a while, then have a sudden jump, then be stable again.

It's probably why I have stretches of relative inactivity besides getting distracted with my other hobbies.

I don't adjust quickly enough, and for a time the prices all seem too high. Then I get comfortable, just about in time for the next jump, which I usually miss.

Whether or not people like to think of their collections in terms of money, they are a store of wealth. Money goes in and eventually money will come out (if you don't sell, and your kids don't sell, your grandkids will.)

Of course you can't hold a card and spend its appreciation too, that's why I say Assuming your income and overall finances support it... And the value of your collection will fluctuate with the market, so while the money you put into it remains fixed, the paper profit will increase or decrease over time.

My point is that if you can afford to put new money in, and if you can maintain a plus valuation, then you're doing well, and should be able to go on adding to the collection even when prices seem too high. Paying high prices hurts if you think it's money you are losing or wasting, but putting more money into an already profitable collection shouldn't have negativity associated with it (again, assuming your financial situation is strong.)

That’s just human nature. People think/talk about the ‘one that got away’ way more than when they got something in all facets of life. I can go down a list of sports items I didn’t pull the trigger on over the past 5-10 Years much easier than I can on when I bought something. Wish it was the other way around!

I think the finance types call it "dollar cost averaging".

The 'these aren't worth squat, really" mantra is as stale as 1985's bread. Cards have been an asset class for decades. The odds of them going to zero are negligible. What the Chicken Little types (and I am one of them) are saying is that the current price escalation is unsustainable and will be corrected, and we are reluctant to buy now and hold for 5-10 years after market corrects just to get back to the same place. I am playing an intermediate game. I plan to start unwinding my collection when I retire, as something to do that will generate some cash flow/income and be fun and interesting. That may not be for another 10-20 years. I buy with that in mind, which is why I am sitting out most of this now.