I think they'll end up going higher as well. At least in the short term. A new stimulus check is on the horizon.

Just the beginning. For those long time aaron holder. Our card value simply was stall for 6-7 yrs. We're just beginning stage to move up

So what should I ask for mine?

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ps%20Black.jpg

Recent quote from Ken Goldin on Sportscollectorsdaily:

“There are significant high net worth individuals who have decided to put millions of dollars into sports cards,” said Ken Goldin, Founder of Goldin Auctions. "New people are coming in each day.”

There's your demand, and we all know what that does to a fixed supply. I believe this has much more impact than the 50 year old guy returning to the hobby after 20 years off to pick up a few of the cards he missed.

I almost exclusively collect raw cards, but I'm seriously wondering if I should get these fellas of mine graded...

https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...58&oe=603F97B5

https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...96&oe=6042275A

https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...ff&oe=6042748C

Those are certainly worthy, and like many say and agree with, if you want to maximize your profits, then grading is the only answer.

Beautiful cards, Brian. Would love to own that Joe Black!

Yes, provided you are OK with not seeing them again until Thanksgiving. I've not bothered to have anything graded in more than a year. No need unless I plan to sell it.

Just joining the conversation but Adam I agree with this 100%. I have a few cards I have picked up recently that I am dying to know what they would grade at (kind of to evaluate my sense of spotting values in raw). They are personal collection only and have no intention to sell them. We’re talking pretty small potatoes like a few hundred bucks each if they get the grade range I think. As excited as I am to pull the trigger I know waiting another year or so will make the grading process - wait time and possibly even cost likely a lot better than in this “flip minded” current bottleneck!

Our cards being worth something is always kind of a nice fallback, a hobby which you can get something out of if you really need to - and not something like owning a boat where you just essentially pour money through a hole in the water as your "asset" only depreciates more and more over time.

What I hate about these boom and bust markets though, is how it makes us feel about our cards on a daily basis. Sure, I'm glad they are worth "something", but all this FOMO (whether we admit it or not...) creeping in causes us to question our decisions, and forces a financial view upon things when in some cases it wasn't necessarily there before. I don't blame people for taking an interest in what certain cards are worth, especially if whatever is stashed away in their closet or safety deposit box may suddenly be now exponentially more valuable. It's just human nature. Especially if it would help someone retire sooner, or something like that. But it forces that devilish catch-22 of having to consider some of the financial aspects, when for many hobbyists for a long time - it wasn't necessarily about that.

So, for me at least - all this valuation bubble stuff is very much a mixed bag of tricks.

Well said, exactly how I feel. Boom/Bust, I don't care, it's not why I love this hobby. If I ever need to sell, (I have before to fund other hobbys) it's just nice to know I can get what I put into it...and if that busts out I will simply by more at reduced prices. Win/Win

Thanks. I will admit though it's funny to realize that a card you thought was worth about $200 is now selling for $550 though. I found that out on something last week. No plans to sell though, so I'm trying to treat it like a big moot point.

I can't see the stimulus checks being the cause of the current prices in the hobby.

Someone making $75k and getting a $1400 stimulus check is more than likely not paying $25k for a PSA 4 '52 Topps Jackie, and I'd be shocked if they are looking to spend $400 on a PSA '52 Topps Joe Black.

The wealthiest have seen their wealth grow substantially in the past year. This is purely the result of people looking to park their money into other asset classes.

I suspect we will see a small burst in the bubble as COVID restrictions ease up, but we don't know when that will be. When it does happen, the drop in prices certainly won't be $GME-esque, that's for sure.

I’ve had this happen a few times recently. I bought a 10 lot of PSA 9 UD Griffey rookies for $500 a few years ago. Just seen that those are approaching 10x in price. One of those wtf moments. Still can’t justify selling them, as I like to hold onto stuff that I got cheap that much more. This same realization can be found on many other purchases as well.

I have a theory and I believe it is sound but nobody likes it on the main board. There are a few unscrupulous sellers who are known to shill bid their auctions or at least not do anything about their consignors shill bidding their auctions and over the last few years there have been thread after thread about them.

The threads all have a common theme: how is X getting this price for this card?

They're not. Nobody ever pays for the card. That's why the card gets listed over and over and over again by the same seller. It never actually sold.

BUT if you have the same card in the same condition and you SEE a sale price for a card that didn't actually sell, you're more than likely to use that sale as a benchmark for pricing your own card, believing that price to be market value.

As a result, you have cheap cards being measured against a price point they should have never reached. Thereby raising the price of that card.

I believe this to be true. Every record sale and outlier is creating these new “base” prices. People seem to have short term memory of those same cards not selling at a fraction of current prices.

Totally Agree and it's been happening for years....It's my guess it's legal/or extremely difficult to prove, Who is the Victim? Is it the Marketplace and Future Perspective Buyers? I don't know seems like a conspiracy to me but I guess without a true victim its hard to charge..idk i'm holding out hope .....but have little to no faith left. We know altering a card isn't a crime. We know TPG's won't back up their grade, we know most major auction houses will not accept returns, we know to expect to see the same card by same auction house to be relisted time and time again always selling or we are led to believe selling at a higher number. Very Odd Or How about a now expected to see norm...it's depressing.

I see no signs of this stopping.....it's Had No Effect on the Prices Rising.

Will it only continue to go up???? Who Knows.... I've been wrong before.

One thing in this hobby will never change, Buyer Beware. That's all you can do, protect yourself, no one else will.

I believe this is exactly why prices have risen. It's all artificial and not representative of any kind of market. On the main board there are a lot of guys who like to play economics chair and make all these points about the FED and interest rates and all this other crap.

Listen, I've been buying cards since I was 8 years old. Federal interest rates have factored into my purchasing power and decision making exactly 0 times.

When more and more celebrities start showing off their high value cards and making it a cool trend. Then it will go even crazier. Not sure if this is going to happen but the trend seems like it will

The vast majority of sales are genuine. Look at all the cards flowing through the auction houses: does anyone really believe that they are not selling the cards? I've done legal work for a few of them going after non-paying bidders. They take it very seriously and on high dollar cards will sue for their vig. I also know quite a few of the buyers and they are actual collectors who are tickled pink over getting their dream cards.

All that said, there is a great deal of speculation going on right now, lots of wannabe flippers. They are going to get their wings clipped badly when the corrections start, unless they have the discipline to set a specific target and sell when it gets there as the prices go up. I personally do not find this M.O. to be compelling, mainly because the transactional costs are so large (10% on up) for anything except a private sale and selling can be a PITA.

All these macro discussions about why remind me of an interview I heard once with Mark Cuban. He was asked about some sort of tax policy and scoffed at its effect on investment: he said that no one ever invests in a company or product based on taxes, they do it to make money and if there is a tax break it is ancillary to the main considerations. It's all BS too: no one 'knows' why things are as they are, just like none of the news organizations 'know' why the market went up or down on any given day. Individual decisionmaking does not aggregate into a collective consciousness, only into a collective outcome. Anyone making macroeconomic prognostications about why Willie Mays cards are going up or down is pulling it out of his ass, and more likely than not is coming to his opinions based on his personal biases and experiences. Of course the 1952 Topps Mantle is worth a fortune...if I own one of the MOFOs. Otherwise, it is overvalued and part of a bubble.

I would disagree that shilling, shenanigans, or skullduggery on the whole is responsible for the upswing of the market that started in 2020. Sure, it exists in pockets - but to take the entire market up? It would have to be so prevalent that you would be hearing a lot more legit stories of people caught doing such things.

Look at PSA's Auction Prices Realized page for some of the more popular vintage cards. It's a good mix, and (at least historically) while it's not inclusive of every single sale, it's a good cross section of what is sold in different places and includes a lot of eBay listings. A lot of people look at sites like that and VCP, and it would probably be pretty easy to string together evidence on multiple sellers who are simply reporting bad data and relisting cards, were that truly happening en masse. It isn't.

What I do to rationalize the prices is to cut and paste the PSA sales data and then delete all of the PWCC sales from the run. I think that gives you a better idea of what is really happening across the board.

If we don't have people taking a week off work and traveling to CHI for the National this summer I think it will drive prices still higher. It costs me about $1500-$2000 to attend a National, give or take, and I curtail my purchases during the lead-up to the show to build my bankroll for the show. If the show is called off, I have no travel expenses, my show bankroll is unnecessary, and the frustration of not going will generate some 'consolation' purchases too.

I've been saying something akin to this for a while. And it's something that until you crunch the numbers you don't realize. Now while I can't speak for the overwhelming majority of America, I can speak for myself. Since the Pandemic started I have not:

Purchased Any New Clothes: No point If I'm not really going anywhere
Booked any Vacations
attended any Games/Concerts
Gone to a Casino

I'd say in total, from all of that I have probably saved, conservatively, $5000. Where did that money go? Cards. In the past calendar year I added 4 more Mantle's to my collection that I wouldn't normally have been able to add. Some went into the bank as well. My point being, People that were/are making a hell of a lot more than me are and continue to be in the same predicament. Our Hobby does not rely on traveling, It doesn't require us to going to an exotic destination, or to an arena/venue. We can all sit in the comfort of our homes, in our Pajamas, look at the cards we want, at anytime, and spend money on them because quite simply we have nothing else to do.

Normalcy will return, people will leave the Hobby, some will stay for sure, and prices will lower. Will we see Pre-Pandemic Prices? Probably Not. But we won't have to worry about a card that we lost at auction last week being listed for 4x its price this week.

This started with basketball cards. Someone making 150k who was already spending money on the hobby suddenly gets 2400, more if he has kids, and can't spend money on vacations, movies, dining, etc. He puts that money into the right players, such as Jordan and LeBron, and now ~8 months later he easily has enough to buy even a low grade 1952 T Mantle before the recent run up after seeing ~10x gains.

There are lots of people whose income hasn't been effected at all and some who have seen a rise (medical related fields for instance). With another 2800+ coming, what are they going to spend it on? I don't see any bursting in the near future.

And many new collectors came back into this hobby. And you know what, collecting card is addictive

I just joined an '86 Fleer hoops FB group, and this effect is front and center.

The cards skyrocket forever, and then a week without increases (or one particular example dropping back a little) and chicken littles come out of the woodwork everywhere. Often data mining to find an outlier that makes their point even more valid. In this case, taking a PSA 8 Jordan sale from PWCC with one of those letter superiority designations (not to mention it was one the best 8s I'd ever seen, and perfectly centered). And using that as the price point of the "high".

And sure, they could be right about this being the peak. But that doesn't change how strong the personal biases are when evaluating the marketplace

Who said it's happening en masse? And why would it have to? There are two sellers that this board has created thread after thread about for YEARS. So, yes, I agree, it takes time to do this. But that time has been passing all along. These sellers are responsible for thousands of listings every month. Those PSA sales, those VCP sales, how closely are you scrutinizing the seller of the item? I bet you'll find a couple names pretty frequently.

So you believe that the market is being manipulated, and prices are moving on the whole only because of a few sellers? OK.

Then do as Adam suggested, and take PWCC, Probstein, and I don’t know Dean‘s maybe out of those sales results and re-baseline everything. If your new averages for particular cards come out way lower, then yes a few sellers could theoretically be doing this, but as to the sales themselves, then to me that would insinuate “en masse” as to their volumes.

I don’t buy it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's not how that would work. You would have to go back to pre-sale times when the prices of cards weren't being manipulated by auctions from sellers who bid their own cards up or allow consignors to bid on their own cards.

Like I said, if I consign a card, let's say a T206 Green Cobb, and I bid that card up to $8,000, but it doesn't actually sell to anybody, the next guy with the same card is going to judge it's value to be $8,000 because they think my cards sold for that.

It's a process that takes a long time. But that time has already passed.

I don't agree price move just because of few seller, more like covid period brings in a LOT of collector, especially the rich, look at the dude bought the 5.2 mil mantle, he's showing off everywhere, on tv, youtube etc... and all his 100 million buck buddies will want to do the same , it just have attracted the rich people into this hobby

There's just a huge demand for sportscard, especially the good ones
just look at the WTB in our BST section, never seen this before.
It is just Hot market, like tesla stocks, like bitcoin. and this hobby is addictive, and American now loves to showoff @ instagram, fb.

I'm talking about the current state of prices. You seem to be suggesting some kind of longer term card price manipulation scheme which seems to happen more often than not in whatever markets you would draw your sales data from. Again, I just don't buy that. It's possible that it happens in some cases, but across the board would be a stretch and difficult to prove. I also don't believe that the influence of a PWCC encourages one-off collectors on a budget to suddenly re-adjust values in their minds to the top of the scale, just because of a few sales that may not have been totally on the level.

Agreed that additional "rich" speculation and other competing demands for collector dollars that are suddenly now not there are likely way more responsible for the boom than massive, covert price manipulation by big dealers and auction houses.

I've been selling into this wave for months and it is real. There are certainly some bogus transactions out there but I've been cleaning house on stuff I never thought I could sell except at massive discounts. My last AH consignment closed in January and the result exceeded my expectations by nearly 100%.

As for the $1200, $2000, or whatever, for someone making a good enough living to responsibly and regularly buy four-figure cards it is a financial blip. I am not wealthy and definitely not in a unique financial position, and I am telling you that the cards I bought in this horrible year had nothing to do with a stimulus check. I didn't even qualify to get one. For me it was not paying for all of the other leisure activities. I saved far more than $1200 just not going out to dinner over the last year and a multiple of that not going on any of the vacations or trips we planned. Hell, dinner and show for my wife and me is $300 or more, and a week in HI will cost us $5K. I go to a couple of concerts every summer. In 2019 summer I went to see Heart and Joan Jett (great show, BTW) with decent, not great, seats at the Hollywood Bowl and between that and dinner I dropped over $400. My floor seats for Green Day in 2017 plus dinner were over $400 for the pair:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...SizeRender.jpg

And worth every dime!

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...tthead%202.gif

My wife's salary got cut 20% at the start of this and we didn't even feel it because our spending dropped 35%. No dinners out, no maid, no trips, terminated gym memberships, no wardrobe since we are not going to formal offices, no commute expenses, no food at work costs, etc. That's where the money is. Plus, WTF else am I going to do with it, put it into the bank at 0.1%?

Great Shot of the stage! I'm definitely looking forward to going back to concerts again! As a side note, It usually involves me traveling a state or so over. For the price of one at the Garden, I can get better tickets in Philadelphia, plus pay for my gas, parking and a Cheesesteak!

More of echoing what I was saying earlier. Spending is down for everyone, might as well throw it into our Hobby! I cannot speak to the bogus transactions part, but at this point with the way certain prices are going, I might have to sell cards which I always said were "Unsellable" I have to get the money for some of the other cards I want somehow!

it was amazing! We were right next to the mosh pit. I am too old for that nonsense but it was a blast anyway. At 6'4" I am fine in a crowd like that, but my wife who is a foot shorter gets claustrophobic and refuses to go, so I have to go with my daughter, who is 5'10" and can throw an elbow like a power forward. A few more from the show:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...zeRender_3.jpg
https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...zeRender_4.jpg

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Bowman...IAAOSwZylgHI8t


How can this be explained ??????

This card has consistently sold between $5,500-7,500 of recent in 7 Grade now with 2 days left this $40,000 ???????

This one takes the cake......how does this make sense??

In this very thread is the same phenomenon I described above.

Can't be explained
There's a BIN for 18k up there psa 7
Nobody is paying 40k for sgc 7

I think you're right about that.

It’s my opinion that this same card will be relisted by the same auction within 1 to 3 months from now. Investors aren’t stupid or blind the fundamentals are not there for this said price. I understand momentum, this reminds me of GameStop. That’s just me that’s just my opinion I could be dead wrong. This card is a beautiful card in my personal opinion it could go between 10 and 15k but 40 with two days to go is pie in the sky in my book

I’m sorry I don’t trust this number as a true Value of said card.

Someone please shut me up if I’m off base but I adimentqly think the contrary.

Guys....the 40 k for that Mantle is out of line. But you're using some wrong numbers and not including all the details (that explain things a little more).

The '52 B Mantle in PSA 7 has never been 5500-7500 recently....the last one sold for 8400 in late December, and a month and a half is a lifetime ago in this market w/ what's happened with Mantle, Aaron, and Mays since.

The one listed for 18 k BIN is a really weak PSA 7. Four bad corners (for that grade), t/b centering not that great, print mark on the front. It just sold today too.

The 40 k one has the perfect centering, eye appeal, and PWCC-S thing that people have been paying up for forever.

40 k is still obviously very high for it, but it's not the impossible aberration that it's being made out to be

See that's what I'm talking about. You say that people have been paying extra for a certain classification from a certain seller. But do you know anyone personally who has?

I know some of us are giddy over this current trend. But the higher they rise the harder they will fall. Passionate collectors (like us) are being taken advantage of by these outside investors. Collectors are unknowingly protecting these investors bottom line by aggressively purchasing cards at any price point. Our nostalgic passion is being exploited, like an addict looking for a fix. Imagine if people had this much passion for owning a physical share of GM or Coca-Cola.

IMO you cash in or ignore the noise. This isn’t our childhood hobby anymore. It has been hijacked by Wall Street.

At this point, IMO "PWCC" means "ignore this data, it is probably BS"

The PSA 7 rookie sold for 115 k, so maybe the price isn't too far out of line. Time will tell if these prices are real or can hold. We went thru this in 2016, but this is much bigger affecting pretty much everything.

If 52 bowman is WTF
how do you explain this by a member


PSA 3 at that moment is around 12k, member here sold it for 29k, it is a VERY VERY nice3
same goes with the 52 bowman. it is overprice but someone might really pay for the centering(i'm not a center freak)

https://net54baseball.com/showthread...+mickey+mantle

52T Mays PSA 5.5 did $35,700 last night. My centered PSA 5 cost me $2900 in 2019, slightly overpaying during that time. With that rate of change and some extrapolation, retirement in my 40s seems justifiable. Hoping the investor boys keep this train moving for the sake of my retirement and GT3 fund.

The longer this goes, the more skeptical I become. I saw two examples occur last night that make me feel this way, both compliments of PWCC. First off, a PSA 3 '52 Topps Jackie Robinson sells for just north of $16k?! Yes, I get the idea that it has supposedly been undervalued for a long time and such, but seriously?

Also last night, I watched a PSA 3 '56 Topps Mays go for $616. That card could have been had for $150-175 for years. Right after that auction ended (another PWCC special), I watched a BIN which was listed at $399 obo get snapped up. Don't get me wrong, I'm not my dad here upset that bread isn't 5 cents a loaf anymore, but even $399 is quite a bit for that card. But that's how it happens. PWCC runs up an auction to a ridiculous level, so that a card that was somewhat overpriced suddenly doesn't look so bad, and it becomes the new normal for that card. This is now happening with PSA 3s! I have resisted wearing the tin foil hat and have shaken my head when I have seen other members indicate they are laying low for a while until this calms down, but even I am starting to think that might not be such a bad idea.

I really don't know what to think, and I may just stick to commons for my sets for a while and see what happens.

edit to add: I have a lot of cards that have risen in value dramatically, but I would sacrifice that in a heartbeat to be able to add stars to my collection at reasonable prices.

I was also watching that PSA 3 52 Jackie with the wtf thoughts as it finished. If that was a legit sale, there are some true dumb dumb entering the room. I am doing exactly as you mentioned, only searching for common set fillers until things take a shift (which they will).

On the bright side, the shift from big card purchases has reopened my eyes to some toy spending.

A PSA 3 1953 Topps Paige closed over $1500 (allegedly). A year ago it was a $250-$300 card.

I sold off one of my grotesquely appreciated cards yesterday and will be taking additional profits in the near future.